Fake Teams - Shortstop WeekThe Key Source For Incisive Fantasy Sports Analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50153/fake-fav.png2018-03-04T09:00:01-05:00http://www.faketeams.com/rss/stream/167943092018-03-04T09:00:01-05:002018-03-04T09:00:01-05:00Daily Fantasy Strategy: Shortstop
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mBdyLZHirsq-Az261w2VdSNZIBw=/0x0:4188x2792/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58897485/usa_today_10661751.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Heath explores the shortstop position for MLB DFS purposes.</p> <p id="MoGufX">In the books so far are:</p>
<p id="GANwiE"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/3/16916140/daily-fantasy-strategy-catchers">Catchers</a></p>
<p id="5GpA6a"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/11/16997688/daily-fantasy-strategy-first-base">First Base</a></p>
<p id="8m1pXm"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/24/17025578/daily-fantasy-strategy-second-base">Second Base</a></p>
<p id="jCJtBT">And we have Spring Training box scores to review! Who else is getting excited for meaningful baseball? Before we get there, though, let’s get through these DFS overviews. Shortstop has become an impact position and is not to be ignored.</p>
<h3 id="UrDk4F">Shortstops Slash Like Second Basemen</h3>
<p id="MhhBzn">2B in 2017: .263/.329/.409</p>
<p id="xmp5Zq">SS in 2017: .260/.315/.407</p>
<p id="CO4iBf">Fairly similar, eh? Second basemen had a higher OBP and stole more bases in 2017 (485 to 424). However, there were 18 shortstops who stole 10 or more bases, compared to 15 second basemen. So shortstops were more concentrated with regard to speed.</p>
<h3 id="R1diF5">Young Power!</h3>
<p id="t7ybqB">In the <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/24/17025578/daily-fantasy-strategy-second-base">second base DFS overview</a>, we established that the keystone is the only position in baseball that has not improved its ISO numbers over the last two years. Shortstops made a big jump in 2016 and continued to rise last season. With guys like <span>Carlos Correa</span>, <span>Francisco Lindor</span>, and Corey Seager all on the upswing of their careers, this surge in power should continue. <span>Javier Baez</span>, <span>Didi Gregorius</span>, and <span>Trevor Story</span> are all legitimate threats for 25+ home runs as well.</p>
<p id="NJLX3Y">Lindor’s minuscule 12.9% strikeout rate last year compares favorably to any of the elite guys. <span>Trea Turner</span> (17.9%), Corey Seager (21.4%), and <span>Carlos Correa</span> (19.1%) all trailed Lindor considerably in 2017. Lindor also hit eight more home runs than any other shortstop last year, all while chipping in 15 steals (tied for seventh at his position). If I pay up for a shortstop in 2018, I will be searching for reasons not to roster Lindor.</p>
<h3 id="mqfEGF">The Splits</h3>
<p id="fYDUep"></p>
<div id="zhn0vl"><div data-anthem-component="table:918918"></div></div>
<p id="wlB78g">A pretty interesting table. FYI, the Ahmed/Amed brothers were removed. <span>Nick Ahmed</span> is a speedy, glove-first guy who only had 53 PA against southpaws last season. Factor in limited playing time and the humidor, and there aren’t many reasons to consider Ahmed anyway. <span>Amed Rosario</span> only had 38 PA against southpaws in 2017. Sure, he was 17% above average (117 wRC+) as a hitter, but the small sample size and inability to draw a walk (1.8% walk rate last year) mean we can leave <span>Rosario</span> for our crazy GPP lineups, most likely. He’s also slated to hit ninth, according to <a href="https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-new-york-mets">RosterResource</a>. Again, crazy GPP lineups.</p>
<p id="266mtJ">Story is a known commodity. Yes, he oozes power. He also oozes strikeouts. Thankfully, gone are the days when FanDuel would grant negative points for whiffs.</p>
<p id="BpDBrJ">Two <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a> in the top two? <span>Pat Valaika</span> keeps popping up in my research. Probably because he plays so many positions...but also because he flashed some power in limited duty last season. <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/2018/3/1/17065326/colorado-rockies-bench-pat-valaika-ian-desmond-tony-wolters-tom-murphy">He should be the Rockies’ primary sub</a> in the infield in 2018, and has a chance to log more consistent time at first base if <span>Ryan McMahon</span> stumbles out of the gate (and the Rockies don’t bring back <span>Mark Reynolds</span>). Either way, he’ll be a viable Colorado option on the days he plays. Valaika had a staggering 50.4% fly ball rate last year, something we like to see in the thin air of Coors.</p>
<p id="pf17gy"><span>Paul DeJong</span> looks like the knockoff version of Trevor Story against southpaws. Less powerful, sure—but when he gets a park boost against a southpaw, that’s something to pay attention to if you want some pop on a tournament team.</p>
