Fake Teams - Everything You Need for NFL Week 12The Key Source For Incisive Fantasy Sports Analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50153/fake-fav.png2021-11-27T10:08:06-05:00http://www.faketeams.com/rss/stream/225700932021-11-27T10:08:06-05:002021-11-27T10:08:06-05:00NFL DFS stacks for Week 12
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<img alt="Cleveland Browns v Los Angeles Chargers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tJVNr64pBjh7A0psRlLiP6wC0j4=/0x0:2267x1511/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70198084/1345900756.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>It’s hard not to like Justin Herbert and Cam Newton at their current prices on DraftKings in Week 12.</p> <p id="H4b1tF">I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving with family and friends. And for those that don’t celebrate Thanksgiving, I hope you had a great Thursday. It was an ugly three-game slate on Thanksgiving, with the <a href="https://www.windycitygridiron.com/">Chicago Bears</a> and the <a href="https://www.prideofdetroit.com/">Detroit Lions</a> kicking things off with a low-scoring game. The <a href="https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/">Dallas Cowboys</a> and the <a href="https://www.silverandblackpride.com/">Las Vegas Raiders</a> gave us a high-scoring contest in overtime, only for the referees to grab the limelight with 28 penalties accepted for 276 yards. To finish the night off, the <a href="https://www.buffalorumblings.com/">Buffalo Bills</a> trounced the shorthanded <a href="https://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/">New Orleans Saints</a>.</p>
<p id="0haC5m">The good news is that after eating endless amounts of food, we have a main slate to digest on Sunday. We have 10 games to choose from due to bye weeks and the three games that took place on Thanksgiving. Even with the somewhat limited selection, there are plenty of different directions you could go. If you’re someone that is behind on your research for the upcoming week, heat up some leftovers and check out my favorite stacks and bring-back options for Week 12’s main slate over at DraftKings. </p>
<h3 id="By7uLd">Favorite Stacks</h3>
<h4 id="UmhqDO">TB: Tom Brady ($7,600), Mike Evans ($7,200), Chris Godwin ($7,000), Rob Gronkowski ($4,400)</h4>
<p id="7zM5DV">The offense of the <a href="https://www.bucsnation.com/">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</a> appeared to be back in sync in Week 11 versus the <a href="https://www.bigblueview.com/">New York Giants</a>. Following two consecutive losses, the Buccaneers had no troubles airing it out versus the Giants, especially with the return of Rob Gronkowski. With the <a href="https://www.stampedeblue.com/">Indianapolis Colts</a> possessing a strong run defense (2nd in rush DVOA) and weak pass defense (20th in pass DVOA), this sets up for a perfect week for Tampa Bay’s pass-heavy approach. There isn’t a team in the NFL that throws more than the Buccaneers, who are averaging 43.2 pass plays per game. Also, we get Tom Brady — who has thrown a league-high 29 touchdowns — squaring off with a Colts defense that has given up a league-worst 25 passing touchdowns thus far. We will need to monitor Mike Evans as he’s dealing with back tightness and is questionable for Sunday. Chris Godwin and Gronkowski are strong options with Antonio Brown still sidelined, and either Scotty Miller or Tyler Johnson could become tournament plays if Evans is ruled out.</p>
<p id="P6rYUU"><em>Bring-back options: Jonathan Taylor ($9,100), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,600), T.Y. Hilton ($4,000), Jack Doyle ($3,100)</em></p>
<p id="T74OTw">Jonathan Taylor was seemingly in a bad matchup last week against the Buffalo Bills. However, the second-year back put together a memorable outing with 56.4 points on DraftKings. This week, Taylor will face another stingy run defense in the Buccaneers that is expected to get Vita Vea back in the interior of their defensive front. Taylor could still find a way to be viable with his high touchdown upside, but just beware that he could hamper your lineups at $9,100. With Tampa Bay enticing teams to throw the ball, this may very well be a Michael Pittman Jr. week. Pittman leads the Colts with a 23.96% target share and he also leads the team with a massive 28.57% target share in the red zone. T.Y. Hilton is the No. 2 wide receiver for Indianapolis, and if the Colts find themselves in a shootout, then Hilton could see more looks than he’s gotten in previous weeks. While I’m not a fan of playing Jack Doyle, he's gotten 5+ targets in back-to-back weeks and you could do a lot worse if you’re saving salary at the tight end position.</p>
<h4 id="0LKmLs">LAC: Justin Herbert ($6,600), Austin Ekeler ($8,400), Keenan Allen ($7,400), Mike Williams ($5,700), Jared Cook ($3,000)</h4>
<p id="4n8tSf">Justin Herbert is on the path to becoming one of the top-tier quarterbacks in the NFL. But somehow, after putting up 38.3 points against the <a href="https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/">Pittsburgh Steelers</a> in Week 11, DraftKings has priced him down from $6,700 to $6,600 this week. Herbert is entirely too cheap for the talent he possesses, especially if he begins running more like he did in Week 11. Austin Ekeler is a fine stacking option with Herbert as he’s seen 5+ targets in all but two games this season while being second on the team with six receiving touchdowns. Keenan Allen doesn’t have the touchdown equity that Mike Williams has, but on a full-point PPR site like DraftKings, he’s always going to be one of the safest options. Williams showed signs of life in Week 11 with him scoring 20+ points for the first time since Week 5 and he’s priced in a decent range at $5,700. Even though the <a href="https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/">Los Angeles Chargers</a> deploy multiple tight ends, Jared Cook remains the top option of the bunch. I’d be careful playing any of the tight ends from the Chargers, though, as the <a href="https://www.milehighreport.com">Denver Broncos</a> have surrendered the third-fewest points to the position on DraftKings.</p>
<p id="KexKTr"><em>Bring-back options: Jerry Jeudy ($5,500), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Melvin Gordon ($5,300), Tim Patrick ($4,800), Noah Fant ($4,600)</em></p>
<p id="C9pulH">What makes me like stacking the Chargers even more in Week 12 is that the main contributors on the Broncos are extremely affordable this week. Jerry Jeudy is the most expensive skill player for Denver at only $5,500. Jeudy has a team-high 21 targets in the past three weeks and has yet to find the end zone this season. While Jeudy has taken his role as the No. 1 guy, Courtland Sutton is still a threat to return value on one play at $5,400. Melvin Gordon is in a smash spot against a Chargers defense that allows a league-worst 119.4 rushing yards per game to running backs. I’m not opposed to using Javonte Williams in lineups either, especially if Gordon becomes a high-owned player by Sunday. Tim Patrick leads the Broncos wide receivers in touchdowns with four, and he is third on the team in red-zone targets. Noah Fant owns a team-best 22.81% target share in the red zone and remains a favorite of Teddy Bridgewater’s this season with 6.6 targets per game.</p>
