Fake Teams - Third Base WeekThe Key Source For Incisive Fantasy Sports Analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50153/fake-fav.png2018-03-14T10:52:55-04:00http://www.faketeams.com/rss/stream/168170312018-03-14T10:52:55-04:002018-03-14T10:52:55-04:00Daily Fantasy Strategy: Third Base
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Od5LDSN0TYOTXy6AmAfKjmQPRfI=/1x0:2527x1684/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59024479/usa_today_10186775.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Heath explores the hot corner for MLB DFS purposes.</p> <p id="B8r5Q3">Already in the books are:</p>
<p id="qj652e"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/3/16916140/daily-fantasy-strategy-catchers">Catcher</a></p>
<p id="UUi0Kx"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/11/16997688/daily-fantasy-strategy-first-base">First Base</a></p>
<p id="5qCxH3"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/24/17025578/daily-fantasy-strategy-second-base">Second Base</a></p>
<p id="vArOds"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/4/17047986/daily-fantasy-strategy-shortstop">Shortstop</a></p>
<p id="1BqUxA">And now, welcome to the second-most powerful position in MLB DFS. The most powerful distinction goes to <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/11/16997688/daily-fantasy-strategy-first-base">first basemen</a>. Still, we have some things to discuss. Let’s do this.</p>
<h3 id="0BMcw3">Second Place is the First Loser</h3>
<p id="3ZSIlB">Tell me you don’t remember those shirts from the 90s. I know you do. Anyway, check out isolated power totals from the three most powerful positions in baseball:</p>
<p id="GLLF2G">MLB first basemen ISO over the last three years: .185, .192, .211.</p>
<p id="1zTuim">MLB third basemen ISO over the last three years: .160, .178, .182.</p>
<p id="4ZupKH">MLB outfielder ISO over the last three years: .158, .165, .176.</p>
<p id="SYOd1G">First basemen have been first in all three years, while third basemen have been second all three years. It isn’t a fair fight to include outfield, since there are so many defense-first or speed-first guys. Still, my reasons for doing this are to get a large picture in my head of what each position offers. For instance, third basemen offer a lot of power, generally more than outfielders—just not as much as first basemen.</p>
<h3 id="gbxVxF">Batting Average and the “Power Three”</h3>
<p id="aqxZNn">First Basemen BA, last three years: .259, .255, .261</p>
<p id="i2OZIX">Third Basemen BA, last three years: .260, .264, .256</p>
<p id="ViqhhH">Outfielder BA, last three years: .260, .257, .260</p>
<p id="rXkKwv">Among the three most powerful positions, third basemen compare just fine. I said it in the first basemen DFS overview, but BA looks like a push among these three positions. And third basemen actually had the largest spike over one year’s time, with the .264 mark in 2016.</p>
<h3 id="4W6jMj">Third Basemen Steal?</h3>
<p id="pzyJOU">Those at the hot corner stole 245 bags last year, compared to 175 for first basemen. Makes sense, as a third baseman would ideally offer more range and quicks than a first baseman.</p>
<p id="7Ctytv">Second basemen stole 485 and shortstops stole 424...making middle infield the place you go for speed (compared to the corners at least).</p>
<p id="eq7LWH"><span>Eduardo Nunez</span> (24) topped all third basemen in steals by a wide margin, and he did so with a shiny .313/.341/.460 slash on only 491 PA. He is an underrated way to begin the year strong in the steals department with <span>Dustin Pedroia</span> on the shelf for Boston.</p>
<p id="hrthJd"><span>Jose Ramirez</span> is the premier do-it-all guy to pay up for, at least based on last year’s production. 29 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a .318/.374/.583 slash line will pay the bills. All of that goodness came with a solid walk rate (8.1%) and a tidy strikeout rate (10.7%). Only <span>Justin Turner</span> had a better strikeout rate (10.3%) last year—and his came with a strong 10.9% walk rate, too. But he lacks the all-around statistics that <span>Ramirez</span> offers.</p>
<p id="uGcLk9">Aside from <span>Ramirez</span>, <span>Alex Bregman</span> and is the other premier power/speed threat with third base eligibility. <span>Travis Shaw</span> (10), <span>Kris Bryant</span> (7), <span>Anthony Rendon</span> (7), and <span>Joey Gallo</span> (7) are all power guys who offer some sneaky speed—but if you roster them you aren’t chasing steals. It’s good to remember that hitters accumulate their statistics over 162 games—so chasing single-digit steals is folly.</p>
<h3 id="ay92Mp">The Splits</h3>
<p id="KfXecC">Here is the coveted righty vs. lefty split from last year, with players who logged below 80 PA removed (there weren’t any notable omissions):</p>
<div id="GlJwyZ"><div data-anthem-component="table:958186"></div></div>
<p id="P8RHvA">I’ve been doing a Top 10 or so for each week, but apparently third basemen slay left-handed pitching. Only the last two guys were below the average ISO of .182 that third basemen set in 2017, but Top 25 is cooler than Top 23, so here we are.</p>
<p id="b2S7gB">Outside of the obvious (Arenado and Donaldson, mainly) there are a few things that stick out.</p>
<p id="DW1G51"><span>Anthony Rendon</span> and Justin Turner can rake, man. Those power numbers, healthy walk rates, low strikeout rates...sheesh! I can’t imagine many scenarios where these two begin the year with anything close to the type of ownership that Arenado or Donaldson will command. But when there’s a southpaw on the mound, they definitely should be considered...</p>
