Fake Teams - Starting Pitcher WeekThe Key Source For Incisive Fantasy Sports Analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50153/fake-fav.png2018-03-16T16:25:24-04:00http://www.faketeams.com/rss/stream/168734532018-03-16T16:25:24-04:002018-03-16T16:25:24-04:00Staff Post: Three Starting Pitchers to Avoid in 2018
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<img alt="MLB: Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/k9imDxhLrNh9fA5y4YyIkPDGtVo=/0x0:4516x3011/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59058393/usa_today_10208447.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Three of the guys give you some names to avoid in 2018, including Robbie Ray, Lance McCullers, and David Price.</p> <p id="95CFuK">Earlier today we offered up <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/16/17127820/staff-post-three-starting-pitchers-to-target-in-2018">three names to target</a> among all the hurlers. Now it’s time for the yang to that yin. The other side, the underbelly, the equal and opposite reaction—however you want to view it, here are three names to consider avoiding in 2018.</p>
<h3 id="IVHkXs">Staff Post: Starting Pitchers to Avoid in 2018</h3>
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<img alt="MLB: NLDS-Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QzmC41sUn2lQbCkYN4t0h7kAjY0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10441249/usa_today_10333454.jpg">
<cite>Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="8V3QQW"><span>Robbie Ray</span>, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> (Heath Capps)</p>
<p id="sj00jT">ADP: 47.5</p>
<p id="wEcQ5g">My main issue with Ray is his ADP. In my opinion he represents the first of the question marks at the pitching position. With a few guys ahead of him (namely Bumgarner and Syndergaard) our primary concerns are health-related. With Ray that conversation turns to skill set. Among qualified starters last year, Ray allowed the most hard contact (40.4%!) in the league. Hitters also had a .267 BABIP against him, which means only seven pitchers had better luck on balls in play in 2017. Lastly, Ray’s 10.7% walk rate was the worst among qualified starters last year. Oh, I nearly forgot—Ray’s 84.5% strand rate was the second-best in the MLB last year, too. The league average LOB% for starters in 2017 was 72.1%...and Ray’s two previous marks were 68.7% and 73.8% in 2015-2016. For me, I don’t want to draft a guy as my SP1 with those risky parts of his profile. I’d prefer to grab a pitcher earlier or wait for a similarly-risky strikeout guy like <span>Chris Archer</span> a round later. Or wait another round for Aaron Nola. Why do I need to add Ray’s risk to my fake team?</p>
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BJes2rBnHFJWFtLaI7xwxxtiQto=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10441523/usa_today_10706675.jpg">
<cite>Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="6dHP8d"><span>David Price</span>, <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> (Punk is Dead)</p>
<p id="K0nj0e">ADP: 110.3</p>
<p id="GIYEfm">The <span>David Price</span> hype is a bit out of control. His current ADP on FantasyPros is 101 overall. That’s ahead of <span>Zack Godley</span>, <span>Lance McCullers</span> Jr., and Luke Weaver. Last season, Price posted a decent 3.38 ERA but only pitched 74.2 innings. His ERA was 3.82 over his 11 starts. He then missed close to two months before returning in September in a bullpen role. The Red Sox are going to be extremely cautious with Price in 2018. I think 150 innings is a stretch. I’m avoiding him at his current cost.</p>
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/69PLEqgXkjpNb9JjrqsPi-dZyBg=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10441191/usa_today_10661422.jpg">
<cite>Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="Olq3ze">Lance McCullers, <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a> (Eddy Almaguer)</p>
<p id="Ku97TG">ADP: 143.9</p>
<p id="5yXqs9">Lance McCullers has some really good stuff. It’s a shame he’s not going to pitch as many innings as we want to make his 144 ADP worth it. After a hot start punctuated by a 0.99 ERA in May, McCullers’ consistent injury woes dragged him down. This time it was lower back discomfort that derailed his second half. Beginning in July, he gave up 30 ER in 31.1 innings to close out the regular season, finishing the fifth inning just twice in seven starts. The talent is there, but he’s way too risky of a pick. Given the Astros’ loaded bullpen, they aren’t going to push him, either.</p>
