Fake Teams - Everything You Need for NFL Week 5The Key Source For Incisive Fantasy Sports Analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50153/fake-fav.png2021-10-10T09:36:35-04:00http://www.faketeams.com/rss/stream/224832272021-10-10T09:36:35-04:002021-10-10T09:36:35-04:00TE Rankings for Week 5
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<p>Heath ranks the safety blankets.</p> <p id="WuVDc7">I sure hope everyone enjoyed CJ Uzomah’s massive troll job against me last week. I assume he read last Thursday’s article, which stated:</p>
<p id="oGWzUO"><em>“It’s safety blanket time, right under the wire for Thursday Night Football! That said, no tight end from the Jaguars or the Bengals made my top 25, so be prepared for Dan Arnold and C.J. Uzomah to have full-fledged breakouts tonight.”</em></p>
<p id="JtEEWZ">Uzomah (5-95-2) finished as the overall TE1 for the week, of course. Thankfully I made some better calls, including pushing Kyle Pitts down to my TE12 (he finished as TE19) and keeping Mike Gesicki locked into the top 10 (he finished as the TE7).</p>
<p id="aI55DK">But enough about last week! We are officially past the quarter pole of the season as soon as the dust settles on Week 5. It’s time to get serious! </p>
<p id="ypyMoQ">Ross Dwelley is a new name this week, given the absence of George Kittle (calf). Cameron Brate, too, should get the lion’s share of targets for Tampa Bay with Rob Gronkowski out. For rankings and more news and notes, check the table below.</p>
<p id="Ks7wYt">By my count, you’re trusting the top seven guys in my rankings this week. After that, you’re rolling the dice and hoping for a touchdown. You’re legitimately streaming after the top seven. Yikes. I’ve kept Tyler Higbee (who played on Thursday) in for reference.</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2021/10/10/22717749/2021-fantasy-football-rankings-tight-ends-for-week-5Heath Capps2021-10-09T16:27:57-04:002021-10-09T16:27:57-04:00George Kittle to IR, will miss three weeks
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<p>The big tight end has a calf injury.</p> <p id="KNbcml">You’ll have to find another tight end for your <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/daily-fantasy-football-lineups-advice">fantasy football lineups</a> this weekend if you were banking on George Kittle:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/49ers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#49ers</a> are placing TE George Kittle (calf) on injured reserve, meaning he's out three games. Rather than having the injury nag him all season, the hope is it settles down and he can be back when eligible.</p>— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1446921853990277121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 9, 2021</a>
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<p id="Qb2EHr">The silver lining for you Kittle owners is that hopefully this means the stud tight end is back and in tip-top health after missing three weeks.</p>
<p id="M3dr9K">After four weeks of action, Kittle’s 27 targets ranks seventh among all tight ends, while his 19 receptions (5th) and 227 yards (4th) were both elite. He had yet to score a touchdown, though, but ranking as the TE12 on the year despite no scores tells you the floor he’s capable of. Stash him everywhere and look for some streaming options on your waiver wire! Zach Ertz (36% rostered on Yahoo) and Tyler Conklin (16% rostered) are viable options who are inserting themselves into their respective offenses more than you’d think.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/10/9/22718211/george-kittle-to-ir-will-miss-three-weeksHeath Capps2021-10-09T08:33:12-04:002021-10-09T08:33:12-04:00WR/CB Matchups for Week 5
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<p>Identifying the best and worst DFS plays at the WR position based on CB matchups for Week 5.</p> <p id="Facr90">When it comes to season-long leagues, your lineup will always feature your top wideouts. You just have to go with your best players no matter what. In <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/">DFS</a> contests, though, you better keep an eye on some of the upcoming WR/CB matchups if you want to really identify the best and worst plays of the upcoming slate of games.</p>
<p id="7ENpWI">With wide receivers being the second-highest scoring position only behind quarterbacks, it’s critical to pick the best possible players at the position if you want to rack up big-time points every week. One important point to consider that most people forget about: different wideouts face different cornerbacks, and different cornerbacks have wildly varying defensive levels.</p>
<p id="U7KvBq">I’m here to highlight some of the best WR/CB matchups to target, and some of the worst WR/CB matchups to avoid for this weekend slate of games.</p>
<h2 id="GiAhzN">Top WR/CB Matchups To Target</h2>
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<h3 id="jCInt0">Josh Reynolds (TEN) vs. Tyson Campbell (JAX)</h3>
<p id="hymt9y">Not what you came here expecting, am I right? Studs are always gonna stud, so you are probably better off starting them than not because the matchups are not <em>that</em> important in their cases. But for a secondary player like Josh Reynolds they can mean the world. Reynolds, if you weren’t paying attention, was the main Titan covering for A.J. Brown/Julio Jones' absences last weekend, and all he did was to log 76 offensive snaps (80%) to finish with a 9-6-59 receiving line. Now, was that incredible? Not entirely, no.</p>