<p id="5HAGqJ">Against lefties, Frazier, Valaika, and Sano offer you cheap power but a lot of downside with those large strikeout rates. Joey Gallo, too. Mercy, a 39.8% K-rate. Tread lightly!</p>
<p id="9adsyZ">How about <span>Jedd Gyorko</span> comparing very favorably to everyone’s darling, <span>Nicholas Castellanos</span>? At least against southpaws. Gyorko is ticketed to man the hot corner for the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a> this year, and looks like a sneaky source of production against lefties if he gets a lineup boost. <a href="https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-st-louis-cardinals">He’s slated to bat seventh right now</a>.</p>
<p id="R4eig1"><span>Travis Shaw</span>, <span>Kyle Seager</span>, and <span>Mike Moustakas</span> are of significant interest to me, as they are left-handed hitters who can hit left-handed pitching. This is a split I hope to take advantage of in 2018, as most DFSers will gravitate towards the righty vs. lefty split. Joey Gallo is a lefty, too, but that strikeout rate is nuts, man.</p>
<div id="G4y3HW"><div data-anthem-component="table:958222"></div></div>
<p id="Y7W4UK">Okay, now I’m just getting greedy with a Top 30. But I really like including <span>Maikel Franco</span>, who I am not ready to give up on. Any young player with that sort of a batting eye (low K-rate) is someone I’m not casting aside quickly. I drafted him at pick 232 as my corner infield bat in a recent industry mock. That’s a juncture where you are taking players who are uninspiring (Porcello went in that round) or have playing time concerns (<span>Willie Calhoun</span>). Maikel has a pathway to PT and should hit fifth or sixth in a promising <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> lineup. I’m intrigued, for season-long and DFS purposes.</p>
<p id="tfdua1">So, Gallo is nothing if not consistent, eh? If you roster him, just know he comes with considerable downside with his strikeout rate. I am more interested in him for season-long purposes where I can make up for his sinkhole of a batting average by drafting some high-average guys earlier. And where I will actually get the benefit of the steals he will chip in.</p>
<p id="ix6GzO"><span>Jake Lamb</span> is going to be someone DFSers are split on to begin the season, though the industry consensus is to be “down” on him due to the advent of the humidor. For my part, I am going to be more intrigued by Arizona starting pitchers to begin the season—especially in the spring before things start to heat up in the summer. I’ll take a look at Lamb if he gets a park boost on the road against a right-handed pitcher.</p>
<p id="maXf9n">Two days ago when I checked, <span>Ryan Schimpf</span> had 16 strikeouts in 22 AB this spring. The new addition to Atlanta is basically a guarantee to walk, strike out, or hit a home run in every at-bat. I can’t see him being a viable option in MLB DFS this year. If he does, something has gone terribly wrong in Atlanta.</p>
<p id="4cThCo">If you were wondering about half of Willie Calhoun’s replacement in Texas, <span>Drew Robinson</span> is likely to bat ninth in the order with that atrocious 35.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. <span>Robinson</span> is a lefty, so that makes this his preferred split, too. Can we not just let Calhoun DH?!?</p>
<p id="xrXUQc">Mike Moustakas leaps out at me again—that walk rate is below average, but the 15.9% strikeout rate is solid for a guy with his power potential. I think “Moose” was underpaid this year after only obtaining a one-year deal with $6.5 million guaranteed. I mean, the dude cranked 38 home runs in 2018. I’ll be buying into his power against right-handers and left-handers in 2018.</p>
<p id="aHuAH1">There are a lot of ideas to glean from a list this long, but I’ll leave you with a final thought about Derek Dietrich. Dietrich is slated to hit leadoff for the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a> this year, likely ahead of <span>J.T. Realmuto</span> and Justin Bour. Starlin Castro is there, too. Perhaps Lewis Brinson works his way into the top of the order at some point, but when we begin the year Dietrich looks like a great DFS value if he’s hitting leadoff and the Marlins are facing a right-handed pitcher. Dietrich has a career .254/.344/.438 slash against right-handers. Against southpaws that line plummets to .235/.306/.354 with a poor 3.8% walk rate—so you and the Marlins will need to find an alternative if it’s a lefty on the mound.</p>
<p id="pBhFWH">That’s about it for me on the hot corner. Next up, outfield. Let me know if you had any thoughts or questions. You can comment below, find me on Twitter at <a href="https://twitter.com/HeathCapps">@HeathCapps</a>, or shoot me an email at heathcapps19@gmail.com. Peace!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/14/17076158/daily-fantasy-strategy-third-baseHeath Capps2018-03-02T16:39:48-05:002018-03-02T16:39:48-05:00Staff Post: Third Basemen to Avoid in 2018
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Jchl9zrSVzIpJYOmLnXxSuqTzzU=/0x0:3540x2360/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58884327/usa_today_10112585.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Fake Teams staff tell you who to avoid at third base in 2018, including Alex Bregman, Miguel Sano, Jake Lamb, and Evan Longoria.</p> <p id="2GKrqa">Earlier today we discussed our <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/2/17068900/staff-post-third-basemen-to-target-in-2018">third basemen to target</a>. Now it’s time for the underbelly, the guys we think you can avoid for one reason or another.</p>