<p id="gqjaC5">That’s it for us and for avoids. Make sure to scope out the <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/12/17109412/starting-pitcher-week">starting pitcher stream</a> for all of this week’s chatter on pitchers so far. Happy bracket-busting weekend, and catch up with us next week for relief pitchers, bold predictions, MLB DFS coverage, prospect coverage, and more!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/16/17131080/staff-post-three-starting-pitchers-to-avoid-in-2018Heath CappsEddy AlmaguerGarrett Atkins2018-03-16T14:00:02-04:002018-03-16T14:00:02-04:002018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Starting Pitchers
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jrlsX14ENV4_OEzcYSvqEEUX-7A=/0x0:4044x2696/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59055921/usa_today_10707780.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Nine starting pitchers who might vastly outplay their draft position.</p> <h3 id="yppjvF">
<span><strong>Blake Snell</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.draysbay.com/"><strong>Tampa Bay Rays</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 215.5)</strong>
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<p id="gjuCB9">Snell has the potential to post a 25.0% strikeout rate, but the concern is his high walk rate. His second half of the season was spectacular as he posted a 3.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 3.2 BB/9. His success the second time around was due to a position change on the mound. If Snell can continue the success he had in the second half, he could be a top 30 pitcher in 2018. </p>
<h3 id="s4vxpC">
<span><strong>Michael Clevinger</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.letsgotribe.com/"><strong>Cleveland Indians</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 218.0)</strong>
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<p id="ME39hb">Clevinger was just named one of the Indians’ rotation pieces, so expect his ADP to climb. With his elite strikeout rate and swinging strike rate last season, he has become one of the industry's favorite sleeper picks. His one major flaw is his knack for walking batters. With a 12.0% walk rate, Clevinger could be this year's <span>Robbie Ray</span>. </p>
<h3 id="hQjjv7">
<span><strong>Tanner Roark</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/"><strong>Washington Nationals</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 250.8)</strong>
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<p id="3cVAiJ">Why does everyone hate <span>Tanner Roark</span> so much? I really don't understand why he is going so late in drafts this year. In the past four years, he has posted an ERA below 3.00 twice. He has good control and the upside of a 22.0% strikeout rate. He should get a good amount of wins pitching for a loaded Nationals team this season, so don't be afraid to use a late round pick on this 31-year-old sleeper. </p>
<h3 id="HeqkJ6">
<span><strong>Michael Wacha</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/"><strong>St. Louis Cardinals</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 267.2)</strong>
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<p id="rE014j">It’s easy to forget that Wacha was an All-Star as recently as 2015. With a below average swinging strike rate the past three seasons, it seems that Wacha is spending this spring primarily working on his curveball and cutter. With a good amount of ground balls and low walk rates, Wacha has the potential to be a top 30 starting pitcher if he can miss more bats. </p>
<h3 id="E0h63A">
<span><strong>Luiz Gohara</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/"><strong>Atlanta Braves</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 288.8)</strong>
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<p id="SH2GGB">Gohara made a name for himself after starting the season at A+ and then reaching the majors by the end of the season. When he reached the majors he posted an impressive 13.4% swinging strike rate and 9.51 K/9, making him a consensus top 50 prospect within the industry. At 21 years old he shows a lot of potential, but he does give up a good amount of hard contact and could struggle with walks. His immense upside gives him the potential to be this year’s Robbie Ray, which makes his current ADP a steal in upcoming drafts. </p>
<h3 id="xa4VN0">