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<img alt="Washington Football Team v Carolina Panthers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HGN5hA68t0PyDLJGWTv-Z_Cmfd0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23046070/1354951146.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="S1BVS7">CAR: Cam Newton ($5,600), Christian McCaffrey ($9,000), D.J. Moore ($6,200), Robby Anderson ($4,700)</h4>
<p id="dp1W2M">Cam Newton was a popular choice at quarterback in Week 11 and I expect that to somewhat be the same in Week 12. DraftKings refused to raise his price much as he’s only $500 more expensive than last week. Newton is entirely too cheap and he might possess the highest rushing touchdown upside of any quarterback, maybe besides Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. For comparison, Newton is $8,000 on FanDuel, making him the third-most expensive quarterback on the blue site compared to him being the 12th most expensive on DraftKings. Christian McCaffrey is always going to be a viable play as long as he’s healthy. McCaffrey has 38 targets in the five games he wasn’t sidelined for or left early due to injury. D.J. Moore may be back to being a fringe WR1 with Newton under center after scoring the most points he’s had since Week 4 in Week 11. Robby Anderson may finally have some value as he’s garnered 12 targets and a touchdown in the two weeks since Newton’s been involved at quarterback. The good news for Moore and Anderson is that the <a href="https://www.thephinsider.com/">Miami Dolphins</a> give up the second-most points per game to wide receivers on DraftKings this season.</p>
<p id="35eRLY"><em>Bring-back options: Jaylen Waddle ($5,900), Myles Gaskin ($5,600), Mike Gesicki ($5,300)</em></p>
<p id="pG1Gwb">It’s extremely easy to determine who we should use from the Dolphins as bring-back or stack options right now. With Will Fuller and DeVante Parker still out for Miami, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Myles Gaskin are the logical plays. To show how much those three guys are relied upon, they have combined for a whopping 53.08% of the team’s targets this season. I’d prioritize Waddle and Gesicki over Gaskin due to the Panthers allowing the second-fewest points per game to running backs this season. And if you’re fully immersed in the theory that Gaskin is only performing well on odd-numbered weeks, then this is not the week to use him.</p>
<h4 id="yPHjir">MIN: Kirk Cousins ($6,300), Justin Jefferson ($8,300), Dalvin Cook ($8,100), Adam Thielen ($6,700), Tyler Conklin ($3,700)</h4>
<p id="gzBiLY">My best lineups in Week 11 — with the Cowboys and the <a href="https://www.arrowheadpride.com">Kansas City Chiefs</a> game being a letdown — included players from the NFC North bout between the <a href="https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/">Green Bay Packers</a> and the <a href="https://www.dailynorseman.com/">Minnesota Vikings</a>. I’m going right back to the well this week as Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are one of my favorite stacks this week. Cousins has thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight weeks and gets a pass-funneling defense in the <a href="https://www.ninersnation.com/">San Francisco 49ers</a>. San Francisco boasts the No. 3 ranked defense in run DVOA, but they have the No. 23 ranked defense in pass DVOA. Minnesota has also found themselves in plenty of shootouts this season, giving us a chance to see fruitful results by stacking the Vikings. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are the easy options to use with Cousins as those two alone have commanded 53.85% of the targets so far. Tyler Conklin has been a solid value tight end in recent weeks, but the 49ers have limited tight ends to the fourth-fewest points per game on DraftKings. Dalvin Cook is okay to stack with Cousins, but you might need him to get 5+ targets this week for him to pay off his salary, which is something he’s achieved just three times all season.</p>
<p id="kpXaEo"><em>Bring-back options: Deebo Samuel ($7,900), George Kittle ($6,400), Elijah Mitchell ($5,400) Brandon Aiyuk ($5,300)</em></p>
<p id="pOQX9i">On the outside looking in, this looks like a perfect week for the 49ers to deploy their run-heavy offense. The Vikings are going to be without Danielle Hunter, Dalvin Tomlinson, Michael Pierce, and Everson Griffen on their defensive line. Seeing that Minnesota’s defense already gives up the 11th most rushing yards per game to running backs, it could be a massive week for Elijah Mitchell, who could return to the 49ers this week. Jeff Wilson would replace Mitchell if the rookie rusher is unable to suit up again. Deebo Samuel has been getting more touches out of the backfield in recent weeks and continues to get a nice target share, making him a matchup-proof wide receiver this season. It just so happens that the Vikings give up the third-most points to wide receivers, which aids Brandon Aiyuk as well. George Kittle has returned to being a reliable option at tight end with 4+ receptions and a touchdown in each of his last three games. </p>
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<img alt="New Orleans Saints v Philadelphia Eagles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/omdwO4ge3GZn3T8j_pMlvub_4BA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23046082/1354924651.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="8qW7Dx">PHI: Jalen Hurts ($7,300), DeVonta Smith ($6,400), Miles Sanders ($5,100), Dallas Goedert ($4,800)</h4>
<p id="HlcGH3">Jalen Hurts and the <a href="https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/">Philadelphia Eagles</a> are rolling right now with an offense that wants to lean on their ground game. Hurts averages 23.6 points on DraftKings this season, putting him behind only Brady and Herbert on the main slate. If there is going to be any week that Miles Sanders finally pays off, this should be the week as Jordan Howard is out for the Eagles and the Giants allow the fifth-most points per game to running backs on DraftKings. When Philadelphia does elect to throw the ball, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are the two primary targets. I’m not against using Hurts and Sanders single stacks as the Eagles could elect to pound the football and play stifling defense versus their NFC East foes on Sunday.</p>
<p id="JRJ4Kq"><em>Bring-back options: Saquon Barkley ($6,300), Kenny Golladay ($5,100), Darius Slayton ($4,900), Evan Engram ($3,800)</em></p>