<p id="zu2zJe">Last weekend marked only Reynolds’ second game of the season and he just lined up in 11 snaps back in W2, so the rapport with Ryan Tannehill should keep growing. And it is not that Tennessee signed him this past offseason for nothing (before snatching Julio). On the other end, Tyson Campbell has been one of the worst defenders through four weeks of play. PFF has Campbell projected to face Reynolds 36 times this weekend, and that’s a ridiculously high volume of plays to exploit. Why? Well, because Campbell is surrendering 2.58 (!!!) Yds/Route, allowing a high 68% completion rate to rival QBs, and the most FP/Route (0.47) among CBs with at least 100 routes defended this season. Campbell is also the second-worst corner of that 100-route CB-cohort by PFF Grade.</p>
<h3 id="bl7Ug9">Jaylen Waddle (MIA) vs. Ross Cockrell (TB)</h3>
<p id="39o6ag">It’s been a kinda-bouncy season for rookie Jaylen Waddle, who has put up games of 16.1, 8.8, 16.8, and lastly 6.3 PPR points so far this year. But given the fact that the Fins have been without Tua for stretches (an ongoing situation, by the way) and that the team is missing players all across the board (Will Fuller being the last one to hit IR), it’s not that Waddle hasn’t done enough to at least consider him a viable fantasy play. Waddle sandwiched his first and last outings with two performances in which he went for 8-6-48 and 13—12-58 receiving lines. That, folks, you can’t hate.</p>
<p id="mHWQwU">The Bucs have a rather <em>meh</em> corner in Ross Cockrell. He’s got a fine PFF Grade as the guys over them see it, but the truth is that Cockrell is giving up the third-most FP/Route (0.36) of all CBs with 100+ defended routes this season, allowing 58% of the passes thrown his way to end in receptions, and 1.27 Yds/Route (sixth-worst). Given the slim receiving corps of Miami, the role Waddle has played this season when it comes to his performing levels, and the ceiling he’s shown here and there (he’s just missing on scoring touchdowns) this surely looks like a good matchup for him to thrive this weekend.</p>
<h2 id="XQhgP7">Top WR/CB Matchups To Avoid</h2>
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<h3 id="i4OeEt">JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) vs. Bryce Callahan (DEN)</h3>
<p id="GjgxB5">This matchup has all of the ingredients for JuJu truthers to eat an ‘L’ come Sunday. JuJu has scored 10+ PPR points just once this season, in Week 2, when he logged a nice 7-6-41 line... which was boosted by a fluky three-yard rush that ended in a touchdown for the WR. Had it not been for that carry, Smith-Schuster would still be looking for his first double-digit fantasy tally on the season. On top of that, he’s coming off his worst game of the year (8-2-11) with a measly 3.1 PPR points against the <a href="https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/">Packers</a>.</p>
<p id="vvGtcx">Working for JuJu will be hydro-washed-up QB Ben Roethlisberger. <em>Bad</em>. Working against JuJu will be bonafide-star-cornerback Bryce Callahan. <em>Worse</em>. Callahan’s numbers are simply overwhelming in man coverage. He’s been on the field to cover 116 routes from his assignments, has allowed a stupid 27% of QB-passes to end in completions, is allowing a ridiculous 0.38 Yards/Route (Troy Hill is second already at 0.79, just imagine)... and for our fantasy purposes, he’s limited his covered wideouts to an almost-inexistent 0.07 FP/Route. JuJu has underperformed wildly this season. That won’t change this Sunday.</p>
<h3 id="JFzaoO">DeVonta Smith (PHI) vs. Donte Jackson (CAR)</h3>
<p id="5JyfJt">DeVonta has shown two very different faces so far in his rookie campaign. He’s gone for 19+ PPR points twice (W1 and W4) but in the other two matches, he was a complete disaster finishing with 3.6 and 5.8 fantasy points. The targets, though, were more or less the same as he’s getting 6+ looks per game, but the receptions sucked (2 and 3 in those two duds) while the receiving yardage also stunk (16 and 28 yards). I love QB Jalen Hurts, I love WR DeVonta Smith, but I for the love of God can’t put DVS in my lineup this week considering his ultra-bouncy nature and the man projected to spend most of the day in front of him.</p>
<p id="iMmSDg">Donte Jackson, he of the now-fearsome Panthers, has aligned as the right-corner in almost 70% of the snaps he’s played while Smith has played 50% of his down the left side. The matchup is definitely going to happen. And that’s quite bad news for the young receiver here. Jackson’s PFF Grade is sublime and the fourth-best among CBs with 100+ defended routes. Makes sense, considering Jackson is giving up just 1.02 Yards/Route on a 58% completion rate for only 0.25 FP/Route surrendered to his main cover-wideouts. Also, he’s been burned for just one TD in four games, and it’s not that Smith poses quite the biggest threat on that department.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/10/9/22714102/week-5-wr-cb-matchups-who-to-target-and-avoid-in-nfl-dfs-lineupschapulana2021-10-09T06:30:00-04:002021-10-09T06:30:00-04:00NFL DFS: Week 5 DraftKings picks
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<p>Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level right now and that should continue in Week 5 versus the New York Giants.</p> <p id="vGGtkO">This is going to be an interesting week of NFL <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/">DFS</a> as this is the first week we’ve had with fewer than 13 games on the Main slate. There is a Thursday night game, Sunday night game, Monday night game, and there is a London game that takes place on Sunday morning. Also, we don’t have a handful of the elite offenses to pick players from as the <a href="https://www.turfshowtimes.com/">Los Angeles Rams</a>, <a href="https://www.fieldgulls.com/">Seattle Seahawks</a>, <a href="https://www.buffalorumblings.com/">Buffalo Bills</a>, <a href="https://www.arrowheadpride.com">Kansas City Chiefs</a>, and the <a href="https://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/">Baltimore Ravens</a> are all playing in night games.</p>
