Fake Teams - 2022 Fantasy Baseball: Catcher WeekThe Key Source For Incisive Fantasy Sports Analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50153/fake-fav.png2022-01-23T09:40:28-05:00http://www.faketeams.com/rss/stream/226387582022-01-23T09:40:28-05:002022-01-23T09:40:28-05:00Staff Post: Catchers to avoid in 2022 fantasy baseball
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<figcaption>Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers tell you who to avoid at backstop in 2022 fantasy baseball.</p> <p id="FcDPtb">After our catchers to avoid, Catcher Week is over! But never fear, First Base Week begins in earnest tomorrow morning! So be sure to circle back around for our consensus rankings, dropping bright and early on Monday.</p>
<p id="cICa1x">All catcher ADP data is derived from NFBC 50 drafts, since December 28th—that gives us the most recent 20 drafts to examine.</p>
<h3 id="xFlPld">Travis d’Arnaud, <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a>
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<p id="506dta"><em>NFBC ADP: 212.70</em><br><em>Draft rank: 12th</em></p>
<p id="LAuz7v">When healthy, d’Arnaud has been a solid bat. His 162-game pace over the past three seasons is 25 home runs, 101 RBI, and a .258 average. Not bad at all, especially for a catcher. The issue is health, and it’s a big issue. d’Arnaud played just 60 games last season. His career high is 112 games back in 2017. That’s too much injury risk for a top 10 option at catcher. I’m drafting a different position at his current ADP and waiting even deeper in the draft if I still need to fill catcher. (<a href="https://twitter.com/13atkins13">Garrett Atkins</a>)</p>
<p id="AO6Ns0">In the early stages of <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> drafts, Travis d’Arnaud is going decently early. I understand that he plays on the reigning <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> champions in the Atlanta Braves, but I don’t get the hype surrounding the veteran catcher. d’Arnaud hasn’t posted double-digit home runs in back-to-back seasons since 2014-2015, and he’s played more than 108 games in a season just once in his nine-year career in the majors. On top of that, d’Arnaud is set to turn 33 years old early next month, so there could be even more injury risk for a catcher that has dealt with his fair share of injuries throughout his career. I’d much rather wait on another catcher—or take another position—than draft d’Arnaud as a top 10-15 catcher this season. (<a href="https://twitter.com/skyler_carlin">Skyler Carlin</a>)</p>
<h3 id="QBRmnp">Alejandro Kirk, <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a>
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<p id="e1kyX0"><em>NFBC ADP: 228.60</em><br><em>Draft rank: 13th</em></p>
<p id="mv9Jbl">It’s not that I don’t like Kirk: I think he is a very solid hitter (106 wRC+ last season). But Danny Jansen was equally good in 2021 (105 wRC+) and is superior behind the plate, and Gabriel Moreno is the future at the position for Toronto. Oh, and Reese McGuire is still around. At some point, there needs to be a trade that clears the situation a bit, but as things stand, there is just too much competition for me to trust Kirk with reliable playing time. Again, he is a fine hitter, but I’d look elsewhere in drafts. (<a href="https://twitter.com/andres_chavez13">Andrés Chávez</a>)</p>
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<img alt="Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BDjfaBaNniGyoi9zS_BN0lzoOBU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23188861/1344496725.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="x3rg4p">Mike Zunino, <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Tampa Bay Rays</a>
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<p id="gyN92T"><em>NFBC ADP: 253.80</em><br><em>Draft rank: 16th</em></p>
<p id="hAQ0Gu">Mike has not strung two solid years together in terms of both home runs and batting average in his career. It’s quite clear his average will always suffer, but I’m more concerned with the possibility of a regression with the ball used—which would drop his 33 homers in 2021 down to a more normalized 20-22 this year. The strikeout rate will likely be among the highest in MLB and his HR/FB rate will drop from his HR/FB rate of 30.3% he had last year—back to the average of 17% he had across the prior three seasons. (<a href="https://twitter.com/MWAbell">Mark Abell</a>)</p>
<h3 id="Ngf1i0">Gary Sanchez, <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a>
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<p id="cZeQoL"><em>NFBC ADP: 257.50</em><br><em>Draft rank: 17th</em></p>