<span><strong>Eduardo Rodriguez</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/"><strong>Boston Red Sox</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 338.2)</strong>
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<p id="7oUjXi"><span>Rodriguez</span> was a top prospect coming up through the minors, but truly made a name for himself last year as he struck out more than a batter per inning. With a knee injury, Rodriguez is most likely to miss most of April. His immense upside makes him a great pick at his ADP to stash in your DL spot until he returns.</p>
<h3 id="aXRIkl">
<span><strong>Sean Newcomb</strong></span><strong>, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 350.3)</strong>
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<p id="qznAqQ"><span>Newcomb</span> has struggled with command throughout his years as a professional. While the walks may cause him to have a high WHIP, there is no denying his strikeout potential. With a good strikeout and curveball combination and an 11.1% swinging strike rate, there is no reason to believe that Newcomb cannot strikeout more than a batter an inning. Newcomb has the upside of a <span>Brad Peacock</span> but also has the floor of a <span>Nick Pivetta</span>. </p>
<h3 id="bCX3N3">
<span><strong>Andrew Heaney</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/"><strong>Los Angeles Angels</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 423.8)</strong>
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<p id="wTnTmZ"><span>Heaney</span> has missed a majority of the past two seasons due to injuries, so we have yet to see his full potential. In his small sample size of 21.2 innings last year, we saw him post an incredible 13.5% swinging strike rate. This ability to miss bats could lead to more than a strikeout per inning.</p>
<p id="MBFeGS"><span>Heaney</span> made his second start this spring on March 5 and looked quite good. He went three innings, striking out five batters and allowing just two hits. Don’t expect Heaney to get a whole lot of innings due to his history of injuries and the potential six-man rotation the Angels may implement with the Shohei Otani joining the team. But on a per-start basis, Heaney could become a viable asset for your fantasy team in 2018. </p>
<h3 id="UHEyfB">
<span><strong>Tyler Anderson</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.purplerow.com/"><strong>Colorado Rockies</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 425.0)</strong>
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<p id="SPIRO6">With his ability to induce ground balls and soft contact <span>Anderson</span> can limit the number of home runs against him, even if his home park is in Colorado. While his batted ball data is quite impressive, it is his ability to limit walks while also missing bats that really makes him one of the biggest sleepers going into 2018. With a 12.0% swinging strike rate, it is possible that Anderson averages over a strikeout an inning while also having a walk rate below 8%. This would put him in elite company and makes him worth a flier with your last pick of the draft if you are still in need of starting pitching help.</p>
<p id="OMfjf1"><em><strong>Other Notables: </strong></em><span><em><strong>Jameson Taillon</strong></em></span><em><strong>, </strong></em><span><em><strong>Kevin Gausman</strong></em></span><em><strong>, </strong></em><span><em><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></em></span><em><strong>, </strong></em><span><em><strong>Dinelson Lamet</strong></em></span><em><strong>, </strong></em><span><em><strong>Sean Manaea</strong></em></span><em><strong>, </strong></em><span><em><strong>Patrick Corbin</strong></em></span><em><strong>, </strong></em><span><em><strong>Jordan Montgomery</strong></em></span><em><strong>, </strong></em><span><em><strong>German Marquez</strong></em></span></p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/16/17099354/2018-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-starting-pitchers-breakouts-sp-value-buy-low-canidates-underratedJoe Gentile2018-03-16T07:15:02-04:002018-03-16T07:15:02-04:00Staff Post: Three Starting Pitchers to Target in 2018
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<figcaption>Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams Staff discuss three pitchers to draft, including Aaron Nola, Trevor Bauer, and Chase Anderson.</p> <p id="IjIVkg">You can still access our <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/13/17112500/2018-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-75-starting-pitchers">Top 75 starters</a>, but if you want to hear about a few pitchers we degenerates are specifically targeting in our respective fantasy baseball drafts, you’ve come to the right place.</p>