<p id="HJv44v">Saquon Barkley is back in the fold for the Giants, as he caught six passes for 31 yards in Week 11 versus the Buccaneers. He should have a better day running the ball in Week 12 against an Eagles defense that is permitting the eighth-most rushing yards per game to running backs in 2021. As of this moment, it seems unlikely that Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney will play this Sunday due to groin ailments. Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton will be the top two wide receivers on the field at affordable prices. And similar to Sanders on the Eagles, if Evan Engram can’t perform well with the lack of wideouts this week, then when will it be time for him to smash at his current price of $3,800?</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/11/27/22803446/nfl-dfs-best-stacks-for-draftkings-week-12-main-slateSkyler Carlin2021-11-26T11:30:00-05:002021-11-26T11:30:00-05:005 Bold Predictions for NFL Week 12
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<p>If Baker Mayfield plays, I'm starting him everywhere.</p> <p id="J59jBC">It’s Week 12 of <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a>. Welcome to bold predictions time...</p>
<h3 id="GXm4J2">1.) Baker Mayfield is a top 10 quarterback.</h3>
<p id="l1S0au"><strong>Justification:</strong> There is a chance he’s benched for Case Keenum in hopes he can heal a bit. But after four weeks of lackluster performances the media has been grilling him on expectations going forward. He’s banged up, which is concerning, but facing a division rival I think we see a big performance out of him in spite of his detractors. </p>
<h3 id="qBGHfb">2.) Justin Jefferson finishes outside the top 10 wide receivers.</h3>
<p id="zKWZ7T"><strong>Justification</strong>: Facing the <a href="https://www.ninersnation.com/">49ers</a> secondary is no joke, and Minnesota will have more luck running the ball than throwing it. Also after back-to-back elite weeks, I think he comes down to earth a bit finishing in the WR15 area. Last week, no 49ers defensive back allowed more than 30 yards in his coverage (but granted, it was against Jacksonville).</p>
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<img alt="Las Vegas Raiders v New York Giants" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lYVHFFZEJ-Fqe1O2255gGLAaq7k=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23044305/1354359457.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="gxE0fw">3.) Evan Engram is a top 10 tight end.</h3>
<p id="ih9ef6"><strong>Justification:</strong> The Giants will face off against the Eagles with a new OC this week. Between Darius Slay’s repeated pick sixes and an easy outlet for Daniel Jones, I think the tight ends see a lot of work against the team who has allowed the most fantasy points in this category this season. If Freddie Kitchens steps into the role he won’t be afraid to use his tight end. During the 2018 season when he was the OC for the <a href="https://www.dawgsbynature.com/">Browns</a>, David Njoku had 639 yards and four touchdowns.</p>
<h3 id="UaNJln">4.) Melvin Gordon is a top 10 running back.</h3>
<p id="lRJiRU"><strong>Justification</strong>: He had touchdowns in his last three games before the bye last week, when he got some rest. He comes into this week facing the <a href="https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/">Chargers</a>, who have allowed five rushing scores across the last four games, along with two 80+ yard rushing performances. </p>
<h3 id="kbWatM">5.) Tampa Bay vs. Indianapolis has an over/under of 52.5. Give me the over at 55 points.</h3>
<p id="U7012m"><strong>Justification:</strong> This one is a bit bold. It’s rare to see a game go over 55 points and as of late, given the weather trends, we are seeing lower scores. The Colts have a roof which should eliminate that issue (although both Wentz and Brady are comfortable in cold weather) but both teams have been red-hot on offense lately. The Colts have scored at least 30 points in five of their last six games, and the Bucs have scored at least 27 in five of their last six.</p>
<p id="I3565G"> </p>
<p id="VeFDIG">YTD Grades:<br>A: 17<br>B: 5<br>C: 6<br>D: 21</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/11/26/22802325/5-bold-predictions-for-week-11-baker-mayfieldMark Abell2021-11-26T08:39:27-05:002021-11-26T08:39:27-05:00WR/CB Matchups for Week 12
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<figcaption>Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Identifying the best and worst NFL DFS plays at the WR position based on CB matchups for Week 12</p> <p id="Facr90">When it comes to season-long leagues, your lineup will always feature your top wideouts. You just have to go with your best players no matter what. In <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/">DFS</a> contests, though, you better keep an eye on some of the upcoming WR/CB matchups if you want to really identify the best and worst plays of the upcoming slate of games.</p>
<p id="7ENpWI">With wide receivers being the second-highest scoring position only behind quarterbacks, it’s critical to pick the best possible players at the position if you want to rack up big-time points every week. One important point to consider that most people forget about: different wideouts face different cornerbacks, and different cornerbacks have wildly varying defensive levels.</p>
<p id="U7KvBq">I’m here to highlight some of the best WR/CB matchups to target, and some of the worst WR/CB matchups to avoid for this weekend slate of games.</p>
<h2 id="GiAhzN">Top WR/CB Matchups To Target</h2>
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<img alt="Los Angeles Rams v San Francisco 49ers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/98AvP6E6cNu8V1D9TwOLG6Oa9cM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23039719/1353703105.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="jCInt0">Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. Bashaud Breeland (MIN)</h3>
<p id="hymt9y">There is no point in arguing this has been Deebo’s breakout season anymore. Samuel hit the floor running with a 31.9-PPR point performance in Week 1, we all thought that was a freakish outlier, and then we had to eat an ‘L’ as Deebo kept racking up numbers on a weekly basis. In fact, Deebo has five WR1 finishes and has also entered the WR2 realm in all but two of his 10 games played this season. Some people might fade Samuel this week knowing he’s coming off back-to-back 5-or-fewer-target games, but the truth is that while he’s lacked that volume he’s still found ways to excel...on the ground with two rushing touchdowns (one against the Rams, one against Jacksonville). The receiving prowess should be back this week, though, with an underperforming CB projected to cover most of Deebo’s routes.</p>