<p id="m4uXhp">Given all of that, we have our work cut out for us in Week 5. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t potential high-scoring stacks we can use on Sunday’s main slate. There are only three games on the Main slate that have a current over/under of 50+ points, with the showdown between the <a href="https://www.bigblueview.com/">New York Giants</a> and the <a href="https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/">Dallas Cowboys</a> holding the highest total. While a lot could change between now and Sunday, here are my favorite stacks — and bring-back options — on DraftKings’ Main slate in Week 5.</p>
<h3 id="hfB0Dt">Favorite Stacks</h3>
<h4 id="mn2JlC">DAL: Dak Prescott ($6,900), CeeDee Lamb ($6,200), Amari Cooper ($6,100), Cedrick Wilson ($4,100), Dalton Schultz ($4,400)</h4>
<p id="rshcZm">The Cowboys currently hold the highest projected total at 29.5 points versus the Giants. Dak Prescott has been spectacular this season, throwing three or more touchdowns in three of his four games. Even though Prescott has attempted 27 or fewer passes in each of the past three weeks, he still has a relatively safe floor and he ran for a season-high 35 yards in Week 4. While the Cowboys have been able to lean on the run game in recent weeks, you can get CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper at discounts compared to their usual prices. I’d prefer Lamb between the two due to Cooper battling multiple injuries. Dalton Schultz has emerged as the No. 1 tight end in Dallas as he’s drawn 6+ targets in three out of four games, and he’s found the end zone three times now.</p>
<p id="x3xxqE"><em>Bring-back options: Saquon Barkley ($7,300), Kenny Golladay ($5,900), Sterling Shepard ($5,300), Kadarius Toney ($4,000), Evan Engram ($3,200)</em></p>
<p id="E3EnIl">If you are like me, you expect the Giants to be playing from behind on Sunday. The defense of the Cowboys has looked better than expected to begin the season, but that doesn’t mean you can’t have success against them. New York’s pass-catchers are cheap this week as Kenny Golladay is the most expensive of the bunch, making it easy to stack this game. Sterling Shepard is questionable to play with a hamstring injury, so keep an eye on his status leading up to Sunday. I’m not a big fan of using Evan Engram, but if you need to save salary at tight end, I guess I’m okay with using him. Even if Shepard returns in Week 5, Kadarius Toney earned himself more usage in the offense in Week 4. Saquon Barkley is also an option as he’s beginning to receive a larger workload in recent weeks, and he’s beginning to look more and more like his usual self.</p>
<h4 id="Wpr6mx">MIN: Kirk Cousins ($6,500), Justin Jefferson ($7,700), Adam Thielen ($6,600), K.J Osborn ($3,800), Tyler Conklin ($3,500)</h4>
<p id="iCyosE">Everyone is going to be flocking to the rushing attack of the <a href="https://www.dailynorseman.com/">Minnesota Vikings</a> in their matchup with the <a href="https://www.prideofdetroit.com/">Detroit Lions</a> in Week 5. I’ll have my fair share of Dalvin Cook — or Alexander Mattison if Cook is out — but you can gain some leverage by using the passing game of the Vikings. Outside of last week’s game versus a stingy defense in the <a href="https://www.dawgsbynature.com/">Cleveland Browns</a>, Kirk Cousins had posted 25+ DraftKings points in each of the first three weeks. What is nice about Minnesota’s offense is that we know who the ball is going to as Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen garner the lion's share of the targets. K.J. Osborn and Tyler Conklin are fine pieces to use if you need to save some salary for some of the high-priced studs.</p>
<p id="0QfjDM"><em>Bring-back options: D’Andre Swift ($6,100), Kalif Raymond ($4,800), Quintez Cephus ($4,300), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($3,500)</em></p>
<p id="lR3bKu">The Lions have found themselves playing from behind in each of the first four weeks of the season, and I don’t see that changing this week. While the Vikings aren’t a dominant team, they are capable of getting a lead over the Lions, forcing Jared Goff to put the ball through the air often. D’Andre Swift isn’t having much success on the ground, but he’s gotten 29 targets in the first four weeks, turning that into 23 receptions, 199 yards, and one touchdown. It’s hard to guess which of Detroit’s wideouts is going to emerge as Goff’s favorite target in any given week. If I had to pick between the three, I’d side with Amon-Ra St. Brown after he led the wide receivers with eight targets in Week 4. T.J. Hockenson has been a limited participant in practice, and he could be a game-time decision on Sunday, so you can add him here if he’s able to suit up.</p>
<h4 id="CBGgG2">JAX: Trevor Lawrence ($5,800), Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,700), Laviska Shenault ($4,800), Dan Arnold ($2,900)</h4>
