Fake Teams - Welcome to Shortstop WeekThe Key Source For Incisive Fantasy Sports Analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50153/fake-fav.png2020-02-16T09:59:56-05:00http://www.faketeams.com/rss/stream/208952942020-02-16T09:59:56-05:002020-02-16T09:59:56-05:00Should you draft Carlos Correa in fantasy baseball?
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>Heath has baseball reasons about why you should avoid the Houston shortstop in 2020.</p> <p id="cGI3Eh">This <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a> scandal is tiresome and I’m sick of hearing about it already. I also happen to think <span>Correa</span> hasn’t done himself any favors within the media over the weekend. So my lean is to avoid him in drafts. And right now that’s made easier by the scandal. I also believe (like most do) that shortstop is a talented position in 2020, one where finding an alternative to <span>Correa</span> is pretty easy. I’m also a sucker for <span>Tim Anderson</span> and his 20/20 ability right in the same juncture of fake drafts. I have many reasons not to draft Correa, but I want to be thorough. So here we are.</p>
<p id="ToymDK">So despite the melodrama raging in the baseball world, I’m actually just trying to make sense of <span>Carlos Correa</span> as a <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> player. And while I think I can plead a good case against him, I’d like to also note that it’s a great time to draft Correa if you’re a fan of his. His ADP of around pick 100 isn’t prohibitive.</p>
<h2 id="k52lbd">Projections</h2>
<p id="ui4SNc">So what exactly is the ceiling for Correa? Here are what two prominent projection systems have for him in 2020...</p>
<p id="iVWDNe">ATC: 138 G, 584 PA, 29 HR, 80 R, 95 RBI, 3 SB, .271 BA</p>
<p id="P4lKoI">Steamer: 149 G, 637 PA, 33 HR, 93 R, 105 RBI, 3 SB, .273 BA</p>
<p id="1TjNBX">The first thing I notice is the volume. Correa’s games played by year since he entered the league in 2015 are: 99, 153, 109, 110, and 75. So these projections represent Correa’s ceiling as far as playing time is concerned. Banking on a full slate of at-bats seems ridiculous to me, honestly. But Correa apologists would argue the injury risk is baked into the ADP, so let’s continue.</p>
<h2 id="qKgeqM">Batting Average</h2>
<p id="b2QysP">Next up, the batting average. It’s solid but not outstanding. Correa is a career .277 hitter. He does have the one outlier season in 2017, where he hit for a .315 average and had a monstrous (for him) .352 BABIP, the best mark of his career. But I am taking that year with at least a tiny grain of salt right now. It’s the year we know the Astros cheated, and there’s enough smoke around this group right now that I don’t know how you take the last three years at face value—but especially not 2017.</p>
<p id="5oVt7g">For reference, here are Correa’s batting average marks by year: .279, .274, .315, .239, and .279. Which one sticks out the most? Also, if you consulted Statcast data, you’d see that 2017 was a hell of a year for Correa. A heck of an outlier, too. Correa was Top 8% or better in average exit velocity, XBA, XSLG, WOBA, XWOBA, XWOBACON, and Hard Hit % in 2017. <strong>Correa has never been inside the Top 8% in any of these categories at any other point of his MLB career</strong>. </p>
<p id="wBbFCX">Does that mean he’s not good for fantasy? Definitely not. For instance, his .270 or so batting average would make him a plus in said category. Maybe not a “plus-plus,” but still well over last year’s cumulative .264 mark by MLB shortstops. Given Correa’s career BABIPs and BA marks, I don’t think assuming anything over .275 is wise. And the projections—which are far beyond my limited scope—say .271 and .273. </p>
<p id="cBHgpH">13 starting shortstops are projected to bat for a higher average than Correa in 2020, for instance. But not all of them have shown his power capability. So we’ll just call him a plus in this category, and carry on.</p>
<h2 id="HznJDu">Stolen Bases</h2>
<p id="49QXPt">This should go without saying, but three steals is nothing. This projection jives with the last three years, as Correa has swiped two, three, and one bases in his last three seasons respectively. If anything, projecting three is aggressive—that mark assumes he is staying healthy for 100+ games in 2020.</p>
<p id="Y0qGCa">His sprint speed marks jive with the downturn, as his foot speed has gradually eroded each year. Here are the scores, in feet per second: 28.3, 28.0, 27.7, 27.7, and 27.6. Put differently, Correa began his career in the 84th percentile for speed, and by last year he was down in the 68th percentile.</p>
<p id="jMjZZ2">I don’t see him all of a sudden giving you double-digit steals, even if he does turn in a fully healthy season. I think you’d be giddy if you got even five swipes. Even at that number, he’s not an asset to you in steals.</p>
<h2 id="4u8QhU">Runs and RBIs</h2>
<p id="OAlWJN">Correa is projected to bat seventh for the Astros, which seems a little low. The current order per Roster Resource is Springer-Altuve-Brantley-<span>Bregman</span>-Gurriel-Alvarez-Correa-Reddick-Maldonado. I could see Correa batting as high as fifth, over Gurriel. But Alvarez is certainly going to be some competition, as he has the added benefit of batting from the left side and chopping up what is a heavily right-handed lineup. Anyway, RBI opportunities should be plentiful no matter what. But I wonder if Correa will return a bit less value with regard to run-scoring given the lower batting order slot.</p>
<p id="PUVEDD">The ATC has Correa ranking 21st in plate appearances, 16th in runs scored, and fifth in RBIs. So again, no reason to worry over his RBI output, but if he’s down in the order he’s arguably not a plus-plus in runs scored. Maybe he’s just a plus, or maybe he misses more time and he’s a liability. We’ll come back to the runs at the conclusion.</p>
<h2 id="4ZLprL">Home Runs</h2>
<p id="6QjC5u">Correa’s home run totals by season for the course of his MLB career are: 22, 20, 24, 15, and 21.</p>
<p id="kd76Dh">But sure, he’ll hit 30+ in 2020. Okay, fancy projection systems.</p>
<p id="Mgl1AJ">I know that’s simplistic. I’m just sayin’. He’s never done it, never even come close. Last year’s 21 dingers did come in only 75 games, so on a per-game basis he was on track for 30+ if he had only remained healthy. However, the bouncy ball caveat applies, as it does to everyone...right?</p>
<p id="9hJmHe">The good news—if you’re searching for it—is that his 13.5% barrel rate was the best of his career. The batted ball profile from 2019 was encouraging, too. He beefed up his pull rate and hit more fly balls and slightly more line drives (which meant he posted the lowest GB% of his career, at 39.1%). Correa’s 25.6% HR/FB rate was also the highest mark of his career. I’d say that was damning and that he perhaps got lucky, but given his increased barrel rate and the presence of the bouncy ball, it’s not really a surprise to me.</p>
<p id="i1yrCN">Some cold water—if you’re looking for it—was that he was literally either hot or cold. Per Fangraphs, his 44.9% hard hit rate was the best of his career. But the 20.8% soft hit rate was also the worst of his career, resulting in a career-low 34.3% medium hit rate. To be honest, I’ve not done much research in this area, so I don’t know how concerned we should be, if at all. But that 34.3% medium rate would have been 2nd worst in the MLB last year had Correa qualified. The “worst” would have been <span>Matt Olson</span>’s 34.1% mark. But the large difference was <span>Olson</span>’s mere 15.6% soft contact rate and superb 50.3% hard hit rate.</p>
<p id="Xmevsw">Sorting the leaderboard by soft hit rate is even more concerning. Correa’s 20.8% rate would have ranked sixth worst in the MLB had he qualified, behind guys like <span>Mallex Smith</span>, <span>Victor Robles</span>, <span>Jurickson Profar</span>, <span>Jonathan Villar</span>, and Cesar Hernandez. What do all of those guys do that Correa doesn’t? <em>Run</em>. Anyway, this may not be a huge deal. I just thought it was interesting. So let’s drill down a bit more using Statcast data, separating ground balls from balls hit into the air.</p>