<h3 id="JSexaz">Staff Post: Starting Pitchers to Target in 2018</h3>
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<cite>Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="tZiny4"><span>Aaron Nola</span>, <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> (Eddy Almaguer)</p>
<p id="VZ0yXo">ADP: 64.3</p>
<p id="5AwtXQ">Sometimes a pitcher is getting so much hype that you feel like you should avoid him. I wouldn’t advise doing that with <span>Aaron Nola</span>. It seems like he is the consensus industry pick to take the next step and become a top-10 pitcher, and for good reason. He just finished a season with a 26.6 K%, a 7.1 BB% and a 3.54 ERA (3.27 FIP) in 168 innings. His fastball ticked up to 92 mph (previously 90 mph), which may not seem like much, but with his control and repertoire it’s more than enough. The only knock against him are the back injuries that plagued him last year, but he’s been healthy thus far. If he can cross 180 innings he is bound to return value, even at his 64th NFBC ADP.</p>
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tZWAlRfOP_cA3TOsGy8jiK6CmB0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10435925/usa_today_10656470.jpg">
<cite>Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="Rau1OP"><span>Trevor Bauer</span>, <a href="https://www.letsgotribe.com/">Indians</a> (Heath Capps)</p>
<p id="QleH2a">ADP: 140.2</p>
<p id="zBtcj0"><span>Trevor Bauer</span> ranked as our SP25 in our <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/13/17112500/2018-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-75-starting-pitchers">consensus rankings</a>, so he deserves a mention in this space. His naysayers will point to his career-long inconsistency, but his supporters can claim his powerful final 12 starts, in which Bauer posted a 2.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The big change? Ditching his cutter in favor of a slider. Still only 27 years old, it’s possible that Bauer has turned the proverbial corner. It’s also possible that his success over a small sample size in 2017 doesn’t hold up for an entire season. At his ADP of 140, though, I’m willing to take a chance—especially since we KNOW his approach is altered. I’d feel less inclined if there wasn’t an obvious explanation for the second half success. Bauer is being drafted two picks ahead of <span>Sonny Gray</span> on average. and I much prefer Bauer over the homer-prone Gray.</p>
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<img alt="MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4YMcMeslHISKGISbes_e-yp-mXY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10435931/usa_today_10315217.jpg">
<cite>Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="NRzq4L"><span>Chase Anderson</span>, <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> (Punk is Dead)</p>
<p id="EV21zO">ADP: 172.8</p>
<p id="yL5VtN">Player A = 14-5 2.90 ERA 1.12 WHIP 7.7 K/9</p>
<p id="ZmTGK4">Player B = 12-4 2.74 ERA 1.09 WHIP 8.5 K/9</p>
<p id="ZsBDQG">Player B ranked higher (#15 SP) than Player A (#16 SP) in 2017. Player A has an ADP of 60 overall. Player B has an ADP of 169 overall. Player A is Dallas Keuchel. Player B is Chase Anderson.</p>
<p id="jA20Ql">That’s it for us with targets this morning. Circle back around for some “avoids” later in the day. And if you missed it, scope out some starting pitcher offerings by checking out the <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/12/17109412/starting-pitcher-week">starting pitcher stream</a> from this week. Peace!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/16/17127820/staff-post-three-starting-pitchers-to-target-in-2018Heath CappsEddy AlmaguerGarrett Atkins2018-03-14T08:30:01-04:002018-03-14T08:30:01-04:00Starting Pitchers to Target in 2018
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<figcaption>Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Plenty of options out there.</p> <p id="uoBDMx">Starting pitchers are by far the most volatile players in fantasy baseball. Take last season’s top 10 starters by rank across the industry. <span>Madison Bumgarner</span>, <span>Noah Syndergaard</span>, <span>Jon Lester</span>, and <span>Johnny Cueto</span> were all much worse than their draft day price. Sure, a couple of those were injury related, but that’s the risk with starting pitchers. Odds are, one (if not two or more) of the SP Big 4 (<span>Clayton Kershaw</span>, <span>Max Scherzer</span>, <span>Chris Sale</span>, <span>Corey Kluber</span>) will be a bust this season, injury related or otherwise. Long story short, I’m here to help you navigate the tricky waters known as starting pitcher. </p>
