Fake Teams: All Posts by Jason Hunt

Off Topic: What A Long, Strange Trip It’s Been

2016-10-04T05:00:03-04:00

If you came for the fantasy analysis, this time it is sorely lacking. You should read it anyway.

To be honest, this isn’t a post that I necessarily thought I’d be writing. Granted, when I started writing, I didn’t know that I’d be writing for particularly long in the first place. Writing was something that I started doing simply because I had free time, and an interest.

Shortly after getting married in August 2009, my wife and I packed up our stuff, put most of it in storage, and set off on an adventure. The salary and benefits that came along with her new job as a traveling physical therapist would a) pay her enough for me not to have to work and b) allow us to travel around the country based on those assignments. It was an amazing experience, but while the ability to not have to have a job was interesting, it also left me with a lot of time to fill while she was at work.

Baseball had interested me for a long time, and I needed some kind of outlet for the things I had been reading and learning about. My wife, a pretty big Cubs fan, eventually reached the point where she didn’t really want to hear all that much about how I thought Cole Hamels might do, or really anything all that in depth with regard to baseball. She suggested that maybe writing would provide me an outlet (and a different audience) which might appreciate the information more.

So I set out with my little bit of knowledge, created a wimpy little Wordpress blog, and started pushing out posts. One of the things that was suggested to me early on was the fact that the best way to get better at writing was to just keep plugging away and writing. So I did. I wrote about my thoughts on the Hall of Fame candidates, how the MLB roster rules worked, and really anything else that I thought might be interesting. In a bit of a harbinger, I wrote about prospects. Not all that surprisingly, some of these posts were not so great. However, I also thought after playing fantasy baseball for eight years, I might know enough to spout off my opinions on that as well.

In an effort to try to get more exposure for my work at that Wordpress blog, I decided to try to cross-promote them by putting a snippet into a FanPost here at Fake Teams. I did this a few more times, and eventually Ray asked me if I would be interested in doing some writing for the site directly. That was in February 2010.

One of the things which motivated me as time progressed was actually one of my own fantasy baseball leagues. The league was a true dynasty league, and every year it had a three round minor league draft. Inevitably, I would try to do my research each offseason into which prospects would be the most interesting for my team, and pretty consistently I would struggle to find information that was specific to fantasy baseball. The big sites which cover prospects like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus were primarily covering prospects in the way they always had: their value to major league organizations, and not to fantasy baseball.

Over time, this led me into covering the minor leagues from a fantasy baseball perspective here at Fake Teams. I’ve been writing about the minors now for almost five years, with the aim of trying to provide information that would be more useful in that particular league. In that time, I’ve been a part of one of the best fantasy sites out there, and watched as a number of writers have come, written here for a while, and in many cases, moved onto bigger and better things. If you’re interested in getting a start with writing, this is a great place to do it.

The coverage across the industry has shifted to include the dynasty audience as well. You see many of those same major sites now include fantasy impact on prospect call-ups, as well as an overall push to provide more in-depth content for leagues beyond your standard redraft league. As someone who looks for that kind of information in my own leagues, it’s been a welcome change.

A lot has changed in that time for me as well. We stopped traveling and got permanently located jobs after about 15 months. We moved back to my wife’s hometown of Sacramento. I’ve had three jobs, and my wife and I have been blessed with two sons. Through all of that, one thing that has remained constant has been the writing.

However, as these things have changed in my life, the demands on my free time have as well, and the time for a change has come for me as well. About a month ago, I notified our fearless leader, Ray Guilfoyle, that I would that I would be stepping away from writing at this time.

One of the things I have always aimed to do with my writing is provide solid and complete analysis, because I understand that everyone is busy, and if you’re going to spend the time to read what I’ve written, I want to make sure it is as complete as it can be. However, that takes time, and I have always told myself that if I can’t allocate the time needed to do my writing to the level I expect, it’s time to stop.

The site and the coverage remain in good hands, as they have since before I arrived here. The writers may change, but Ray continues to build and develop an excellent group of writers each and every year. The minor league coverage will continue with Domenic and Michael, and things will go on. I will still be on the site, reading and adding to the discussion when I feel the desire to do so. I can’t finish up this post without expressing my gratitude, so you’ll forgive me for this part being a bit long.

While I know that the quality of the writing I produced allowed me to continue to write for six years, it was Ray who gave me the first opportunity here, and I thank him immensely for that. It’s been a lot of fun throughout, and I could not have done it without your support.

I’ve worked and interacted here with a number of excellent writers who have helped me to develop both my writing style and my analytical skills with regard to how prospects are scouted, valued, and developed. I am so excited to see how many of them continue to work within the baseball universe, and cannot wait to see how each of them continues to grow.

Finally, thank you to all the readers. Without you, I’m just a guy posting things to no one in particular. The discussions and comments over the years have pushed me to think things through in different ways, evaluate my own processes, and reminded me that there are still more things to learn about. Knowing that you value the writing, and expect a high level of quality analysis has made me push to meet that standard every time out.

Rankings in Review: Preseason Top 10 Catching Prospects

2016-08-18T10:00:05-04:00

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The minor league season has entered its' final month, and with that I always like to start taking a look back at how my rankings went during the preseason. The first position up is catcher, of which you can find the complete top 20 here.

Jorge Alfaro - Phillies (AA)

Alfaro got off to a hot start at AA in April, going 18 for 36 with 10 RBI in his first eight games. However, an oblique injury sidelined him for a couple weeks, and brought his numbers back to earth. He returned on May 7th, and has hit .256/.304/.407 with 11 home runs in the 76 games since. He’s expected to head to AAA in 2017 rather than straight to the majors, but given that his defense is still considered to be behind his bat, that’s not all that surprising.

