Fake Teams - Everything you need to know about the first base position for 2021 fantasy baseballThe Key Source For Incisive Fantasy Sports Analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50153/fake-fav.png2021-02-05T13:00:00-05:00http://www.faketeams.com/rss/stream/220261152021-02-05T13:00:00-05:002021-02-05T13:00:00-05:00Staff Post: First Basemen to avoid
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<img alt="Wild Card Round - Houston Astros v Minnesota Twins - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7uhhZOp-tGVB0cehHVqfWee7siw=/0x0:4974x3316/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68775847/1278052804.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers tell you who to consider fading at first base in 2021.</p> <p id="vhkR5T">Before you wig out about some of the names here, let me encourage you to consider this as the flip side of the coin. Even among pundits who frequently offer their opinions on players, there are disagreements. Here at Fake Teams, we have never tried to control who targets or avoids what player to make it seem as though we are all in agreeance. Instead, we take pride in offering varying viewpoints. This allows you, the gamer, the ability to make your own decision. And as always, we’d love to haggle in the comments about anyone you disagree with. With no further ado...</p>
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<img alt="American League Wild Card Game 2: Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fNkD6799MCXOWUZQA74A4-jLGik=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22283873/1228814364.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="Xmenxl">Vladimir Guerrero Jr., <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> (Garrett Atkins)</h3>
<p id="MNctfk"><em>NFBC ADP: 57.38</em></p>
<p id="Ys3tME">One day, it’ll happen, right? That statement seems a bit familiar. This selection of Vlad as an avoid is largely about his absurd ADP. He is currently going fifth at first base and just outside the top 50 overall. Ahead of Pete Alonso. Ahead of Luke Voit. I don’t get it. The bugaboo for Guerrero Jr. is his ground ball rate. He had a 50.4% ground ball rate in 2019 and it actually got worse at 54.6% in 2020. Another thing is his barrel rate. It was just 8.6% in 2020. His hard hit rate and exit velocity don’t mean anything if he can’t square up the ball. So far, this has led to just a bunch of hard hit grounders. He’s not necessarily a bad option, but until that ground ball rate improves he’s definitely not worth his current ADP.</p>
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<img alt="Division Series - New York Yankees v Tampa Bay Rays - Game Two" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jgmppDyvj4MhtZj_L7lQb01l6js=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22283966/1278888286.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="88XBcq">Luke Voit, <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a> (Mark Abell)</h3>
<p id="smAcCH"><em>NFBC ADP: 68.14</em></p>
<p id="aZRAgn">I hate to say this because he could VERY EASILY slip into the top three at first base this year. A lot of people are optimistic about his capabilities, the ball park, and the surrounding talent. But plantar fasciitis is no joke, and for those that remember, it plagued Albert Pujols for quite some time. It can rear it’s head and continue to be an issue after you think it’s better. It eventually snapped, and Pujols had to have it surgically repaired. There is a chance Voit is good for the season, but his stock is rising and I’m avoiding him just in case this comes back around.</p>
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<cite>Photo by Adam Glanzman/MLB Photos via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>No longer a Pirate, will the change of scenery help Bell recapture any of his previous form?</figcaption>
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<h3 id="QrBZIG">Josh Bell, <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a> (Andrés Chávez)</h3>
<p id="HXXeJ8"><em>NFBC ADP: 170.47</em></p>
<p id="kzEtfi">It’s looking more and more like Bell’s first half in 2019 (154 wRC+, 27 HR) was the outlier. I’m not saying that he can’t be a usable first baseman in fantasy, but I prefer other targets and he is outside of my top 20. He did improve during last season’s second half (achieving a 101 wRC+ compared to a 47 wRC+ in the first half) but I don’t want my starting option running a 55.7% ground ball rate.</p>
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<cite>Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="XSSbdU">Miguel Sano, <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a> (Heath Capps)</h3>
<p id="EgukUB"><em>NFBC ADP: 195.88</em></p>