<p id="eqKFrj">One caveat: Just because someone is being avoided doesn’t make them a bad player. ADP has to be considered as well. Let’s hop to it.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="MLB: World Series-Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mo2Ujc6SGrr2dOk4RzMHhu8C55c=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10332259/usa_today_10372204.jpg">
<cite>Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="FxMz75"><span>Alex Bregman</span>, <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a> (Brian Creagh)</p>
<p id="1OOXa4">ADP: 32.0</p>
<p id="ikuUZs">I really like <span>Alex Bregman</span>, but he seems mispriced. He does a little bit of everything, but he’s lacking the 30 HR or the 20 SB upside or the .300 AVG upside to go that early. Further development is to be expected and he had a monster second half of last season, but you are paying for his improvement and not getting any value if it occurs. Rendon 20 picks later is going to offer a similar stat line with just a few less stolen bases.</p>
<p id="Qojc7j"></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="MLB: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bvhk-uLtqXZQkP_EUeKeJLqFkIw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10332403/usa_today_10231733.jpg">
<cite>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="DLeETV"><span>Miguel Sano</span>, <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a> (Heath Capps)</p>
<p id="q1ohOY">ADP: 108.0</p>
<p id="X39FKN">Off-the-field concerns are something I avoid. I prefer to draft a third baseman who didn’t just meet with MLB investigators on Tuesday about an alleged assault. There are enough risks to take in fantasy sports, so why on earth would I want to add off-the-field risks as well? Steamer projects only 472 PA for Sano in 2018, too, so don’t call me crazy. Last year’s surgery to repair a stress reaction in Sano’s leg probably adds to the low PA projection as well. In summation: suspension risk and injury risk are too much for me to care deeply about a guy with a mammoth 35.8% career strikeout rate.</p>
<p id="ebnH5L"></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="MLB: All Star Game-Batting Practice" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2rqIAJ_lMiDJqjqNfR1unj1E6L0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10332333/usa_today_10154136.jpg">
<cite>Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="EXyvA8"><span>Jake Lamb</span>, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> (Punk is Dead)</p>
<p id="BAUokC">ADP: 121.5</p>
<p id="UmhrPD">Jake Lamb is an obvious avoid for me in 2018. Even pre-humidor there are a ton of red flags. Lamb hit just .144 against lefties in 2017 and just .204 overall in the second half. He’s well on his way to being a platoon player and although that could help his overall ratios, the counting stats will suffer. Factoring in the humidor, which has the potential to cut his power numbers (his only fantasy value) in half, you get a .250 hitter with 20 homers. Certainly not worth his current ADP of 113 overall.</p>
<p id="SP0l8a"></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/M02VukKeOU7vtKHpK39bXLpL3fI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10332697/usa_today_10665980.jpg">
<cite>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="i4CISy"><span>Evan Longoria</span>, <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> (Eddy Almaguer)</p>
<p id="3PXapP">ADP: 199.8</p>
<p id="BJuoNP">Some are still vouching for Evan Longoria even after his move to SF but I can’t get on board. At pick 200 he’s not going to break your bank, but he’s more of a “shoot, I forgot to draft a third baseman” emergency pick. His best asset is his health, having logged at least 670 PA since 2013. But what is he providing you? He hasn’t hit above .275 since 2012, hasn’t had an OBP north of .330 since 2013, and has hit more than 22 home runs just once since 2014. Do we really think he’s going to experience a career renaissance in AT&T park, the place that’s finished 30th, 27th, and 28th the last three seasons in home run factor? If you are without a third baseman this late, punt it and shoot for <span>Matt Chapman</span> as a last-round add.</p>
<p id="mwYdcC">Be sure to follow along with <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/1/17069470/fantasy-baseball-expert-draft-results-rankings-tgfbi">The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational</a> as Eddy, Heath, and Brian represent Fake Teams in an epic field of fantasy baseball experts.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/2/17069892/staff-post-third-basemen-to-avoid-in-2018Heath Capps2018-03-02T08:47:23-05:002018-03-02T08:47:23-05:00Staff Post: Third Basemen to Target in 2018
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9Xv0ygmSRACXjj7XOa49O2aQAfs=/0x0:5442x3628/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58876681/usa_today_10234458.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Fake Teams Staff tell you which third basemen to target in 2018, including Nicholas Castellanos, Joey Gallo, Adrian Beltre, and Matt Chapman.</p> <p id="5mEhyR">Third base week is drawing to a close, and so far you can check out:</p>
<p id="Lda6My"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/26/17051198/state-of-the-position-third-base">The State of the Position</a></p>
<p id="6CZkEV"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/27/17055858/2018-fantasy-baseball-rankings-third-base-part-2">Top 30 Rankings</a></p>