<p id="94pSbh">If you don’t want to pay up for Lindor or Correa, <span>Zack Cozart</span> looks like a safe bet with that shiny 13.9% strikeout rate and healthy 12.2% walk rate. <span>Ian Kinsler</span>, another <a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Angels</a> addition this offseason, appeared as a potential cash game option when I discussed <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/24/17025578/daily-fantasy-strategy-second-base">the keystone</a>. Perhaps I’ll just have Angels stacks every day in 2018...<span>Cozart</span> is slated to hit sixth in the order, but I could see him vaulting <span>Kole Calhoun</span> and <span>Albert Pujols</span> at times due to ineptitude and/or injuries.</p>
<p id="T9LYBC">Corey Seager actually makes 11 men on this list, not 10. But he was next in line according to ISO and he’s the sneaky one due to being the only left-handed hitter (against LHPs) on the list. Seager had eight home runs against southpaws last year, trailing only Lindor (11), Story (10), and Baez (9). Lefty-on-lefty is a split I aim to use more of in 2018, as most DFSers feel much safer in the righty-versus-lefty split (which drives up ownership). Be contrarian without being stupid, right?</p>
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<div id="CkEcMx"><div data-anthem-component="table:919161"></div></div>
<p id="3ohnmv">Holy Pat Valaika! Okay, let’s not get carried away. Against right-handed pitching Valaika posted a miserable 67 wRC+ and struck out 28.6% of the time. His best split was at home against southpaws, as his walk rate was a palatable 7.5% and he slashed .270/.325/.595 with a .316 ISO. If Valaika gets the start against a southpaw at home, he makes for a solid option if he is cheaper than most of the other Coors bats. Against right-handed pitchers in Coors, Valaika’s walk rate plummets to a nearly nonexistent 1.6%, the worst of any of his splits. However, the .373 ISO and 38.1% hard contact rate at home against right-handers were the best of any of Valaika’s splits. This reads like a guy that has a “grip-it-and-rip-it” mentality when facing a right-handed pitcher at home. Plan your DFS lineups accordingly.</p>
<p id="Amz1Ic">Hey, this just in: Carlos Correa and <span>Francisco Lindor</span> are good. #analysis</p>
<p id="Zq7HmD">There’s that Cozart guy again. Why are we not targeting him in season-long leagues? Cozart is a defensive wizard who has morphed from contact hitter to contact guy with power. He will play third base for the Halos, but if he retains shortstop eligibility on DFS sites I will be all over him in 2018.</p>
<p id="3wPAkX">I really like Didi Gregorius in DFS. You know what you’re getting. He won’t walk much, but he doesn’t strikeout much and plays in a loaded lineup. We get more points for hits and home runs, last I checked. Gregorius gets his dingers against right-handed pitching (22 of 25 last year) and by pulling the ball (41.7% pull percentage vs. RHPs). With that short right field porch in Yankee Stadium, Gregorius is a great play whenever the Yanks face a righty at home.</p>
<p id="byL4m1">Not so fast! Gregorius actually fared better against right-handers on the road last year. He had a .350 BA and hit 12 HRs on the road in 2017, compared to a .235 BA and 10 HRs vs. right-handed pitching at home. I’ll put money on a BA rebound for Gregorius at home this year. I’ll use him in DFS frequently and I just drafted him in Round 7 (pick 99) of <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/1/17069470/fantasy-baseball-expert-draft-results-rankings-tgfbi">The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational</a>.</p>
<p id="zFeWXB">Addison Russell is still only 24 years old and has posted a .179 ISO in each of the last two seasons. Unfortunately for us, the walk rate fell by almost two percent last year (7.5%), but the line drive rate has improved over the course of Russell’s career, culminating in a healthy 23.0% rate in 2017. If Russell can raise his fly ball rate to 2015 levels (40.7%) and lower that career 40.9% ground ball rate, we might have something here. After all, he did hit the ball harder than ever in 2017 (32.2% hard) and made far less soft contact than the year prior (13.8% compared to 23.7%). Color me intrigued.</p>
<p id="azdQO3"><span>Chris Owings</span> has made a living by raking at Coors (.887 OPS, .223 ISO). His performance on the road (.590 OPS, .124 ISO) is concerning, though—especially if Arizona’s humidor has the desired effect on offensive output. Owings and the other Arizona guys (with the exception of Goldschmidt) are players I’ll be shying away from to start 2018. I’ll be using all the <span>Taijuan Walker</span>, though.</p>
<p id="WIDhsI">Next up: Third Base!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/3/4/17047986/daily-fantasy-strategy-shortstopHeath Capps2018-02-23T11:00:07-05:002018-02-23T11:00:07-05:00Staff Post: Shortstops to Avoid in 2018
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<img alt="MLB: ALDS-Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Z0FXTcvXQfXDV4mzsLj_2UREtDU=/0x0:3602x2401/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58794287/usa_today_10337575.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams Staff tell you who to avoid at shortstop, including Elvis Andrus, Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story and Paul DeJong.</p> <p id="2B7Asr">Earlier this morning we shared our <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/23/17042758/staff-post-shortstops-to-target-in-2018">favorite targets</a>. Now it’s time for the other side. Not the dark side, but the side we are less excited about for one reason or another.</p>