<p id="x8DOgC">Bashaud Breeland has been atrocious this season. I’m sorry, but there is just no way I can sugarcoat that. BB has defended almost 350 routes (334 through Week 11) and he’s just sucked in defensive duties. As simple as that. Breeland is surrendering the highest FP/Route mark at 0.39 (among 142 defenders with 200+ routes defended) and his FP/Target allowed is also sky-high at 1.87 (33rd percentile). That latter number is definitely not horrid, but that’s only because opposing quarterbacks are throwing balls in bunches toward Breeland knowing he’s going to flop sooner or later: Bashaud has been targeted a monster 62 times (9th-most), allowed 39 passes to end in receptions (6th-most; 62.9% completion rate), and allowed 4 TDs on the routes he’s defended already against just one interception... The 104.8 passer rating when targeted is the 8th-worst among CBs targeted 50+ times.</p>
<h3 id="bl7Ug9">Cooper Kupp (LAR) vs. Chandon Sullivan (GB)</h3>
<p id="39o6ag">Kupp has turned into a bonafide WR1, perhaps even FFMOP1. I made that last thing up, but it means he’s for real about to become the <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">Fantasy Football</a> Most Outstanding Player of this the 2021 year of our lord. Kupp is only trailing RB Jonathan Taylor in total PPR points but the latter has one more game played. Kupp’s also way less volatile than Taylor on a weekly basis, even more of late: it’s been five games in a row with 20+ PPR points in his bag including two matches hitting 34+ FP. Kupp has strung five top-7 finishes among WRs, and he has been a top-5 fantasy player <em>overall</em> in three weeks already. Jesus. Kupp has only once seen fewer than 10 targets this season, has only once caught fewer than seven passes and has only once fallen below the 92-yard receiving mark. It’s not that you ever doubt this type of stud as a perennial starter/pick for your DFS squads, but you can rest assured you’re landing a surefire WR1 this week on Kupp. </p>
<p id="dl0mp2">And that doesn’t just have to do with Kupp himself, but his cover-corner this weekend in <a href="https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/">Packers</a>’ Chandon Sullivan. No offense, but maybe Green Bay should be looking in another direction while Jaire Alexander is out? Sullivan has played in all 11 games this season but only in six of them as the “starter.” Even then, though, he’s been <em>active</em> as hell with 381 routes defended, one of only 41 CB/S with 350+ such marks. Now, in terms of production, things have not been that rosy for the corner. Sullivan has been targeted 40 times while allowing 26 receptions (65% completion rate). Not nightmarish, but still a high allowance rate. He’s been burned for 164 YAC, the sixth-largest mark in that 41-man cohort on both a per-target and a per-reception basis, and has intercepted just one ball. Again, this is definitely not the worst secondary D-man in the league but he’s a young, still developing one that will suffer a ton this week facing the best wideout in the NFL these days.</p>
<h2 id="XQhgP7">Top WR/CB Matchups To Avoid</h2>
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<img alt="Las Vegas Raiders v New York Giants" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IYSIosQ9DtnHzyxgWfAt-3cwNiY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23039718/1236563400.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="i4OeEt">Chase Claypool (PIT) vs. Chidobe Awuzie (CIN)</h3>
<p id="GjgxB5">If you were wondering why Claypool was missing practice time on a weekly basis, well, we got news related to his status: Claypool seems to be navigating a turf toe injury and playing through pain, but he’s yet to miss ample playing time and/or games. The PPR points have been a little bit down on the year with very bouncy outcomes, but Claypool righted his wrongs last weekend with a 14.4-FP outing against the <a href="https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/">Chargers</a> in which he caught 5-of-9 targets for 93 yards. He also had a couple of WR2-level games (18.6 and 24.0 PPR) in Weeks 3 and 5 sandwiching his W4 absence. The targets are never falling from five a game, and odds are he’s going to catch at least 3+ of them for some 65+ yards—and the touchdown count should positively regress and improve as he’s only scored once in eight games played. But man, this definitely doesn’t look like the weekend to bet on Chase given the tough corner he’s projected to be facing on most snaps come Sunday.</p>
<p id="et4mYW">Enter Chidobe Awuzie, he of the Cincy Bengals. Awuzie has covered 348 routes through Week 11—one of only 69 players to do so—yet he’s allowing a reasonable 0.20 FP/Route to date. That’s definitely not the best mark out there and just an average one (42nd percentile), but what is outstanding is how Awuzie is limiting receivers when targeted. Chidobe boasts the fourth-best FP/Target mark at a measly 1.23 which is only worse than the averages of Jamel Dean, Tre’Davious White, and Devin McCourty. Awuzie has allowed 30 completions in 56 targets (53.6% rate) and allowed 271 yards on those plays with only 2 TDs surrendered against one interception. Awuzie’s 4.8 Y/T and 9.0 YPC allowed are the best marks among CBs targeted 50+ times this season. Uh, oh, talk about a bad matchup... not to mention Claypool’s shaky health.</p>
<h3 id="JFzaoO">DJ Moore (CAR) vs. Xavien Howard (MIA)</h3>
<p id="5JyfJt">The Panthers have improved of late going 2-2 in the past four weeks compared to 0-4 in the prior month, and this weekend they face another lowly opponent in the <a href="https://www.thephinsider.com/">Miami Dolphins</a>. The third ‘W’ in a little over a month is definitely at reach for Cam & Co., but that will probably have to do with how well Carolina’s WR1 DJ Moore performs come game time. And the truth is, it feels like Moore was good ages ago and he’s now just a shell of himself. With Cam back Moore was able to finish with a 7-5-50-1 line in Week 11 and 16.0 PPR points against Washington. Prior to that, though, he had finished in the WR2 realm just once since Week 5 (included). Ugh. Tons of fantasy GMs will believe in the reality of that W11 rebound and bet on Moore against Miami, though Xavien Howard will be waiting for the wideout on the other side and that should scare pretty much everyone off playing Moore this weekend.</p>
<p id="OgzMlg">Howard is in the top-4 in routes defended with 445 already to his name. Only 23 players have reached 400+ this season, and Xavien Howard has dealt with the fourth-most targets in those routes having faced 64 passes already. Howard, though, has allowed only 57.8% of those to end in receptions for 456 yards. Obviously, the numbers feel large but that’s a consequence of the super-heavy volume he’s facing. On the larger picture, though, Howard is allowing just 7.1 Y/T and 1.85 FP/Target, both marks sitting above average levels of play among CB/S players with 350+ routes defended. While the touchdowns he’s allowed are already at six, that’s again mostly because of the vast amount of targets faced. Newton has the ability to challenge defenders deep and Moore is capable of pulling those catches off, but Cam will rush the rock on some of those vertical field-stretching plays limiting Moore’s upside and giving Howard some room to put the clamps on DJ.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/11/26/22800172/week-12-wr-cb-matchups-who-to-target-and-avoid-in-nfl-dfs-lineupschapulana2021-11-25T13:50:06-05:002021-11-25T13:50:06-05:00TE Rankings for Week 12