<h2 id="S2BZV1"><span>Gerrit Cole</span></h2>
<h4 id="hREhkE">Current Rank: 61<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 82</h4>
<p id="7pcDgn">We rarely get excited when a pitcher goes from the National League to the American League, but <span>Cole</span> is the exception. I honestly thought his draft price would be closer to top 15 than just outside the top 20 like it is now. I will take that as a buying opportunity. Cole is a former top prospect who pitched better than his numbers suggest last year. On the surface, Cole went 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA. His underlying stats line up closely to his 2015 season in which he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and was fourth in the NL Cy Young voting. He gave up too many home runs. Through his first four seasons, Cole had a 0.6 HR/9. That number jumped to 1.4 HR/9 in 2017. I’m calling it a fluke. Plus, the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a> are allowing Cole to use his offspeed pitches more frequently. This should help Cole and could even increase his strikeout numbers. He has top 10 SP upside this year.</p>
<h2 id="Avlt2D"><span>Zack Godley</span></h2>
<h4 id="3Qe2LZ">Current Rank: 100<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 126</h4>
<p id="FSCcdO">Godley was a fantasy surprise in 2017. He posted a 3.37 ERA and 9.6 K/9 over 25 starts. His FIP of 3.41 even suggests his performance was legit. Somehow, Godley only managed an 8-9 record. If he can repeat his numbers, he has a real shot at 200 strikeouts. The win-loss record should improve as well. </p>
<p id="efhC32">Side note: The humidor has increased the value of every <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> starter. I like <span>Zack Greinke</span>, <span>Robbie Ray</span>, and <span>Taijuan Walker</span> more than I did in December.</p>
<h2 id="p8XRmF"><span>Jacob Faria</span></h2>
<h4 id="HcO2tH">Current Rank: 178<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 230</h4>
<p id="GIGlDK">After the top 40 at SP you’re really shooting for upside in most leagues. The waiver wire is usually deep enough where even if you miss, you can grab a guy of equal value on waivers. Faria is a pitcher who has real upside if everything clicks. In 14 starts, Faria posted a 3.42 ERA and 8.7 K/9. Through his first 11 starts, Faria had a 2.81 ERA and an even 9 K/9. He got knocked around over his next two outings before going on the DL. I’ll excuse those two games to injury. A solid mid-3.00s ERA with around a strikeout per inning is great value going outside the top 200 in ADP.</p>
<h2 id="gSC0Q2"><span>Mike Clevinger</span></h2>
<h4 id="01EbvG">Current Rank: 203<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 229</h4>
<p id="q7c5t8"><span>Clevinger</span>’s draft stock is sure to rise after news he will begin the year in the <a href="https://www.letsgotribe.com/">Indians</a> rotation. He put up a 3.11 ERA with a 10.1 K/9 over 27 games last season. He walks too many (4.4 BB/9) but the potential for 200 strikeouts on a team where he should get plenty of wins makes Clevinger roster worthy in most formats straight from the jump. </p>
<h2 id="yVxkk9"><span>Michael Wacha</span></h2>
<h4 id="cn3voC">Current Rank: 218<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 252</h4>
<p id="fULsjB">Wacha feels a little forgotten going around 250 overall. His underlying numbers suggest he’s been incredibly unlucky the past two seasons. In 2016 he put up a 5.09 ERA and he posted a 4.13 ERA last season. His FIP those years? 3.91 and 3.63 respectively. He also increased his K/9 last season by 0.8 compared to his career mark. He’s only 26 years old. If he starts pitching closer to his FIP, Wacha will be a solid fantasy starter in 2018.</p>
<p id="zcrZEz">In addition to these players, here are a few other options who are currently ranked outside the Top 300 of the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings:</p>
<p id="MSAl5r"><span>Tyler Chatwood</span><br>My Rank: 295 Expert Consensus Rank: 309<br>5.17 ERA at Coors Field. 3.75 ERA everywhere else.</p>
<p id="V6txGf"><span>Matt Shoemaker</span><br>My Rank: 318 Expert Consensus Rank: 361<br>Has been great for stretches over his career. </p>