<p id="Ux8ufA"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/27/17055812/third-basemen-elite-middle-bargain-sleeper-fantasy">Eddy’s Three Tiers</a></p>
<p id="6LXlxs"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/28/17053666/fantasy-baseball-sleepers-targets-third-base-travis-shaw-rafael-devers-matt-chapman-jp-crawford">Punk’s Targets</a></p>
<p id="rT69Wn"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/28/17052304/tiered-third-base-rankings-analysis-expert-fantasy-baseball">Brian’s Tiered Rankings Analysis</a></p>
<p id="5SUbNF"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/1/17056992/career-year-analysis-third-base">Brian’s Career Year Analysis</a></p>
<p id="ysj9cO"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/1/17056328/2018-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-third-base-breakouts-canidates-undervalued-targets-3b">Joe’s Sleepers</a></p>
<p id="O2fsc2">All of that should get you off to a good start. If you don’t have the time to read everything, what follows are our individual targets. These are picks that we have each made after a week’s worth of focus on the hot corner. Enjoy, and feel free to comment or ask questions as you have them. Happy Friday, and happy <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/1/17069470/fantasy-baseball-expert-draft-results-rankings-tgfbi">Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational</a> drafting to Brian, Eddy, and Heath!</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="MLB: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IrFtDIa98V2vIXV8USQIpkcDKzU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10328599/usa_today_9992809.jpg">
<cite>Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="oP374l">Nick Castellanos, <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a> (Heath Capps)</p>
<p id="00AqFh">ADP: 100.8</p>
<p id="IU17If">I am drinking the kool-aid with Castellanos this year. His home run total has increased every year since 2014, culminating in 26 home runs and 101 RBIs last year. He made hard contact 43.4% of the time in 2017 and has always been an epic line drive hitter. Here are his line drive rates over the last four seasons: 28.5%, 23.3%, 25.6%, and 24.5%. He isn’t an extreme fly ball hitter (career 39.2%) but with those healthy line drive rates and an RBI-producing spot in the Tigers lineup, Castellanos offers back-end starter production at third base (with upside for more).</p>
<p id="COE5v9"></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="MLB: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_ATJHFGQGLp1N8M-Oul0fWtukys=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10328607/usa_today_10266930.jpg">
<cite>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="UjUskZ"><span>Joey Gallo</span>, <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a> (Brian Creagh)</p>
<p id="CQz1N2">ADP: 113.8</p>
<p id="b8zNXT">40-homer upside in the 10th round? Yes, please. Gallo’s obvious flaw for fantasy is his batting average, but there are ways to minimize its impact by drafting high average players in earlier rounds, and actively managing the third base position to avoid difficult matchups. Gallo is only 24 years old, so there is still opportunity for improvement. I am more than willing to gamble on Gallo and his power in 2018.</p>
<p id="FrTC9C"></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="MLB: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Do2eR88dSaUqjE2-6vzDav2gp5U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10328615/usa_today_10326876.jpg">
<cite>Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="8hoytv"><span>Adrian Beltre</span>, Rangers (Punk is Dead)</p>
<p id="ydEg2E">ADP: 157.9</p>
<p id="M6VjSI">I could talk about <span>Travis Shaw</span> all day but I’ll offer up a different player here. Adrian Beltre is an absolute STEAL at his current ADP of 157! Beltre missed a lot of games last year, but he still hit .312 with a .915 OPS. And his 17 homers and 71 RBIs project out to 29-122. He did that with one good leg! Beltre is still a .300 hitter with 30 HR+100 RBI potential. He’s basically what everyone is hoping <span>Justin Turner</span> will be, except Beltre has done it before. Turner is being drafted 5-6 rounds earlier.</p>
<p id="FKDSgK">Adrian Beltre, Rangers (Eddy Almaguer)</p>
<p id="MsxoQx">ADP: 157.9</p>
<p id="5TbnW6">Let’s play the baseball edition of Who’s Line Is It Anyways. According to Steamer 2018 projections, Player A is at 77/22/79 with .292/.373/.490. Player B: 69/20/77 .288/.352/.473. Pretty similar, right? The big difference is A is at 83rd overall in NFBC ADP while B is at 153rd. That’s Justin Turner and Adrian Beltre, respectively. Yeah, Beltre turns 39 in early April. But I’m done waiting for the other shoe to drop. He’s been incredibly consistent and even set a career-high walk rate last year (10.0 BB%). Don’t be an ageist. Take Beltre and look like a genius when he turns in a strong season.</p>
<p id="cZQDqA"></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="MLB: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nQ3xru1p3hjIXQy-nlT5Y0v-fOc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10328621/usa_today_10315345.jpg">
<cite>Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="DGejqz"><span>Matt Chapman</span>, <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Athletics</a> (Eddy Almaguer)</p>
<p id="ktTlt0">ADP: 284.1</p>
