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With NFL Week 16 — Championship Week — is upon us, here are my quarterback fantasy football rankings.
Jalen Hurts is a high-end QB1 this week, just one spot out of the position’s top five.
Pete Carroll’s play-calling has kneecapped Russell Wilson’s fantasy upside.
Marcus Mariota’s rushing floor is available for those in desperate need of a fill-in QB this week. UPDATE: Derek Carr looks ready to play but should not be anywhere near a starting lineup in season-long leagues.
Cam Newton cannot be trusted.
Week 16’s Tiered Quarterback Rankings
Rank | High-Floor/High-Ceiling QB1s | Team | Opponent | Breakdown |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | High-Floor/High-Ceiling QB1s | Team | Opponent | Breakdown |
1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | ATL | Atlanta is the most fantasy-friendly defense for opposing signal caller to face*. |
2 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | TEN | Great match-up and the Pack is trying to keep their one-game lead on the rest of the NFC. |
3 | Kyler Murray | ARI | SF | SF is Top 5 in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks*. |
4 | Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | A win over Denver elevates them out of the AFC West's last place spot. |
5 | Josh Allen | BUF | NE | New England does a good job of slowing the Bills' offense but this team is on fire and John Brown may be returning. Pats' CB Stephon Gilmore is out for the year. |
6 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | at DAL | Even at 4-9-1, Philly still has a chance to win the NFC East. This is a must-win game and it's a great match-up. |
7 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | NYG | Tough match-up but his rushing floor has returned. |
8 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | CIN | Outstanding match-up. Watson should be able to get the job done. The Texans, at 4-10, don't have anything to play for though. Watson could be pulled late in the game. |
9 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | at GB | This game will either be competitive or the Titans will be playing catch-up. Both outcomes bode well for Tannehill's prospects. |
10 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | at NYJ | The Browns can steal the No. 2 playoff seed from the Steelers if they crush the lowly Jets this week and beat the Steelers next week and Cleveland's offense has been on fire as of late. |
11 | Tom Brady | TB | at DET | Assuming Stafford plays, there's a small shot at a shootout. Great match-up, defensively, for Brady. |
12 | Drew Brees | NO | MIN | Great bounce-back spot here. |
Rank | High-Floor/High-Ceiling QB2s | Team | Opponent | Breakdown |
13 | Teddy Bridgewater | CAR | at WAS | Tough match-up but this offense can hang with anyone. |
14 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | at NO | Cousins will be forced to throw in this one. |
15 | Russell Wilson | SEA | LAR | Toggling through the appropriate drop-down menus on SharpFootball.com's Situational Run:Pass Ratios page, one can see that Seattle's 1st-half, early-down passing rate plummeted to just 46% last week. It's no accident that Pete Carroll received his contract extension in early November before the team suddenly turned to it's atrocious run-first ways. Russell Wilson cannot be trusted in the fantasy football championship game. Brutal match-up. |
16 | Andy Dalton | DAL | PHI | Low-key shootout potential here. If Ezekiel Elliot sits, Dalton's passing game volume should increase. |
Rank | High-Floor/Capped-Ceiling QB2s | Team | Opponent | Breakdown |
17 | Philip Rivers | IND | at PIT | Injuries have compromised Pittsburgh's top notch defense. Rivers can be trusted to retain his high-floor fantasy value. |
18 | Matthew Stafford | DET | TB | Tough match-up but Detroit will have to throw here. |
19 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | at JAX | True to form, Trubisky has been up-and-down in recent weeks, despite a slew of stellar match-ups. The erratic passer cannot be trusted in Championship Week, even in a great match-up. He's a good contrarian DFS option though. |
20 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | IND | Roethlisberger's arm is shot and this is a very tough match-up. |
21 | Derek Carr | LV | MIA | Nursing a groin injury, Carr will be largely immobile and Miami has one of the most dominant secondaries in the league. |
22 | Matt Ryan | ATL | at KC | Tough match-up and Julio Jones' status is entirely up in the air. |
23 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | at LV | Very high floor -- could produce a 20-point fantasy game here in a good match-up. |
24 | Jared Goff | LAR | at SEA | Decent match-up but there's a good chance that this game devolves into a defense-oriented, ground'n'pound game. |
Rank | Low-Floor/Capped-Ceiling QB3s | Team | Opponent | Breakdown |
25 | C.J. Beathard | SF | at ARI | The potential return of George Kittle could make things interesting. |
26 | Cam Newton | NE | BUF | Too up and down to trust. |
27 | Daniel Jones | NYG | at BAL | Far too boom/bust for Week 16. |
28 | Mike Glennon | JAX | CHI | Brutal match-up. |
29 | Ryan Finley | CIN | at HOU | DFS only. |
30 | Dwayne Haskins | WAS | CAR | Good match-up, bad decision-maker. |
31 | Drew Lock | DEN | at LAC | Lock will be forced to throw here but he's impossible to trust. |
32 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | CLE | Do not trust a Jet in Week 16. |