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<img alt="Buffalo Bills v Tennessee Titans" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-pH_UDcOrmmhg2_RVeAWsR9qubI=/0x0:4858x3239/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70192866/1349446210.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Heath ranks the safety blankets.</p> <p id="AV2iVu">No Travis Kelce just looks really, really weird atop the weekly rankings. The man has just been a fixture in that perch for such a long time. And I don’t mean to be morbid, but when the 32-year-old isn’t playing anymore, this is going to be a collection of sad souls to rank.</p>
<p id="Oj3KVy">No Adam Trautman is a bummer this week, as he was beginning to establish himself with Trevor Siemian under center.</p>
<p id="qtd8TJ">The big news is the possible return of Logan Thomas for Washington, so stay tuned to his status leading up to game time. If he doesn’t go, John Bates would be a defensible TE2 play. And if you’re into desperation, you can look to the Saints backup tight ends in Juwan Johnson or Nick Vannett. But that’s really, really digging deep.</p>
<p id="uzeAip">As always, chime in with a comment or question if you have them! Hope everyone is enjoying a rest day today!</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2021/11/25/22802204/2021-fantasy-football-rankings-tight-ends-in-week-12Heath Capps2021-11-25T09:45:00-05:002021-11-25T09:45:00-05:00QB Rankings for Week 12
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<img alt="Houston Texans v Tennessee Titans" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nr5S5EwWnlIZJnxl5tMhAsbcVZs=/0x0:3194x2129/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70192164/1355306757.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Silas Walker/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Heath ranks the gunslingers.</p> <p id="H2HnRX">No Patrick Mahomes this week, thank the <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a> gods. Did anyone else enjoy the Jekyll and Hyde performances of Week 10 (36.2 points) and Week 11 (8.5 points) as much as I did? Yikes. Let’s hope Mahomes gets right for the stretch run.</p>
<p id="rHtapE">Kyler Murray is also on bye, fresh off of missing three weeks where Colt McCoy managed to secure two wins for Arizona. Hopefully the rest does Murray some good, and he can return in full force in Week 13 for the stretch run.</p>
<p id="GVUBJG">One note that’s too long for the chart below—the Colts have allowed 25 passing scores, most in the league. Indy represents the only team that Ryan Tannehill has passed for more than a single score against, and he managed three TDs against them twice. Indy has also recently benefitted from facing Josh Johnson (3 TDs) and Mike White (1 TD) in Week 9, and Trevor Lawrence in Week 10 (zero TDs). They also got a bagel from Davis Mills in Week 6. I’m just sayin’, it’s a pretty easy-looking list, one highlighted by multiple backup gunslingers. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tom Brady goes bonkers this week, and I think you can argue his floor over Lamar Jackson (returning from illness) and Josh Allen (volatile).</p>
<p id="JMCS5i">Below are further news and notes for Week 12. As always, chime in with comments or questions as you have them. Happy Turkey day to all, or happy whatever you celebrate. Either way, hopefully you’re enjoying some rest today!</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2021/11/25/22796980/2021-fantasy-football-rankings-quarterbacks-for-week-12Heath Capps2021-11-25T08:27:44-05:002021-11-25T08:27:44-05:00NFL DFS plays for Thanksgiving Day
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<img alt="Denver Broncos v Dallas Cowboys" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3pq_4Qn7g4CMzM0TnP_7n1f26tM=/0x0:3318x2212/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70191939/1351876464.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>What better way to celebrate Thanksgiving than to play a little NFL DFS while eating an unhealthy amount of food!</p> <p id="wVUC0Q">It’s that time of the year again where there are ruthless arguments about what foods belong at Thanksgiving. Despite what Matthew Judon of the <a href="https://www.patspulpit.com/">New England Patriots</a> said this week, mac and cheese is an elite side at Thanksgiving as long as it is made correctly. Turkey is fine on Thanksgiving if you make sauce or gravy with it, and ham does provide more of a savory flavor. Green bean casserole can just remove itself from the menu entirely and I’m not going to go out of my way to eat cranberry sauce. Now that you’ve come to my TED talk, let’s get into the other exciting part of Thanksgiving: football.</p>
<p id="p02st9">To have more fun while stuffing your face full of food, you can partake in NFL DFS. Some people enjoy the Thanksgiving slate due to it being a three-game slate where taking risks is encouraged. Stacking isn’t absolutely necessary on a small slate like this, but it is one way you could differentiate yourself from other people who are playing random guys at each position. While I’ll be stacking certain players, I wanted to give you a few players at each position that I’m liking on Thursday’s main slate on Thanksgiving.</p>
<h3 id="noWtvI">Favorite Plays</h3>
<h4 id="XCCdnz">Josh Allen ($7,800)</h4>
<p id="vgBu1W">The highest-priced quarterback on Thursday’s slate is Josh Allen of the <a href="https://www.buffalorumblings.com/">Buffalo Bills</a>. Allen has been inconsistent this season, but he does give us some upside with his legs. Also, the <a href="https://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/">New Orleans Saints</a> have a pass-funneling defense, and the Bills don’t run the ball often anyways, setting Allen up for a busy night on Thursday. There isn’t a team in the league that has given up more points to QBs in the past four weeks than the Saints. Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but two games this season, giving us a solid floor through the air. A couple of passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown could make Allen the highest-scoring quarterback on Thanksgiving. If you’re going to use Allen, you’ll need to save salary throughout your lineup as he’s $900 more expensive than the next most expensive quarterback.</p>
<h4 id="ngHoB9">Dak Prescott ($6,900)</h4>