<p id="AZJnEh">If you’ll notice, Punk’s blurb regarding Beltre was the ole’ bait-and-switch. We all thought he was targeting <span>Travis Shaw</span>, so Eddy didn’t hesitate to target Beltre as well. But since we generally attempt to target different players, Eddy’s secondary choice is Chapman. Here is part of what Eddy said about Chapman in his <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/27/17055812/third-basemen-elite-middle-bargain-sleeper-fantasy">three-tier piece</a> from Wednesday:</p>
<p id="JaA61O"><em>“One thing to know about Matt Chapman is that he’s a defensive wiz at third base. We’re talking “Probably-the-best-3B-in-the-AL” kind of good. This is going to ensure he gets 150 games this year barring injury. Because of this, Chapman is going to get a chance to hit a ton of bombs. In 133 games last year he hit 30 home runs. In 2015 at High-A he hit 23 in 80 games. In 2016 in Double-A and Triple-A he hit 36 in 135 games. The interesting thing with Chapman is he’s always been a pull-power type of guy, but in his 84-game stint in the majors he only pulled it 34 percent of the time and still got to his power. If he maintains an all fields approach and keeps his power, he could avoid becoming a shift-prone player.”</em></p>
<p id="kNc71s">And that’s all (we) wrote for today. Make sure to follow along on Twitter with <a href="https://twitter.com/EddyAlmaguer">@EddyAlmaguer</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/HeathCapps">@HeathCapps</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/BrianCreagh">@BrianCreagh</a> as they seek to crush dreams in the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/2/17068900/staff-post-third-basemen-to-target-in-2018Heath CappsGarrett AtkinsEddy AlmaguerBrian Creagh2018-03-01T10:00:02-05:002018-03-01T10:00:02-05:002018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Third Base
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Cincinnati Reds-Workouts" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NeBbw4yZkRFIyoevjs4DjIsMGxI=/0x14:2893x1943/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58841957/usa_today_10634338.1519763319.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nick Senzel may have played a majority of his games at third base last season, but his way to the majors may include a move to shortstop. </p> <p id="hk7155">If you have missed out this week, get ready for fantasy baseball by checking out <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/26/17052990/third-base-week">all of our third base content</a> so far. You can find traditional rankings, tiered rankings, values, and more! Now let’s check out some sleepers...</p>
<h3 id="NHbtEU">
<span><strong>Maikel Franco</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 267.8)</strong>
</h3>
<p id="16G6Tb">Last season Franco went from one of the top sleeper picks to one of the biggest disappointments. With a .230/.281/.409 slash line, it is no wonder Franco is being taken outside the top 250, but that slash line also came with a .234 BABIP. With a low line drive rate, Franco should be someone who posts a low BABIP. But his BABIP should be around .280, not .234. </p>
<p id="VL1OdG">With Franco's low strikeout rate and power, he is someone who has the potential to post a .265/.315/.470 while also putting up 25 home runs. With those numbers and an improved lineup around him, we could see Franco become a fantasy star in 2018.</p>
<h3 id="mj5Vhh">
<span><strong>Matt Chapman</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/"><strong>Oakland Athletics</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 303.8)</strong>
</h3>
<p id="G5Y9Eo">It is a tragedy that Chapman is being taken outside the top 300. Chapman has elite power at the age of 24 but doesn't have the swing and miss stuff like many other hitters in his class. With an 11.5 swinging strike rate, he has the potential to have a strikeout rate below 30%, which could lead to a batting average above the .240 mark. </p>
<p id="ZuJHCB">With Chapman's extreme fly ball rates and power potential, he already has the potential to hit 40 home runs in 2018. I don't have any problem taking Chapman with my last pick of the draft, and you shouldn't either. </p>
<h3 id="eGtzsn">
<strong>Nick Senzel, </strong><a href="https://www.redreporter.com/"><strong>Cincinnati Reds</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 331.0)</strong>
</h3>
<p id="RN0k05">It seems like the Reds are trying to find the fastest way to get Senzel up to the major leagues, and that path may see him play more shortstop than third base. The Reds may not be as high on <span>Jose Peraza</span> as they are on <span>Scooter Gennett</span> and <span>Eugenio Suarez</span>, which has led to Senzel seeing some time at short this spring. Although Senzel may not break camp with the club, we could see him up in the big leagues as soon as late April. </p>
<p id="JmXmxY">Senzel currently profiles as a high batting average player with some speed and power upside. ZIPS projects him to have a .271/.332/.450 slash line with 15 home runs and 13 stolen bases. If Senzel can be a 15/15 player with a .270 batting average, that should make him a top 200 fantasy option in most leagues.</p>
<h3 id="gHi7qP">
<span><strong>Rio Ruiz</strong></span><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/"><strong>Atlanta Braves</strong></a><strong> (ADP: 836.5)</strong>
</h3>
<p id="IWUed6"><span>Johan Camargo</span> is currently scheduled to be the Braves starting third baseman, but Ruiz does have some breakout potential in 2018. I wasn't a big fan of Ruiz until I saw the 0.0% infield fly ball rate he posted in his 173 major league plate appearances. With this ability to diminish pop-ups paired with his high line drive rate and ability to make hard contact, Ruiz could be someone who hits for a decent batting average. He can do so even if his 23.7% strikeout rate carries over from 2017. </p>
