Week 12’s Monday night football showdown is a matchup between the Seahawks and Eagles. Here’s a look at who’s primed for a big fantasy night and who’s not.
Russell Wilson and his top notch wide receiver duo, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, head to Philadelphia for a bout with the Eagles’ one-dimensional defense. Philly’s defensive strength lies entirely in its pass rush, generating pressure of quarterbacks and the leagues’ 4th-highest rate (25.2%). Outside of that mark, their defensive line routinely allows running backs to trample them (1,334 rushing yards — 13th-highest and 15 rushing touchdowns — 4th-most) while their secondary gator-arms passes thrown their way (29 passes defend — 2nd-fewest and three interceptions — the fewest). Russell Wilson and his 2nd-ranked 5.8% Completion Percentage Above Expectation should have little issue returning Top 5 value this week.
Downfield perimeter threat, D.K. Metcalf, will do battle with top tier cornerback Darius Slay but fantasy managers can rest easily, knowing that Metcalf already posted outstanding results (4/6-92-1) against the strikingly similar Stephon Gilmore of the New England Patriots. Both Slay and Gilmore are highly athletic, big-bodied corners that are typically able to bully opposing receivers. Metcalf, chiseled from stone, bearing the feet of Hermes, can hang with anyone. He remains an elite WR1 every week.
Tyler Lockett, .5PPR’s overall WR5, similarly offers a can’t-miss Top 12 status on a weekly basis. While it’s fair to point out the highs and lows of Lockett’s 2020 box scores, Philadelphia’s likelihood of sledgehammering Seattle’s defense increases the odds of a pass-happy game script. In fantasy football, volume is king. Trust the slot receiver to provide a studly outing.
No. 3 WR David Moore sees enough action to warrant DFS consideration, as well as deep-league, multi-flex viability.
WR Freddie Swain is not likely to be fantasy-relevant.
Philadelphia is allowing the 2nd-most .5PPR production opposing tight ends at a rate of 11.7 PPG and with Greg Olsen landing on Injured Reserve, both Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister are on the streaming radar. Dissly has the personal relationship with Russell Wilson, and the snap count, in his favor. Hollister has moderate talent on his. Ultimately, snap share matters most so Dissly is the preferred play for those in need of a tight end streamer. Hollister is still on the streaming map though.
Chris Carson was back to being a full participant in practice on Friday, indicating it’s all-systems-go for Seattle’s lead back. As mentioned above, Philly has struggled to contain rushing attacks, allowing a full rushing touchdown per game to RBs — 5th-highest mark in the league. Carson is this week’s premier RB2.
Carlos Hyde has a chance to return flex value as Seattle’s change of pace back. With Travis Homer out (wrist/thumb/knee), it’s possible DeeJay Dallas sees some passing game work but he should ultimately be expected to warm the bench.
Update 11/30/2020, 2:20pm PST: Per Inside the Birds, Eagles owner, Jeffrey Lurie has instructed head coach Doug Pederson to bench QB Carson Wentz in favor of rookie QB Jalen Hurts should Wentz experiences in-game “struggles”. Consider Wentz’s floor as nonexistent while his match-up-based ceiling remains intact. Hurts is a similar zero-floor/high-ceiling option, with serious upside in DFS.
Although an impending split between head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Carson Wentz is likely on the horizon, they ride together into another can’t miss opportunity against a Seattle Seahawks defense leading the league in in passing yards allowed (3,437), despite 28 of the 32 NFL teams already having their Week 12 statistics added to this list. Although Wentz’s ceiling, based on the match-up appears quite high, his floor is terribly low. Should Wentz struggle, it’s likely the Eagles would bench him for rookie QB Jalen Hurts, who took some first-team reps this week in practice. Hurts is expected to have packages drawn up for him, regardless of Wentz’s play as well. Given the Eagles’ propensity for falling apart at the seams, Wentz can only be trusted as a mid-to-low QB2 but he has easy access to a Top 12 finish, given the match-up. Hurts can be fired up as a savvy, if long shot contrarian play in DFS.
Since his return from injury in Week 8, rookie downfield receiver Jalen Reagor leads the team in .5PPR points scored. Against a Seattle secondary allowing 44.1 .5PPR PPG — over 10 points more than the next closest team (Dallas — 33.7), he’s got a good shot at big numbers in what should be a back-and-forth shootout. Fire up Reagor as a high-end flex option with long-touchdown potential, albeit with the same floor-related negatives as Carson Wentz.
X-receiver Travis Fulgham’s pre and post-bye splits are likely to be the most variant of any receiver in fantasy. A dominant presence earlier in the year, Fulgham is now engulfed in the coverage of the opposing team’s top cornerback — but that isn’t necessarily different than it was pre-bye. Back then the team was missing both starting tight ends, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, as well as the aforementioned stud rookie Jalen Reagor. With Fulgham seeing the toughest match-up, there’s been no need for Wentz to force the ball his way, now that Goedert, Reagor, and the washed up Alshon Jeffery are back in the mix. Against Seattle, that may be a different story though, given their overall lack of talent. Consider Fulgham a severe boom/bust flex play.
Throughtout the season, opposing slot receivers have produced at-or-above expectations against Seattle. To name a few, Russell Gage (9/12-114), CeeDee Lamb (5/7-65), Adam Thielen (9/13-80-2), and Larry Fitzgerald (8/8-62 and 8/10-62). Slot receiver Greg Ward can accordingly be started as a high-floor flex play.
With Zach Ertz highly unlikely to play this week, tight end Dallas Goedert gets another week of sublime usage to himself. Current No. 2 tight end Richard Rodgers will see somewhere between 25-35% of the snaps, but is unlikely to take much away from Goedert. Consider Goedert a mid-tier TE1 this week.
Like it’s Week 12 opponent, Seattle’s front-seven is tied for the 5th-most rushing touchdowns allowed per game (1.0), which bodes well for Miles Sanders. There was some concern over Sanders’ red zone workload with touchdown-vulture Jordan Howard being signed to the practice squad. Howard has not yet been promoted to the active roster though, so Sanders should have himself a day against Seattle’s lowly front-seven. He’s a Top 12 play at the position this week. Change of pace back Boston Scott warrants multi-flex consideration in deep leagues. His snap share since Sanders returned from injury two weeks ago has been decent.
Corey Clement is not likely to be fantasy-relevant outside of contrarian DFS lineups as a potential low yardage touchdown scorer.