<p id="fcMidI">A partial 2016 (20 HR in 53 games, .299 BA) and a banner 2017 (33 homers, .278 BA) have kept Sanchez’s draft day light burning for a long time now. But beyond 2017, he has been an absolute DRAG in batting average, totaling seasonal marks of .186, .232, .147, and .202. Okay, so the .232 mark (along with 34 homers) was a solid enough effort for a backstop. But that’s the ceiling that you’re hoping and praying for when you draft him? A .230 batting average? Over the past four years, there’s been a 50% chance that his batting average begins with a ONE, not a two. That’s insane to me. And his expected marks over the last two years are .191 and .228. He has a career .251 BABIP and he’s slow, inside the bottom 20% of the league in sprint speed. Even if we give Sanchez a pass for the crazy Covid year of 2020—his contact rates were atrocious compared to his career marks—the outlook still isn’t pretty from where I’m sitting. Again, you’re hoping for contact rates that are four to five percentage points below league average, and hoping for a strikeout rate that isn’t north of 28 percent. Sure, he scalds the ball when he hits it, and he can take a walk. But his defense isn’t stellar, and his injury history and inconsistency means he’ll lose more at-bats than you like. At season’s end I think you’re hoping for a .220 BA and 25 homers...I’m just not into that profile. I can find power elsewhere.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2022/1/23/22896545/staff-post-catchers-to-avoid-in-2022-fantasy-baseballHeath CappsGarrett AtkinsSkyler Carlinaecu13Mark Abell2022-01-22T12:42:33-05:002022-01-22T12:42:33-05:00Staff Post: Catchers to target in 2022 fantasy baseball
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<img alt="Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pPXtMTRjRm_dONeSb5purhheqLk=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70420666/1342304511.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers make their cases for five backstops in 2022 fantasy baseball.</p> <p id="1gkAzO">The <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> season is afoot! Catcher Week is already drawing to a close, with first basemen on tap for next week (beginning Monday). For now, be sure to scope out our NFL DFS content for ahead of the NFL divisional round.</p>
<aside id="J5Vj28"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Riskiest and Safest Plays for NFL divisional round","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2022/1/21/22889138/fantasy-football-volatility-index-the-riskiest-and-safest-plays-for-nfl-divisional-round"},{"title":"WR/CB Matchups for NFL DFS divisional round","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2022/1/22/22894605/divisional-round-wr-cb-matchups-who-to-target-and-avoid-in-nfl-dfs-lineups"}]}'></div></aside><p id="ruU5gK">All catcher ADPs are derived from roughly the last month’s worth of NFBC 50 ADP, or the last 20 drafts since December 27th. I like using 50s ADP for this—despite the industry standard being two-catcher, 15-team tilts, many people still play in 12-team formats. Hopefully there’s a target here for everyone...</p>
<h3 id="OJndOM">Tyler Stephenson, <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/skyler_carlin">Skyler Carlin</a>)</h3>
<p id="Dmrwnp"><em>NFBC ADP: 133.00</em><br><em>Draft rank: 7th</em></p>
<p id="C5Rj7B">Tyler Stephenson isn’t known for his hard-hitting tendencies, with his .431 SLG percentage (tied for 11th among Cs with 300 PAs in 2021) and 38.2% hard-hit percentage (17th among Cs). But what he lacks in the power department, he makes up for with efficiency at the plate. Just last season, Stephenson recorded an impressive 18.7% strikeout rate (fourth-best among Cs) and an OBP of .366, which was the third-best mark at the catcher position. Stephenson finished with 10 home runs and 45 RBIs while splitting time with Tucker Barnhart on the Cincinnati Reds—but with Barnhart now on the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a>, I expect Stephenson to see more of a full-time role. Another positive is that Stephenson could see an increase in home runs playing at a hitter-friendly venue in the Great American Ball Park, which has yielded the most home runs since 2019. Any improvements in the power department would make Stephenson an extremely valuable catcher this season given his already-efficient approach at the plate.</p>
<h3 id="wQntug">Keibert Ruiz, <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/andres_chavez13">Andrés Chávez</a>)</h3>
<p id="Zv5Z1M"><em>NFBC ADP: 150.50</em><br><em>Draft rank: 8th</em></p>
<p id="iAGh3n">He may not have had the most impressive Statcast profile in his short MLB stint last year (86.0 mph average exit velo, 106.5 max exit velo, 2.5% barrel rate) but Ruiz should have two things you should be looking for in a catcher: a proven ability to hit, and playing time. He hit .311/.381/.631 with 16 homers and a 143 wRC+ in Triple-A with the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> before going to the Nationals and posting a 146 wRC+ in Triple-A. Between the two organizations, he slashed .273/.333/.409 with a 101 wRC+ in the bigs, a nice floor for a catcher, and his minor league stats suggest there is plenty more upside. Invest.</p>
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<img alt="San Diego Padres v San Francisco Giants" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dU2aL1ZTTeZ_k4zmqtRboVjRi4s=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23187562/1277477694.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="xinQxR">Joey Bart, <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/MWAbell">Mark Abell</a>)</h3>
<p id="uzVtz7"><em>NFBC ADP: 260.30</em><br><em>Draft rank: 18th</em></p>