<h3 id="n8uBvf">Staff Targets at Shortstop 2018</h3>
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<img alt="MLB: New York Yankees at Texas Rangers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vh-MJOMwmgP2RfnnSU65Ohl913Q=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10284037/usa_today_10309185.jpg">
<cite>Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="LuJ0H0"><span>Elvis Andrus</span>, <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a> (Eddy Almaguer)</p>
<p id="bsn8l8">ADP: 58.5</p>
<p id="ny5A3r">Elvis Andrus is going to disappoint many owners this year. He is the fifth shortstop off the board at pick 58 overall and everyone is expecting he repeats his 20/25 performance. First, the only thing that changed was the ball. There were no<em> dramatic </em>shifts in his profile to suggest a jump from eight home runs in 2016 to 20 in 2017. Yeah, he hit plenty of doubles and it wasn’t just homers, but I’m betting on the under being 15. Most alarmingly, however, is he stole just five bases in the second half in eight attempts. Why? Beginning in mid-August he began hitting third as he and the team embraced his new power. Part of his allure is the 20/20, right? Get ready for 15/10.</p>
<p id="J0uKjk"></p>
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<img alt="MLB: ALDS-Boston Red Sox Workouts" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0Qh5TCCjM_tSMyR8GFoEugKqJaA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10284033/usa_today_10327706.jpg">
<cite>Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="rVafxv"><span>Xander Bogaerts</span>, <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> (Punk is Dead)</p>
<p id="E2rh4a">ADP: 85.4</p>
<p id="rht0tz"><span>Xander Bogaerts</span> was heavily overrated last year. It seems the consensus has corrected this heading into 2018 but I am still unlikely to draft him. Bogaerts finished 2017 as the #13 SS in roto and #136 overall. The power numbers took a big hit in 2017 compared to 2016. I’m leaning towards seeing more of the 2017 version of Bogaerts this year. Still a solid player, but certainly not the #7 SS and #76 overall which is what his current ADP suggests. I’m taking players like <span>Jean Segura</span>, the aforementioned Gregorius, and even <span>Javier Baez</span> over Bogaerts in 2018.</p>
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<img alt="MLB: Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/K2lYoQ2U9Epf73yv2JtPyN-zNbA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10284427/usa_today_10242407.jpg">
<cite>Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="G8E5Uq"><span>Trevor Story</span>, <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a> (Joe Gentile)</p>
<p id="dz9OvE">ADP: 118.6</p>
<p id="6vBFkS">Story scares me a lot when I look further into his stats. Sure, he can be a 30/10 player when fully healthy, but his tendency to strikeout only increased last season. With a 34.4% strikeout rate, Story is going to need to hit a lot of line drives to keep that average away from the Mendoza line. The problem I have is only 18.5% of his batted balls were line drives. If that is the case again, you could be looking at an even lower BABIP in 2018...and we all know what that means.</p>
<p id="GGt4cm"></p>
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<img alt="MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/n-o4XwFnQraFt8w4XM48zQvyFFg=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10284423/usa_today_10317772.jpg">
<cite>Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="pkNCvj"><span>Paul DeJong</span>, <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a> (Heath Capps)</p>
<p id="I7uHhR">ADP: 148.1</p>
<p id="xyP5d3">Part of this is acknowledging the state of this position. For my part, I plan to pay up early with a guy like <span>Corey Seager</span>, who compares favorably to <span>Carlos Correa</span> but can be drafted a couple of rounds later. Partly it’s roster construction—I enjoy having speed and upside at this position, and I’d prefer to get that with a guy like <span>Jorge Polanco</span>, who is being drafted a solid 50 picks after DeJong. DeJong should hit around seventh for St. Louis this year, while Polanco is projected to bat fifth (or higher, if Sano misses any time). I just don’t see the upside for a guy like DeJong, who is basically only going to contribute in the power department. You can find 25 home runs anywhere these days.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/23/17043868/staff-post-shortstops-to-avoid-in-2018Heath CappsEddy AlmaguerJoe GentileGarrett Atkins2018-02-23T07:30:02-05:002018-02-23T07:30:02-05:00Staff Post: Shortstops to Target in 2018