<p id="WCl4cY">Dak Prescott comes in as the second-highest priced quarterback at $6,900 on DraftKings. Prescott is coming off of a woeful performance in Week 11 where he finished with a season-worst 5.6 DraftKings points against the <a href="https://www.arrowheadpride.com">Kansas City Chiefs</a>. To be fair, the offensive line of the <a href="https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/">Dallas Cowboys</a> was atrocious sans Tyron Smith, and the Cowboys were without Amari Cooper for the entire game and CeeDee Lamb for the second half. Given that Prescott is one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, I expect him to bounce back in Week 12 against the <a href="https://www.silverandblackpride.com/">Las Vegas Raiders</a>. While I like Prescott a lot on Thanksgiving, he gets even more of a boost if Lamb can clear the league’s concussion protocol in time for Thursday’s contest.</p>
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<img alt="Baltimore Ravens v Chicago Bears" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MxxFLh373PeoJpUl7bC84yGQZBk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23042806/1355192587.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="61wnlF">Andy Dalton ($5,500)</h4>
<p id="NKqFP7">Yeah, it’s never pretty starting Andy Dalton in any form of <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a>. However, if you're someone that wants to save salary at quarterback, Dalton appears to be the best option for under $6,000. Justin Fields has been ruled out for the <a href="https://www.windycitygridiron.com/">Chicago Bears</a> on Thursday after suffering a ribs injury in Week 11. In relief of Fields last week, Dalton recorded 16 DraftKings points versus the <a href="https://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/">Baltimore Ravens</a>. Even though he wasn’t efficient in Week 11 (completing 11 of his 23 attempts), Dalton does get the putrid <a href="https://www.prideofdetroit.com/">Detroit Lions</a> defense on Thanksgiving. In what could be an ugly contest, making Dalton your quarterback in your lineups is one way to create some excitement for a game between the Bears and the Lions.</p>
<h4 id="MyRIL1">David Montgomery ($6,000)</h4>
<p id="QB39rg">The most popular running back on Thursday is likely going to be David Montgomery — and for good reason. In his first two games back from injured reserve, Montgomery has carried the ball a total of 27 times against two tough defenses in the Ravens and the <a href="https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/">Pittsburgh Steelers</a>. Montgomery now gets a Lions team that is surrendering the third-most points to running backs on DraftKings. Also, Montgomery hasn’t found the end zone in his first two games back from injury, which I expect to change on Thursday. His last touchdown came in Week 4 versus Detroit, where he rushed for 106 yards and two touchdowns. </p>
<h4 id="eed0cq">Tony Pollard ($5,600)</h4>
<p id="QRH6bz">During last week’s dismal showing versus the Chiefs, Ezekiel Elliott got a little banged up after being tackled awkwardly to the ground, injuring his knee. Elliott says that he’ll be able to play through the injury, but on a short week, the Cowboys may elect to use his running mate a bit more in Week 12. Tony Pollard is a capable running back himself, and he also provides value in the passing game. Elliott is the most expensive running back at $8,000 and I wouldn’t fault anyone for playing him with his touchdown upside. However, Pollard is a nice way to pivot off of Elliott as he can return value with his receiving and ability to break off big runs. The Raiders allow the seventh-most DraftKings points to running backs this season so the opportunity presents itself for both Elliott and Pollard to be viable on Thursday, especially if Lamb is ruled out.</p>
<h4 id="brUpm4">Tony Jones Jr. ($4,000)</h4>
<p id="iLfCPk">At the time this article is being written, Alvin Kamara has been ruled out for the Saints, while Mark Ingram holds a questionable tag. If Kamara and Ingram are both sidelined on Thursday night, then Tony Jones Jr. would be the next man up for New Orleans. Playing running backs against the Bills hasn’t been a consistently fruitful endeavor this season, but the <a href="https://www.stampedeblue.com/">Indianapolis Colts</a> just showed with Jonathan Taylor that if you can stay close with Buffalo, you can have success running the ball. While Jones isn’t nearly the talent that Taylor is, we don’t need him to be at only $4,000. Even if the Saints do find themselves playing from behind, Jones will be in line for a fair share of targets from Trevor Siemian.</p>
<h4 id="jPWMYk">Stefon Diggs ($7,900)</h4>
<p id="YEiCYV">It’s safe to say that Stefon Diggs has gotten out of his lull from earlier in the season. Diggs has scored five touchdowns in his past five games, with 5+ receptions in four out of his last five games as well. While people could be nervous with Marshon Lattimore potentially shadowing Diggs, the Saints have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers this season. Once again, New Orleans has a strong run defense and Buffalo doesn’t run the ball consistently, so Diggs should be busy on Thursday night. If you’re someone that wants to be different from those that stack Diggs with Allen, you could use one or more of Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, or Dawson Knox instead.</p>
<h4 id="tNY1wN">Michael Gallup/Cedrick Wilson ($5,900/$3,500)</h4>
<p id="56BpIj">In a quick turn of events, the Cowboys are now optimistic that Lamb suits up on Thursday versus the Raiders. Lamb sustained a concussion on Sunday against Kansas City, but he was able to practice for Dallas on Wednesday. While we await the official word of Lamb’s status, I still like Michael Gallup quite a lot at his price. Gallup will operate as either the No. 1 or No. 2 wideout in the offense with Cooper still out for the Cowboys. I might like Gallup even more if Lamb is in as the Raiders could focus their attention on the second-year standout. And if you’re someone that loves to take fliers on guys, Cedrick Wilson will be either the No. 2 or No. 3 wide receiver for Dallas depending on Lamb’s official status on Thursday.</p>
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<img alt="Baltimore Ravens v Chicago Bears" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0-vUMaJKKA1cCHjp6oqULYSiLG0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23042810/1354725015.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="nFeDS1">Darnell Mooney ($5,700)</h4>
<p id="2SYtCd">Besides Fields being ruled out, the other notable news out of Chicago is that Allen Robinson is doubtful for Thursday’s contest. Robinson is trending toward missing his second straight game, which makes Darnell Mooney a massive value at his current price. Mooney stepped into the No. 1 role for the Bears in Week 11, where he hauled in five of his team-high 16 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. While you hope that he can bring in more of his targets, it’s nice to see him have a large target share — along with big-play ability — regardless of what quarterback is operating the offense. Mooney is going to be among the highest-owned wide receivers, so Marquise Goodwin is someone you could pivot to if you need the salary relief.</p>