<p id="AmGh7r">I’m not overly concerned with his .233 batting average from his first year in MLB in 2020. Plenty of catchers have a slow first year and rebound. Bart has showed a strong pedigree, ahead of where someone his age should be in rookie level, A-, A+ , Double-A and Triple-A. Given his plate discipline, he will likely need a month or two to get the cadence down and work his walk rate and K-rate into more respectable levels, but he is smart and talented enough to figure it out. I think we are looking at a top 12 catcher if you can weather the storm through a potential slow start.</p>
<h3 id="i60lTI">Elias Diaz, <a href="https://www.purplerow.com">Colorado Rockies</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/HeathCapps">Heath Capps</a>)</h3>
<p id="Ktaet7"><em>NFBC ADP: 260.55</em><br><em>Draft rank: 19th</em></p>
<p id="DmGD2P">In truth, I like a lot of different backstops at different levels. But the guy I find myself aiming for is Diaz, given what looks like a certainty of playing time and the Coors Field backdrop. Like Stephenson and Ruiz before him, Diaz doesn’t have the greatest of profiles if you’re looking solely at Statcast. Here’s what manager Bud Black had to say about Diaz after Colorado signed him to a three-year deal worth $14.5 million:</p>
<p id="fGI8mM"><em>“It’s a combination of the physical strength and the durability and the work capacity,” Rockies manager </em><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2Fplayer%2Fmlb%2Fpadres%2Fbud-black%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.faketeams.com%2F2022%2F1%2F22%2F22889891%2Fstaff-post-catchers-to-target-in-2022-fantasy-baseball" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><em>Bud Black</em></a><em> said of Díaz’s ability to catch a majority of games. “And also mentally, to be able to withstand the rigors of catching and feel fresh and know that you’re fine to play that many games. It’s a mindset.” (</em><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2Fnews%2Frockies-catcher-elias-diaz-agree-to-new-long-term-contract%2FUsODC7BIPPxb%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.faketeams.com%2F2022%2F1%2F22%2F22889891%2Fstaff-post-catchers-to-target-in-2022-fantasy-baseball" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><em>Source: The Athletic</em></a><em>)</em></p>
<p id="6ivMyV">That durability and the certainty of playing time, coupled with his draft day price as a mid-range C2...I’m not sure what better sort of “floor” you could be hunting at the catcher position. Diaz has begun to elevate the ball more since his arrival in Colorado, and the thin air plus the PT could mean he pushes for 20 homers in 2022. Even if not, a 245+ BA and 15+ homers seems super attainable. I’m 100% in.</p>
<h3 id="VLOvUQ">Eric Haase, Detroit Tigers (<a href="https://twitter.com/13atkins13">Garrett Atkins</a>)</h3>
<p id="6FcBmM"><em>NFBC ADP: 291.00</em><br><em>Draft rank: 22nd</em></p>
<p id="AxNiJZ">Haase came out of nowhere last season. He hit .231 with 22 home runs and 61 RBI in just 98 games. He posted some solid Statcast numbers as well. Haase was 79th percentile in average exit velocity, 84th percentile in hard hit rate, and 86th percentile in barrel rate. Plus, he logged 22 games in left field, giving the Tigers flexibility in boosting his playing time—similar to Daulton Varsho in Arizona. Haase offers solid power, and is being drafted at the tail end of drafts in most formats.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2022/1/22/22889891/staff-post-catchers-to-target-in-2022-fantasy-baseballHeath CappsMark AbellGarrett Atkinsaecu13Skyler Carlin2022-01-21T11:56:47-05:002022-01-21T11:56:47-05:00State of the Position: Catchers in 2022
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<img alt="Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Qs-zdmkjwmVfk_XmuGbKJHw6_Tc=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70416644/1362959764.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A survey of MLB catchers with a fantasy baseball slant.</p> <p id="1L80Px">Most years you can count on a clear-cut top eight or so batters at the catcher position before the questions begin, and 2022 is no different. Three guys are being drafted inside the top 70 picks (Salvador Perez, JT Realmuto, Will Smith) and another three before pick 125 (Daulton Varsho, Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras). After that we start getting into the weeds, so we’ll start moving on with an overview of what to expect from catchers in 2022 <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a>.</p>
<h3 id="AuaVwy">The Elite: Salvador Perez</h3>
<p id="wAESDM">He’s only entering his age-32 season, which is remarkable given that it feels like he’s been around forever. Perez managed to play in 161 games last year, an impressive feat given the tread on his tires and the fact that we were coming off of an abbreviated 2020 season. Perez’s 665 PA were a career-high by FAR. Betting on that happening again seems like folly.</p>
<p id="GikvM9">Perez also posted an obscene 18.4% swinging strike rate, an ugly union with his career-high 58.9% swing rate 48.3% chase rate. It’s no secret that Perez is a free-swinger who isn’t interested in free passes, but in general the approach works for him. Last year’s 68.6% contact rate is ghastly, though, and something to monitor. In general, this is not the profile of a “safe” hitter. </p>