<p id="Z5pIMt">Correa had 208 batted ball events in 2019, and 84 of those balls were hit hard (95 mph or greater) according to Statcast data. That’s a 42.2% hard hit rate, which ranked 81st in the MLB last year among hitters with 200 or more BBE. Given the rate of soft contact, I’d have wanted Correa to be higher on that list of hard hit balls. However...</p>
<p id="7xeiRf">His 95.7 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranked 38th in the MLB, while his 83.2 mph average on ground balls ranked 223. So I don’t think we should be worried about Correa’s ability to hit home runs. So what if he hits some weak grounders, as long as he’s punishing the ball when it’s in the air. He also decreased that ground ball rate last year, as stated previously. So he’s hitting more line drives and fly balls, and hitting them hard when he does so. And he’s pulling more, and we know that’s a good thing in his home park.</p>
<p id="n0Delc">Laslty, in that same sort (batters with 200+ BBE in 2019), Correa’s 8.7% Brls/PA ranked 24th in the MLB. And f you looked at barrels per BBE, he moves up a tiny bit to 22nd. Again, I’m not worried about Correa’s ability to hit a home run in 2020.</p>
<h2 id="ux7f7W">Conclusion</h2>
<p id="EdYHlY">Correa is definitely a home run threat, and likely one of the better ones at the shortstop position. He should also be a plus-plus in the RBI category. He won’t hurt you in batting average, so we can call him a plus there. As for stolen bases, he’s a liability.</p>
<p id="hd4LiK">It’s the runs scored that I have questions about. In Correa’s healthiest season (2016), he played 153 games and scored only 76 runs. Granted, the Astros offense as a unit ranked only 15th in the MLB in runs scored that year—not the elite production we’ve seen in recent years. <span>Alex Bregman</span> only played in 49 games for Houston that year, for instance. Correa batted mostly cleanup that year, and saw the rest of his time in the three-hole. So he’s on a better team in 2020, but he’ll be batting anywhere from 5-7 in the order? I haven’t done the math here, but it sounds a bit like a push to me. Projection systems are all over the place, with the ATC (80) being far different than Steamer (93) and THE BAT (94). I’m really digging the ATC projection for Correa, honestly. Projecting fewer games played (138) than Steamer (149) and THE BAT (149) seems wise. And still socking 29 homers with 95 RBIs while batting .271...it all adds up fine to me.</p>
<p id="0koAzh">Anyway, it’s just not enough for me. The power is legit, I’m not questioning that. Correa is bona fide in two categories (HR, RBI), solid in one (BA), a liability in one (SB), and probably neutral in another (runs). At the same juncture of my draft, I can grab some of that elusive speed in a guy like <span>Tim Anderson</span>. Or, I’ll already have my starting shortstop lined up, which is part of my overall draft strategy this year—to lock up my middle infield early. I don’t see enough from Correa to have him change my draft strategy. Not without the wheels, not without the speed, not with the injury history, and certainly not with the crazy swirl of drama happening in Houston this year. And the drama will last all year, of that I have no doubt.</p>
<p id="AoBNqv">What say you guys? Are you swayed on Correa in either direction?</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/16/21134017/should-you-draft-carlos-correa-in-2020Heath Capps2020-02-14T15:31:00-05:002020-02-14T15:31:00-05:00Staff Post: Shortstops to Avoid in 2020
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers tell you which shortstops to avoid in 2020.</p> <p id="MngQ1o"><a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">Fantasy baseball</a> season is in full swing, and the pun was obviously intended. Earlier today we dropped our staff targets at the loaded shortstop position. And now it’s time for our avoids. Because you want to be a responsible fake baseball owner and avoid the potholes, don’t you?</p>
<aside id="QjkERO"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Staff Post: Shortstops to Target in 2020","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/14/21137278/fantasy-baseball-shortstops-to-target-in-2020"}]}'></div></aside><p id="aI8aFr"></p>
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<img alt="Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y5gNWLBHfBD2WFicJo_cXwZJI9A=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19720600/1167663726.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="XI8Qdj">
<span>Fernando Tatis Jr.</span>, <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">San Diego Padres</a> (Mark Abell)</h2>
<p id="8LLJYd">I already highlighted him in my bold predictions, but the issue with such a strong position is that there aren’t many players I’m against. Fernando in a nutshell is injury prone, had a .410 BABIP (regression city here we come) and strikes out almost 30% of the time. Also, opposing teams now have a year of tape on him and will know how to best challenge him in what could be a sophomore slump.</p>
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<img alt="Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HFfP_924apx8rBKTHenuwIw0vj0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19720624/1173703274.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="IGfnMG">
<span>Adalberto Mondesi</span>, <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Kansas City Royals</a> (Jonathan Butler and Zack Waxman)</h2>
<p id="ihDeUh"><span>Mondesi</span> comes at a very high price this year at pick 39 and I am not a fan of it. The speed that <span>Mondesi</span> provides is wonderful, however, I prefer players that are better all around when picking in the top 50. With speed being his only asset, I consider Mondesi too much of a risk because if he injures his legs during the season, you will see that stolen base production drop. The fact that Mondesi could end up being a .250 hitter with less than double-digit power has me worried and not willing to get in at the top 40 price. - Jonathan-</p>
<p id="2J2qNd"><span>Adalberto Mondesi</span> is a player I will have zero shares of this year in redraft leagues. The speed tax is too pricey for a player that is coming off of a significant injury and has a batting average that could be very bad. In OBP formats, he’s kryptonite. I never want to put all my eggs into one basket with stolen bases. The players that are going around his ADP are far superior in four other categories. For instance, over my dead body are you going to convince me to select Mondesi over Ozzie Albies. When someone else passes on Albies for Mondesi in Round 3, I say thank you for the donation. If you want to make it comparable to shortstop, I’ll take Bichette in rounds 4 or 5. Both Albies and Bichette will help you enough in stolen bases that what they make up for in the other four categories should be more than enough. -Zack-</p>
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<img alt="2019 World Series Game 7 - Washington Nationals v. Houston Astros" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qeB7mqqILbkD_BWkHopTUtIV-SY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19720874/1179081678.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="4MTM6e">
<span>Carlos Correa</span>, <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a> (Heath Capps)</h2>