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<img alt="MLB: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DH5bfVlqrm-QC9bWIGnlSkqEfQg=/44x0:3239x2130/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58793123/usa_today_10312835.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>David Richard-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Fake Teams Staff tell you which shortstops to target in 2018, including Didi Gregorius, Addison Russell, Jorge Polanco and Ketel Marte.</p> <p id="rU2PB5"><a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/19/17030268/shortstop-week">Shortstop Week</a> is drawing to close, but that doesn’t mean we are done yet. What follows are some of our favorite guys to target, and later today we will offer our guys to avoid.</p>
<h3 id="1zdqxl">2018 Staff Targets at Shortstop</h3>
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<img alt="MLB: New York Yankees-Media Day" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5wf01ASRwos2YsP3Pnlxn5Njbrs=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10283045/usa_today_10640584.jpg">
<cite>Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="9S7NQ2"><span>Didi Gregorius</span>, <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> (Punk is Dead)</p>
<p id="77rVzC">ADP: 113.2</p>
<p id="nFdyEt">Didi Gregorius always and forever. He has been a top 10 shortstop in each of the last two seasons. He has improved his numbers (BB%, K%, ISO) each of the last two seasons as well. Now, he is playing in an even better Yankees lineup. It is time fantasy owners started drafting him like a top 10 shortstop.</p>
<p id="bXfgOK"></p>
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<img alt="MLB: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LkIDQ5yU8DMHbE2gw0zCsceplkI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10283059/usa_today_10279205.jpg">
<cite>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="XNXa2W"><span>Jorge Polanco</span>, <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a> (Heath Capps)</p>
<p id="un8lfD">ADP: 202.9</p>
<p id="XqVqlW">I discussed Polanco in our <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/19/17026524/state-of-the-position-shortstop">state of the position</a> on Monday. He is 24 years old and coming off of a 13/13 season in which he slashed .256/.313/.410. He did this in 133 games. In 2018, he should bat fifth for Minnesota—a productive spot in a lineup that was seventh in runs scored last year. Polanco moved up to third in the batting order when <span>Miguel Sano</span> missed time last year, for what it’s worth. It’s clear that he will be in a position to produce, and with some power and some pop I love his 15/15 potential and .270+ BA potential (last year’s .278 BABIP is likely to improve). After pick 200, I’m all over Polanco this year.</p>
<p id="VRmEla"></p>
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<img alt="MLB: Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OWDfDPqlJ2ZZgcVZlPnWgu1mHPY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10283079/usa_today_10352395.jpg">
<cite>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="7jsQ0n"><span>Addison Russell</span>, <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> (Joe Gentile)</p>
<p id="JmiWSH">ADP: 259.0</p>
<p id="Yf1WbS">After three pretty disappointing seasons, it seems like everyone doesn’t believe in Addison Russell anymore. His current ADP is 263.8 and I truly believe that is a steal for the upside you could be getting. He is only going to be 24 years old to begin the season, and he has shown improvements in line drive rate, hard contact rate and swinging strike rate every year he has been in the majors. The biggest reason I love Russell heading into 2018 is his 13.8% soft contact rate from 2017, which was better than Cody Bellinger’s and J.D. Martinez’s rates last year. Russell has been improving his game since reaching the majors and it looks like 2018 could be the year he finally breaks out as a fantasy star.</p>
<p id="eRx5gY"></p>
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<img alt="MLB: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sylqg9vzEE4oi1sn5cGFroLh4Iw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10283089/usa_today_10270358.jpg">
<cite>Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="7a9lBJ"><span>Ketel Marte</span>, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> (Eddy Almaguer)</p>
<p id="zHvMXQ">ADP: 352.5</p>
<p id="2cPDlF">Beginning in late June, <span>Ketel Marte</span> took over as the DBacks’ regular shortstop. In 73 games, his counting stats look really pedestrian. Just five home runs and three stolen bases. But don’t miss out on his 11 percent walk rate and 14 percent strikeout rate that led to a .260 AVG and .345 OBP. Marte has no competition at his position, and even though Arizona now has a humidor that will hurt offense, hitting bombs wasn’t part of his game to begin with. Still just 24, he is an improving player. Last season he began hitting the ball in the air a little more and a little harder. I’m not saying he’s a slugger now, but instead of five home runs we might be looking at 10. With an ADP of 353, Marte is free in drafts. He is a great grab in deep leagues and NL-only formats and has a strong chance at standard mixed league viability by the end of April.</p>
<div id="eua9EQ"><div data-anthem-component="poll:906727"></div></div>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/23/17042758/staff-post-shortstops-to-target-in-2018Heath CappsGarrett AtkinsJoe GentileEddy Almaguer2018-02-22T12:00:01-05:002018-02-22T12:00:01-05:002018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Shortstop