<p id="YySxF2">That said, Perez’s 4.2% walk rate was the best of his career since his rookie season (4.4%). His .273 BA was in line with career norms and not BABIP-fueled like his banner 2020 (.375 BABIP, .333 BA). And in 2021, his .276 xBA coupled with another year of excellent batted ball quality help assuage some of my concerns about his free-swinging nature.</p>
<p id="dLEi8f">Here’s a fun fact: Perez’s barrel rate has ascended every single year since Statcast became a thing. Check out his marks since 2015: 5.3%, 6.3%, 9.4%, 10.8%, 13.9%, and 16.3%. Furthermore, last year he ranked inside the top 10% of the league or better in barrel rate, average EV, max EV, xSLG, XWOBACON, and hard hit rate. In short, he may not always make contact...but when he does, a baseball is getting obliterated.</p>
<p id="JklAwt">In summation, I think Perez is a safe enough commodity at the catcher position. But I don’t like paying up this high for a catcher. I don’t like Perez’s free-swinging nature, though I admit that his historical ability to succeed despite being so aggressive means I have to accept that he can repeat. But I also don’t like missing out on a premium Round 3 pick who can offer me power AND speed, and I don’t like paying for a guy coming off of a career year. Maybe Perez won’t sink your team(s) in 2022, but he definitely won’t sink mine, as I won’t be targeting him aggressively.</p>
<h3 id="MVzn4X">2A and 2B: J.T. Realmuto vs. Will Smith</h3>
<p id="Jpx3Hk">This isn’t really a debate, as the profiles are pretty different. Mostly I’m curious if Smith belongs...I didn’t roster him last year so it’s time to dig in.</p>
<p id="lsH8n4">Smith slugged 35 homers across Triple-A and the majors in 2019, then cracked eight in the abbreviated 2020 (roughly a 30-homer pace). Last year, he hit 25 homers in only 130 games, and he did so while batting .258 with a healthy 11.6% walk rate and only a 20.2% strikeout rate. He’s a little Muncy-esque in his approach, with last year’s 41.9% swing rate and 24.7% chase rate both well below league average. However, he did raise his swing rate by 3.7% from 2020—a positive trend given that his contact rate was still above average at over 80 percent. He looks like a really, really safe bet for 25 homers and a batting average that won’t destroy you. If I miss out on Realmuto, I’m just fine with Smith (if paying up for catcher is your cup of tea). It’s not mine, in general. The next guy, though...</p>
<p id="BBBVUF">As for Realmuto, I think the power and the chip-in speed is kind of silly given his ADP of 61.17 over the last 18 NFBC 50 drafts. Drafting a guy who plays a ton and gives you arguably every category at the catcher position is silly. As I see it, Salvador Perez had a career year, and now everyone has Realmuto fatigue? What is wrong with people? If you’re on the clock after pick 60 and JTR is there, to me that’s a safe pick in any format. And even in NFBC 50s, you still have to roster two catchers. I’ll take all the JTR in Rounds 6 and 7 this year, thanks.</p>
<h3 id="GZQQNp">The Unicorn: Daulton Varsho</h3>
<p id="tsykOG">Varsho’s “unicorn” asset is his speed. If he gets enough playing time, he could swipe 15+ bags as a catcher, while offering double-digit power. And when you look at it that way, drafting him around pick 100 looks pretty darn sweet. The <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> are starved for offense, and I happen to think there’s rebound potential if Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Carson Kelly are healthier. However, that still leaves room for Varsho to play every day. He’s currently slated to bat third in this lineup as a center fielder (while Marte returns to the keystone). But the ability to spell Kelly behind the plate and to play all three outfield positions makes Varsho enticing. I’d imagine we’d see him off the bench as a pinch runner on days when he isn’t starting, too. So even if he doesn’t start a game, he could swipe a bag and score a run. Varsho will have a chance to live up to his ADP this year. I don’t hate this pick, especially in any competition with an overall component.</p>
<aside id="uVkWwp"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"2021 Diamondbacks Review: Carson Kelly","url":"https://www.azsnakepit.com/2022/1/7/22863747/2021-diamondbacks-reviews-6-catcher-carson-kelly"}]}'></div></aside><h3 id="KpMRX4">5A and 5B? Yasmani Grandal (110.94) vs. Willson Contreras (119.89):</h3>
<p id="krlTqI">Grandal’s gift is his power and his ability to draw a walk, so he gets a huge boost in OBP leagues. But for leagues that still use batting average, you’re taking a hit if you go that route. Grandal is a career .240 hitter, and he batted .240 last year with a .259 xBA. That’s an anomaly, though. Only twice since 2015 had Grandal posted an expected batting average above .238, and there are some ugly marks in there. Grandal is also 33 years old and hasn’t stolen a base since 2019.</p>