<p id="dYMEpn">With Sano it’s his profile that gives me pause, especially relative to where he’s being drafted among other first basemen. If it’s power I want, I’d rather pay up for Rhys Hoskins around pick 175 or so. I’d also rather have the floor of a guy like Christian Walker, whose 193 ADP per recent NFBC data is nearly identical to Sano’s. It’s just the way I play. I actually don’t hate Hoskins’ plate discipline and walk rate, and I think he is a solid power guy in his own right. And I like the hard hit ability of Walker, who should see a ton of volume for a mediocre Arizona offense—and he won’t sacrifice my batting average. You can keep Sano’s ridiculously poor 59.6% contact rate and 19.1% swinging strike rate. Especially inside the top 200 picks. Sano could really benefit from making the same adjustments Rowdy Tellez seemed to make in 2020—focusing more on contact. His power is already prodigious. Now just make more contact! But until I see it, I see no reason to invest in this profile.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/2/5/22268072/2021-fantasy-baseball-first-base-1b-avoid-busts-miguel-sanoHeath CappsGarrett AtkinsMark Abellaecu132021-02-05T09:00:00-05:002021-02-05T09:00:00-05:00Staff Post: First Basemen to target
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<img alt="National League Wild Card Game 1: St. Louis Cardinals v. San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dmAYzN6-QJqhX1eapl3QUL1jAUg=/0x0:2736x1824/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68774162/1228814388.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers tell you who to draft at first base in 2021.</p> <p id="y1yad0">First base is perhaps a top-heavy spot, but there are a plethora of solid options to target at every level—whether you are paying up, drafting one in the middle, or taking a shot on one late.</p>
<p id="n6z719">Each writer was tasked with offering his favorite target at the position for 2021, and this is what we came up with:</p>
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<img alt="American League Wild Card Game 1: Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1j_17B3V-oaGO9A7k259ys3uCw0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22272006/1229036551.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="HavmXu">Vladimir Guerrero Jr., <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> (Heath Capps)</h3>
<p id="TCkOA5"><em>NFBC ADP: 55.28</em></p>
<p id="sTZ1rf">I’d be lying if I said my draft strategy at first base in 2021 didn’t start with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Prospect fatigue is real when a guy isn’t even 22 years old and people fail to acknowledge the mix of floor AND upside. Guerrero’s 15.6% strikeout rate last year placed him inside the 84th percentile among all hitters, while his hard hit rate and exit velocity marks were each in the 93rd percentile. He’s not quite on the Freddie Freeman level, but when you’re talking about an elite strikeout rate and high quality of contact, that’s the comparison for <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> purposes. And if Vladito actually does lift the ball a bit more in 2021...watch out. Add in reports of him shedding 30 pounds (down from 280 to 250ish) and I’m sold. A man with his pedigree and skill set, now adding more physicality and bat speed into the mix? I’m not missing this boat.</p>
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<cite>Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="aTCui5">Paul Goldschmidt, <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> (Garrett Atkins)</h3>
<p id="AxM3WR"><em>NFBC ADP: 100.61</em></p>
<p id="mt2ZY3">June 2019. That’s the reason people are so down on Goldschmidt. One bad month, two seasons ago. During that stretch, Goldschmidt hit a measly .181 with a .309 SLG. Bu since July 1, 2019 Goldschmidt has been his normal self. Including 2020, Goldschmidt has slashed .286/.381/.518 since his slump. His wOBA of .379 over that same time frame is second among first basemen, behind only Freddie Freeman. So why is he being drafted 11th at the position in ADP? I have Goldschmidt as my sixth-ranked first baseman and would be totally fine with him as my starter.</p>
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<cite>Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="QrBZIG">Max Muncy, <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> (Andrés Chávez)</h3>
<p id="EK2Hv1"><em>NFBC ADP: 104.44</em></p>
<p id="M3t5RT">If you owned Muncy this past season, you surely have a bittersweet flavor in your mouth. He slashed .192/.331/.389, well below his career .236/.359/.484 line. However, there are several things that lead me to believe he will bounce back. For starters, he kept hitting for power, with 12 home runs. Second, his 2020 plate discipline stats (15.7% walk rate, 24.2% strikeout rate) were right in line with his career averages (15.2% BB%, 25.3% K%.) And third, his BABIP was just .203, far below the .266 mark he has had in his five-year MLB tenure. Some positive regression is to be expected. Muncy’s .041 disparity between his expected wOBA (.352) and his actual wOBA (.311) was the ninth-largest in MLB. Draft him with confidence.</p>
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<cite>Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="Y2fvXZ">Christian Walker, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a> (Mark Abell)</h3>
<p id="EjJRpG"><em>NFBC ADP: 202.61</em></p>