<p id="REXzyW">There aren’t many defenses playing as bad as the <a href="https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/">Tennessee Titans</a>. I don’t want to discredit Zach Wilson, but there’s a reason why his first noteworthy game in the NFL came against these Titans. Tennessee’s defense will draw another rookie signal-caller in Week 5, and I’m rolling with Trevor Lawrence on Sunday. Yes, D.J. Chark is headed to injured reserve, giving Lawrence one fewer wide receiver to target through the air. However, that could lead to more opportunities for Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault, who are both extremely affordable. If you’re someone that likes making a dart throw at the tight end position, Dan Arnold will seemingly have a decent-sized role for the <a href="https://www.bigcatcountry.com/">Jacksonville Jaguars</a> as he enters his second week with the team.</p>
<p id="dvEgl1"><em>Bring-back options: Derrick Henry ($9,000), A.J. Brown ($6,500), Chester Rogers ($3,900), Josh Reynolds ($3,300)</em></p>
<p id="1C4bxx">I only list running backs as bring-back options if I believe they can have ceiling games, and I’m confident that Derrick Henry can steamroll the Jaguars. While this Jacksonville defense is a bit different in terms of personnel, the last time the Jaguars faced the Titans (Week 14 of the 2020 season), Henry galloped for 215 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. A.J. Brown is slated to return in Week 5 while Julio Jones seems to be headed toward being sidelined for the second straight game. Chester Rogers and Josh Reynolds are viable cheap options as they should see expanded roles with Jones trending toward being ruled out.</p>
<h4 id="aWVKeL">NYG: Daniel Jones ($6,000), Kenny Golladay ($5,900), Sterling Shepard ($5,300), Kadarius Toney ($4,000), Evan Engram ($3,200)</h4>
<p id="HUan4G">On the other side of the field of the Cowboys game, Daniel Jones hasn’t looked half bad to begin the season. Jones had his best game of the season in Week 4 as he aired it out for 402 yards and two passing touchdowns en route to defeating the <a href="https://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/">New Orleans Saints</a> to secure New York’s first win of the season. What makes Jones a seemingly safe option in NFL DFS is the fact that he brings a floor with his legs. The former first-round pick is averaging 47 rushing yards per game, and if he can find the end zone on the ground, he can be in for another stellar performance in Week 5. The Giants could be playing catch-up with Prescott and the Cowboys, leading to more opportunities for Jones to produce. As previously mentioned above, it’s easy to get the pass-catching options of the Giants on DraftKings, so stacking them with Jones isn’t tough to do.</p>
<p id="u7iPmQ"><em>Bring-back options: Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000), CeeDee Lamb ($6,200), Amari Cooper ($6,100), Cedrick Wilson ($4,100), Dalton Schultz ($4,400)</em></p>
<p id="i5ySj2">Ezekiel Elliott looks like he has fresh legs to begin the season, scoring 23+ DraftKings points in the past two weeks. While Tony Pollard has a role in the offense, Elliott is still the running back that the Cowboys are leaning on. I’m not against using Pollard as a bring-back option if you don’t have the salary to get up to Elliott. Lamb is $500 cheaper than he was in Week 4, so I’ll take him at a discount despite him having quiet outings in back-to-back games. Cooper is dealing with multiple injuries, but he’s still a favorite target of Prescott’s. Wilson continues to score touchdowns in relief of Michael Gallup, who is still on injured reserve. Schultz is a premier red-zone threat for the Cowboys and he’s forming a rapport with Prescott.</p>
<h4 id="vRSHXk">CIN: Joe Burrow ($6,100), Ja’Marr Chase ($5,800), Tyler Boyd ($5,300), Tee Higgins ($5,000), C.J. Uzomah ($3,000)</h4>
<p id="cSm9dX">It was tough choosing my fifth-favorite stack in Week 5. The <a href="https://www.catscratchreader.com/">Carolina Panthers</a> could be a decent option with Sam Darnold scoring 20+ DraftKings points in each of the first four weeks. However, I’m going to go with Joe Burrow and the <a href="https://www.cincyjungle.com/">Cincinnati Bengals</a> due to them playing in a game with a projected total of 50 points versus the <a href="https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/">Green Bay Packers</a>. The Packers are favored on Sunday, and with Joe Mixon potentially sidelined, Burrow could be asked to air it out more to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. Ja’Marr Chase is Burrow’s favorite option when it comes to scoring touchdowns. On the other hand, Tyler Boyd is a premier option in PPR formats as he’s a reliable option out of the slot for Burrow. Tee Higgins could make his return to the field in Week 5, so he could be worth stacking with Burrow. I’m listing C.J. Uzomah as an option after he exploded for 26.5 DraftKings points in Week 4, but the return of Higgins could put a damper on his usage.</p>
<p id="q4aRj6"><em>Bring-back options: Davante Adams ($8,200), Aaron Jones ($7,900), Randall Cobb ($4,000)</em></p>
<p id="SQMNYZ">Stacking the Packers is extremely easy due to their targets being funneled to a few players. Davante Adams is almost guaranteed to see double-digit targets in every game, and he’s used as a goal-line receiving option when Green Bay gets near the end zone. Even though AJ Dillon is seeing work out of the backfield, Aaron Jones is the No. 1 back on the Packers that should see a consistent workload every week. It feels disgusting listing Randall Cobb, but with Marquez Valdes-Scantling on injured reserve and Allen Lazard failing to earn more targets, Cobb could see a more prominent role moving forward. Cobb showed signs of life in Week 4 as he hauled in five receptions for 69 yards and two touchdowns against the <a href="https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/">Pittsburgh Steelers</a>. </p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/10/9/22715419/nfl-dfs-best-stacks-for-draftkings-week-5-main-slateSkyler Carlin2021-10-08T11:59:00-04:002021-10-08T11:59:00-04:005 Bold NFL Predictions for Week 5