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<img alt="MLB: NL Wildcard-Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RUcjVF3w5ZU35a57ScM-1s3pRBs=/0x75:3395x2338/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58771417/usa_today_10357089.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Shortstop is known as a very shallow position once you get past the top six, but not as much as you would think..</p> <p id="kndWln">If you have missed out this week, be sure to check out our stream for <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/19/17030268/shortstop-week">Shortstop Week</a>, which has all the content on the dot com since Monday. Now let’s get to some “sleepers.”</p>
<h3 id="Gg9bxO">
<span>Addison Russell</span>, <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a> (ADP:263.8)</h3>
<p id="fymI2R">There is no denying Russell’s ability with the glove, but his offensive output over the past three seasons has been nothing short of a disappointment. With a .239/.304/.418 slash line and only 12 home runs last season, I am sure many people are wondering why I have him ranked as my ninth shortstop for 2018. </p>
<p id="GFOYy3">Although his strikeout rate did increase to 23.6% last season, his swinging strike rate and contact rates have slowly been improving since reaching the major leagues in 2015. His hard contact rates and line drive rates have also been improving, and his soft contact rate was a very impressive 13.8% last season. These trends should continue in 2018, and this could be the first season we see him post a batting average over .250. At the moment I currently project him to have a batting average above .260. With a good amount of raw power, Russell could be a fantasy stud if he can cut down on those strikeouts. </p>
<h3 id="JUbKRA">
<span>Amed Rosario</span>, <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">New York Mets</a> (ADP: 265.5)</h3>
<p id="HIpBcL"><span>Rosario</span> was the Mets’ number one prospect to start last season and could break out to become a fantasy star in 2018. Among runners with at least ten opportunities, he ranked fifth in Statcast's Sprint Speed, just ahead of <span>Delino DeShields</span> and <span>Manuel Margot</span>. With superb line drive rates throughout the minors, it is possible that Rosario can hit for a decent average. I am a little concerned about his poor plate discipline, but I can overlook that due to his low cost and 15/30 potential. </p>
<h3 id="ZpX6jJ">
<span>Ketel Marte</span>, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a> (ADP: 349.3)</h3>
<p id="1fMfKw"><span>Marte</span> doesn't get enough love for what he can do offensively. In 2016 he only hit 20.2% of batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph. In 2017 that number rose to 34.6%. That is a 14.4% difference and shows that his rise in power last season was no fluke. His value does go down a little bit, but he still shows the potential to be a 15/20 player. With steals being taken so early in drafts, this makes Marte a big bargain for where he is currently being drafted. </p>
<h3 id="u5Nbsu">
<span>Dansby Swanson</span>, <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> (ADP: 354.3)</h3>
<p id="oZoLEr">Swanson was being drafted with the 188th pick last season, and after a terrible 2017 his ADP has dropped out of the top 300. Swanson's .292 BABIP does show some bad luck as he should be someone who posts a high BABIP. With a minuscule 18.0% soft contact rate and 23.2% line drive rate last season, his BABIP should be around the .310-.320 range. This would help him post a batting average around the .260 mark, which would help make him a fantasy relevant player again.</p>
<p id="DVka8p"> </p>
<div id="Y4xeVh"><div data-anthem-component="poll:904240"></div></div>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/22/17029802/2018-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-shortstop-breakouts-adp-bargins-ss-addison-russell-ketel-marteJoe Gentile2018-02-22T10:00:02-05:002018-02-22T10:00:02-05:00Career Year Analysis - Shortstops
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/A5HIyfEz4wDBhQ80-m1fdcC4Dmw=/0x0:2339x1559/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58765397/usa_today_10321046.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A look at who is coming off a career year and how it impacts their draft stock.</p> <p id="UZ5Ev5">I am trying out a more abstract idea with today’s post. My goal is to identify players who performed significantly better or significantly worse in 2017 compared to their career averages. This would quickly identify candidates to fade in drafts (coming off career highs) and candidates to target (coming off career lows). It’s not a definitive list of players to target and avoid, but it’s a great place to start for players with multiple years of service in the Majors. I’ve included players with only a year or two of service for reference, and because there are some useful data points for those players.</p>
<p id="2qZL7s">Before reviewing the entire table, a few notes about each field:</p>