<p id="m0fFdZ"><span>Nick Pivetta</span><br>My Rank: 422 Expert Consensus Rank: 458<br>9.5 K/9 last season. Risk/reward pick.</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/14/17113496/fantasy-baseball-sleepers-targets-pitchers-starter-gerrit-cole-zack-godley-jacob-faria-michael-wachaGarrett Atkins2018-03-13T10:00:08-04:002018-03-13T10:00:08-04:00Top 75 Starting Pitchers for 2018
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l_o1HwIGof7SE5ztPDOrWt2KWEU=/108x0:3510x2268/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59004479/usa_today_10685772.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Garrett (Punk), Eddy, and Heath rank the Top 75 hurlers. Because once you get to Rick Porcello, it’s time to call it a day.</p> <p id="FLD0MD">Yesterday the <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/12/17108166/state-of-the-position-starting-pitcher">state of the position</a> for pitchers dropped. Garrett also discussed recent transactions in <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/12/17109002/fantasy-baseball-news-free-agent-signings-jake-arrieta-lance-lynn-jonathan-lucroy-carlos-martinez">yesterday’s Roto Report</a> (Arrieta, Lynn, Lucroy). I gave my thoughts on <span>Neil Walker</span> signing with the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>. Hint, I like it.</p>
<p id="mYWAva">Today, Eddy chimed in with his coveted <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/13/17111712/starting-pitchers-the-elite-the-middle-and-the-bargain">three-tier piece</a>. Inside, you can find his favorite elite, mid-range, and value hurlers for 2018.</p>
<p id="28fXgk">Basically, we have you covered, fam. Now let’s dive into the Top 75 for starting pitching. After 75 I lost interest, because really, once you get to <span>Rick Porcello</span>, it’s time to hang it up, eh?</p>
<p id="yJzHq6">As always, feel free to haggle away in the comments. Ranking this many players is an undertaking, one I do not enjoy. For my part, once I’m out of the Top 24 or so, I start taking my shots. Hence, <span>Trevor Bauer</span> at No. 25. I also like Cueto to have a resurgent season. And I like “The Shark” for solid ratios and all those strikeouts.</p>
<p id="TPMp03">Who do you like? Who do you not like? Who would you like to hear about this week? Put us to work! Enjoy!</p>
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https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/13/17112500/2018-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-75-starting-pitchersHeath Capps2018-03-13T08:00:04-04:002018-03-13T08:00:04-04:00Starting Pitchers: The elite, the middle and the bargain
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<img alt="Divisional Round - Chicago Cubs v Washington Nationals - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/oiGVLcJ152UBaP3hn2kH9C2viZE=/0x0:4122x2748/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59002741/858467688.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Three starting pitcher targets for three fantasy tiers.</p> <p id="g2rty2">I miss the days when I could wait until the sixth or seventh round for my first pitcher and feel safe knowing I was getting ace-like numbers. Thanks to a boon in offense, elite pitchers are at their highest premium yet and if you want to stay afloat, you shouldn’t be waiting longer than the fifth round for your first pitcher.</p>
<p id="CwZOdQ">For your SP1, you want a workhorse-like guy who has a baseline of a 3.50 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in 180+ innings who can strike out a batter per inning. If you get one of the four aces (Sale, Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer), you can probably wait until you reach the Nola, Quintana tier to dip back in. Just don’t get too complacent. Pitchers who were once considered waiver fodder are now rounding out the ends of a rotation and you don’t want too many of those. </p>
<h2 id="31UT0x"><strong>The Elite</strong></h2>
<h3 id="TunrNP">
<span><strong>Stephen Strasburg</strong></span><strong> (NFBC ADP:26)</strong>