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<p>I’m all in on some of the winless teams this week. </p> <p id="GfqfTc">It’s bold predictions time with Mark again! Be sure to leave your BOLD predictions in the comments!</p>
<h3 id="Co53vR">1.) Zach Wilson is a top 10 quarterback.</h3>
<p id="hhh1rm"><strong>Justification</strong>: Crazy right? Well he proved some mettle last week with a solid performance and this week he faces a porous Atlanta secondary who has allowed the fourth-most points to opposing QBs. This could be a very real chance for back-to-back strong efforts from Wilson. </p>
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<h3 id="5hRsBk">2.) Marvin Jones is a top 12 wide receiver.</h3>
<p id="q895zJ"><strong>Justification:</strong> Jacksonville is in shambles but there is a part of me that thinks the players rally not around Urban but around Trevor Lawrence, and really shine. Seeing the social media posts has me thinking the players exceed expectations IN SPITE of what happened last weekend in Columbus, Ohio. The Jags play Tennessee, who have a not so great secondary. </p>
<h3 id="XlkC17">3.) Austin Ekeler finishes outside the top 15 running backs.</h3>
<p id="5wCRpD"><strong>Justification</strong>: I have been somewhat on the Ekeler train this year and really like not only his skills but the offensive line he has in front of him. Problem is, they face one of the deadliest defensive lines with Myles Garrett and Jadaveon Clowney (pending injury), not to mention Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at linebacker. I think the <a href="https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/">Chargers</a> utilize Justin Herbert heavily this week. </p>
<h3 id="xU51aP">4.) Bills vs. Chiefs over/under is 56.5, give me the under at 49.<strong> </strong>
</h3>
<p id="aRj7uT"><strong>Justification:</strong> Taking the under in either a Bills or Chiefs games seems unwise, but I sincerely think we see the Bills defense stack up and we get a rare strong showing from the Chiefs defense as well. Call this supremely gut-oriented, but I think this game falls short of the exceeding over/under expectations. </p>
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<img alt="Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cJUFD1zVX1nNAZC3-Kt1R_xxcfY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22910336/461359512.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="fo9bqn">5.) Jack Doyle is a top 12 tight end.</h3>
<p id="KezSq7"><strong>Justification:</strong> The Colts have decreasingly utilized Doyle since Week 1, but I think we see a rebound against a Baltimore team that, for years now, has allowed some serious yardage and red zone targets to opposing tight ends. Doyle had back issues last week but there have not been many rumblings about that this week. He has yet to get on the scoring board this season and I think this is the week that happens.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/10/8/22715750/5-bold-predictions-for-week-5-zach-wilsonMark Abell2021-10-08T08:12:35-04:002021-10-08T08:12:35-04:00Riskiest and safest plays for Week 5
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<figcaption>Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Antonio gives you the most (and least) volatile players so far this season to help you with your Week 5 start and sit gambles.</p> <p id="7dV6yN">Either you are a risk-averse fantasy owner, or a risk-tolerant one. There is not a unique, written-on-stone way of winning at <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a>, nor a dominant personality of owner that always get the “W.” So no matter which side of the coin you fall on, here are some players that fit the risk range of outcomes to different extents so you can put them in your lineups fully knowing what you’re getting into!</p>
<h2 id="3tbXjI">How does the season look so far (a little primer on volatility)?</h2>
<p id="NYtjsz">To measure how risky a player is, I did something very simple. I calculated the fantasy points per game each player has scored through all of the games he has played and then calculated the standard deviation of his different scores through his games. This way not only do I get his average points per game, but also I get to know how his scores vary between games (how “volatile” they are).</p>
<p id="29dwFl">Having those two numbers, it is easy to see who is putting on good performances constantly, who is having boom-or-bust games, etc. <strong>Through the fourth week of the 2021 season, there are 415 players with two games played in fantasy football.</strong> Here is how they are spread in a graph that includes their fantasy points per game and their standard deviation (we’ll call it <em>Volatility </em>from this point on) from their mean values:</p>
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<p id="ATdHc7">Now, that is a goddamn mess. At the top of the chart, you have the best players by points per game. At the left, you can find those who—almost—always score the same points, and at the right those who have wide variations between different games.</p>