<p id="hlQXCA">Ruiz will be an interesting player to watch as the season progresses. If he does end up taking the starting third base job away from <span>Camargo</span> and catches fire, don't be afraid to click that add button by his name.</p>
<div id="oyIXFy"><div data-anthem-component="poll:913114"></div></div>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/1/17056328/2018-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-third-base-breakouts-canidates-undervalued-targets-3bJoe Gentile2018-03-01T08:30:02-05:002018-03-01T08:30:02-05:00Career Year Analysis - Third Base
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: NLDS-Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/U2VfmAaCcJlDK5DiwwjW6yekp7o=/0x0:4216x2811/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58833361/usa_today_10342129.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A look at who is coming off a career year and how it impacts their draft stock.</p> <p id="2qZL7s">Building on what I put together <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/22/17033992/career-year-analysis-shortstops-fantasy-baseball-experts">last week for shortstops</a>, let’s take a look at third basemen coming off of career-best and career-worst seasons in 2017.</p>
<p id="duV5fW">Before reviewing the entire table, a few notes about each field:</p>
<ul>
<li id="jm7H0Q">Age is as of the 2017 season</li>
<li id="YPbsE9">Only seasons with greater than 400 plate appearances are considered. This means career averages are a little different from what you will find on baseball-reference or FanGraphs.</li>
<li id="UphIK8">Each of the “Above Career Average” field is measured in the same units as the metric in question. So <span><strong>Freddie Freeman</strong></span><strong> </strong>being 4.43 HR above career average means he hit 4.43 more home runs then his career average in 2017.</li>
<li id="Md73Z2">The last column “Career Year Index” is a combination of all five categories to measure who exceeded their career averages the most across all five statistics. This statistic is normalized for plate appearances, so players who earned more runs, home runs, etc. solely because of more playing time do not score well here. Each stat besides average is taken on a per plate appearance basis.</li>
</ul>
<p id="UoIg3N">Do not fall for the trap of “Player X greatly exceeded his career average, he must regress!” But do consider Player X is worth a deeper dive to see if his improvement is driven by a change in approach/skill set development or if it was fueled by luck/randomness and regression is to be expected.</p>
<div id="BpSYYt"><div data-anthem-component="table:912117"></div></div>
<p id="eOiKyk">The table is meant largely to help others fuel their own research and come to their own conclusions. Please share them in the comments, or reach out via Twitter/email. I have a few of my own thoughts below as well.</p>
<h2 id="wGNUkg">Observations</h2>
<p id="NdvTxp"><span>Evan Longoria</span> is coming off a tough year where the supporting cast wasn’t there in Tampa Bay and his BABIP was the second worst in his career at .282 (career average is .299). I love what San Francisco did this off-season, and the <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> offense is going to be productive. Buy low on Longoria.</p>
<p id="lpXon9">This is the second article I’ve done during third base week which suggests <span>Nolan Arenado</span> may be going a little too high. His spot on this list is driven largely by his career best in batting average (.309) which was fueled by a career best BABIP of .320 (career average .297). Arenado didn’t see any significant change in batted ball profile so I expect his batting average to drop closer to his .290 range in 2018. He’s still an ultra safe pick at the top of drafts, but don’t pencil him in to repeat his numbers from last season.</p>
<p id="VPFlLl">It’s been a crazy little roller coaster ride with <span>Matt Carpenter</span> the last few years, but I’m ready to buy back in. The power is still there and the surrounding offense improved with the addition of Marcell Ozuna. There is an upside of Carpenter flirting with 90 runs and 20 home runs at the small price of a 15th round draft pick. He has started to see a decline in line drive rate (from 30% to 27%) but he’s worth the gamble that 2017 was variance and not a sign of Carpenter’s decline—he is only 32 years old this year.</p>
<p id="qAycM9">The brother of <span>Corey Seager</span> is another great bounceback candidate in 2018. Another guy who saw a wicked BABIP drop without a corresponding change in batted ball profile, <span>Seager</span> hit a career worst .249. He’s only 30 years old this year and I am expecting 26 home runs and a .260ish batting average from <span>Kyle Seager</span>. </p>
<p id="oAifYd">I’m starting to think I’m too low on Anthony Rendon. His career averages are wonky since he was a run-heavy producer when batting 2nd in the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Nationals</a> lineup to start his career, but after moving to the 5th/6th hole has seen his RBI totals increase and his runs decrease. The profile is so solid and should continue that way in 2018, with the exception of a small regression in home runs after his career-high HR/FB rate in 2017.</p>
<p id="JiHzkj">If you have any questions or comments or just want to chat further about your league, please don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/BrianCreagh"><strong>@BrianCreagh</strong></a> or via email bcreagh119@gmail.com.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/1/17056992/career-year-analysis-third-baseBrian Creagh2018-02-28T10:00:01-05:002018-02-28T10:00:01-05:00Tiered Third Base Rankings Analysis