<ul>
<li id="jm7H0Q">Age is as of the 2017 season</li>
<li id="YPbsE9">Only seasons with greater than 400 plate appearances are considered. This means career averages are a little different from what you will find on baseball-reference or FanGraphs.</li>
<li id="UphIK8">Each of the “Above Career Average” field is measured in the same units as the metric in question. So <span>Zack Cozart</span> being 11.8 R above career average means he scored 11.8 more runs then his career average in 2017.</li>
<li id="Md73Z2">The last column “Career Year Index” is a combination of all five categories to measure who exceeded their career averages the most across all five statistics. This statistic is normalized for plate appearances, so players who earned more runs, home runs, etc. solely because of more playing time do not score well here. Each stat besides average is taken on a per plate appearance basis.</li>
<li id="ZVM9GF">Do not fall for the trap of “Player X greatly exceeded his career average, he must regress!” But do consider Player X is worth a deeper dive to see if his improvement is driven by a change in approach/skill set development or if it was fueled by luck/randomness and regression is to be expected.</li>
</ul>
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<div id="wcGr5d"><div data-anthem-component="table:903441"></div></div>
<p id="i57bGY"></p>
<p id="24OoYV">The table is meant largely to help others fuel their own research and come to their own conclusions. Please share them in the comments, or reach out via Twitter/email. I have a few of my own thoughts below as well.</p>
<p id="9nyfcW"><span>Andrelton Simmons</span> is looking like fools gold at the end of drafts. His stolen base total from 2017 is 10 above his career total and his home run surge is driven by a doubling of his HR/FB rate. Give me <span>Marcus Semien</span> 30 picks later or <span>Tim Anderson</span> around the same spot.</p>
<p id="WL4QNa"><span>Zack Cozart</span> is an obvious regression candidate but his pricing has safely baked the regression in. He is going around pick 222 (Round 19) in NFBC leagues, which is slightly overvalued but at that point in the draft it’s hard to argue anyone being mis-priced. I’d much rather have <span>Addison Russell</span>, <span>Brandon Crawford</span>, or <span>Starlin Castro</span> a few rounds later.</p>
<p id="qNm5rk">I may be severely underrating <span>Trevor Story</span>. His batting average took a .033 hit despite only a .011 change in BABIP. His HR% was bound to drop, but Story still plays in Coors and has validated his floor as a 25 HR threat at shortstop. He is priced assuming he hits around .240-.250, but if he can return to his .270 batting average of 2016 he is a huge steal. I may have to target more Trevor Story around Round 8 or 9.</p>
<p id="081OpR"><span>Elvis Andrus</span> is another guy I’m fading in drafts. The HR rate is absurd - 14 home runs more than his career average, and we have a good sample for Andrus. His stolen bases are still helpful, and the average appears to be a safe bet around .285, but I can’t spend a Round 5 pick on such a big question mark.</p>
<p id="GssR0I">If you have any questions or comments or just want to chat further about your league, please don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/BrianCreagh"><strong>@BrianCreagh</strong></a> or via email bcreagh119@gmail.com.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/22/17033992/career-year-analysis-shortstops-fantasy-baseball-expertsBrian Creagh2018-02-21T11:00:01-05:002018-02-21T11:00:01-05:00Tiered Shortstop Rankings Analysis
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<img alt="MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RpfpEKmYsowpnOsNoXn931sbxOc=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58760419/usa_today_10319146.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Russell Lansford-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Brian Creagh digs deeper into the projections to find the implied tiers in shortstop rankings.</p> <p id="eB3HpU">We’ll keep shortstop week going with my favorite article of the week—implied tiers analysis. If you missed this <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/1/31/16953514/fantasy-baseball-catcher-rankings-analysis-expert-tiers"><strong>same article from Catcher Week</strong></a>, I would recommend giving the overview a quick read. The concept remains the same: using a relatively vanilla projection model (Steamer) we discern the implied tiers where production makes a big drop from one player to the next. Furthermore, looking at current ADP values (via FanGraphs) we discover where it may be advantageous to take a shortstop in drafts.</p>
<p id="GD6SiS">For each position, we will only rank as many players as are typically owned in your standard 5x5, 12-man league. For shortstop, this means approximately 23 players. So without further ado, here are the implied tiers for shorstop:</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vmM9oyEG4HgMSRsevw_EKA26UlE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10269711/ss.png">
</figure>
<p id="7FMDwZ"></p>