<p id="u7V4pV">That chart is fine and all, but it’s much better to break it down and separate players into different categories so you can make decisions easily come lineup-locking time. Let’s get it poppin’!</p>
<h2 id="JMtKmg">Week 5 ultra-volatile players</h2>
<p id="uwySFi"><em>These players have standard deviations from their averages of 10-plus fantasy points. They are as capable of putting on a monster, record-books performance as easily as they can lay a goose egg on any given day. You’re playing with fire here, boy.</em></p>
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<h3 id="q2W5op">WR Amari Cooper (<a href="https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/">Dallas Cowboys</a>)</h3>
<p id="gkfoGk">The last time we saw Cooper a few days ago facing the Panthers, he scared the hell out of us with shares of him. Cooper was forced out of the game seemingly injured, everything looked bad, and then it turned out it was all good as Cooper <em>returned to the field to score a touchdown</em> while playing 29 snaps for a 48% snap share. All things considered, that was a neat development. Cooper dropped his second-highest score of the season on Carolina to the tune of 15.9 PPR points being part of just half of the Cowboys offensive players, so it’s not that we gotta be too worried...</p>
<p id="LCcUMt">Or should we? Amari has been banged up from Day 1 of the season. His Week 1 performance was absolutely astonishing (WR1, OVR1) as he completed a 16-13-139-2 performance for 38.9 FP. Then, he went all the way to nightmarish levels of play that saw him put up back-to-back duds of 5.4 and 5.6 PPR points, and lastly, he was able to drop 15.9 FP. If that’s not a wild set of outcomes, you tell me what it is. The targets are low, the yardage is not high, and the touchdowns are too scarce to trust. Cooper could explode for a 40+ PPR game, but his couple of putrid performances earlier last month give me pause.</p>
<h2 id="ATD6nn">Week 5 moderately-risky plays</h2>
<p id="w6sihV"><em>These players have standard deviations from their averages between 7 and 10 fantasy points. We’re starting to get into the meat of the player pool, and decisions start to get tougher here.</em></p>
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<h3 id="OqP5MO">RB Cordarrelle Patterson (<a href="https://www.thefalcoholic.com/">Atlanta Falcons</a>)</h3>
<p id="JrUPpd">Too much digital ink has been poured all across the internet regarding Cordarrelle Patterson's out-of-left-field start to the year. Patterson, in case you don’t know, is this guy who has become the GOAT Returner, but that’s it. That’s it, until this season, it feels like. Patterson is now a bonafide fantasy star with league-winning upside, believe it or not. Patt has 82.4 PPR points through four games and is averaging 20.6 FPPG this season. <em>Say what?!</em></p>
<p id="iMR1dm">What you hear, brothers and sisters. But looking a little bit under the surface, things are not that rosy. Patterson is <em>moderately</em>-risky because he’s been unstoppable so far and there is nothing you can argue about that. But he is moderately-<em>risky</em> because he’s playing fewer than 40% of the Falcons offensive snaps, he only has 45 touches over the four games played, and that means he’s averaging a stupid 1.83 FP/Touch. Just for context, Derrick Henry is averaging 0.81, Austin Ekeler 1.27, and Najee Harris 0.89. If you think Cordarrelle is good for 3-TD games weekly, cool. But please reconsider your decision to start him as freely as you were thinking about before reading this.</p>
<h2 id="vtsiiU">Week 5 relatively-safe plays</h2>
<p id="u0lVkF"><em>These players have standard deviations from their averages between 4 and 7 fantasy points. This is where most of the rostered players and those that are part of your weekly lineup fall. They can have up and downs in their outcomes, but they mostly produce to their true talent.</em></p>
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<h3 id="Q868M6">TE Dawson Knox (<a href="https://www.buffalorumblings.com/">Buffalo Bills</a>)</h3>
<p id="I9lwFx">You know the tight end drill. Every year, somehow, somewhere, inexplicably, a player pops up at the position and takes the league by storm. Last season it was Robert Tonyan, and this season it looks like we’re in for a wild Dawson Knox ride. Other surprising players <em>(ayo Dalton Schultz!)</em> are putting up numbers too, but they’ve been way shakier than Knox. The Bills TE ranks sixth in total PPR so far among players at his position, his volatility sits at just 4.9-FPPG, and he leads the league in TDs with 4 scores already.</p>
<p id="x87vEN">Knox had a kinda-rough outing in Week 1 in which he got to 8.1 PPR points (already TE2 levels of play) playing just 48 (56%) snaps. After that, though, Knox has been a steady TE1 with scores of 9.7, 14.9, and 20.7 PPR points in the past three weeks. He’s catching targets with gusto, has hauled in 4+ in three of the four games he’s played, has topped 35 yards in all those three matches, and has scored either one or two touchdowns three weeks in a row. The TE position calls for moderation and some tamed expectations (unless you can start Kelce/Waller), but Knox has looked the part so far this season and that shouldn’t change.</p>
<h2 id="wDl7bQ">Week 5 ultra-risk-averse plays</h2>
<p id="sy9zwJ"><em>These players have standard deviations from their averages between 0 and 4 fantasy points. Most players fall inside this group as most players either are good, or bad. You know what you’re getting from these players, as they operate as robots on the field putting on heavily consistent performances weekly.</em></p>
