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I apologize for the lack of picks last week and thank the people who pointed it out. I’m coming in with a vengeance this week to make sure all five picks finish #1 (which I’m sure is possible somehow)
The rule I have implemented for myself are:
- I will not pick a driver more than 10 times this season
- Due to #1 these are “Power Rankings” (in quotations), I’m looking for value here
My general format for my power rankings:
- Top 2 picks will generally be the favorites, the ones who should be top 5 or top 10 finishes
- #3 and #4 will be your riskier picks, could be top 5 or bottom 15
- Pick #5 is the dark horse
Race Information
Race: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Laps: 334
Date: March 31st
Venue: Texas Motor Speedway
2018 Winner: Kyle Busch (3:32:07)
Broadcast: Fox
Course
Texas Motor Speedway. Located in Fort Worth, Texas, this 1.5 mile quad-oval asphalt track was built and opened in 1996. It features this race as well as one playoff race and has different banked turns on 1 and 2 (20 degrees) vs. 3 and 4 (24 degrees). Jimmie Johnson holds the most wins here (6).
Power Rankings
The Favorites
Joey Logano (2nd selection this year) — He should be the favorite here by a mile. He has by and large been a top six finisher here each time for four years. He averages a fourth place finish. He finished 19th last week but when you look at his recent races outside the top 10 he rebounds with a 1st or 2nd place finish the next week.
Last year at Texas, five drivers swept the top 7!
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) March 27, 2019
- Kevin Harvick - Erik Jones - Ryan Blaney - Joey Logano - Kurt Busch pic.twitter.com/sGw9NTybpL
Kyle Busch (2nd selection this year) — Wins here two of the last three years might be the best shot at surpassing Joey. He did finish 15th in the between year so it’s not a unblemished record. Add to that his two wins in the last three races and he certainly has a powerful combination here.
High Risk / High Reward
Kurt Busch (1st selection this year) — He has top ten finishes each of the last three years at Texas. Four of his six races this season have been top eight finishes.
Top 10 Active MENCS Driver Ratings at @TXMotorSpeedway
— UNB! Fantasy NASCAR (@NASCARStatsUNB) March 27, 2019
Johnson-102.9
Kyle Busch-101.3
Harvick-96.3
Elliott-95.6
Truex Jr.-94.6
Erik Jones-93.1
Kurt Busch-89.9
Keselowski-89.2
Logano-88.0
Hamlin-88.0
*Ratings compiled from 2005-18 races (28 total) among active drivers at Texas pic.twitter.com/tlLxaRNCRU
Jimmie Johnson (2nd selection this year) — He finished 4th here in 2016 and won in 2017 before a rough 35th place last year. He has two finishes inside the top ten this year but I am trusting more in the six wins on this course.
The Dark Horse
William Byron (1st selection this year) — He finished 10th here last year as a rookie. This year he has no finishes inside the top 15 but he does also has not finished outside the top 25, consistency is key.
2019 Results
Favorite: Avg Finish 11th (29th Percent)
High Risk/High Reward: Avg Finish 15th (40th Percent)
Dark Horse: Avg Finish 20th (52nd Percent)
Poll
Which Manufacturer wins the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500?
This poll is closed
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100%
Toyota
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0%
Ford
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0%
Chevrolet