<p id="ctMZp8">I have mutliple concerns here. Namely, <span>Correa</span>’s injury-riddled past. That same past that dictates that he more than likely will not be a threat on the basepaths in 2020. He himself hasn’t run much in recent years, and the Astros are not a team that has run much as a unit, ranking middle of the pack the last couple of years. Of course, there’s the whole cheating scandal thing to process. Was it just 2017? Was it also 2018 and 2019? 2017, for what it’s worth, was the only year we’d say <span>Correa</span> was “plus-plus” in the batting average department. Remove that year—which we actually have legitimate evidence for doing—and you’re basically expecting a .270 or so hitter. Who probably won’t run. More power than <span>Tim Anderson</span>? Sure! But as for overall skill set, I’d rather have <span>Anderson</span> at his ADP. I like the way he plays, I like his speed, and I like that he just plain has less baggage at that juncture of the draft. 20/20 threats don’t grow on trees, and <span>Anderson</span> is one of the cheapest ones to predict in 2020. So for multiple reasons, count me out on Correa. </p>
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<img alt="Miami Marlins v New York Mets" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/44tpIXhO7cz9gcNvs3LLic_8FZ0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19720868/1176920976.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="qMkjlK">
<span>Amed Rosario</span>, <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">New York Mets</a> (Garrett Atkins)</h2>
<p id="n2B9aU">It’s not that I hate <span>Amed Rosario</span>, I just hate his price tag. I honestly don’t understand it either. His career numbers per 162 games are just 13 home runs, 61 RBIs, 76 runs, and, wait for it...just 23 steals. I say just 23 because I feel like many people expect him to be a 30+ steal guy. He’s not that, y’all. He’s average batting average and decent speed. That’s not a pick inside the top 150. He also has poor plate discipline, with a walk rate under 5% for his career. I’d much rather have guys like <span>Corey Seager</span>, <span>Jorge Polanco</span>, and even <span>Dansby Swanson</span> over <span>Rosario</span>.</p>
<p id="uPYu9I">And that’s it for shortstops this week! Of course, there may or may not be an in-depth dive on Carlos Correa this weekend...also, Third Base Week begins on Monday!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/14/21137804/fantasy-baseball-shortstops-to-avoid-in-2020Heath CappsZackwaxDadSoxMark AbellGarrett Atkins2020-02-14T07:29:00-05:002020-02-14T07:29:00-05:00Staff Post: Shortstops to Target in 2020
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers tell you which shortstops to select in your fantasy baseball drafts.</p> <p id="dpYdHz"><a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">Fantasy baseball</a> is coming, and we have our favorite targets to share with you at the shortstop position. It’s a deep position, but the pundits here at Fake Teams seem inclined to lock up some elite production, as every one of these plays is being drafted inside the top 100 (per the last month of NFBC ADP). So enjoy, and be sure to circle back around midday to catch our staff avoids. You want to avoid the mistakes, after all.</p>
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<img alt="Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MLrxn4M7u88XBGWzf-IltaviOMc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19719280/1172288138.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="TvmKtR">
<span>Xander Bogaerts</span>, <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/zackroto">Zack Waxman</a>)</h2>
<p id="gxSUxq">NFBC ADP: 37.77</p>
<p id="tbn988">There are a lot of shortstops I’d like to target this year, but I will go with <span>Xander Bogaerts</span>. One thing is for certain, I do not want to wait past pick 100. Xander was a target of mine last year and I am still targeting him with his increase in cost. He is currently going in the third round of 15-team leagues. I believe he can put up extremely comparable numbers to Alex Bregman. At this point, I believe the speed is a dead heat and Xander can bring you comparable counting stats, albeit with only slightly less power. I do believe Xander’s batting average tool is superior to Bregman’s. I do not see much room for Bregman to improve on his home run total from last season, while Xander might. When I assess the two players, I really can’t see a lot that distinguishes them. Give me a two-round discount all day.</p>
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OfDhiz6KU0kfU6pZcXJC9MFs4hM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19719285/1169918439.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="m7djQI">
<span>Manny Machado</span>, <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">San Diego Padres</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/DadSox">Jonathan Butler</a>)</h2>
<p id="6YTa5T">NFBC ADP: 61.92</p>
<p id="etj1lF">I don’t expect him to be the same near .300 hitter that he was in Baltimore, but with another season in the NL and seeing pitchers that he saw for the first time last year, he should improve upon his .256 average and .462 slugging. He is not out of his prime and with additions like <span>Tommy Pham</span> and <span>Trent Grisham</span>, the Padres offense has gotten deeper. This will benefit <span>Machado</span> for sure. <span>Machado</span> stayed patient at the plate with a 9.8 BB% compared to his 9.9% from 2018. With a slight bump in BABIP luck, I could see <span>Machado</span> as a .285 BA and 30+ HR hitter with a handful of steals coming in at pick 62.</p>
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<img alt="Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2RLnEzRDyb4Z8y0mZZ4Zx8QYPEw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19719292/1176612464.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="duktfg">
<span>Bo Bichette</span>, <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/MWAbell">Mark Abell</a>)</h2>
<p id="1l8l2G">NFBC ADP: 69.67</p>
<p id="uOXL6Y">Bichette played approximately one third of a season last year and hit 11 homers with 32 runs, 21 RBIs, four stolen bases, and a .311 average. He put up these numbers with a respectable line drive rate (23%) but a very high ground ball rate (50%). One advantage Bo has is his spray chart, where a majority of his hits go to the opposite field. His 12.5% swinging strike rate and solid 6% walk rate over his first 46 games at the MLB level show me the poise I like to see.</p>
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<img alt="Wild Card Round - Tampa Bay Rays v Oakland Athletics" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MDVm8Ak_V8OUUUIBQDVfr2BvTwE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19719313/1178676845.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="gqB0tY">
<span>Marcus Semien</span>, <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/13atkins13">Garrett Atkins</a>)</h2>
<p id="Y5m6L7">NFBC ADP: 90.63</p>
<p id="lROGgX">What if I told you, you could draft the third place finisher in AL MVP outside of the top 75? Pretty sweet deal, huh? This is <span>Marcus Semien</span>! Semien had a huge breakout season in 2019, hitting .285 with a .892 OPS, 33 homers, 92 RBIs, 123 runs, and 10 steals. A true career year for him. I’m a believer! Career high barrel percentage, career high average exit velocity, and a career high hard hit percentage. He also had a career low strikeout rate and a career high walk rate. Do I need to say more? His expected stats are right in line with the actual production too. I’m taking Semien in a ton of drafts this year.</p>
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<img alt="Detroit Tigers v Chicago White Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/X2JUI9TdYAYg3aBXZ5ScCmoKDdo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19719349/1181666416.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="FGPSQe">
<span>Tim Anderson</span>, <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">Chicago White Sox</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/HeathCapps">Heath Capps</a>)</h2>
<p id="Q4gnNq">NFBC ADP: 99.65</p>
<p id="zqo4Lh">According to ATC projections, here are the MLB players projected to belong to the 20/20 club in 2020 and their respective NFBC ADPs:</p>
<p id="gSLRwj">1 Ronald Acuña Jr.<br>3 <span>Christian Yelich</span><br>8 <span>Francisco Lindor</span><br>9 <span>Trevor Story</span><br>10 <span>Trea Turner</span><br>16 <span>Fernando Tatis Jr.</span><br>19 <span>Jose Ramirez</span><br>31 <span>Starling Marte</span><br>76 Tommy Pham<br>98 <span>Tim Anderson</span></p>