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<h3 id="dWVhIF">QB Jalen Hurts (<a href="https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/">Philadelphia Eagles</a>)</h3>
<p id="ul8ezH">I have definitely rooted for Hurts since the day he got drafted. I have been a Day 1 stan. I projected him to do wonders this season. But this?! This thing he’s doing right now?! Daaaaaamn. Hurts is quarterbacking a team barren of talent, as simple as that, yet he’s somehow finished all four games played to date inside the QB1 realm. He’s yet to drop below the 20-FP mark (min. score 20.8 in W2) while he’s finished with 27+ FP in W1 and W4. Hurts is absolutely nuts.</p>
<p id="4UJL0N">And it’s not that Hurts is a boom/bust player because of a wild style of play; far from it. Hurts is completing 65% of his pass attempts, averaging 292 passing yards per game, throwing 2 TDs per outing, and has only been intercepted <em>twice</em>. Seriously. Oh, and I forgot to mention the best part of Hurts’ game: rushing the rock. Hurts has accounted for 34 carries so far, and he’s converted that volume into 226 rush yards and a touchdown. He is second in carries and rushing yards only behind Lamar Jackson, ranks QB3 four games into the year, and he’s sitting on a sky-high floor with upside for a 30+ FP explosion any day.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/10/8/22710365/fantasy-football-volatility-index-the-riskiest-and-safest-plays-for-week-5chapulana2021-10-07T16:00:00-04:002021-10-07T16:00:00-04:00QB Rankings for Week 5
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<img alt="Arizona Cardinals v Los Angeles Rams" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/h7PX2XY44IbzcQvrSwy5yICiO4A=/0x0:3725x2483/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69965855/1344813625.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Heath ranks the gunslingers.</p> <p id="HvFXUU">Doesn’t Matthew Stafford look beautiful in a Rams uniform? Outside of the purgatory that is commonly referred to as “Detroit?” Everybody say amen.</p>
<p id="8z3aGg">Stafford is a top 5 guy this week. Don’t miss the boat.</p>
<p id="IGTutt">Teddy Bridgewater returned to practice today (Thursday) from a concussion. Ben Roethlisberger has a hip injury and missed practice on Wednesday—but you shouldn’t be starting him anyway.</p>
<p id="yjcgaU">There’s more news and notes below...chime in with your hot takes for Week 5, ladies and gents! And let me know where I went wrong in the rankings...</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2021/10/7/22714754/2021-fantasy-football-rankings-quarterbacks-for-week-5Heath Capps2021-10-07T07:03:42-04:002021-10-07T07:03:42-04:00NFL DFS: DraftKings Showdown Picks for Rams at Seahawks
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<figcaption>Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Darrell Henderson is primed for a rewarding performance against the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night.</p> <p id="92A9so">Fans of the NFL will be treated to what should be an exhilarating matchup between the <a href="https://www.turfshowtimes.com/">Los Angeles Rams</a> and the <a href="https://www.fieldgulls.com/">Seattle Seahawks</a> on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. Most of the attention will be on Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson, and rightfully so. Both of them play the most important position in football, and both of them are off to hot starts for their respective teams. While the quarterback position is the most vital in real-life football, that has not been the case for Thursday showdown slates on DraftKings this season.</p>
<p id="OVLr6u">In the first four Thursday night games, only one quarterback has led the game in scoring on DraftKings (Sam Darnold in Week 3 vs. the <a href="https://www.battleredblog.com/">Houston Texans</a>). What is the reasoning behind this? Simply put, running backs and wide receivers have a likelier chance to explode on DraftKings due to full-point PPR scoring, one point per 10+ yards gained, and 100+ yard bonuses. Taking that into consideration, I’ll likely refrain from listing quarterbacks as a potential captain on DraftKings unless I am ABSOLUTELY confident in a quarterback leading all players in scoring. With that knowledge now bouncing around in your noggin, let’s take a look at who I’m intrigued by on DraftKings’ Showdown slate for Thursday night’s clash between the Rams and the Seahawks.</p>
<h3 id="OdlVT4">Captain Spot Considerations:</h3>
<h4 id="NY1mNP">Darrell Henderson Jr. ($12,600)</h4>
<p id="JgQTsu">The defense of the Seahawks has been allergic to slowing down just about everything this season. When it comes to stopping the run, Seattle’s defense has given up 113+ rushing yards in each game, including three straight games of 140+ rushing yards allowed. Darrell Henderson Jr. is the lead back for the Rams, and he’s in a prime spot to gash a defense that is permitting the second-most points per game to running backs on DraftKings. In the two games that Henderson has started and finished this season, he’s out-touched Sony Michel 36-4. Los Angeles should have plenty of success on offense, whether it be through the air or on the ground. With everyone flocking toward the aerial attack of the Rams, Henderson could have a stellar performance, especially if he can reach the 100+ rushing yard bonus.</p>
<h4 id="qm3WHc">Robert Woods ($11,400)</h4>