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Chicago Cubs-Workouts" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vQdHelFo0gcG_Xkx8ZOy_NGy9AU=/0x172:3008x2177/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58818875/usa_today_10627492.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Brian Creagh digs deeper into the projections to find the implied tiers in third base rankings.</p> <p id="eB3HpU">Third Base Week rolls on with my favorite article of the week—implied tiers analysis. If you missed this <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/1/31/16953514/fantasy-baseball-catcher-rankings-analysis-expert-tiers"><strong>same article from Catcher Week</strong></a>, I would recommend giving the overview a quick read. The concept remains the same: using a relatively vanilla projection model (Steamer) we discern the implied tiers where production makes a big drop from one player to the next. Furthermore, looking at current ADP values (via FanGraphs) we discover where it may be advantageous to take a third baseman in drafts.</p>
<p id="4RY5oD">For each position, we will only rank as many players as are typically owned in your standard 5x5, 12-man league. For third base this means approximately 27 players, since your 28th and 29th third basemen are likely going undrafted in this format. So without further ado, here are the implied tiers for third base:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UXFW14emyiS4Z_xgz68kBcosSn8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10298093/3b_tiers.png">
</figure>
<p id="pHoTN5">Again, a few explanations - zSUM is the sum of all a player’s z-scores for each of the 5 categories. A zSUM of 1 means that the player is one standard deviation better than the average player at this position. It is not the be-all and end-all definition of a player’s value, because a player’s worth to a team is dependent to the construction of that specific team (i.e. <span><strong>Billy Hamilton</strong></span> doesn’t mean as much to a team that already has <span><strong>Dee Gordon</strong></span>). It is an excellent approximation of a player’s general value compared to the rest of the position and a helpful metric for organizing similar expected output.</p>
<p id="V2xh5c">Tiers are represented by the solid black line and were generated subjectively by looking at both zSUM and current ADP. The double black line beneath <span>Justin Turner</span> represents the average production at the position - players above the line are “above-average” and players below the line are “below-average.” It is my goal to leave every draft with an above-average player at each position, so having this break-even point in mind is extremely helpful.</p>
<p id="frizw7">Next we need to compare this zSUM metric to where each player is currently being drafted. If we can wait a round or two and get the same production as an earlier pick, we are setting ourselves up for success. The graph below plots each player’s zSUM vs. their current ADP with a trend line running through the scatter plot. A simple way of interpreting the chart is: players above the line represent good value, while players below the line represent poor value at their current ADP.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zjwXCGpbjW_QCiE4vRgZ1vqlunc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10297959/3b_matrix.png">
</figure>
<p id="NHwHSW">(click image to zoom)</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="vQCc1G">
<h2 id="ljUs0w">Observations</h2>
<p id="KwyhC1"><span>Manny Machado</span> over <span>Nolan Arenado</span> is an interesting result. Driven by his projected eight stolen bases, Machado nudges past Arenado in the rankings. I still have Arenado ranked higher, but the difference in ADP is worth noting—Machado at the back end of the second round is looking like a great value.</p>
<p id="vB73OK">There is such a steep drop after the top seven third basemen. In the table above, the drop appears to be after <span>Alex Bregman</span>, the sixth ranked third basemen, but I feel <span>Anthony Rendon</span> is undervalued in these projections so the top seven is the big breaking point for me. I need to have one of these top seven hitters in my auctions/drafts.</p>
<p id="w4wtpi"><span>Evan Longoria</span> is looking like great value going outside the top 200 picks. He should hit fourth behind <span>Andrew McCutchen</span> and <span>Buster Posey</span>. 2018 will be Longoria’s age 32 season and he’s been durable for so many years, I would be very comfortable with Longoria in one of my CI spots.</p>
<p id="lx798b"><span>Josh Harrison</span> is also looking like a solid option in the last rounds of the draft. 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases is a really good floor when combined with his leadoff spot in the batting order. Other projection systems like Harrison even more, giving a 15 HR/15 SB floor with a .280 average. At Round 23 of your draft, that is unbeatable value.</p>
<p id="wP4cpe">The model is very down on <span>Travis Shaw</span> this year, projecting a decrease of 20 runs batted in and 14 runs. With Christian Yelich and <span>Lorenzo Cain</span> now batting in front of <span>Shaw</span>, I find myself more optimistic than Steamer.</p>