<p id="pHoTN5">Again, a few explanations—zSUM is the sum of all a player’s z-scores for each of the 5 categories. It is not the be-all and end-all definition of a player’s value, because a player’s worth to a team is dependent to the construction of that specific team (i.e. <span><strong>Billy Hamilton</strong></span> doesn’t mean as much to a team that already has <span><strong>Dee Gordon</strong></span>). It is an excellent approximation of a player’s general value compared to the rest of the position and a helpful metric for organizing similar expected output.</p>
<p id="V2xh5c">Tiers are represented by the solid black line and were generated subjectively by looking at both zSUM and current ADP. The double black line beneath <span>Marcus Semien</span> represents the average production at the position—players above the line are “above-average” and players below the line are “below-average”. It is my goal to leave every draft with an above-average player at each position, so having this break-even point in mind is extremely helpful.</p>
<p id="R8QNaT">Next we need to compare this zSUM metric to where each player is currently being drafted. If we can wait a round or two and get the same production as an earlier pick, we are setting ourselves up for success. The graph below plots each player’s zSUM vs. their current ADP with a trend line running through the scatter plot. A simple way of interpreting the chart is: players above the line represent good value, while players below the line represent poor value at their current ADP.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y04OONNDpMvvx3PzbBkn6w8k_vM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10264663/ss_matrix.png">
</figure>
<p id="t75XiH">(click image to zoom)</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="p4kcpY">
<h2 id="idfvMp">Observations</h2>
<p id="AlkcN0">Marcus Semien is going very underdrafted. With production slightly better than <span>Didi Gregorius</span>, Semien is going 120 picks later in drafts! I’ve seen some buzz growing around Semien and expect his 231 ADP (according to NFBC drafts) to creep up, but there’s a lot of buffer between his current price and break-even value.</p>
<p id="t1rHu7">I’m fascinated by the big three at the top of the position - <span>Trea Turner</span>, <span>Carlos Correa</span>, and Francisco Lindor. <span>Correa</span>’s Steamer projections are across only 592 plate appearances compared to Lindor’s 662 and <span>Trea Turner</span>’s 632. I rank them <span>Turner</span>, Correa, and Lindor but don’t hate any of them at their current ADP levels. I’ve talked myself into Turner being a Top 5 pick in standard formats and kicking the tires on him at the 4th spot in <a href="https://www.fantrax.com/fantasy/league/itfurr37jdblw6me/home">The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational</a>.</p>
<p id="KxtiIp"><span>Elvis Andrus</span> is incredibly polarizing for me. On the one hand, his 24+ stolen bases for the past five years and ~.300 batting average for the past two give him such a solid floor. On the other hand, his run and runs batted in production has been all over the place:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aS6ZC1OXSD-ERDmWwmDgP2b6Bjk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10264849/andrus.png">
</figure>
<p id="0Miq40">Steamer is pessimistic on Andrus for 2018, but I prefer him to <span>Xander Bogaerts</span> and like him late in Round 5.</p>
<p id="EwAWYy"><span>Trevor Story</span> is where I try to draw the line for the position. I want Story or anyone rated higher, or else I panic. I like Semien as a late pick but would hate to rely on him in standard 12-team formats. I reach for Story in Round 9 if I don’t have a shortstop at that point in the draft.</p>
<p id="b2GyXx"><span>Jean Segura</span> and <span>Javier Baez</span> are the two players I’m staying away from. I haven’t seen them at a price I find worthwhile in any early drafts. <span>Segura</span> is interesting if you think the changes in his GB/FB ratio are sustainable and he’s going to be closer to a .300 average versus his projected .270 range. I’m on the more pessimistic side and sitting out on paying for Segura.</p>
<p id="U13kUN">If you have any questions or comments or just want to chat further about your league, please don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/BrianCreagh"><strong>@BrianCreagh</strong></a> or via email bcreagh119@gmail.com.</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/21/17033364/tiered-shortstop-rankings-analysis-expert-picks-fantasy-baseballBrian Creagh2018-02-21T08:30:01-05:002018-02-21T08:30:01-05:00Shortstops to Target in 2018
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ex_2FdgrifIVRjoeuTCp6blcEhQ=/0x0:2364x1576/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58744955/usa_today_10627466.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Shortstop is perhaps the weakest position other than catcher. That doesn’t mean there aren’t great values to be had.</p> <p id="uoBDMx">Shortstop has a lot of wildcards. Even the six names you’re about to read all have varying potential outcomes for 2018. Here are a few I’m targeting on draft day:</p>
<h2 id="P04Wo7"><span>Didi Gregorius</span></h2>
<h4 id="S2BZV1">Current Rank: 81<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 120</h4>