<p id="7Y0bHQ">A Robert Woods game is on the brink of existence this season, I can just feel it in my bones. We got bailed out in Week 4 when Woods scored a garbage-time touchdown versus the <a href="https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/">Arizona Cardinals</a>. Even with the touchdown, Woods still didn’t have an outing we’re accustomed to seeing from the do-it-all wideout. While I do like Cooper Kupp in this game, Woods comes at a way more affordable price on the green site. Also, even though coach speak can be misleading at times, Sean McVay has acknowledged that he needs to get Woods more involved in the offense moving forward. Of course, you’ll likely want to have Stafford as a flex play to correlate with Woods if you use him as your captain. If Kupp and Woods both have big games against the Seahawks, you can get the upper hand on the field by having Woods for a cheaper price.</p>
<h4 id="0o6HjF">Tyler Lockett ($14,400)</h4>
<p id="qh5rvl">Can we just get a week where both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are top scorers at wide receiver in <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a>? In the first two weeks of the season, it was Lockett who was leading the Seahawks in receiving. However, in the past two games, it has been Metcalf garnering more attention from Wilson in the aerial attack. Jalen Ramsey isn’t shadowing opposing wide receivers as much these days, but after seeing DeAndre Hopkins have success when Ramsey wasn’t on him last week, I expect the Rams to have Ramsey on Metcalf as much as possible. If Chris Carson is ruled out for Seattle, the Seahawks could lean on their passing game a bit more than usual on Thursday night. Seeing that Aaron Donald has historically terrorized the Seahawks, I expect Seattle to get the ball out quick to Lockett and Metcalf, letting them make plays after the catch. Similar to Woods, if you have Lockett as a captain, just insert Wilson into your lineups as a flex play to correlate them.</p>
<h3 id="Fk90pY">Flex Spot Considerations:</h3>
<h4 id="Hz5XGL">Van Jefferson Jr. ($4,800)</h4>
<p id="I0yM72">It was exciting to see DeSean Jackson finally connect on a deep ball from Stafford in Week 3 versus the <a href="https://www.bucsnation.com/">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</a>. Despite Jackson’s big-play ability, Van Jefferson Jr. has been the clear No. 3 wide receiver on the Rams. Jefferson has a 73.3% route participation and has recorded 12.6 yards per target through the first four weeks. It can be tough to trust a wide receiver not named Kupp or Woods on the Rams, but Jefferson has earned himself a role in Los Angeles’ high-octane offense. The second-year wideout has received 6+ targets in the past two weeks and he led all wide receivers on the Rams with 21 DraftKings points in Week 4. Tyler Higbee ($5,600) is a nice pivot from Jefferson if you’re not confident in Jefferson having another productive showing in Week 5.</p>
<h4 id="2Du3JS">Gerald Everett ($4,000)/Will Dissly ($3,800)</h4>
<p id="8JKQMx">Ladies and gentlemen, we have a revenge game on our hands. I’m not into revenge-game narratives, I’m merely just informing everyone that a player is squaring off against his former team. As long as Gerald Everett gets activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list before Thursday’s contest, he should be in line to return after missing last week’s game against the <a href="https://www.ninersnation.com/">San Francisco 49ers</a>. Everett is a former member of the Rams who left Los Angeles in hopes to find an offense that utilizes him more. While Everett has been fairly quiet in his first three games with the Seahawks, this is a perfect time for him to showcase his talent. Tight ends have had decent success against the Rams in 2021, averaging 16.05 DraftKings points per game (10th most in the NFL). If Everett isn’t cleared, then Will Dissly becomes a viable option for $200 cheaper.</p>
<h4 id="CIGSN0">Matt Gay ($3,600)</h4>
<p id="qWZcAT">Using a kicker can sometimes feel disgusting in daily fantasy, but they are viable sources of scoring on any given slate. For instance, in the Thursday night battle between the <a href="https://www.hogshaven.com/">Washington Football Team</a> and the <a href="https://www.bigblueview.com/">New York Giants</a> in Week 2, Graham Gano and Dustin Hopkins combined for 36 DraftKings points. Given the low salaries kickers receive, they are nice salary-relief options. If you forced me to pick between Matt Gay or Jason Myers on Thursday night, I’d side with Gay. Even though Myers has a fitting last name for the month that Halloween falls in, Gay has yet to score fewer than nine points on DraftKings in the first four weeks.</p>
<h4 id="xoNrVn">Alex Collins ($3,200)</h4>
<p id="SoSKMW">Besides Everett, we are awaiting news regarding Carson. The bruising running back for the Seahawks is reportedly dealing with a neck injury and he has yet to practice in any fashion this week. Seattle has listed Carson as questionable, but with it being a short week, I don’t expect Carson to suit up versus the Rams. In the event that Carson is inactive, Alex Collins is in line to be the starter. Collins saw an expanded role in Week 4, where he turned 12 total touches into 78 yards and a touchdown. There aren’t many times you can get a potential starting running back at $3,200 on DraftKings on a Showdown slate, so I expect him to be popular if Carson is ruled out. Even if Carson does happen to play for the Seahawks on Thursday, you could get Collins with even lower ownership, making him a nice flex option.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/10/7/22712281/nfl-dfs-draftkings-showdown-picks-for-rams-at-seahawksSkyler Carlin