<p id="1uvBX4">Compare that to Contreras, who is 29 years old with a career .259 batting average. He also swiped five bags in 2021 and slugged 21 homers (only two fewer than Grandal). Contreras’ expected batting average last year was only .239, but he’s had a more consistent floor in actual and expected marks than Grandal. He’s also 64th percentile in sprint speed (27.6 ft/s) compared to Grandal’s 23.5 ft/s mark (bottom 7% of the MLB). Steamer projects 24 homers and six swipes for Contreras, with 140+ runs and RBI. For Grandal, it’s 26 homers and one swipe, with two less points on BA (.238 to .236) and 140ish runs plus RBI. I’m not really seeing Grandal as a much safer pick here. I’m happy to take the floor of Contreras after Grandal goes, and enjoy five more steals with (probably) more batting average and similar power output. I really like letting the last guy in a tier fall to me, especially when I think he’s as good or better than the players in his tier.</p>
<h3 id="0OiUKB">7A and 7B: Tyler Stephenson vs. Keibert Ruiz</h3>
<p id="1aOI6S">Stephenson is a 25-year-old former first-round pick, a catcher whose bat has finally caught up to his plus defense. I assume the Reds had seen enough after last year’s .286/.366/.431 slash with 10 homers, a 111 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate (10.2%), and a shiny 18.7% strikeout rate. So gone is Tucker Barnhart (to Detroit), much like Curt Casali the year before. In house options to back up Stephenson are Andrew Knapp and Aramis Garcia, as well as defense-first prospect Mark Kolozsvary (who is old for a prospect). I’m not quite sure why Steamer seems a little bearish on Stephenson’s playing time, projecting him for the 10th most plate appearances among all catchers (429). And much less PT than Ruiz. As others have noted, Stephenson could see time at DH if the NL adopts one. Always a bonus.</p>
<p id="IPKjNY">Ruiz is a contact-maven, so in the batting average regard he and Stephenson are similar. That said, we’ve been waiting on the power output from him for some time, and while he managed 16 dingers over 52 games at Triple-A last year, he hit just three in his 29 big league games. That said, Steamer projects a robust 21 homers for Ruiz over 118 games played in 2022 (484 PA). My lean is still towards Stephenson given his home park environs and the power output we already saw in 2021. However, the Nats are going to need to generate offense somehow, and I think that gives Ruiz a safe enough floor. I don’t know if I’m buying 20+ homer output, but I could see him compiling 15 over the course of a full season, with a batting average that won’t sink you. That’s noteworthy for a catcher.</p>
<h3 id="6cid1D">The Overrated: Alejandro Kirk, <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a>
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<p id="DCzcFj">I can’t pay up for Kirk (232.17 ADP) when his battery mate, Danny Jansen, is sitting there around pick 335. That’s quite the discrepancy. Steamer has this as a mess of a timeshare, with Jansen (361 PA) pegged for more playing time than Kirk (334 PA). The projection system does have both guys slugging 15 homers, though, and Kirk’s .281 BA is superior to Jansen’s .239. For me it’s an ADP thing—I can snag Elias Diaz at pick 250 if it’s batting average help I want...and Diaz has the Coors Field boost as well as (arguably) a safer handle on playing time. There’s also the lefty-hitting Omar Narvaez—a guy who consistently outperforms his expected batting average marks—if it’s that BA profile and a timeshare that I want. Narvaez has the right-handed Pedro Severino lurking around, but at least that’s more of a discernible split than we have with Kirk and Jansen—as both are right-handed hitters. And did I mention that the Jays still have Reese McGuire on the roster? What a cluster.</p>
<h3 id="OabWXR">The Sleeper: Elias Diaz, <a href="https://www.purplerow.com">Colorado Rockies</a>
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<p id="QXtXGJ">I’m surprised his ADP hasn’t crept further north than the current 259.89 average. He signed a three-year deal with Colorado in mid-November, he’s still just 31 years old, and he should get the lion’s share of playing time over backup Dom Nunez, who struggled mightily in 2021 in his second stint as a big-leaguer. No, Diaz’s Statcast page doesn’t strike fear into the heart of opposing pitchers. However, that’s the beauty of Coors Field—you don’t need the highest-end of batted ball velocities in order to be successful. Diaz has begun to elevate the ball more over his time in Colorado. His last two years in Coors have given us his two highest barrel rates (11.3% and 7.9%). Also, his two highest average launch angles (12.9 degrees, 14.7 degrees). Diaz accomplished this in 2021 while posting an 8.1% walk rate, the best mark of his career. He also made some gains from ‘20 to ‘21 in swinging strike rate, chase rate, contact rate, and strikeout rate. I think Diaz can pop 20 homers in 2022, while batting over .245 and being a plus in runs and RBI (at least compared to other catchers). His ADP confuses me. I’d consider him 50 picks earlier, in that Travis d’Arnaud-Christian Vazquez-Alejandro Kirk grouping. Diaz is one reason I doubt I have any of that grouping.</p>
<h3 id="TJoXy1">The Prospect to Watch: Adley Rutschman, <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a>