<h4 id="crq4fF">Amon-Ra St. Brown ($4,200)</h4>
<p id="Xr8Ttk">I have a feeling that one of the wide receivers on the Saints could explode and be the screaming value on the slate. However, there’s also Amon-Ra St. Brown, who should be in a positive game script most weeks. St. Brown has seen a more consistent role in recent weeks with 22 targets in his past four games. Regardless of how you feel about Jared Goff, he’s an upgrade over Tim Boyle. Goff is going to return on Thursday after missing last week’s contest against the <a href="https://www.dawgsbynature.com/">Cleveland Browns</a>. The Lions could very well be playing from behind versus the Bears, which bodes well for St. Brown. The rookie wideout has yet to score a touchdown in the NFL, but what better time to achieve your first touchdown than on Thanksgiving?</p>
<h4 id="gr0Kx9">Darren Waller ($6,400)</h4>
<p id="ihDSfd">Darren Waller had his second-best output of the season in Week 11 with 21.6 points on DraftKings against the <a href="https://www.cincyjungle.com/">Cincinnati Bengals</a>. It was the most points he’s scored since Week 1 when he recorded 29.5 points versus the Ravens. With Henry Ruggs no longer in the picture, Waller and Hunter Renfrow are now seeing a massive uptick in usage in recent weeks. The Cowboys allow the 10th most points per game to tight ends on DraftKings, so the matchup is a favorable one. If Dallas jumps out to an early lead or the game remains close, then Waller could be in for one of his extremely productive games on Thanksgiving.</p>
<h4 id="tN0e0T">Dalton Schultz ($5,300)</h4>
<p id="DPUGuZ">A lot of people are going to stack the Cowboys wide receivers with Prescott or use Elliott/Pollard to get exposure to the run game. However, my favorite way to be a bit different on a three-game slate is to use Dalton Schultz. Schultz has carved out a consistent role in Dallas’ offense, earning 5+ targets in all but two games this season. On top of that, the Raiders are the third-worst team to tight ends on the green site, allowing 16.8 points per game. One touchdown from Schultz that doesn’t go to a wide receiver or running back of the Cowboys can give you the edge in tournaments.</p>
<h4 id="gK3B26">Dawson Knox ($4,400)</h4>
<p id="WPyafP">It was a positive sign to see Dawson Knox return to his usual role for the Bills in Week 11. Knox saw 10 targets against the Colts, bringing in six of them for 80 yards. Allen loves to target Knox down the field as the young tight end has been much improved as a receiver this season. Even though Knox spent three weeks on injured reserve, he’s still third on the team in red-zone targets. So if the Bills can find themselves having multiple possessions in the red zone, then Knox is a prime candidate to score. Using Knox is a viable way to be different from those that use Diggs.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/11/25/22798310/nfl-dfs-best-plays-for-draftkings-thanksgiving-slateSkyler Carlin2021-11-24T14:00:00-05:002021-11-24T14:00:00-05:00RB Rankings for Week 12
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<img alt="Indianapolis Colts v Buffalo Bills" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZnayPtZnSlyHuGX9_xi8Cyr8WJw=/0x0:4393x2929/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70188920/1354943285.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Jonathan Taylor is next level.</p> <p id="q2MYz3">Welcome to Week 12 of <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">NFL fantasy</a> football! Here are a few notes on running backs:</p>
<ul>
<li id="7XwqMI">Rams vs. <a href="https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/">Packers</a> could be in Green Bay with snow, so this game could showcase a lot of running.</li>
<li id="yquBwI">Keep an eye on Injuries to Elijah Mitchell, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and especially Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon—Jones could start, but Dillon can be a workhorse in the snow.</li>
<li id="tuyE95">My gut tells me Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Denver go run-heavy this week.</li>
<li id="ggxCoF">We should see some tandem work with Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram II, Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt, Rhamondre Stevenson/Brandon Bolden/Damien Harris, Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard, and Zach Moss/Devin Singletary/Matt Breida</li>
</ul>
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<p id="vS2zmS"> </p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2021/11/24/22800270/2021-fantasy-football-rankings-running-back-for-week-12-jonathan-taylorMark Abell2021-11-24T11:00:00-05:002021-11-24T11:00:00-05:00Riskiest and safest plays for Week 12
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<img alt="Pittsburgh Steelers v Cleveland Browns" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZGWDWUM_m4aSoOnma57iC7bMj0Y=/0x0:3501x2334/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70187759/1351055253.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Antonio gives you the most (and least) volatile players so far this season to help you with your Week 12 start and sit gambles.</p> <p id="7dV6yN">Either you are a risk-averse fantasy owner, or a risk-tolerant one. There is not a unique, written-on-stone way of winning at <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a>, nor a dominant personality of owner that always get the “W.” So no matter which side of the coin you fall on, here are some players that fit the risk range of outcomes to different extents so you can put them in your lineups fully knowing what you’re getting into!</p>
<h2 id="3tbXjI">How does the season look so far (a little primer on volatility)?</h2>
<p id="NYtjsz">To measure how risky a player is, I did something very simple. I calculated the fantasy points per game each player has scored through all of the games he has played and then calculated the standard deviation of his different scores through his games. This way not only do I get his average points per game, but also I get to know how his scores vary between games (how “volatile” they are).</p>
<p id="29dwFl">Having those two numbers, it is easy to see who is putting on good performances constantly, who is having boom-or-bust games, etc. <strong>Through the 11th week of the 2021 season, there are 542 players with at least two games played in fantasy football.</strong> Here is how they are spread in a graph that includes their fantasy points per game and their standard deviation (we’ll call it <em>Volatility </em>from this point on) from their mean values:</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IFgFd88DLd5Vf-dtnH8G7jWzVyg=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23039730/vol121.png">