<p id="ot6Xo2">If you can remember, Walker came into the league like a champ for the first month and then quickly deteriorated. He struck out an insane 40% of the time and all looked lost, but then a cool thing happened where he moved AWAY from power and into an on-base mentality—switching out fly balls for line drives. I LOVE this move and I’m behind what Walker is doing 100 percent.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/2/5/22267350/2021-fantasy-baseball-first-basemen-1b-targets-sleepersHeath CappsGarrett Atkinsaecu13Mark Abell2021-02-04T15:00:00-05:002021-02-04T15:00:00-05:00Top first base sleepers for 2021
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>There’s a lot of power to like at first base this year, and plenty of value to be had late in your fantasy baseball drafts.</p> <p id="StLNGT">There’s a lot of power to like at the first base position this year in <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a>, and there’s plenty of value to be had late in your drafts. Here are my top sleepers for the first base position in 2021.</p>
<h3 id="Y9Gfyc">Christian Walker, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a>
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<h4 id="BVDBvB">NFBC ADP: 189.40 (1B22)</h4>
<h4 id="zLlpVJ">2021 Projection: .271 AVG, 32 HR, 7 SB, 86 R, 87 RBI</h4>
<p id="NXZyYo">Walker has quietly been one of the better fantasy options at first base over the past two seasons as he has slashed .262/.344/.471 with 36 home runs and nine stolen bases. He has tons of raw power, and his peripherals are actually very similar to Luke Voit’s, who is currently going off the board as the seventh first baseman and 127 picks earlier. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">STAT) C. Walker/L. Voit (Career #'s)<br>PA) 945/1029<br>CNT) 72.7%/69.7%<br>O-Swing) 31.2%/28.9%<br>EV) 90.7/90.3<br>Hard%) 47.7%/43.9%<br>FB%) 37.5%/36.1%<br>SB) 10/0<br><br>I see a lot of similarities between the two with Voit having the better home park and Walker having more SB potential.</p>— Joe Gentile (@JoeGentileFT) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeGentileFT/status/1348453750634139652?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 11, 2021</a>
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<p id="UnGKcg">With a tremendous amount of raw power, Walker has the ability to be a 35-homer threat this season. His ability to drive the ball with power should help his BABIP, which should help his batting average stay above .260. </p>
<p id="2hz6fK">While Walker’s bat alone should make him a profitable pick at his current ADP, his ability to steal a couple of bags really helps push him up into the next tier at the position. In a 15-team NFBC league, each hitter in the starting lineup is only projected for an average of 8.09 stolen bases per player, so Walker is currently projected just below the league average based on my projections. That becomes even more valuable when you factor in the average starting first baseman is only projected for 2.54 stolen bases. Getting Walker late in your draft will help you focus on building a more balanced team, and not have to pay up for steals as long as you follow this method throughout the draft. </p>
<h3 id="wZTAvy">Yuli Gurriel, <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a>
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<h4 id="mKGSlS">NFBC ADP: 276.0</h4>
<h4 id="JmtR3R">2021 Projection: .286 AVG, 29 HR, 3 SB, 80 R, 92 RBI</h4>
<p id="WS6nvN">Gurriel is coming off an awful 2020 season in which he slashed .232/.274/.384 with six home runs and zero stolen bases, but there is still a lot of room for optimism in 2021. Last season, Gurriel’s wRC+ dropped an astronomical 53 total points from the season prior, but his exit velocities, barrel rate, contact rate, and chase rate were still all around his career averages. This could mean that his 2020 may have just been a fluke. With him being on the wrong side of 30, and a decrease in efficiency against breaking balls, there are still some warning signs that his lack of production wasn’t all just bad luck. With his current ADP, however, I may be willing to buy into a bounce-back from the 36-year-old first baseman in 2021. </p>
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<cite>Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="U8QGlC">Nate Lowe, <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Texas Rangers</a>
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<h4 id="QinmbS">NFBC ADP: 345.7</h4>
<h4 id="0e3evF">2021 Projection: .274 AVG, 30 HR, 1 SB, 84 R, 82 RBI</h4>
<p id="6SVfgm">With the Rangers’ acquisition of Lowe this offseason, it finally looks like the 25-year-old first baseman will finally have a clear path to playing time this season. This has made Lowe one of the top sleeper picks among the fantasy community, and there’s a lot to be excited about here. With a tremendous amount of raw power and an ability to barrel the ball, there is the potential for a high BABIP and 30 home runs. The question surrounding Lowe is his contact ability. </p>
<p id="XQa49G">Over his 245 plate appearances as a major leaguer, Lowe sports a 31.8% strikeout rate, which is actually worse than Aaron Judge’s career mark. Luckily, there is some hope for the Rangers’ first baseman as his 75.8% contact rate and minor league contact numbers would suggest a strikeout rate in the mid-twenties. If he can bring that strikeout rate down in 2021, Lowe could finish in the top 15 at the position.</p>