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<p id="Za18PF">Rutschman’s debut could depend on service-time manipulation rules that may or may not come out of the current MLB lockout. Maybe we see him on Opening Day, or maybe it’s sometime in April or May. Or maybe, just maybe, the Orioles decide he needs more seasoning at Triple-A. The last option is unlikely, however. Rutschman was drafted first overall in the 2019 draft, advanced two levels that year, spent the Covid year of 2020 at the alternate site, and then mashed at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. In Double-A, he hit 18 homers and drew an impressive 55 walks against 57 strikeouts. At Triple-A it was 24 walks against 33 strikeouts. Those are double-digit walk rates and strikeout rates below 18%, folks. Add that to his defensive skills, and the fact that he’s a switch-hitter, and it’s easy to see why this guy is soon to be the face of the franchise.</p>
<p id="O7O1SR">In short, Rutschman left college as one of the best prospects in recent memory, and his production at the highest levels has been encouraging. Steamer projects 14 homers with a slash line of .258/.338/.439. That’s over only 95 games, though. The Orioles’ in house options at catcher are Jacob Nottingham and Anthony Bemboom...I could see Rutschman easily exceeding that level of playing time. At a crummy catcher position, he’s worth taking a shot on at his ADP in the 180s (though I will confess to preferring him on the higher end of his range). His max pick recently is 223...I can definitely live with anything close to that for a guy with this upside.</p>
<p id="65clUm">What sticks out to you at backstop? Other names I like for various reasons are: Sean Murphy, Joey Bart, Carson Kelly, Max Stassi, Danny Jansen, and Jonah Heim. How about you?</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2022/1/21/22888812/state-of-the-position-catchers-in-2022Heath Capps2022-01-20T08:23:39-05:002022-01-20T08:23:39-05:002022 Fantasy Baseball: 5 Bold Catcher Predictions
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<img alt="Division Series - Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves - Game Three" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LoGGXonxVlLtUyerKrfA84Ntmfg=/0x0:2768x1845/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70411561/1346044778.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Omar + Brew Crew = Runs</p> <p id="3AHeUT">While Paul Revere is widely lauded for his notorious ride, not nearly as many discuss Sybil Ludington. She was the daughter of Colonel Henry Ludington. Sybil rode almost 40 miles through the night to warn 400 troops in Putnam County New York of incoming British forces at the age of 16. The location she forewarned was a supply depot that was being targeted. She also saved her father from capture, lighting candles and having her siblings march around the house as if it were guarded by military personnel when some loyalists attempted to capture him. Sybil took great risks in her midnight ride and <em>Home Alone</em>-esque fakeout, and they paid off in both circumstances. Not all bold moves do. Sometimes you swing and miss, but that is what makes the payoff so great. As Billie Jean King once said: “Be bold, if you’re going to make an error, make it a doozy and don’t be afraid to hit the ball!”</p>
<h3 id="TS0VHs">1. Salvador Perez hits half as many homers in 2022 as he hit in 2021.</h3>
<p id="jTBCc1"><strong>Justification</strong>: Salvador hit 48 home runs in 2021. He had help with a (potential) ball that traveled further, but he also got his launch angle to a nice 15.9 degrees with an exit velocity above 92, and accounted for a barrel rate of 16.3%. There is a component of this that is an adjusted swing, but there also is a piece that is a favorable year. I struggle to see a catcher who just now found his perfect swing at 31 years of age and would lean into a year where all of the pieces fit perfectly (see the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a> from 2020). I think the most likely scenario is a Perez who hits 24-30 HR and still sits among the top 3 catchers, but is not the cemented #1.</p>
<h3 id="gvT87Y">2. Willson Contreras sets a career-high in home runs this season.</h3>
<p id="iW3q99"><strong>Justification</strong>: Last season Willson moved his game into more of a HR-centric style and away from a batting average mentality. He had a batting average north of .270 in three of his first four seasons. The last two years he has clearly moved his launch angle and contact away from line drives into more of a fly ball approach in an attempt to hit more home runs. He’s in for a career year looking for a payday and will be looking to maximize his output (he had a 95th percentile max exit velocity last season). This might mean an increase in his strikeout rate, but he’s also showing a more disciplined approach with an increase in walk rate as well. The biggest question is whether or not the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> double down on keeping him or keep on with the fire sale and trade him early into this season.</p>
<h3 id="L2jNYR">3. Omar Narvaez has a career year in runs scored.</h3>
