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O’Reilly Auto Parts 500: Power Rankings

The Busch Brothers have a strong record in Texas

NASCAR: AAA Texas 500-Practice Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

I apologize for the lack of picks last week and thank the people who pointed it out. I’m coming in with a vengeance this week to make sure all five picks finish #1 (which I’m sure is possible somehow)

The rule I have implemented for myself are:

  1. I will not pick a driver more than 10 times this season
  2. Due to #1 these are “Power Rankings” (in quotations), I’m looking for value here

My general format for my power rankings:

  • Top 2 picks will generally be the favorites, the ones who should be top 5 or top 10 finishes
  • #3 and #4 will be your riskier picks, could be top 5 or bottom 15
  • Pick #5 is the dark horse

Race Information

Race: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Laps: 334
Date: March 31st
Venue: Texas Motor Speedway
2018 Winner: Kyle Busch (3:32:07)
Broadcast: Fox


Texas Motor Speedway. Located in Fort Worth, Texas, this 1.5 mile quad-oval asphalt track was built and opened in 1996. It features this race as well as one playoff race and has different banked turns on 1 and 2 (20 degrees) vs. 3 and 4 (24 degrees). Jimmie Johnson holds the most wins here (6).

Power Rankings

The Favorites

Joey Logano (2nd selection this year) — He should be the favorite here by a mile. He has by and large been a top six finisher here each time for four years. He averages a fourth place finish. He finished 19th last week but when you look at his recent races outside the top 10 he rebounds with a 1st or 2nd place finish the next week.

Kyle Busch (2nd selection this year) — Wins here two of the last three years might be the best shot at surpassing Joey. He did finish 15th in the between year so it’s not a unblemished record. Add to that his two wins in the last three races and he certainly has a powerful combination here.

High Risk / High Reward

Kurt Busch (1st selection this year) — He has top ten finishes each of the last three years at Texas. Four of his six races this season have been top eight finishes.

Jimmie Johnson (2nd selection this year) — He finished 4th here in 2016 and won in 2017 before a rough 35th place last year. He has two finishes inside the top ten this year but I am trusting more in the six wins on this course.

The Dark Horse

William Byron (1st selection this year) — He finished 10th here last year as a rookie. This year he has no finishes inside the top 15 but he does also has not finished outside the top 25, consistency is key.

2019 Results

Favorite: Avg Finish 11th (29th Percent)
High Risk/High Reward: Avg Finish 15th (40th Percent)
Dark Horse: Avg Finish 20th (52nd Percent)


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