<h3 id="IHrKWT">Evan White, <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a>
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<h4 id="qS803p">NFBC ADP: 386.1</h4>
<h4 id="bBg6ZO">2021 Projection: .255 AVG, 29 HR, 4 SB, 78 R, 77 RBI</h4>
<p id="VXOCmM">After signing a multi-year deal last offseason, White struggled over his first 202 plate appearances as he slashed .176/.252/.346 with a 41.6% strikeout rate. Although his rookie campaign was a disappointment, there is still a lot of room for optimism. With an ability to put the ball in the air and 52.5% hard hit rate, there is legitimate 30+ home run ability here. </p>
<p id="wrW5XD">The one question surrounding White is his contact ability. Coming up through the minor leagues, his highest seasonal strikeout rate was 23.0% in 2019 when he was at Double-A. There were some warning signs, however, as that strikeout rate also came with a 12.4% swinging strike rate. He did struggle against all pitch types last season, but if he can make some adjustments this offseason, he could post a mid-twenties strikeout rate. If that’s the case, White should be an absolute steal at his current ADP.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/2/4/22234008/2021-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-first-base-rankings-yuli-gurrielJoe Gentile2021-02-04T09:00:00-05:002021-02-04T09:00:00-05:00Luke Voit has top-5 potential among first basemen
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>The Yankees’ slugger led the league in home runs in 2020, and he has the tools to repeat a similarly good performance.</p> <p id="bqne3C">As incredible as it may sound, <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a>’ first baseman Luke Voit hit more home runs in 2020 (22) than he did in 2019, when he had 21. He did this in 62 (!) fewer games.</p>
<p id="PjrqEJ">With a .277/.338/.610 slash line, a .393 wOBA, a 152 wRC+, 22 homers, 41 runs and 52 RBI, Voit wasn’t just a mixed-league asset in 2020, but also a real-life MVP candidate. He was extremely productive, and he did all this while battling plantar fasciitis in his right foot for much of the second half.</p>
<p id="UTFR5M">How did Voit go from hitting 21 home runs in 118 games in 2019 to mashing 22 in just 56 games last season? Easy. He was far more aggressive than ever.</p>
<h3 id="phV6dO">Voit became a more aggressive hitter in 2020</h3>
<p id="QbNLqN">Voit swung much more often in 2020 (52.1%) than in 2019 (47.4%). He also increased his zone-swing rate from 78.6% to 81.2% and swung at the first pitch in over half of his plate appearances (51.7%, per Baseball Savant).</p>
<p id="0qrj2u">Basically, Voit decided to attack pitchers right from the beginning, and the strategy paid off handsomely.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Luke Voit is the first player to 20 home runs in 2020 <a href="https://t.co/QpCXqNiarl">pic.twitter.com/QpCXqNiarl</a></p>— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballQuotes1/status/1306754519645204485?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 18, 2020</a>
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<p id="URj4qY">You may think that pitchers are eventually going to adjust to Voit’s aggressiveness on the first pitch and throw him more breakers and pitches outside of the zone. And you may be right. But Voit has the tools to adjust back. He has good pitch recognition, and in 2020, improved his contact rate to 74.5% (from 66.7% in 2019) and lowered his swinging strike rate from 15.7% in 2019 to 13.3% last year. He knows how to work a count, he knows how to do damage to a pitch, and he will be just fine.</p>
<p id="f1Z9In">If I’m picking a first baseman to lead the pack in homers this season, I’m going with Luke Voit. Granted, his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity were both in the 52nd percentile in 2020, only slightly above-average. But the power was legit: the expected slugging was in the 96th percentile.</p>
<h3 id="ZRlKht">Luke Voit’s 2021 fantasy outlook</h3>
<p id="z31sZq">Other expected stats back up Voit’s 2020 success. His .374 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and even his xBA of .284 was enough to place him in the 82nd percentile. </p>
<p id="nKK7Dy">All of these stats came in a 60-game sample, which isn’t the biggest of the world, but they mean something. They show an evident change in approach by Voit, a formerly patient, borderline-passive hitter.</p>
<p id="9ircWy">By now, you know that Voit won’t contribute to your stolen base tally. Few first basemen do. But despite being one of the premier sluggers in the game, he has a tolerable batting average floor and will do wonders with your runs and RBI totals by virtue of hitting in the middle of a powerful Yankees lineup every day.</p>
<p id="h5mgFU">Right now, I have Voit as my seventh-ranked first baseman. I’m tempted to put him above guys like Pete Alonso, and I truly believe he has the potential to finish the season as a top-five asset at the position when all is said and done.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/2/4/22264446/2021-fantasy-baseball-luke-voit-new-york-yankees-first-base-rankingsaecu132021-02-03T12:00:00-05:002021-02-03T12:00:00-05:005 bold first base predictions for 2021