<p id="zv1cU1">Maybe <span>Anderson</span>’s sprained right ankle that cost him a 20/20 season last year is partially to thank for this draft day discount? Maybe people are counting him out too much due last year’s .399 BABIP? He doesn’t walk, sure. But his strikeout rate continues to descend (only 21.0% last year) and his ISO is moving in the right direction (.145, .166, .173 last three years). His line drive rate is also improving, as he set a career-high last year at 23.8%. Add in last year’s xBA of .294 (Top 8% of the MLB) and his 88th percentile sprint speed, and I’m sold. I haven’t even mentioned the strength of the White Sox lineup. The ATC projects career marks in runs and RBIs for <span>Anderson</span> this year, for good reason. If everyone will ignore this paragraph and continue letting <span>Anderson</span> fall into my lap, I’d be just dandy.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/14/21137278/fantasy-baseball-shortstops-to-target-in-2020Heath CappsZackwaxDadSoxMark AbellGarrett Atkins2020-02-12T09:00:00-05:002020-02-12T09:00:00-05:005 bold shortstop predictions for 2020
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>What more do you want from Xander Bogaerts?</p> <p id="fX4Z0u">Shortstop Week is in full swing. We’ve discussed rankings, the state of the position, sleepers, and deeper sleepers...all in just two days! Today it’s time for some bold predictions...</p>
<h3 id="ceKR9C">1. Shortstops’ slugging percentage went up 10% between 2018 and 2019, and I think it goes up another 5% in 2020 as the position moves from being the 3rd worst position to being the 4th best position in Slugging.</h3>
<p id="GcKCTp"><strong>Justification</strong>: Last year was the year of steals and at-bats. This year, unlike many others who I think the shortstop position will decline in power, I see the swing-and-miss pedigrees of <span>Trevor Story</span>, <span>Adalberto Mondesi</span>, <span>Gleyber Torres</span>, <span>Manny Machado</span>, <span>Amed Rosario</span>, <span>Dansby Swanson</span>, <span>Xander Bogaerts</span> and <span>Jorge Polanco</span> (all top 100 in strikeouts) not to mention <span>Fernando Tatis</span>, JP Crawford and <span>Carlos Correa</span> contributing to the year of JASS (Just another slugging shortstop).</p>
<h3 id="ffAy3u">2. Fernando Tatis does not finish as a top 10 shortstop.</h3>
<p id="nfFQY4"><strong>Justification</strong>: Consider me OFF the hype train. He is a classic example of what is wildly entertaining vs. what is production for fantasy. I have three primary concerns for Fernando. First are injuries, of which he has already shown a steady stream. Second is strikeouts, last season among the top 50 shortstops in strikeouts per at-bat, Fernando was the 5th highest (33%). Finally, for as flawed as the metric can be, he had a BABIP of .410 last year. That will be regressing, take that to the bank.</p>
<h3 id="qXJKKm">3. <span>Xander Bogaerts</span> is a top three shortstop.</h3>
<p id="qfoY8c"><strong>Justification</strong>: I don’t know what else Xander has to prove. He now has over 100 RBIs in back-to-back seasons, which only <span>Bregman</span> has done among shortstops. He’s been in the top six in slugging percentage, he was 5th in runs, and he now has 20+ home runs in three of his last four seasons. </p>
<h3 id="mgoOgO">4. <span>Didi Gregorius</span> is a top 10 shortstop this year.</h3>
<p id="ZaBwDZ"><strong>Justification</strong>: Take his total runs, RBIs, steals, and homers over the last two years and put them on a per AB basis and Didi is a the 9th best shortstop. The ONLY major obstacle is Citizens Bank Park vs. Yankee Stadium but I think Didi will be higher in the lineup than the 5th/6th that he normally was with the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>. Finally, his BABIP was LOW last year (.237), I think now with full health on his side, he shines.<strong> </strong></p>
<h3 id="VTMBRV">5. Shortstops are 2nd among all positions in XBH.</h3>
<p id="PZEOPm"><strong>Justification</strong>: Last year they were behind second base, third base and first base…oh and right field. This year the power is in check and I think whether it be doubles (Xander, Francisco, and Trevor excel) or triples (<span>Amed Rosario</span> and <span>Javier Baez</span>), or even HR (which include most of the aforementioned names), I think we see Fernando, <span>Machado</span>, Didi, and <span>Marcus Semien</span> join the ranks.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="Jb7SsY">
<h3 id="wjnEv6"><strong>2019 (Last Year’s) Bold Shortstop Predictions</strong></h3>
<p id="m3LRFZ"><strong>1 . At-bats for the total MLB is led by two shortstops.</strong></p>
<p id="6Ath7k"><strong>Result</strong>: So one of the top two spots was a SS (<span>Marcus Semien</span> with 657 AB), <span>Whit Merrifield</span> took top billings and <span>Jonathan Villar</span> was 4<sup>th</sup> (642) so I was quite close but not quite there.</p>
<p id="G6zVay"><strong>2. Five of the Top 15 players in steals are shortstops. </strong></p>
<p id="PaYwx6"><strong>Result</strong>: Alberto <span>Mondesi</span> (2<sup>nd</sup>), <span>Trea Turner</span> (5<sup>th</sup>), <span>Elvis Andrus</span> (6<sup>th</sup>), <span>Trevor Story</span> (15<sup>th</sup>Add in <span>Bregman</span> or <span>Villar</span> and you have it.</p>
<p id="5q03Hd"><strong>3. </strong><span><strong>Amed Rosario</strong></span><strong> is a Top 10 shortstop (currently ranked in the 15-20 range) </strong></p>
<p id="emZEgh"><strong>Result</strong>: Amed landed right in the anticipated range at 18<sup>th</sup>-19<sup>th</sup> area. He had 75 Runs, 72 RBis, 19 SB and a .287 avg.</p>
<p id="tgHugL"><strong>4. </strong><span><strong>Francisco Lindor</strong></span><strong> will not eclipse 100 runs OR 100 RBIs this season. </strong></p>
<p id="Rr2l24"><strong>Result</strong>: BAAAARELY got there with 101 runs and 74 RBIs. I personally believe it was the 22 SB that really carred Francisco’s 2019 numbers forward for fantasy purposes. He was seventh in Runs and 14<sup>th</sup> in RBIs while being 17<sup>th</sup> in batting Avg. </p>
<p id="KhGcpj"><strong>5. No shortstop lands in the Top 10 in home runs this year.</strong></p>
<p id="KCgorO"><strong>Result</strong>: This prediction was correct IF you don’t count <span>Alex Bregman</span> who was 7<sup>th</sup> with 41HR. After that <span>Gleyber Torres</span> had 38 putting him at 12<sup>th</sup>. So this, much like a few others, was so/so.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/12/21134013/fantasy-baseball-5-bold-shortstop-predictions-for-2020Mark Abell2020-02-11T14:30:00-05:002020-02-11T14:30:00-05:005 shortstops to target in deep leagues
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>You’re ignoring guys like Willy Adames and Nick Ahmed, and you shouldn’t be.</p> <p id="4kbDX2">On Sunday, I explored Fangraphs leaderboards in search of some sneaky starting pitching options. I came up with <span>Joe Musgrove</span>, <span>Marcus Stroman</span>, <span>Cole Hamels</span>, and <span>Spencer Turnbull</span>. You can check that out if you feel so inclined.</p>
<aside id="kamzZP"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Starting Pitcher Sleepers for 2020","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/8/21129374/starting-pitcher-sleepers-for-2020"}]}'></div></aside><p id="ighg0O">For simplicity’s sake, I pored over 2019 leaderboards for home runs and stolen bases. I wanted to see if any names surprised me in the shortstop ranks, and there were a few that I chose to dig into a bit more.</p>
<p id="Um3k6y">The home run leaders at shortstop from 2019 weren’t surprising through the first six names:</p>
<p id="11ate6"><span>Alex Bregman</span> (41), <span>Gleyber Torres</span> (38), <span>Trevor Story</span> (35), <span>Marcus Semien</span> (33), <span>Xander Bogaerts</span> (33), and <span>Francisco Lindor</span> (32) are the top six.</p>