</figure>
<p id="ATdHc7">Now, that is a goddamn mess. At the top of the chart, you have the best players by points per game. At the left, you can find those who—almost—always score the same points, and at the right those who have wide variations between different games.</p>
<p id="u7V4pV">That chart is fine and all, but it’s much better to break it down and separate players into different categories so you can make decisions easily come lineup-locking time. Let’s get it poppin’!</p>
<h2 id="JMtKmg">Week 12 ultra-volatile players</h2>
<p id="uwySFi"><em>These players have standard deviations from their averages of 10-plus fantasy points. They are as capable of putting on a monster, record-books performance as easily as they can lay a goose egg on any given day. You’re playing with fire here, boy.</em></p>
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<h3 id="q2W5op">WR Mike Williams (<a href="https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/">Los Angeles Chargers</a>)</h3>
<p id="gkfoGk">Mike Will knows the bag will be up for grabs next summer. That’s why he started the year with a freaking set of bangs including four of five performances of 22+ PPR points sandwiching a Week 4 dud of just 2.1 (<em>say what!?</em>) fantasy points. Now, let me put the whole season of Mikey in perspective by splitting it in two halves. MW's first five games: 116.1 total PPR points with an average 10-6-94-1 receiving line; MW's last five games: 44.4 PPR, 5-3-47-0 average line. Yikes. Williams was never a true stud, career-wise, but this was the year to make the leap prior to filling his free-agency bag. And he was absolutely killing it... until he was not. Good for us fantasy GMs, Williams got things right last weekend by putting up a nice 20.7 PPR points and getting into the WR1 realm after missing on it for four consecutive games. That’s cool, but the risk this man has attached to his forehead is absolutely insane. Definitely know what you’re getting into by starting our boy Mike Will in DFS, folks, because it’s not for the faint of heart.</p>
<h2 id="ATD6nn">Week 12 moderately-risky plays</h2>
<p id="w6sihV"><em>These players have standard deviations from their averages between 8 and 10 fantasy points. We’re starting to get into the meat of the player pool, and decisions start to get tougher here.</em></p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EPFz_8XoQsFy0LrHyO_uFx4AX2w=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23039731/vol123.png">
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<h3 id="OqP5MO">QB Josh Allen (<a href="https://www.buffalorumblings.com/">Buffalo Bills</a>)</h3>
<p id="JrUPpd">Josh Allen was a monster through the first third of the season, and even after the Week 7 bye when he came back to a tasty 28.5 FP in Week 8... but he’s not anymore by how things have looked of late. Allen was somehow able to finish as the absolute QB1 in three of his first seven games while packing those finishes into a tight five-game span from Week 3 to Week 8. The problem is that in the past three weeks of play, though, Allen has looked like a shell of himself. He had his worst outing of the year (11.6 FP) against Jacksonville in Week 9, then rose to a top-3 QB finish with 21.9 FP in Week 10, and put up 17.2 FP against Indy last weekend. That’s pretty much Allen for you these days: a bouncy, risky player with a huge ceiling and a kind-of-solid floor into the top-20 but not much better. Three games in a row for Allen throwing either one or two interceptions ain’t making decisions easier, but he’s thrown for 209+ yards in each of the last three games and is currently on a back-to-back 2-TD throwing streak.</p>
<h2 id="vtsiiU">Week 12 relatively-safe plays</h2>
<p id="u0lVkF"><em>These players have standard deviations from their averages between 5 and 8 fantasy points. This is where most of the rostered players and those that are part of your weekly lineup fall. They can have up and downs in their outcomes, but they mostly produce to their true talent.</em></p>
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<h3 id="Q868M6">RB Najee Harris (<a href="https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/">Pittsburgh Steelers</a>)</h3>
<p id="I9lwFx">While Harris hit the ground walking instead of running as a rook and could only get 5.9 PPR points in his pro debut, he quickly forgot about that stinker and put on a show from Week 2 onwards. Harris has never fallen below a 16.8 PPR tally in any of his next nine games (bye on Week 7) averaging a sky-high 20.8 fantasy points per game since Week 2 (included). The volatility is virtually non-existent at a low 5.6 FP, which is practically unheard of when it comes to studs putting up 20 points on a weekly basis. In fact, Darrell Henderson and Robert Woods are the only other skill-position players with a volatility mark as low as that of Harris while averaging 15+ PPR per game, though they are four FPPG below Harris’ 19.3 fantasy points per game over the full season—yes, including the Week 1 dud. You can’t compare Harris to, say, J-Taylor, but the rookie is keeping up with a bulky 19-carry, 68-yard, 0.5-TD per-game line this season not to mention his pass-catching prowess at a 6-5-34 receiving average on the year.</p>
<h2 id="wDl7bQ">Week 12 ultra-risk-averse plays</h2>
<p id="sy9zwJ"><em>These players have standard deviations from their averages between 0 and 5 fantasy points. Most players fall inside this group as most players either are good, or bad. You know what you’re getting from these players, as they operate as robots on the field putting on heavily consistent performances weekly.</em></p>
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<h3 id="dWVhIF">TE Tyler Higbee (<a href="https://www.turfshowtimes.com/">Los Angeles Rams</a>)</h3>
<p id="ul8ezH">I know Higbee is neither 1) the best tight end out there nor 2) a <em>true</em> lock to put up numbers, thus removing all risks potentially baked into his fantasy equation. But Higbee has been a top-24 tight end at the very least in all but one game this year and that stinker took place all the way back in Week 2. Higbee is getting the proper amount of targets (5.1 per game on the year, 8+ in two of the last four games), has strung five games with 3+ receptions (5 in three of them), has three touchdowns on the season (10 games played), and the receiving yards are pretty much always at 20+ no matter the opposition. Higbee is entering this weekend off a two-game streak of finishing in the TE1 realm with 10.1 and 11.0 PPR points and a combined 15-8-71-1 receiving line, with the touchdown happening in the last game the Rams played back in Week 10 (they went on a bye last weekend).</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/11/24/22800171/fantasy-football-volatility-index-the-riskiest-and-safest-plays-for-nfl-week-12chapulana