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>Give me Pistol Pete everywhere and anywhere.</p> <p id="cux6Bd">I’m dubbing first base the power position, because when you look at the single seasons with the most home runs and highest ISO (among qualified batters) you mostly see outfielders and first basemen. Let’s see if the position can live up to it’s new nickname this year.</p>
<p id="u8aVU1">Here are five BOLD predictions for first base in 2021 fantasy baseball.</p>
<h3 id="nq0YZv">1. Pete Alonso hits 40 home runs and over 110 RBI</h3>
<p id="Oi7tDV">Sophomore slump, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb-home-run-derby">home run derby</a> hangover, whatever you want to call it, I’m convinced Pete was hit hard by it last year as he saw his 54 HR, 120 RBI rookie year come crashing down. Alonso’s batting average dropped from .260 to .231, his homer total dropped to 16, his barrel rate dropped from 14.6% to 12.8%, and his hard hit rate went from 42% to 31.8%. To some degree pitchers figured out his struggles with breaking pitches (where he has never been above a .210 BA) and to some degree he struggled considerably vs. fastballs year over year. I think Alonso comes in with additional weapons in 2021 and produces a 2019-esque figure.</p>
<h3 id="swit9e">2. Dominic Smith will be outside the top 30 this year</h3>
<p id="b5YYfJ">I am all in on one <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> player and out on the other. There is obviously a scenario where Smith takes the full-time gig, DH is removed and Alonso was a one-year wonder. But I’m inclined to think the opposite. Smith can play left field while Alonso can pretty much only play first base, but I think Alonso’s bat is too enticing to pass up. Smith also has a more storied injury history than Alonso, and I’m inclined to see him spend more time on the IL. One final note – Dominic Smith’s BABIP in 2020 was .368, BY FAR the highest of his career. </p>
<h3 id="rAvcIl">3. Max Muncy hits over 35 homers and bats above .265 for the first time in his career</h3>
<p id="gYjWuk">I was big on Max Muncy last year and got burnt, so I’m doing the logical thing and doubling down. For starters, Max’s BABIP was .203, which is a decrease of 1/3 from the previous two years. Second, he is very patient at the plate (top 10% in walk rate three years running) and his biggest issue was he missed the sweet spot last year (down almost 30% from previous seasons). Like a bunch of other guys, fastballs became a slow point as he wasn’t getting the historic success off those that he is used to. I’m also wondering if the fractured finger from summer camp lingered throughout most of the year.</p>
<h3 id="xQmzDI">4. Ryan Mountcastle is top 10 among first basemen in home runs AND stolen bases</h3>
<p id="yjaJtH">While he hit five home runs across 35 games last year, he didn’t steal any bases. At Triple-A he stole a few bases, and I think he can nab four steals, which should be enough to land him among the top 10. He has age on his side, being 24 years old when this season begins—and Baltimore has no reason to hold him back. I think Austin Hays and Mountcastle will have some ups and downs, but will have opportunities aplenty to do both.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Curve sprints today with <a href="https://twitter.com/Orioles?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Orioles</a> Ryan Mountcastle & <a href="https://twitter.com/Rangers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Rangers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/carlchester9?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@carlchester9</a> Building acceleration and top speed today! This was after bounding and some fly-in sprints. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/teamoptc?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#teamoptc</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/builtbyoptc?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#builtbyoptc</a> <a href="https://t.co/4nKYlnsjdn">pic.twitter.com/4nKYlnsjdn</a></p>— Optimal Performance Training Center (@OPTCFLA) <a href="https://twitter.com/OPTCFLA/status/1350536582709858309?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2021</a>
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<h3 id="Bb8rzL">5. Christian Walker has over 100 runs this year for the first time in his career</h3>
<p id="RiwyH3">Christian has (smartly) decided to zig while the rest of the league is zagging. Over the last three seasons, his batting average has gone from .163 to .259 to .271, while his ISO went from .224 to .217 to .188 last year. Doing this has put him on base more, he’s striking out less (down from 41.5% in 2018 to 20.6% last year) and hitting the ball harder, but lowering his launch angle such that he’s moved away from chasing home runs to getting on base. That’s step one. Step two will be getting Carson Kelly, Daulton Varsho, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar and David Peralta to drive him home once he gets there.</p>