<p id="pctZKA">It’s also worth pointing out the poor <span>Miguel Sano</span> projection. Steamer only projects 473 plate appearances for Sano this season, which is holding back his counting stats. I’m not sure what will happen with sexual misconduct allegations or how the <span>Logan Morrison</span>/<span>Erick Aybar</span> signings will impact playing time, but it’s hard to be too optimistic on Sano right now. I expect his ADP to start falling.</p>
<p id="bS255G">If you have any questions or comments or just want to chat further about your league, please don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/BrianCreagh"><strong>@BrianCreagh</strong></a> or via email bcreagh119@gmail.com.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/28/17052304/tiered-third-base-rankings-analysis-expert-fantasy-baseballBrian Creagh2018-02-28T08:30:01-05:002018-02-28T08:30:01-05:00Third Basemen to Target in 2018
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9X-DTzjAYPFfbyfGUsGgXdYqmA8=/0x0:3944x2629/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58825009/usa_today_10166277.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Who to target at the hot corner in fantasy baseball.</p> <p id="uoBDMx">Third base is a rather deep position in 2018. It features a good mixture of old names and young players looking to break out. There is still plenty of value to be had at the position. Here are a few players I am targeting on draft day to fill third base:</p>
<h2 id="P04Wo7"><span>Travis Shaw</span></h2>
<h4 id="S2BZV1">Current Rank: 58<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 86</h4>
<p id="6tpCQy"><span>Shaw</span> was the #63 overall player and #5 third baseman in fantasy last season. He improved his production against left-handed pitchers and should remain a regular in the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> lineup. I expect more of the same from Shaw in 2018. Shouldn’t that mean he will finish around the same spot at the end of 2018?</p>
<h2 id="TU3JiF"><span>Rafael Devers</span></h2>
<h4 id="qFC2Dv">Current Rank: 84<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 89</h4>
<p id="e4P9hA">The ECR is pretty spot on with this ranking but I still want all the <span>Devers</span> I can draft. Devers hit .284 with 10 home runs, 30 RBIs and 34 runs in just 58 games for the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> in 2017. That’s a full season pace of 28 home runs, 84 RBIs and 95 runs. Pretty great value in the late 8th round. He’s also a 20-year-old with a much higher ceiling. He could get a few steals as well, as he had 18 steals in the minors in 2016. </p>
<h2 id="r3ngOC"><span>Matt Chapman</span></h2>
<h4 id="qC8B0b">Current Rank: 220<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 281</h4>
<p id="kWYpWu">The batting average is bad (.234 in 2017) but the power is legit. Chapman hit 14 homers over 84 games for the <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Athletics</a>. That’s a pace of 27 home runs. Chapman also has a 36-homer season in the minors in 2016. Chapman has 30+ HR upside with a current ADP of 278. He is a late round flier with similar potential as many other high power/low batting average guys that are going much earlier in drafts.</p>
<p id="zcrZEz">In addition to these players, here are a few other options who are currently ranked outside the Top 300 of the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings:</p>
<p id="3N6H5z"><span>J.P. Crawford</span><br>My Rank: 307 Expert Consensus Rank: 347<br>He’ll be the everyday shortstop for the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> in 2018. Great plate discipline. Solid five-category guy.</p>
<p id="OnmdBe"><span>Matt Davidson</span><br>My Rank: 313 Expert Consensus Rank: 410<br>Very similar to Chapman but strikes out more. 30+ homer upside for cheap.</p>
<p id="VlfbY3"><strong>Nick Senzel</strong><br>My Rank: 359 Expert Consensus Rank: 415<br>Top 10 prospect across all prospect ranking sites. Could put up numbers similar to <span>Alex Bregman</span> in 2017.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/28/17053666/fantasy-baseball-sleepers-targets-third-base-travis-shaw-rafael-devers-matt-chapman-jp-crawfordGarrett Atkins2018-02-27T08:00:04-05:002018-02-27T08:00:04-05:002018 Third Base Rankings (Part 2)
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rqu4xEOnq6E9rH8tiLLY9pPcpZU=/0x0:2077x1385/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58829855/usa_today_10038853.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cumulative third base rankings for fantasy baseball in 2018.</p> <p id="6tojLV">Yesterday we offered up the <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/26/17051198/state-of-the-position-third-base">state of the third base position</a> and the first part of our <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/26/17052532/2018-fantasy-baseball-rankings-third-base-part-1">third base rankings</a>. I discovered a dead heat for the 16th spot in our rankings, as both players had an average ranking of 15.2. As always, you can cast a deciding vote for this duo below!</p>
<p id="yHCmrt">In lieu of posting a Part 2, I am electing to share our Top 30. A couple of guys rethought their positions on a few players. <span>Travis Shaw</span> is once such example, as he bumps up two spots from yesterday to No. 13.</p>
<p id="YsV4Kb">As always, feel free to haggle away with us in the comments or hit us up on Twitter at <a href="https://twitter.com/faketeams">@faketeams</a> with any comments or questions.</p>
<p id="KzdyS1"></p>
<div id="eaGo7l"><div data-anthem-component="table:911658"></div></div>
<div id="ubf57r"><div data-anthem-component="poll:911668"></div></div>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/27/17055858/2018-fantasy-baseball-rankings-third-base-part-2Heath Capps