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I hate shooting guards. If they were a category, I'd punt them.
Why?
Because they're usually only good for 2 stats: 3s and PTS.
Now yes, in the electronic game, you have a handful of truly elite players with SG eligibility (Curry, Harden, Kyrie). But for the most part, the swings I'm mostly interested in are in the SF department.
But I gotta rank all 5 positions. So here we go...
(NOTE: There are quite a LOT of Fantasy Basketball players with dual eligibility. Considering there are only 5 positions to worry about in total, position scarcity is not super relevant in the NBA.)
3 SGs I don't hate:
1. Steph Curry, GSW
2. James Harden, HOU
3. Kyrie Irving, CLE
These 3 are the best, multi-cat, bonafide NBA superstar shooting guards in the biz. They'll help you in every single category. (And I'm not counting turnovers, cuz that's the stupidest cat in Fantasy Basketball.) If you get lucky enough to snag one of these 3 guys in any format, consider yourself lucky.
5 SGs flirting with superstardom:
4. Dwyane Wade, MIA
5. Kobe Bryant, LAL
6. Goran Dragic, PHX
7. Nicolas Batum, POR
8. Kawhi Leonard, SAS
These 5 SGs are very high on the reward/risk matrix of outcomes. Kobe and D-Wade are older players with elite pasts, but questionable futures. In their current situations, they could end up as Top 10 Fantasy performers, or outside the Top 100. Depending on your threshold for risk, they could be strong targets in a 1-year league (obviously way less value in keepers/dynasties). As for Kawhi and Goran, they put up truly elite numbers last year respectively, but Phoenix is a team in perpetual transition in the post-Nash years, and the Spurs' Popovich is the most unconventional coach in the league. Their roles could change wildly - or not at all. They're both great players, but there is risk there. As for Batum, he's one of my favourite swings. But he's never quite met the lofty Fantasy expectations bestowed on him the last several years.
(NOTE: When possible, I never draft SGs high. There are so many SGs that provide value in the middle rounds, and so much volatility at the top.)
Good value:
9. Klay Thompson, GSW
10. Eric Bledsoe, ?
11. Monta Ellis, DAL
12. Bradley Beal, WAS
13. Wes Matthews, POR
14. Victor Oladipo, ORL
15. DeMar DeRozan, TOR
16. Gordon Hayward, UTA
17. Jimmy Butler, CHI
18. Trevor Ariza, HOU
19. Kevin Martin, MIN
I'd be perfectly happy not drafting an SG until we get to this section. Outside of the 3 elite, this middle section of 2-guard options has the potential to provide the same value as the fringe superstar section. Opportunity and touches dictate everything in the electronic game. And these 11 players (Bledsoe signing pending) are great targets that won't cost you an arm and a leg. Bradley Beal, in particular, is a player with even more upside than he has shown us... If I'm drafting a team from scratch though, these are the 11 names in my draft queue.
The risks:
20. Lance Stephenson, CHA
21. Tyreke Evans, NO
22. Kyle Korver, ATL
23. Joe Johnson, BRK
24. Jamal Crawford, LAC
25. Andre Iguodola, GSW
26. George Hill, IND
27. Eric Gordon, NO
28. Manu Ginobili, SAS
29. Patrick Beverley, HOU
30. Arron Afflalo, DEN
My first year playing Fantasy Basketball, I won 20/22 weeks, won the championship and basically lapped every other team in the standings. My secret: I got a little lucky. Listen folks, I'm as much of a ringer as you can get in the Fantasy Sports world, but we all need a little luck. This latest section indicates the rest of the SGs I have included in my initial Top 100 rankings. Each has a track record of elite performance AND abject failure. Outside of my top 19 listed SGs, I really think it's close to being a crapshoot. You figure Crawford is always gonna find a way to score, and Korver was hitting 3s coming out of the womb, but there are so many question marks with role, injuries, past performance, etc, that it's extremely difficult to accurately predict players drafted in the later rounds. I will say that all the guys in this next section do have a track record - for whatever that's worth. I'd be much more willing to draft one of them in a 1-year league than a rookie that may/may not get any minutes, but the truth is that there WILL be SGs that come out of nowhere, and crack the top 30. (It's harder for players to come out of nowhere and become top 20 options, but that's obviously not out of the question.) Again, I don't think too highly of SGs. So beyond getting somebody in my top 19, I'd be perfectly happy to just scour the waiver wire all year for SG gems. But here are a few more options above for some intriguing nuggets of Fantasy goodness...
Bonus options:
Gerald Green, PHX
JJ Redick, LAC
Brandon Knight, MIL
Jeremy Lin, LAL
JR Smith, NYK
Nik Stauskas, SAC
Terrence Ross, TOR
Beyond my top 30, it's personal preference. I've highlighted a few players here that could provide sneaky value. I won't call them sleepers, but if you did, I won't tell anyone... ;)
Gerald Green has shown flashes of brilliance, but lacks consistency in that fluid system. Redick is a great shooter, but how many touches will he get? Knight can play, but will Kendall Marshall usurp him in the depth chart? Linsanity depends on Kobe's medical alert tweets. JR Smith never met a shot he didn't like, but also frequents self-destruction. Stauskas was amazing in college, but can he make the leap to the pro game? Terrence Ross tied a franchise record with 51 points in a game last year, but completely disappeared in the playoffs...
In case you missed it, I published my early Top 100 Rankings last week and you can find them in the link below:
Early Top 100 Rankings for 2014-2015
So that's what I got, e-ballers. Thank you for all of you adding me every day on Twitter. Makes a gal feel special. (SECRET TIP: Target PGs in your draft instead of SGs. They are MUCH more difficult to find in the FA pool mid-season...)
Bobman