<p id="SDJq7G">What’s your boldest first base prediction for fantasy baseball this year? Drop it in the comments!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/2/3/22263465/2021-fantasy-baseball-first-base-1b-bold-predictions-pete-alonsoMark Abell2021-02-02T10:00:00-05:002021-02-02T10:00:00-05:00First basemen to target in 2021 fantasy baseball
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>First base sleepers and breakouts.</p> <p id="SyEKTZ">We continue First Base Week here at Fake Teams with a look at some draft day targets. First base is a bit of a shallow position this year. There is tons of upside late, but it comes from guys who have little to no track record. Even the top tier at the position has question marks. How will Jose Abreu follow up his MVP season? Can Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson bounce back? Will Dominic Smith get enough playing time? And will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally break out? All of these players are still being drafted in the top 100 overall. A bit risky, huh? There are, however, players outside the top 100 worth the risk because of the low investment cost. Let's take a look at who those first basemen are.</p>
<p id="8grDLU">Here are some of my favorite targets at first base in 2021.</p>
<h3 id="UeAOjc">Josh Bell, <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a>
</h3>
<p id="hHRJdL">My Rank: 12<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 13<br>NFBC ADP: 172.49</p>
<p id="n5VKZK">2020 was a dreadful season for Josh Bell. He had, by far, the worst year of his professional career. But let's not act like the 28-year-old is projecting downwards. Let's not forget, in 2019, he hit 37 home runs with 116 RBI and a .936 OPS. If anything, 2020 can be wiped away. Not only was it an abnormal season, but Bell was playing for the Pirates who had nothing to play for. Bell has since been traded to the Nationals. He could see a career resurgence with his new team. He's projected to bat third for the Nationals, between Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber. That's a huge upgrade over the lineup in Pittsburgh. The Statcast numbers for Bell have remained top tier, even in 2020. Bell was in the top 5% in exit velocity in 2019, and he still put up a top 15% mark in exit velocity during his rough 2020. Expect a bounce-back season from Bell this coming season.</p>
<h3 id="MHWoBi">Carlos Santana, <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Kansas City Royals</a>
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<p id="1JyIoq">My Rank: 16<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 21<br>NFBC ADP: 287.83</p>
<p id="GB2w4N">Need another bounce-back candidate? Look no further than points league specialist, Carlos Santana. In 2019, Santana put up a .281/.397/.515 slash line with 34 home runs, 93 RBI, and 110 runs scored. This made him relevant regardless of league format. 2020 was admittedly bad. He posted a career low .199 AVG and .350 SLG. His xStats say he should have been a .253 hitter with a .450 SLG. His xwOBA of .360 was top 40 in the league. Santana should return to form in 2021. Expect his usual 30-homer season with a .250 batting average. And you know he'll draw more walks than strikeouts. That's great value going outside the top 250!</p>
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Angels" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HdhRlA0_8wvfUJs14fStVNLd18E=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22275182/1273233941.jpg">
<cite>Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="9XjR4s">Christian Walker, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a>
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<p id="Lvx7Mg">My Rank: 17<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 20<br>NFBC ADP: 192.88</p>
<p id="LpnHdc">Christian Walker is a name I wasn't expecting to be writing about this time a year ago. Sure, he had a solid 2019 but it seemed a bit out of nowhere. Walker was never a touted prospect. If anything he was more of a "defensive" specialist. Then 2020 happened. Walker improved on his breakout 2019. He had a higher batting average, maintained his elite hard hit percentage, and lowered his strikeout rate. Speaking of his hard hit percentage, he was in the 94th percentile with a 48.8% rate in 2019 and in the 89th percentile with a 48.5% rate during 2020. The one downward trend for Walker in 2020 was his barrel percentage. He had a barrel rate of 13.1% in 2019 (top 10% in baseball) but it fell to just 6.4% in 2020. If anything, this could be a sign of bad luck for Walker last season. I see untapped upside in Walker's bat and I'm buying in for 2021.</p>
<h3 id="ID1MR8">Jared Walsh, <a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Los Angeles Angels</a>
</h3>
<p id="V4GoQl">My Rank: 18<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 23<br>NFBC ADP: 193.55</p>
<p id="YELgFu">Jared Walsh had a pretty solid 2020. He hit nine homers, drove in 26 runs, and hit near .300 with a .293 batting average. Oh, did I mention it was over the course of just 32 games? Of which he only started 24? His power is legit. Walsh hit 65 home runs in the minors over the past two seasons prior to 2020. Then he put up a 40+ home run pace during the short season. It's obviously a small sample size but even then his xSLG of .527 would have been sixth at the position last year. He's worth at shot at his current ADP.</p>