<p id="wSR6wk"><strong>Justification</strong>: Omar was on track for a career year until he had a dismal final month of the season. A deep dive was done by Jack Stern with Brew Crew Ball showing that his metrics held up on pitch selection and location—it was likely just the fatigue of him playing the 2<sup>nd</sup> most games of his pro career. He is strong at getting on base (only one year in his career with a sub .260 average) and he has a disciplined approach (near 10% walk rate and sub 20% K-rate. He limits his fly ball rate, and while his barrel rate and exit velocity are all low, he connects well with the sweet spot giving him ample on-base abillty. He has a boatload of power bats on the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> roster with Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich, Hunter Renfroe, Luis Urias and Willy Adames.</p>
<aside id="yWLPse"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Deep Dive into Omar Navarez Second Half","url":"https://www.brewcrewball.com/2022/1/18/22885851/milwaukee-brewers-digging-deeper-into-omar-narvaez-second-half"}]}'></div></aside><h3 id="EBEpsJ">4. Elias Diaz finishes top 3 in runs among catchers.</h3>
<p id="RmfSEG"><strong>Justification</strong>: Elias, being early in his career has shown a statistical trend to head two different ways this season. On the one side, he is one of three catchers who had 50 runs, 5%+ walk rate, sub 20% K-rate, and a wOBA of .330+ (Buster Posey and Tyler Stephenson). He will be able to get on base if he can continue these trends into this season. His BABIP was rather low (.249 last year) which could lend itself to a higher on-base total this year. The other side of this is his lack of power, which limits his ability to get on base hits (15<sup>th</sup> percentile in exit velocity, 32% in hard hit). This, coupled with a roster that is severely lacking in power (20<sup>th</sup> most HR hit last year as a team) could lend itself to him not scoring a lot of runs. </p>
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<h3 id="vIcVpm">5. Daulton Varsho leads all catchers in steals.</h3>
<p id="6zHC80"><strong>Justification</strong>: In Double-A Daulton averaged a steal in 20% of games. At Triple-A he averaged a steal in 11% of games. Last season, in his first significant taste of MLB, he averaged a steal in 6% of games. With Carson Kelly back full-time, Daulton will have catcher-eligibility headed towards center field. This gives him two options to see playing time, with less wear and tear on his knees in the process, giving him more success on the basepaths. The <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> went from 10<sup>th</sup> in steals in 2019 to 18<sup>th</sup>in steals in 2020 to 28<sup>th</sup> in 2021 which seemed to be a concentrated effort under Torey Lovullo to run the ball less among other strategies. Entering 2022, Arizona now has a new pitching, hitting, and bench coach, telling me its safe to say Torey will be reassessing all previous strategies in favor of some newer ones. Look for the Diamondbacks to likely steal bases more in 2022.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2022/1/20/22891317/5-bold-predictions-for-2021-fantasy-baseball-catchers-omar-narvaezMark Abell2022-01-18T14:08:17-05:002022-01-18T14:08:17-05:004 Catchers to Target in 2022
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<img alt="MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DRvc49wqwlIBC4VV2syF6Z5ueG0=/33x0:3858x2550/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70404885/usa_today_16626361.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Garrett takes a look at some high upside targets to fill your catcher position in fantasy baseball this season.</p> <p id="nUwKXV">Catcher is (and most likely always will be) the weakest position in <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a>. You have Salvador Perez coming off a historic year. J.T. Realmuto, the perennial stud. Will Smith, the newcomer who looks to become a mainstay at the top of the positional ranks. Then, you get a bunch of “meh.” Sure, you have upside at spots, a bit of veteran reliability, and prospects we all dream of being the next Buster Posey. All that being said, I’m shooting for upside in 2022 at catcher. Betting on high variance players who offer huge ceilings. Worst case, I can stream catcher like most people end up doing anyway.</p>
<p id="PNQFD7">Here are a few names I’m targeting in drafts at backstop.</p>
<h3 id="fh5OHO">Daulton Varsho, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a>
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<p id="nY2U6K">My Rank: 4, ECR: 6, NFBC ADP: 98.19</p>
<p id="foT5ZL">Steamer projection: .253, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 49 R, 8 SB, 104 games</p>
<p id="AMpo0a">Playing time is king, especially in a time where most teams split catching duties up amongst multiple guys. Varsho is a rarity in that he will get additional at-bats in the outfield while remaining catcher-eligible. In fact, he saw more time last season as an outfielder than as a backstop. The other thing that makes Varsho a bit of a unicorn at catcher is his wheels. Varsho posted an 84th percentile sprint speed in 2021 and has the upside of 15-20 steals. That speed, coupled with the likelihood of 500+ plate appearances, makes Varsho a shoe-in top 5 option at such a weak position. </p>