<p id="nldx3X">Three of these (<span>Lindor</span>, <span>Story</span>, and <span>Bregman</span>) are first round picks in 2020. <span>Torres</span> (pick 30) and <span>Bogaerts</span> (38) aren’t far behind. Semien (pick 90) is the “cheapest” in this grouping. But the next guy was interesting...</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="League Championship Series - St Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals - Game Four" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yv7EhY4k5oPSKNg8Tv4A1g_7VT8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19707981/1181348435.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Nope, that’s not Matt Carpenter.</figcaption>
</figure>
<h3 id="43BKSg">Maybe we should bank on this guy, like the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a> are...</h3>
<p id="xxCP5W"><span>Paul DeJong</span> (30) was next on the list (7th) among all shortstops in homers last year. That’s interesting, as he’s the misfit according to NFBC ADP right now, at pick 196. I’ll confess, I didn’t know he was only 26 years old. Feels like he’s been around longer. He’s posted seasons of 25, 19, and 30 home runs in his three big league stints. He has also trimmed his strikeout rate over that stretch, at 28.0%, 25.1%, and 22.4%. It’s a concern that his BABIP and batting average marks have dropped each year, but in his first two seasons he did post healthy line drive rates of 23.5% and 24.2%. Last year he traded those line drives for more ground balls, but at least we’ve seen two years of being a plus in the line drive department.</p>
<p id="YkusJu">DeJong also stole nine bags in 2019, after swiping only one in each of his first two years. His 27.6 ft/s sprint speed ranked in the 67th percentile—not elite, but enough to do a little damage if he keeps getting attempts. He’s spent the most time batting third in the order in all three of his big league seasons. So opportunity doesn’t seem to be an issue, especially not in this watered down Cardinals lineup.</p>
<p id="qWSbJL">One potential problem is his performance against southpaws, as in Year 2 he batted only .198 with three of his 19 homers. In Year 3 (last season) he batted .221 with only three of his 30 homers. His strikeout rates against lefty pitching began ghastly, but have improved over his three years (33.0%, 29.1%, and 25.4%). At least they are dropping! I could live with 25% in his worst split if he was raking against righty pitching. Against righty pitching, <span>DeJong</span> has strikeout rates of 26.8%, 23.7%, and 21.7%. These trends are obviously positive.</p>
<p id="fmlExP"><span>DeJong</span>’s walk rate over his three seasons is similarly encouraging, at 4.7%, 7.3%, and 9.3%. Currently, he’s projected to bat cleanup for St. Louis, after <span>Dexter Fowler</span>, <span>Kolten Wong</span>, and Paul Goldschmidt. He’s all but guaranteed a top four spot in this lineup. Even if <span>Tommy Edman</span> slides up in the order, I think that would affect <span>Fowler</span> adversely, not <span>DeJong</span>.</p>
<p id="WArEHc">The overall improvement with the stick is encouraging, as DeJong also ranks in the 98th percentile for Statcast’s new OAA index for infielders. In short, he should be afforded plenty of opportunity to continue improving with the bat based on his strong defense.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Divisional Series - Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays - Game Three" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DMbrFd3jrfljq_SP3tzQm8WG1ig=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19707979/1179646590.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="XqISzp">If the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> let him play...</h3>
<p id="N5pSi3"><span>Willy Adames</span> (20 homers) ranked 12th on the list, but slashed a really pedestrian .254/.317/.418. However, his swinging strike rate dropped from 12.0% to 11.4%, as he improved both his contact rate and zone contact rate to within a percent of league average. His chase rate was again better than average (27.6% and 27.5% in his first two years) and his Z-Swing% was again over 70% (league average in 2019 was 68.5%). Okay, new paragraph...</p>
<p id="jpciRB">Adames’ hard hit rate jumped from 34.7% to 42.1% last year. His soft contact rate fell from 17.3% to 13.4%. He beefed up his line drive rate, from 17.5% to 22.9%. And his fly ball rate stayed intact, at 30.4% and 30.3%...meaning he traded out ground balls for those line drives. We like that.</p>
<p id="ybgelf">Per Statcast, Adames’ barrel rate improved from 6.6% to 8.4%. His exit velocity jumped from 86.5 mph to 87.8 mph (MLB average was 87.5 mph). His average launch angle rose from 8.6 degrees to 10.0 degrees (so maybe we can trust those line drives). His xBA rose from .225 to .249. His xSLG had a massive jump, from .363 to .433. Last year’s .433 mark only puts him in the 40th percentile of the MLB, but at least the trend is positive. He’s hitting the ball harder and with more loft, and making more contact. Seems like a good recipe...</p>
<p id="0nSPEq">I wonder how much playing time he’ll get in 2020? He could be a dirt cheap bench guy to cover your MI slot when you need it. With an ADP of 312, he’s going after guys like <span>Jon Berti</span> (261) and <span>Carter Kieboom</span> (288), neither of whom have starting jobs promised to them. Or maybe the Rays will sign <span>Troy Tulowitzki</span> off the street. I mean, we can’t just give the young guy full-time at-bats, can we? That would just be insane.</p>
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Pwjn7WrjPqxQ3lOobj8bN9lT-Vo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19707987/1168410121.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="oTi7qC">Further improvement for this everyday fixture in Arizona?</h3>
<p id="2FyAMb">There was one other bat on the home run leaderboard I wanted to scope out, and that’s 29-year-old <span>Nick Ahmed</span>. Ahmed’s 19 homers were tied with <span>Trea Turner</span> and <span>Corey Seager</span> for 13th in the MLB in 2019. Ahmed also hit one more homer than <span>Tim Anderson</span>. Quality company, right? And unlike <span>Freddy Galvis</span>—who popped 23 homers—Ahmed actually has some on-base skills, with an 8.3% walk rate last year. Ahmed also swiped eight bags. And despite the modest steals output, he’s pretty fast. His 28.2 ft/s sprint speed ranked in the 79th percentile last year.</p>
<p id="2VEZDR">Like <span>Adames</span>, Ahmed’s overall slash line was fairly pedestrian, at .254/.316/.437. However, Ahmed has only been a regular for the past two years. His walk rate has improved from 7.1% to 8.3%. His strikeout rate dropped from 19.3% to 18.1%. I don’t like last year’s 48.3% ground ball rate, but the year prior he was at 40.8% and he hit far more line drives (24.4%). In only his third season as an everyday player, I think there’s some room for continued growth. The <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> must agree with me, as Ahmed got paid on Monday—a four-year contract worth $32.5 million.</p>
<p id="xmPJ7v">Ahmed’s plate discipline has improved, with growth in many areas. His chase rate (34.2% down to 31.0%), zone swing rate (70.3% up to 73.4%), and swinging strike rate (13.5% to 11.7% to 10.0% last three years) are all encouraging. He’s also about 4% better than average with regard to zone contact rate, and around 3% better than average in overall contact rate. He’s expected to bat seventh for Arizona in the everyday lineup, and offers 15/10 upside. That’s not the worst, especially at his rock bottom 444 ADP. For reference, <span>David Fletcher</span> doesn’t even have a starting gig and is being drafted 100 picks earlier.</p>
<p id="th06BS"><em>It should be noted that I omitted </em><span><em>Freddy Galvis</em></span><em> and his 23 dingers. I can’t get into him with that 4.8% walk rate and .296 OBP. Yikes. His speed output has really dwindled, too, and he’s 30 years old now. No thanks.</em></p>
<p id="YYFoOZ">All right, enough on power. I feel the need...the need...for speed!</p>
