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Ticket Guardian 500: Power Rankings

Kyle Busch has been the most consistent driver so far

NASCAR: Can-Am 500 Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The rule I have implemented for myself are:

  1. I will not pick a driver more than 10 times this season
  2. Due to #1 these are “Power Rankings” (in quotations), I’m looking for value here

My general format for my power rankings:

  • Top 2 picks will generally be the favorites, the ones who should be top 5 or top 10 finishes
  • #3 and #4 will be your riskier picks, could be top 5 or bottom 15
  • Pick #5 is the dark horse

Race Information

Race: Ticket Guardian 500
Laps: 304
Date: March 10th
Venue: ISM Raceway
2018 Winner: Kevin Harvick 2:53:13
Broadcast: Fox


ISM Raceway opened in 1964. It runs at 1 mile low bank asphalt track with turns curving between 8-11 degrees. Home to the Ticket Guardian 500 and Can-Am 500 later in the playoffs, the desert is surrounded by Estrella Mountains. The introduction of a dog-leg coupled with bumping up the angle slightly on two turns to allow for more side by side racing due to the speed around the turns and multi-grooves.

NASCAR: Can-Am 500 Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Power Rankings

The Favorites

Kevin Harvick (2ns selection this year) — Back to back 4th place finishes coming into Arizona is much like last year where he came in fresh off back to back wins (and won here). So like last year he will finish 4th here? I’ll take it!

Kyle Busch (1st selection this year) — On the first race at Phoenix (there is a 2nd one in the playoffs), Kyle has averaged a third place finish (finishing in the top four) each of the last three years here. He is the only driver with top six finishes in all three races this year.

High Risk / High Reward

Daniel Suarez (1st selection this year) — He finished 8th here last year and 7th here his rookie year. His last two races (10th and 17th) were much better than his 33rd finish at the wreck filled Daytona.

Erik Jones (1st selection this year) — He is much like Daniel finishing 9th last year and 8th his rookie year just one spot behind Daniel in both races. He has landed in the top 15 each of the three races this year.

The Dark Horse

William Byron (1st selection this year) — Finishing 12th here as a rookie last year, he enters this tournament being in the top 22 each race this year. It’s not electric but it could be much worse.

2019 Results

Favorite: Avg Finish 13th (35th Percent)
High Risk/High Reward: Avg Finish 14th (35th Percent)
Dark Horse: Avg Finish 15th (39th Percent)