<h3 id="maJiSy">Nate Lowe, <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Texas Rangers</a>
</h3>
<p id="KSFCts">My Rank: 23<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 33<br>NFBC ADP: 337.22</p>
<p id="44iJPr">Here's a fun stat. Nate Lowe hit a ball with an exit velocity of 114.8 MPH last season. That ties him with the 18th highest max EV in baseball—a tie shared with Ronald Acuña Jr. Lowe was traded from the Rays to the Rangers this offseason. That should mean more stable playing time for the former top 100 prospect. He's been a beast in the minors, posting a .568 SLG in 2018 and a .508 SLG in 2019. His ADP will rise over the course of the spring now that he's with a new team, but he's still worth taking a shot on as a corner infielder or bench bat with top 12 first baseman upside.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/2/2/22259860/first-basemen-targets-2021-fantasy-baseball-1b-sleepers-breakouts-prospectsGarrett Atkins2021-02-01T15:08:44-05:002021-02-01T15:08:44-05:00State of the Position: First base in 2021
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>Surveying the first base position with a fantasy baseball slant.</p> <p id="mDH71N">If you missed Catcher Week, I guess you got lucky. The important thing is, you’re here now.</p>
<aside id="1ZJskG"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Welcome to Catcher Week","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2021/1/25/22248447/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-catcher-position-for-2021-fantasy-baseball"}]}'></div></aside><p id="YY7rk9">Only kidding, Catcher Week was great! And even greater than an entire week devoted to catchers, is an entire week devoted to literally any other position. So let’s continue First Base Week with an overview of the position...</p>
<h3 id="RMeZ4g">The Elites: Freddie Freeman and Cody Bellinger</h3>
<p id="UsTVRq">I’m ranking (and drafting) Freddie Freeman over Cody Bellinger for the time being, given that Bellinger isn’t currently swinging a bat following offseason shoulder surgery. However, if we actually get a delayed start to the MLB season, that would help Bellinger’s chances. For my part, despite ranking Bellinger second at this position, I’m still drafting him in Round 2 every chance I get. The shoulder surgery and/or last year’s career-low .245 BABIP are conspiring to give us this discount. I’m taking it. Bellinger quietly made some plate discipline gains in 2020, making more contact than ever, more contact in the zone than ever, and more contact out of the zone than ever. His 47.6% swing rate was the highest of his career. He also swung more inside the zone than ever. All of this, and his 29.9% chase rate was still better than average. If he’s healthy, you’ll make out like a bandit.</p>
<p id="QNoT1Z">As for Freeman, his 14.1% strikeout rate ranked inside the top 10% of the league, which was no big surprise. Where Freeman may have surprised some was with his batted ball quality, though. His Statcast page has always been littered with “red,” but in 2020 he set career marks in barrel rate (14.7%), exit velocity (92.4 MPH), xBA (.341), xSLG (.660), wOBA (.449), xwOBA (.441), hard hit rate (54.2%), strikeout rate (14.1%), and walk rate (17.2%). He was downright filthy, despite having one of the tougher bouts with Covid-19 that we heard about last year. Add in that he’s just 31 years old and hits in the heart of an elite Braves offense...he’s an outstanding “floor” pick towards the end of Round 1.</p>
<h3 id="mg5jP5">A Tier of His Own: D.J. LeMahieu</h3>
<p id="M8H2L8">LeMahieu’s re-signing with the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a> means his Round 3 ADP is fixed. The batting average, the counting stats, the triple-eligibility (1B/2B/3B)...what’s not to love? Sure, you’ll give up a little power to the next guys on the list, but that’s all you’re giving up. His 9.7% strikeout rate from 2020 was the best of his career, and that mark ranked inside the top 1% of the league. Likewise, his .422 wOBA (top 1%) and .315 xBA (top 3%) were stellar. He’s another superb “floor” play.</p>
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<img alt="Wild Card Round - Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics - Game Three" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RlgEt5ewArGrVnhoViUHUFuyqAQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22273023/1278198514.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="2lkca3">The Beef: Jose Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Luke Voit</h3>
<p id="3ErRvb">This tier is easy enough for me to navigate. I’m drafting Guerrero Jr. aggressively in 2021, and I ranked him fifth among all first basemen. But I won’t take him over Abreu, who offers power and counting stats in a phenomenal <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a> lineup. Abreu, who is a career .294 hitter, has batted .293 over the last two seasons, following an injury-plagued 2018. His 52 home runs over that stretch trail only Pete Alonso. Luke Voit checks in at ninth on that same list with 43 dingers—but his .268 BA far exceeds Alonso’s .252 mark. Alonso has the potential “unicorn” skill with power, but if you miss out on him I think Voit is an excellent consolation prize given his ability to hit for power but also potentially not sacrifice batting average. And stay tuned later this week, as we’ll have a deep dive on Voit’s potential in 2021.</p>