<p id="6A9lo9">Did you know <span>Elvis Andrus</span> swiped 31 bags last year? Me either! I didn’t have Andrus on any of my teams, and sometimes you just miss those guys you don’t have any shares of. Looks like that 136 ADP (tied with <span>Amed Rosario</span>) isn’t too crazy after all. Anyway, we’d better check out the steals leaderboard.</p>
<p id="EpIxrZ">Other than <span>Andrus</span>, there were no surprises early. <span>Jonathan Villar</span> (40), <span>Trea Turner</span> (35), <span>Andrus</span>, <span>Trevor Story</span> (23), and <span>Francisco Lindor</span> (22) were at the top of the list. The aforementioned <span>Rosario</span> had 19, and the underrated <span>Tim Anderson</span> stole 17. After that...</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Pittsburgh Pirates v Colorado Rockies" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SVz_g9BP1l2V1GOiPMO2Ib_3kOE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19708006/1164737622.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="S4F384">
<span>Kevin Newman</span> looks solid</h3>
<p id="IA9xyx">Kevin Newman’s 16 steals ranked eighth among qualified MLB shortstops last season. His paltry 11.7% strikeout rate was also the best (read: lowest) among his shortstop peers. He’s not powerless like <span>Miguel Rojas</span>, either. Newman rapped out a tolerable 12 homers with his .138 ISO. He slashed .308/.353/.446, and he did so in only 130 games (531 PA). To put it differently, he ranked 22nd in plate appearances, but eighth in steals. You could add 100 plate appearances to his tally from 2019 and he’d still have only finished 11th among shortstops (one spot ahead of <span>Nick Ahmed</span>). So what’s up with his playing time in Pittsburgh? The <a href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/">Pirates</a> just jettisoned <span>Starling Marte</span>, leaving a gaping chasm atop their lineup. Currently it’s the lefty <span>Adam Frazier</span> slotted into the leadoff role, with the righty <span>Bryan Reynolds</span> in the two-spot. And against righties, perhaps the Pirates will give <span>Frazier</span> a decent leash, due to last year’s .285/.346/.436 slash line in that split (and 9 of his 10 homers). However, <span>Frazier</span> only slashed .259/.307/.364 against lefties. In steps Newman.</p>
<p id="9H3Qbl">Newman slashed .286/.348/.381 against southpaws. Yes, the .095 ISO is disturbing, but Newman was at a more robust .153 ISO against righties, against whom he slugged 11 of his 12 homers. I’m not suggesting he’ll set the world on fire, but I do think he has a chance to bat leadoff against lefty pitchers given the .348 OBP and minuscule 8.6% strikeout rate in that split. And on days when the Pirates face a righty, he’ll drop down to the middle of the order and focus on driving in runs.</p>
<p id="CukvTh">The problem is we aren’t getting a huge draft day discount, at only a 191 ADP. But the 28.5 ft/s sprint speed is legit, in the 84th percentile. The barrel rate of 2.1% leaves a lot to be desired, but it’s the .291 xBA mark from last year that we like—it ranked inside the Top 10% of the MLB. You’re not taking Newman for power, but if he gets plenty of at-bats he could push for 15 or so. Add in 20-something steals, and now we’re in business. I don’t hate him at his ADP, but I do wish he’d fall just a tad.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Divisional Series - St Louis Cardinals v Atlanta Braves - Game Five" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ii4A7DYA40hlvJ2jApq7T7357BY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19708049/1180079997.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="kJplpl">
<span>Dansby Swanson</span> is a buy-low candidate...</h3>
<p id="X9a2B5"><span>Swanson</span>’s 10 steals were tied for 10th among qualified shortstops, alongside <span>Marcus Semien</span> and Jean Segura. He also popped 17 homers, which only ranked 17th among his brethren...but there’s a caveat. Check out his splits for the first half versus the second:</p>
<p id="LUnKft">1H: .270/.330/.493, 17 HR, 7 SB, 7.6% walk rate, 19.7% strikeout rate<br>2H: .204/.315/.254, 0 HR, 3 SB, 13.3% walk rate, 29.7% strikeout rate</p>
<p id="mHFjIG">Don’t get too hung up on the counting stats, as we’re comparing different sample sizes (87 games to 38). <span>Swanson</span>’s right heel injury in the summer derailed him, at least from a power standpoint. I for one remember stacking <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a> repeatedly after he returned, hoping to buy low. Sadly, the power did not return with Swanson, something my bankroll can attest to. But overall, you’re looking at a 25-year-old whose defense is excellent, and who has given us seasons of 14/10 and 17/10 in his last two tries. And in 2019, he hit the ball harder and with more loft, trading out ground balls for far more line drives (a very healthy 25.8%). I’m taking this injury discount all the way to the fantasy promised land in 2020.</p>
<p id="XwH3b3">Here are these guys ranked by their respective average ADPs per the NFBC:</p>
<p id="h5rwx9">192 Kevin Newman<br>196 <span>Paul DeJong</span><br>255 Dansby Swanson<br>308 Willy Adames<br>427 <span>Nick Ahmed</span></p>
<p id="uYGw2F">Who do you guys like the most, considering skill set, situation, ADP?</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/11/21130142/fantasy-baseball-deep-league-sleepers-shortstops-in-2020Heath Capps2020-02-11T08:05:00-05:002020-02-11T08:05:00-05:00Top shortstop sleepers in 2020 fantasy baseball
<figure>
<img alt="Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YMvXNq8x97xlc7Rp1NzvYBmLJaA=/0x0:3194x2129/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/66291029/1174625424.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Shortstop is deeeeep. Here are some great targets going late who could return big time value in 2020. </p> <p id="SyEKTZ">Shortstop is a position with a huge amount of star power. There are four shortstops, <span>Francisco Lindor</span>, <span>Trevor Story</span>, <span>Trea Turner</span>, and <span>Alex Bregman</span>, who can lay claim to first round status. In addition, <span>Javier Baez</span>, <span>Fernando Tatis Jr.</span>, and <span>Gleyber Torres</span> have the upside of top 20 picks. Chances are, you'll land one of these studs on draft day. That being said, you can still grab great value late to stash at middle infield or the utility position.</p>
<p id="I6jPKr">Here are several sleeper targets at shortstop going outside the top 150 in NFBC drafts.</p>
<h2 id="Ia6w9t"><span>Corey Seager</span></h2>
<h4 id="P04Wo7">My Rank: 15<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 18<br>NFBC ADP: 153</h4>
<p id="bg4oPe">I wrote this article specifically targeting <span>Seager</span>. I thought I was going to have to sneak him in ignoring the "outside the top 150" rule. I was stunned to see him going legitimately outside the top 150! <span>Seager</span> has long been debated among fantasy analysts. I've even been a detractor of his, but not this season. In 2019, Seager hit .272 with a .817 OPS in 134 games. Both were career lows. Keep in mind, Seager was returning from multiple injuries sustained in 2018. After a slow start, Seager was his normal self. From June 1st onward, he hit .288 with 12 home runs, 46 runs, and 58 RBIs. That paces out to 25 homers, 96 runs, and 121 RBIs. Little known secret, the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> have a pretty good offense. Seager should rack up a ton of counting stats. He has top 30 hitter upside if he stays healthy.</p>
<h2 id="dTdxZR"><span>Didi Gregorius</span></h2>
<h4 id="9yq3qI">My Rank: 21<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 23<br>NFBC ADP: 200</h4>
<p id="aYE1NP">The case for Sir Didi is similar to that of <span>Seager's</span>. <span>Gregorius</span> was great for three seasons prior, then got hurt and his injury lingered and dragged down his 2019 numbers. But from 2016-2018, Gregorius averaged 24 homers, 81 RBIs, and 77 runs. Solid numbers. I see similar production coming in 2020 with even more counting stats now that he'll be in a better lineup spot with Philadelphia.</p>