<h3 id="vVK5zS">Keibert Ruiz, <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a>
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<p id="YUVs7q">My rank: 7, ECR: 8, NFBC ADP: 153.85</p>
<p id="veY2cQ">Steamer projection: .270, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 45 R, 1 SB, 95 games </p>
<p id="uIfFxK">One of the key pieces the Nationals got in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer trade, Ruiz should be the starting catcher for the Nationals and see the lion’s share of work behind the plate in 2022. Ruiz had 21 home runs and hit .310 over 72 games at Triple-A last season. Perhaps even more impressive was his eye at the plate. He struck out only 33 times, while drawing 30 walks. That kind of K/BB ratio is a thing of beauty, especially for a 23-year-old. </p>
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<img alt="Kannapolis Intimidators v Delmarva Shorebirds" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kuDX4PN-SfAKIY521vwmSZuU6GE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23177217/1235108781.jpg">
<cite>Photo by: Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="B7vlv6">Adley Rutschman, <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a>
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<p id="rL8FTu">My Rank: 9, ECR: 21, NFBC ADP: 190.2</p>
<p id="CZnPCM">Steamer projection: .260, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 48 R, 3 SB, 95 games</p>
<p id="NrGXmP">Rutschman is perhaps the biggest wild card of not only the catcher position, but of all hitters this coming season. If we knew he was starting the season at the MLB level, he’d be an easy top 10 option. Most analysts are hedging their bets and ranking him in the mid to high teens at catcher. Not me, I’m all in! The catcher position is such a crapshoot, which makes it the one position a risk like this is worth it. The payoff is a top 5 catcher. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Rutschman hit .285 with a .397 OBP over 123 games last year. He did so by drawing 79 walks compared to just 90 strikeouts. This is Joey Votto at catcher! It all hinges on when the Orioles are ready to turn him loose. I’m thinking it will be early into 2022.</p>
<h3 id="JThobt">Max Stassi, <a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Los Angeles Angels</a>
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<p id="CdTB6Y">My Rank: 16, ECR: 20, NFBC ADP: 306.23</p>
<p id="jbZ3aJ">Steamer projection: .223, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 44 R, 1 SB, 98 games</p>
<p id="1EKrN9">Stassi is definitely a two-catcher league target or someone to stream during the year. He can provides solid power and counting stats when hot. Roster Resource on Fangraphs has him hitting fifth in an Angels lineup led by Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Not a bad spot to pile up RBI. Stassi has hit .250 with 20 home runs over 118 games the past two seasons. </p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2022/1/18/22889704/fantasy-baseball-2022-four-catchers-target-c-two-leagues-prospects-sleepers-daulton-varshoGarrett Atkins2022-01-17T07:00:00-05:002022-01-17T07:00:00-05:00Top 30 Catchers for 2022
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<img alt="Championship Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v Atlanta Braves - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_kJ7ugzCoDARzbxSLIww9WOy4j8=/0x0:2886x1924/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70399309/1347166363.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers rank the backstops for 2022 fantasy baseball.</p> <p id="sEoEuw">The start of positional weeks here at Fake Teams is always an exciting time. There’s a new year, and with it the promise of the ensuing <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> season.</p>
<p id="e8jE3n">Unfortunately, due to the MLB lockout we don’t have much of a Hot Stove season to discuss as we dive into each position. But we all need something to look forward to, right? I’m hoping the two sides come up with an accord that allows for baseball to be played on time this year—on time for an Opening Day of March 31st.</p>
<p id="THlryi">As for positional weeks, we’ll begin with catchers. You know the drill if you’ve been here before. It’s a solid week devoted to each position. Here’s the proposed schedule:</p>
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<p id="vVl3PY">These rankings are presented without much preamble, as further analysis will follow throughout the week. We’ll share our targets, avoids, sleepers, prospects to watch, and more. And if you aren’t into catchers, at least we are getting the position over with first...right?</p>
<p id="yM9bKn">Below, you’ll see a few ties, at least when it comes to average ranking. Feel free to settle those in the comments! There are three such battles: Stephenson vs. Ruiz, Kirk vs. Stassi, and Stallings vs. Gomes. Was there ever a trio of more exciting duos? I don’t think so.</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2022/1/17/22886900/2022-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-30-catchersHeath CappsMark Abellaecu13Garrett AtkinsSkyler Carlin