<p id="t6wJNv">As for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., what he offers is an elite ability to hit the ball hard, ranking inside the top 7% of the league in hard hit rate and exit velocity. He also doesn’t strike out much, with rates of 17.7% and 15.6% over his first two MLB seasons. It’s easy to see why pundits continually drool over his upside—he truly is one launch angle adjustment away from being a phenomenal contributor for <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> purposes. If only he can elevate the ball a bit more, we’ll have a monster on our hands. Add in the positive reports on his physical shape this offseason, and I am drinking the Kool-Aid. I have done two NFBC drafts so far this year, and I have Vladito on both of my squads.</p>
<h3 id="abKM1y">The Sleepers: Josh Bell, Christian Walker, Carlos Santana</h3>
<p id="Be27Yy">Before I hop into the above three, I’d like to mention that I’m a big fan of Eric Hosmer as a first base target in 2021. His 135 ADP doesn’t qualify him as a “sleeper,” but the fact that he’s being drafted 30 picks after Anthony Rizzo is enticing to me. Besides last year’s elevated 8.7 degree launch angle (and hope for more on that front), he’s carrying hard hit rates of 46.0% and 47.0% over the last two years. Add in the stacked Padres lineup and Hosmer’s ability to consistently hit for average...that’s a recipe for success.</p>
<p id="4G7tV0">Bell’s move to Washington can only be construed as a positive, and right now he’s a bargain in drafts relative to some of his peers, at an ADP of around 150. Walker quietly rakes, as his 13.1% barrel rate in 2019 was inside the top 10% of the league, and he has posted hard hit rates north of 48% in each of the last two seasons. To boot, he swiped eight bags in 2019 and is slated for tons of playing time as one of the heart-of-the-order batters for a mediocre Arizona lineup. I dig him as a solid corner infield bat. As for Santana, I just think he’s too cheap as a proven power bat, one that the Royals will need to lengthen their lineup. I have no fears about his playing time, and I expect we see an improvement on last year’s .199 BA (his expected batting average was .253). With a walk rate inside the top 2% of the league, he’s another solid corner infield bat if you miss out early.</p>
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<img alt="Chicago White Sox v Kansas City Royals" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/w0VDTcb_4H4jLakD9OqRddR_bNI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22273959/1209788620.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="lHlwWt">The Prospect to Watch: Andrew Vaughn</h3>
<p id="OnAM6U">Vaughn is the top-ranked prospect for Chicago, and offers plus hitting and plus power potential for a White Sox team that got mostly nothing from Edwin Encarnacion out of the DH spot a year ago. The tea leaves say we’ll see Vaughn sooner rather than later in this role, and he’ll have a chance to produce as the everyday DH and perhaps even spell Jose Abreu at first base when needed. With an ADP after pick 300, you certainly aren’t having to shell out much to find out if he’ll win the lion’s share of DH at-bats in Chicago.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2021/2/1/22259394/first-base-2021-fantasy-baseball-state-position-freddie-freeman-vladimir-guerrero-jrHeath Capps2021-02-01T10:00:00-05:002021-02-01T10:00:00-05:00Top 30 first basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball
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<img alt="2020 World Series Game 5: Los Angeles Dodgers v. Tampa Bay Rays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aRtkPZPXr2TBMEjMz0zNMKqjkS4=/0x0:5241x3494/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68750945/1229284760.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers rank the first base position for 2021.</p> <p id="UTnU6D">Positional weeks are upon us here at Fake Teams, and here’s the schedule if you’ve missed it:</p>
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<p id="3Yszam">Last week was a catcher-centric affair, but this week we are moving onto greener pastures. So without much ado—and maybe the slightest bit of fanfare—what follows is our most recent pass at the top 30 first basemen for <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> in 2021.</p>
<aside id="xE8MGS"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Top 30 Catchers for 2021","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2021/1/25/22246125/2021-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-30-catchers"}]}'></div></aside><p id="MjLx0m">Be sure to roast the worst rankings in the comments!</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2021/2/1/22259062/2021-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-30-first-basemen-cody-bellingerHeath Capps