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<img alt="Divisional Round - Washington Nationals v Chicago Cubs - Game Four" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Az9rMC07CeiZXD_UXAuXAb08iNU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10411519/860311182.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="HP7l1b">I don’t think we’ve seen <span>Strasburg</span> turn in an elite season yet and that’s a hell of a thing to say when you own a career 3.07 ERA, a 10.5 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9 in 1099.2 innings. Last year was the closest he got after turning in 175 innings (most since 2014) with a 2.52 ERA. In a season where home runs were exploding, he posted a career-best 0.67 HR/9. Thanks to an increased usage of a devastating changeup and curveball (each top five in the game in Fangraphs pitch value), he notched a career high SwStr% (12.9%) and got batters to chase (and miss) more out of the zone. He is getting better, everyone. Of course the concern has always been health. He failed to log 200 innings last year because of a right elbow nerve impingement that kept him on ice for nearly three weeks. But given the drastic reduction of pitchers who can go 200+ innings, settling for 175 innings is perfectly reasonable in today’s landscape. If he does get to that benchmark though, know that a 200-inning Strasburg is a Cy Young Strasburg. </p>
<h2 id="jEkPFQ">The Middle</h2>
<h3 id="tlDJm6">
<span>Zack Godley</span> (NFBC: 125)</h3>
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v Minnesota Twins" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-9Todx206kQMtTyjUDbTtZReKJ8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10411619/835330744.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="e6MFub">I know, it’s hard to believe in pitching breakouts, but I promise Godley’s is for real. Here’s what you should know. Strikeout pitchers are good. Godley was one of just 20 pitchers with a 25 K% or better. Groundballs are also good. If you can induce them, it limits the balls in the air, the ones that do the most damage. He was one of 16 to induce greater than a 50 GB%. But if you can get the strikeouts <strong>and</strong> the ground balls, that’s nearing ace level. Only three pitchers besides Godley (<span>Jimmy Nelson</span>, <span>Luis Severino</span>, <span>Carlos Martinez</span>) reached both those benchmarks. We’re still a little unsure how the humidor will affect pitchers, but we can at least surmise there will be a slight improvement. Given his limited major league experience, projection systems are pessimistic on Godley. I think he’s going to turn in a 3.60/1.20 season with 175 strikeouts. Buy now before his price continues creeping up. </p>
<h2 id="Yzz2tz"><strong>The Bargain</strong></h2>
<h3 id="3TS6lZ">
<span><strong>Kevin Gausman</strong></span><strong> (NFBC ADP:200)</strong>
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<img alt="Baltimore Orioles v Toronto Blue Jays" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gQ5PWdPOdnzyBDkT2icGyp8tamg=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10411665/846640696.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="SCiIHg">Are you ready to get suckered back in? I think I am. After a catastrophic first half, Gausman turned it around and finished his final 14 starts with a 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP with a 9.4 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9. We all know what went right: he threw his damn good splitter. As the year wore on, his splitter usage increased, he got more strikeouts on the pitch and ultimately better results. Why doesn’t he just use it from the get go? Your guess is as good as any. Could it take him two months to get a feel for the pitch? Maybe? The year he begins and ends the season with a 20%+ usage of the pitch each month is the year we get 180 innings of a sub-3.70 ERA with strong strikeouts at a bargain price.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/13/17111712/starting-pitchers-the-elite-the-middle-and-the-bargainEddy Almaguer2018-03-12T08:32:29-04:002018-03-12T08:32:29-04:00State of the Position: Starting Pitcher
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<img alt="MLB: NLDS-Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zmT9PKu-fQF_cFWpPKDns4OtLmY=/0x0:2402x1601/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58994125/usa_today_10337738.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A look at how fantasy baseball GMs should attack the pitching position.</p> <p id="JL79nm">Positional weeks have been a rousing success here at Fake Teams, and this venture into starting pitching means only one thing...</p>
<p id="Ei6oOj">It’s nearly Opening Day!</p>
<p id="WXTOyT">That’s right, soon enough I’ll be back to making mediocre MLB DFS lineups. Until then, let’s holler at some hurlers.</p>
<h3 id="L0j3er">The Elite Four: Clayton Kershaw, <span>Max Scherzer</span>, <span>Chris Sale</span>, <span>Corey Kluber</span>