<p id="6tpCQy">Probably my favorite target at shortstop for the second straight season, Gregorius was phenomenal in 2017. He began the year on the DL, but when he returned on April 28 he was easily a top 100 fantasy option. 25 home runs, 87 RBIs, and 73 runs scored? Give him all of April and he could be a 30 homer, 100 RBI player at shortstop! This breakout actually started in 2016 when Gregorius was a top 10 shortstop in points leagues and top 150 overall in roto. He topped that in 2017 as the #9 shortstop in points and #116 overall in roto. An even better lineup around him in 2018, coupled with a healthy start means Gregorius is at worst a top 100 player. </p>
<h2 id="TU3JiF"><span>Zack Cozart</span></h2>
<h4 id="qFC2Dv">Current Rank: 188<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 217</h4>
<p id="e4P9hA"><em>Health</em> is the key word with <span>Cozart</span>. If you take his three-year totals and project them for 162 games, you get 27 home runs, 78 RBIs, 96 runs, and a .271 average. Last year, Cozart actually hit .297 with a .548 slugging percentage. This provides evidence he is getting even better. He also had a very impressive 1.26 K/BB ratio in 2017. His improvement in this area can be traced back to the 2015 season. In short, Cozart has been this good for three years, he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy long enough to show it. He’s a great value going outside the top 200 of ECR.</p>
<h2 id="r3ngOC"><span>Tim Anderson</span></h2>
<h4 id="qC8B0b">Current Rank: 189<br>Expect Consensus Rank: 219</h4>
<p id="Svg8FS">Anderson is a pure roto play, but he is dominant in that format. The .257 batting average wasn’t amazing in 2017, but 17 homers and 15 steals are great for a shortstop being taken outside the top 200 overall. Following the All-Star break, Anderson hit .280 with eight HRs and 10 stolen bases. He has 20/20 upside going, again, outside the top 200.<br>Check out this graph using PECOTA projections for 2018:</p>
<div id="64PHQI">
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<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Player</th>
<th>PA</th>
<th>AVG</th>
<th>OBP</th>
<th>SLG</th>
<th>HR</th>
<th>RBI</th>
<th>R</th>
<th>SB</th>
<th>ADP</th>
</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Rougned Odor</td>
<td>570</td>
<td>.257</td>
<td>.303</td>
<td>.459</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tim Anderson</td>
<td>630</td>
<td>.265</td>
<td>.290</td>
<td>.411</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>223</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<p id="c1beQn"></p>
<p id="0YABUO">To add to my everlasting feud with <span>Rougned Odor</span>, Anderson is pretty similar to <span>Odor</span>, just 125 picks later in the draft...</p>
<p id="kWYpWu">In addition to these players, here are a few other options who are currently ranked outside the Top 250 of the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings:</p>
<p id="xapJyW"><span>Gleyber Torres</span><br>My Rank: 243 Expert Consensus Rank: 310<br>Maybe he’ll hit at the bottom of the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> lineup. That’s fine! Still 20/20 upside in the best lineup in baseball.</p>
<p id="OnmdBe"><span>Jose Reyes</span><br>My Rank: 342 Expert Consensus Rank: 454<br>He found a way to get over 500 at bats last year and wasn’t too bad. For someone going outside the top 400, Reyes has pretty solid upside with his power/speed combo.</p>
<p id="VlfbY3"><span>Franklin Barreto</span><br>My Rank: 343 Expert Consensus Rank: 615<br>In the minors, Barreto had an 11 home run, 30 steal season in 2016, followed by a 15 home run, 15 steal year in 2017. Barreto is going outside the top 500! Hello, high upside dart throw!</p>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/21/17027970/fantasy-baseball-sleepers-targets-roto-mlb-shortstop-didi-gregorius-tim-anderson-zack-cozartGarrett Atkins2018-02-20T10:00:04-05:002018-02-20T10:00:04-05:002018 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Shortstops (Part 2)
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Fmb26SrEMlp_xP8sduPis76vqF0=/0x0:4358x2905/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58751765/usa_today_10199151.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Fake Teams Staff give you the second half of their Top 30.</p> <p id="VqWnl6">Shortstop week is in full swing. Get it? I’ll be here all week.</p>
<p id="bTSIYl">Yesterday was the <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/19/17026524/state-of-the-position-shortstop">state of the position</a> and <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/19/17026754/2018-fantasy-baseball-rankings-shorstops-part-1">Part 1</a> of our rankings. Today, <a href="https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/20/17030280/shortstops-elite-middle-bargain-fantasy">Eddy’s three-tier piece</a> dropped and here is Part 2 of rankings. As always, feel free to haggle with what we came up with in the comments below.</p>
<p id="hODtsJ"></p>
<div id="plBUKD"><div data-anthem-component="table:901849"></div></div>
https://www.faketeams.com/2018/2/20/17030962/2018-fantasy-baseball-rankings-shortstops-part-2Heath Capps