<h2 id="emdSE4"><span>Dansby Swanson</span></h2>
<h4 id="DUCpn7">My Rank: 24<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 24<br>NFBC ADP: 256</h4>
<p id="mjQVPu"><span>Swanson</span> was enjoying a breakout season until it was derailed by a heel injury. Through the first 100 games of 2019, <span>Swanson</span> hit .265 with 17 home runs, seven steals, 57 RBIs, and 64 runs. That's top 50 value. In addition, <span>Swanson's</span> expected stats were great. A .271 xBA, .480 xSLG, and .347 xwOBA. This leads me to believe Swanson could be even better in 2020. The former first overall pick is a steal going outside the top 250 in drafts.</p>
<h2 id="Sme2RY"><span>Jon Berti</span></h2>
<h4 id="p2SUAw">My Rank: 25<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 25<br>NFBC ADP: 259</h4>
<p id="cVO0l0">Speaking of steals. Do you need some cheap speed? Look no further than Jon Berti of the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a>. Berti finished 2019 with the big league club and swiped 16 bags over the final 50 games. That's a 50-steal pace! He was 98th percentile in sprint speed, y'all! Now entering his age-30 season, Berti will be overlooked by many, especially casual players. He broke out when most were focusing on that football game—plus, he plays for the Marlins. Use that to grab him towards the end of your drafts.</p>
<h2 id="n06lf5"><span>Carter Kieboom</span></h2>
<h4 id="r1lsqs">My Rank: 26<br>Expert Consensus Rank: 27<br>NFBC ADP: 291</h4>
<p id="FBq8Zh">When a highly touted prospect debuts and fails he usually falls down fantasy owners' draft boards. This is what is happening to Carter Kieboom. Kieboom was up for 11 games in 2019, hitting a lowly .128 and striking out 16 times in just 43 plate appearances. However, in the minors, Kieboom slashed .303/.409/.493 over 109 games at Triple-A. He also posted a .68 BB/K ratio in the minors compared to his absurd .25 BB/K ratio at the major league level. The top <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Nationals</a> prospect opens camp as the primary third base option. Kieboom will look to put up numbers more closely in line with his minor league output in 2020.</p>
<p id="hGHpMx">And that’s it for sleepers at shortstop!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/11/21131553/fantasy-baseball-shortstop-middle-infield-target-2020-sleepers-prospects-busts-steals-home-runsGarrett Atkins2020-02-10T15:00:00-05:002020-02-10T15:00:00-05:00State of the Position: Shortstops in 2020
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations</figcaption>
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<p>Heath examines the shortstop position with a fantasy baseball slant.</p> <p id="Afyl4g">Loaded. That is the state of the shortstop position.</p>
<p id="9kaNAv"><span>Javier Baez</span> has an ADP of 41 per recent NFBC data, and he is the 10th shortstop being drafted. So, on average, a quarter of the first 40 picks in your fake draft are shortstop-eligible players. And that number doesn’t even include <span>Manny Machado</span>, who has an ADP of 62. It also doesn’t include last year’s standout <span>Marcus Semien</span> (89), the studly but rarely healthy <span>Carlos Correa</span> (97), and the underrated 20/20 threat <span>Tim Anderson</span> (98). Again, loaded!</p>
<p id="vVLT42">The list goes on, with upside plays like <span>Amed Rosario</span> and <span>Jorge Polanco</span> being drafted around picks 130-150. There’s also this very fine quartet that I ran a poll on yesterday, a group that can be drafted anywhere from picks 170-190:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Shortstop Week starts tomorrow morning with our consensus rankings! Here’s a preview of four guys who are close together. Pick one!</p>— Fake Teams (@faketeams) <a href="https://twitter.com/faketeams/status/1226694030437834753?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2020</a>
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<p id="71N8kM">Make sure you get your vote on. Anyway, <span>Dansby Swanson</span> and <span>Jon Berti</span> have some category juice and are being drafted after pick 250, to give you an idea of the depth. You’ll likely be finding your middle infield option among available shortstops if you’re playing in a format that requires such.</p>
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<img alt="2019 World Series Game 4 - Houston Astros v. Washington Nationals" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-79lvybDT_NTbDKBvNwAHAPIdJ8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19709044/1178413956.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="vzWd7k">The Elites: <span>Francisco Lindor</span>, <span>Trevor Story</span>, <span>Trea Turner</span>, <span>Alex Bregman</span>
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<p id="acTLpI">The prize here is <span>Trevor Story</span>, in my opinion. He is the “faller” in this group on occasion, which is crazy to me with Coors as his backdrop. I really think it’s a coin flip between he and <span>Lindor</span>. If I’ve got to choose, I’m choosing to side with Coors. You’ll have to make your own decisions on a guy like <span>Alex Bregman</span>, given the entire Houston fiasco. Me, I’m a little more down on him than most (I’d rather wait on a guy like Bogaerts) so I probably won’t own him. All that said, I think there’s probably no way you go wrong in this tier—it’s just all about your preference.</p>
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<img alt="Detroit Tigers v Chicago White Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uxRX6Qj3Nxr2_N2ElFPCW1fA4lo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19710035/1178239710.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="dKiofI">“One” to Target: <span>Manny Machado</span> and Tim Anderson</h2>
<p id="stPpLe">This is a simple nod to his ADP, as I think pick 60 is too low for a man of Machado’s talents and consistency. <span>Machado</span> has five straight seasons of 30+ home runs. That’s no small feat, especially for a man who is shortstop-eligible. In fact, during that time frame of 2015-2019, <span>Machado</span>’s 174 homers rank 7th in all of the MLB...and there are no shortstops ahead of him. <span>Francisco Lindor</span> is the second shortstop on the list, and he’s 26th overall with 130 homers over said stretch. And sure, 2015 was abbreviated for <span>Lindor</span> (only 99 games) but he’s still nowhere close in general.</p>
<p id="NsXsBu">And sure, if you’re planning to use <span>Machado</span> as a third baseman, that’s cool. And it’s probably smart, given the relative dearth of talent at the hot corner compared to shortstop. So I’ll give you another target at shortstop, and for me it’s the disrespected <span>Tim Anderson</span> in a loaded-for-bear <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">Chicago White Sox</a> lineup. <span>Anderson</span> is one of the better 20/20 threats in the game, but his ADP of 99 overall doesn’t really reflect it.</p>
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<img alt="World Series - Washington Nationals v Houston Astros - Game Seven" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/74qUmp-i-YUvqAWxgyMR7hR9hKE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19709046/1184522700.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Elsa/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="jnsmnO">“One” to Avoid: <span>Carlos Correa</span> and <span>Corey Seager</span>
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<p id="RyiBbF">I couldn’t decide, so I’ll just be avoiding both. <span>Correa</span>’s argument is simple. He can’t stay healthy and his ADP is too high for my liking. Give me <span>Tim Anderson</span> instead. That said, if you’re in a format where you’re swinging for the proverbial fences and chasing upside, Correa definitely represents a way you could do so. He did bang out 21 homers in only 75 games last year, after all. I’d just prefer to take my shots elsewhere.</p>