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<p id="wj1yvQ">Yours truly drank the “Mad Max” kool-aid and selected <span>Scherzer</span> at 1.09 in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (three picks ahead of Kershaw). <span>Sale</span> and <span>Kluber</span> followed close behind, as all four are generally ranked/drafted within the top 15 of most drafts. If you want one of these four aces, you’ll have to pay up. On a per-game basis it’s probably silly to rank anyone ahead of Kershaw, but the recurring back issues do mean that it’s conceivable to consider another elite starter in his stead.</p>
<h3 id="G5h2Ld">Round 3 Pitchers, galore!</h3>
<p id="Yn8m3K">Apparently Round 2 is dedicated to the hitters, as a cluster of six second-tier aces are going in the third round on average: <span>Stephen Strasburg</span>, <span>Madison Bumgarner</span>, <span>Noah Syndergaard</span>, <span>Luis Severino</span>, <span>Jacob deGrom</span>, and <span>Carlos Carrasco</span> have ADPs between 26 and 36. For my part, I’d take whichever guy fell the farthest, honestly.</p>
<h3 id="yQqtPu">The Underrated: <span>Aaron Nola</span>
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<p id="A0ZLhA">With an ADP of 64.9, <span>Nola</span> is being drafted as the 17th starter according to Fangraphs. For me, he represents a cutoff point for my first ace. After the Round 3 barrage, there are seven hurlers being selected between pick 41 and pick 64 that I would tolerate as my SP1—<span>Justin Verlander</span>, <span>Zack Greinke</span>, <span>Robbie Ray</span>, Yu Darvish, <span>Carlos Martinez</span>, <span>Chris Archer</span>, and Nola. Within that grouping I like Ray the least, as last year’s 10.7% walk rate and 40.4% hard contact rate concern me. I don’t want to bank on a humidor to help my SP1 return value...</p>
<h3 id="eX76LC">The Hyped One: Shohei Ohtani</h3>
<p id="ErWB2v">How many innings will the hyped one pitch? In Japan last year, he mustered 25 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings. He has never thrown more than 160 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3 </sub>innings. With an ADP of 73.7, Ohtani is being selected in the vicinity of Jose Quintana (71.9), <span>James Paxton</span> (76.6), and <span>Dallas Keuchel</span> (77.9). You might be inclined to quickly dismiss him, but in this age of the 10-day DL and with far fewer starters pitching 200 innings, Ohtani is a worthy selection if you believe in his ability to strikeout the opposition (I do). I mean, with <span>Keuchel</span> you don’t even have an elite K-rate (career 19.5%). You can’t bank on volume due to Keuchel’s injury history, either.</p>
<p id="4bUGxG">This lack of volume among starters right now has me inclined to side with the strikeout upside in every scenario. Give me Ohtani over Keuchel. In this grouping, though, Quintana is the top dog due to his dependability—prior to last season’s 188.2 innings, 200 innings was Quintana’s floor for four years running. I’ll take that alongside a strikeout rate that surged to 26.2% in 2017. In the cluster I’d rank them: Quintana, <span>Paxton</span>, Ohtani, Keuchel.</p>
<h3 id="nyKcDT">The Perfect SP3: <span>Jeff Samardzija</span>
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<p id="npGmcS">“The Shark” got a mention on the latest <a href="https://twitter.com/doubleswitchpod">@doubleswitchpod</a>, primarily for his ability to deliver volume and to strike out hitters. The cushy home park helps his cause as well. Enjoy the floor he gives you at his ADP of 135.5. Steamer projects 202 innings and 184 strikeouts to go alongside a 1.19 WHIP. The 3.81 ERA projection seems fair, as that was Samardzija’s mark in 2016 when he had a little better luck with not giving up home runs. He is especially appealing in daily formats where you can avoid the occasional Coors start.</p>
<h3 id="K0YDsD">The Arbitrage: <span>Jameson Taillon</span>
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<p id="qscMV0">Player A Steamer Projection: 169.0 IP, 10 W, 4.56 ERA, 160 SO, 1.34 WHIP</p>
<p id="HDFkDN">Player B Steamer Projection: 189.0 IP, 11 W, 3.96 ERA, 176 SO, 1.29 WHIP</p>
<p id="wr7ggj">Player A is <span>Jose Berrios</span> with an ADP of 106.7. Player B is (you guessed it) Taillon with an ADP of 191.4.</p>
<p id="DxitXG">Any questions?</p>
<h3 id="yQbtS6">What’s next?</h3>
<p id="41aNdo">Later this week, our writers will bring you their values, sleepers, rankings, and more. Stay tuned!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/12/17108166/state-of-the-position-starting-pitcherHeath Capps