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NFBC Average Draft Position Analysis - Part 1

Ray takes another look at the early NFBC ADP rankings from NESN.

By Ray Guilfoyle
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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I am back again taking a look at the NFBC average draft position (ADP) rankings that are published over at NESN.com. Below you will find the updated Top 50 NFBC rankings with their average pick (Avg Pick), minimum pick (Min Pick) or earliest the player was drafted, and maximum pick (Max Pick) or the latest said player was drafted.

You can find the rest of the NFBC ADP rankings in the link below:

NFBC ADP

Today, I will offer some thoughts on some of the individual position ADP rankings:

Catcher

NFBC Catcher Rankings

  • For some reason, NFBC doesn't rank Cubs catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber as a catcher, so he is missing from their catcher rankings.
  • The second ranked catcher behind Giants catcher Buster Posey is Brewers backstop Jonathan Lucroy, followed by Royals Salvador Perez and Yankees Brian McCann. Lucroy is coming off an injury-filled 2015 and will have to show that he is over the concussion or he will drop in these rankings.
  • One guy who I thought would be ranked higher is Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco, although he is coming off hip surgery, and catchers do use their hips. Maybe I am too high on him coming off that injury.
  • The surprise ranking for me is Marlins catcher Jacob (J.T.) Realmuto. He comes in ranked as the 10th catcher off draft board, which seems high. Then again, he has double digit power and will probably steal double digit bags in 2016. Sleeper!!!!

First Base

  • No real surprises in the first base rankings really. Paul Goldschmidt is at one, Anthony Rizzo is 2, Miguel Cabrera is 3 and so on.
  • I take that back. Reds first baseman Joey Votto comes in as the sixth first baseman off draft boards, which seems a little low to me. he is being drafted after Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu and Chris Davis, along with the three mentioned above.
  • Should Votto be drafted ahead of Abreu? I think so. Maybe even ahead of Miggy if you think the decline is real.
  • Twins first baseman Byung-ho Park is the 17th first baseman drafted in the 15 team NFBC leagues. ZiPS projects him to hit around .260 with 27 home runs and 84 RBI this season, which is right around what I projected for him if I remember correctly.

Second Base

  • My top ranked second baseman, Brian Dozier, is the fourth second baseman off draft boards in the fifth round of the NFBC drafts, and I think he represents great value there. ZiPS projects him to go 90-24-70-14 this season. Not many second baseman will put up those counting stats in 2016.
  • Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano is the third second baseman off draft boards, and I think he is being drafted based on his name value right now. Yes, I am down on him.
  • Second base appears to be a pretty deep position this season, and I like a lot of guys in the 10-25 range, including Starlin Castro, Neil Walker, Chris Owings among others.
I will address the other positions in a separate post.

Here is the latest Top 50 NFBC ADP rankings (15 team leagues):

Rank

Player

Team

Pos

Avg Pick

Min Pick

Max Pick

1

Mike Trout

LAA

CF

1.62

1

3

2

Paul Goldschmidt

Ari

1B

2.54

1

5

3

Bryce Harper

Was

RF

2.69

1

4

4

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

SP

4.08

1

8

5

Josh Donaldson

Tor

3B

5

2

8

6

Carlos Correa

Hou

SS

7.23

4

11

7

Nolan Arenado

Col

3B

8.08

5

13

8

Manny Machado

Bal

3B

9

6

17

9

Kris Bryant

ChC

3B

9.77

4

14

10

Giancarlo Stanton

Mia

RF

11.23

7

16

11

Anthony Rizzo

ChC

1B

11.77

8

18

12

Jose Altuve

Hou

2B

12.54

8

18

13

Max Scherzer

Was

SP

12.92

6

28

14

Miguel Cabrera

Det

1B

14

6

20

15

Andrew McCutchen

Pit

CF

14.23

5

19

16

A.J. Pollock

Ari

CF

15.69

11

20

17

Mookie Betts

Bos

CF

17.77

16

21

18

Jake Arrieta

ChC

SP

19.54

15

26

19

Dee Gordon

Mia

2B

19.92

14

29

20

Buster Posey

SF

C

20.77

14

27

21

Edwin Encarnacion

Tor

1B

21.15

11

30

22

George Springer

Hou

RF

23.08

19

27

23

Jose Abreu

CWS

1B

23.23

18

30

24

Starling Marte

Pit

LF

23.31

19

30

25

Chris Sale

CWS

SP

25.38

16

31

6

Jose Bautista

Tor

RF

27.69

17

34

27

Chris Davis

Bal

1B

27.77

18

39

28

Zack Greinke

Ari

SP

28.92

9

36

29

Madison Bumgarner

SF

SP

29.38

26

33

30

Jose Fernandez

Mia

SP

30.38

16

39

31

Kyle Schwarber

ChC

LF

32.23

21

48

32

Matt Harvey

NYM

SP

34.38

27

45

33

Charlie Blackmon

Col

CF

34.77

24

51

34

David Price

Bos

SP

35.15

23

43

35

Gerrit Cole

Pit

SP

35.38

30

42

36

Joey Votto

Cin

1B

35.54

25

56

37

Jacob deGrom

NYM

SP

37.85

25

46

38

J.D. Martinez

Det

RF

38.62

23

59

39

Corey Kluber

Cle

SP

40.46

32

50

40

Stephen Strasburg

Was

SP

40.46

28

51

41

Dallas Keuchel

Hou

SP

41.92

32

53

42

Yoenis Cespedes

NYM

LF

42.62

27

58

43

Nelson Cruz

Sea

RF

43.54

24

60

44

Ryan Braun

Mil

RF

43.85

24

61

45

Todd Frazier

CWS

3B

46.54

36

63

46

Noah Syndergaard

NYM

SP

47.77

41

64

47

Chris Archer

TB

SP

48.54

42

63

48

Felix Hernandez

Sea

SP

48.92

40

59

49

Justin Upton

SD

LF

50.08

41

57

50

Carlos Carrasco

Cle

SP

50.15

36

68