<p id="M7MYTC">As for <span>Seager</span>, he’s kind of the same story. His playing time has suffered in the last two seasons due to injury, and he hasn’t been running lately (he stole one base in 2018 and 2019 combined). Sure, the surrounding lineup is loaded. But he’s basically <span>Paul DeJong</span> with less power and a better batting average. <span>DeJong</span> I can get about 50 picks later, and I’d rather go that way if I was searching for power from a middle infielder.</p>
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<img alt="Divisional Series - Atlanta Braves v St Louis Cardinals - Game Three" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/flPRd8tfjzegx-rx-NawMew7RYI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19710008/1179458520.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="EiCZtW">The Sleeper: <span>Dansby Swanson</span>
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<p id="H4SK4p">He fits my self-imposed threshold of being outside the top 250 in ADP. He banged out 17 homers in the first half last year, but a heel injury in July disrupted the full-fledged breakout. He’s got 20 homers and 10+ steals written all over him if he can avoid the injury imp in 2020. That’s kind of his deal, though. In 2018 he suffered through a wrist injury. For just one year, I need some good vibes so <span>Swanson</span> can stay healthy. His 28.7 ft/s sprint speed ranks in the 88th percentile, for what it’s worth. And oh yeah—his entire Statcast page is red, in case you were wondering. You can even argue he was a bit unlucky last year, given that his BA was lower than his xBA, and his wOBA was lower than his xwOBA. I like him in a top-heavy <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a> lineup. If he’s raking, I’d think he’s in a run-producing spot in the order.</p>
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<cite>Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images</cite>
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<h2 id="7Bnq7a">The Prospects to Watch: <span>Nico Hoerner</span>, <span>Carter Kieboom</span>, Royce Lewis</h2>
<p id="VSBM9X">Nico Hoerner was needed in Chicago at the end of 2019 when <span>Javier Baez</span> and <span>Addison Russell</span> both succumbed to injuries. Over a 20-game stint, he slashed .282/.305/.436 with three homers and 17 RBIs. His best pathway to at-bats is not at shortstop (<span>Baez</span> is there) but at the keystone, where he will do battle with <span>David Bote</span>, <span>Daniel Descalso</span>, and <span>Robel Garcia</span> for playing time. <span>Ian Happ</span> is also in the mix, but <span>Happ</span> is also competing for a spot in center field. Hoerner himself is also learning center field, in an effort to increase his versatility for the big league club. Anyway, that’s an uninspiring group of names for the young guy to contend with. It’s possible that Hoerner grabs the job prior to Opening Day and runs away with it. He’s never offered a ton of category juice (read: homers and steals) in the minors, but he’s ALWAYS had on-base skills. For reference, his worst OBP in the minors came last year at Triple-A, when he had a .344 OBP. Every other year was over .400. There’s definitely some upside here.</p>
<p id="dbYRnU">Carter Kieboom should be the bell of the ball for the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Nationals</a> at Spring Training. He could be the answer for the Nationals at the hot corner, but given the flurry of activity the Nationals made a few weeks ago in the infield (<span>Asdrubal Cabrera</span>, <span>Starlin Castro</span>) I don’t know how desperately his services will be needed early on in the season. <span>Howie Kendrick</span> could also play some third base, if needed. Overall I see a lot of moving parts in Washington, and for a team that expects to contend, Kieboom will have to really produce in order to siphon at-bats away from some established veterans. I probably won’t have many shares in 2020.</p>
<p id="0JCUIK">Yours truly just locked up his first NFBC 50 a week or so ago, and Lewis was my third shortstop drafted. So I’ve done a bit of homework. Lewis had a solid 2018, but mostly struggled between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2019 (.236/.290/.371). However, he was the MVP of the Arizona Fall League, leading all players in hits (30) and slashing .353/.411/.565. He tallied three homers and 20 RBIs over his 22 games. It’s safe to say he’s got some momentum heading into 2020, and the only question is where he fits into a stacked <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a> team. </p>
<p id="AWIsmc">It seems like it would be a surprise to see Wander Franco or Jeter Downs in the big leagues this year, as the projected ETA for both is 2021. But there’s always the potential for later on in the season, so if you are in a draft-and-hold or another format that allows for some deep shots to be taken, perhaps Downs makes sense now that he’s in Boston. As for Franco, it’s that same argument as with Kieboom, only worse. I don’t even know how some Tampa regulars are going to find at-bats this year—much less the prospect who isn’t even in the bigs yet. I’d lean Downs over Franco if looking into 2020.</p>
<p id="mr7CrF">That’s it for me and the state of the shortstop position. It’s stacked, and there are tons of names I didn’t dig down into—but that’s why we spend and entire week doing so. So ask your questions now, so that we can get to them as the week rolls on...</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/10/21129169/state-of-the-position-shortstops-in-2020Heath Capps2020-02-10T07:29:00-05:002020-02-10T07:29:00-05:002020 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 30 Shortstops
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<img alt="Milwaukee Brewers v Colorado Rockies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_sXsu3KZFIaZJ-_uwJWZBKSbepc=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/66282975/1177772174.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams writers give you their consensus rankings at a stacked position. And okay, we gave you 33 guys, not 30.</p> <p id="KhMudH">If you’re just now tuning in, you’ve missed a few weeks. In the books are catchers, first basemen, and second basemen. We’re getting dangerously close to baseball that counts, people! Never fear, though. We’ve got you covered on the three links below, which can transport you to every bit of content we’ve produced for <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> leagues in 2020 thus far.</p>
<aside id="crUAIJ"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Welcome to Catcher Week","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2020/1/20/21074477/welcome-to-catcher-week-fantasy-baseball"},{"title":"Welcome to First Base Week","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2020/1/27/21083479/fantasy-baseball-first-base"},{"title":"Welcome to Second Base Week ","url":"https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/3/21120128/fantasy-baseball-second-base"}]}'></div></aside><p id="e4ed5C">This week it’s shortstops, a position that everyone agrees is loaded. You’re likely finding your middle infield option among this group. We normally do a top 30, but today I went 33-deep, including all of the players who received a vote from every writer. The 34th man, <span>Freddy Galvis</span>, did not receive a vote inside everyone’s top 35. I felt like that was a good stopping point.</p>
<p id="7QNNxh">Right now, let’s haggle over some shortstops! Who are we too high or low on? Feel free to sort by each writer, or by average rank...whatever you’d like! Make sure to call out who you think is wrong, and why. We’d love to have some friendly banter at what reads like a really fun position for 2020!</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2020/2/10/21130847/2020-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-30-shortstopsHeath CappsDadSoxGarrett AtkinsMark AbellZackwax