2. Jacob Nottingham - Brewers (AA)

A trade to the Brewers in the offseason didn’t really have a specific impact on Nottingham’s path to the majors given that the starter at the time, Jonathan Lucroy, was one of the most likely players to be traded before the deadline. However, Nottingham has not hit well at AA, with a .239/.299/.345 slash line, wRC+ of 82 and a serious spike in strikeout rate (up to 30% this year). His defense was a question at the beginning of the year, but it sounds like he has improved enough that he is expected to keep catcher eligibility long term. Overall, his value is probably similar to the offseason, as he is still expected to hit well for a catcher, and can still end up as a top 10 catcher overall in the majors.

3. Gary Sanchez - Yankees (Majors)

Sanchez didn’t end up serving as the backup to Brian McCann as I speculated in January, but rather spent the majority of the season at AAA before being called up to stay at the start of this month. He’s been splitting his time between catcher and designated hitter since being called up, and is 16 for 43 with 4 home runs since returning.

4. Tom Murphy - Rockies (AAA)

Murphy missed the first month of the season with an oblique injury, but has been hitting well ever since. On the season, he’s hitting .315/.345/.637 with 15 home runs in 66 games at AAA Albuquerque. While hitting stats at Albuquerque usually need to be taken with a grain of salt, Murphy’s wRC+ of 152 overall and a road slash line of .267/.296/.585 show the performance to be more than just a product of his home park.

5. Chris Betts - Rays (Short-Season)

Betts did not make his professional debut until June 24th this year after having Tommy John surgery, and has not hit well so far between two short season levels. His value is essentially unchanged at this point, and is still likely to need 3-4 years of development before he could see the majors.

6. Tyler Stephenson - Reds (Low-A)

It’s been a tough season for Stephenson, who has appeared in just 39 games despite starting in a full-season league this year. Injuries have led to four different disabled list stints, and he seems likely to return to Low-A in 2017.

7. Willson Contreras - Cubs (Graduated)

Contreras spent the first two months at AAA Iowa before the Cubs called him up. It became abundantly clear that, at least from an offensive stand point, he had little else to work on there, hitting .353/.442/.593 with 9 home runs in 55 games. Since being called up, the Cubs have worked him into the lineup wherever possible, as he’s seen time behind the plate as well as first base and left field. He got off to a hot start, but has settled in with an excellent .266/.354/.444 line in 50 games so far. This ranking was probably too low in the offseason, as he can be a perennial top 10 catcher as long as he qualifies.

8. Austin Barnes - Dodgers (AAA)

Barnes represents a unique prospect, in that he has seen significant time at both catcher, second base, and even third base in the minors this year. He’s hit well at AAA Oklahoma City this year, and also been up for three different cups of coffee this year. A path to regular playing time isn’t clear at the moment, but the positional flexibility could lead to enough time at all three spots in the future.

9. Max Pentecost - Blue Jays (Low-A)

It’s hard to judge Pentecost going forward, as he has not appeared in even one game this year behind the plate as he recovers from shoulder surgery. He’s been hitting well (.314/.375/.490), but until he can get behind the plate, we simply do not know whether he will remain at catcher or not.

10. Reese McGuire - Pirates/Blue Jays (AA)

McGuire has spent the year at the AA level, primarily at Altoona before being included in the Francisco Liriano trade and sent to New Hampshire. The question about McGuire has always been whether he will hit enough to be fantasy relevant, as he has never shown very much in-game power. He has a great approach at the plate though (29 BB, 29 K this year), and is a lock to stay behind the plate defensively.

The Next Wave

There are actually a few catching prospects who could jump right into the top 10 at the position in the offseason. The one who has been receiving the most press this year has to be the Indians’ Francisco Mejia (#17 in the preseason), who just recently had a 50 game hitting streak between two Single-A levels. He will easily slot near the top of this list in the offseason.

In terms of draftees, the White Sox’ Zack Collins may or may not be a catcher long term, but his bat could be special there if he does. If he can’t, the bat is good enough that it would still be a positive at first base, but obviously hurts the value a lot.

The Buy and Hold, 2016 Week 19

2016-08-14T10:25:03-04:00

Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Two more graduate from last week’s list as we approach the end of the minor league season.

Graduates This Week: Aaron Judge, Alex Reyes

Reyes was called up by the Cardinals this week, and while it’s not how we had hoped in the rotation, he can still be interesting down the stretch if he’s used like he was on Saturday. He threw three innings, striking out three and recording the win in relief. It’s possible he could end up with some starts eventually instead of Luke Weaver, but Weaver pitched well enough to likely get another start.

The bigger story was the Yankees bringing up OF Aaron Judge following the release of Alex Rodriguez. Judge got the start in right field yesterday, and absolutely destroyed a ball to center field in his first at bat. With Aaron Hicks continuing to struggle, it seems likely that Judge will receive the majority of starts in right field, and could potentially hit 6-8 home runs the rest of the way.

Other Key Call-Ups: Luke Weaver, Reynaldo Lopez, Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler Austin

These rankings are based solely on their potential 2016 value, and do not include take into account their long-term value for dynasty leagues.

1. Yulieski Gourriel, IF, Astros (LW: 1)

The removal of Carlos Gomez from the roster was a surprise this week, and a pretty clear sign that the Astros will make a move that may be unpopular if they believe it will help even a little bit. Gourriel is currently expected to be up on Tuesday, so this may be your last opportunity to grab him.

2. Jose De Leon, RHP, Dodgers (LW: 2)

The Dodgers will have Brett Anderson make his first start of the season today, and hopefully he will be healthy enough to stay there for the rest of the season. However, based on how the injuries have gone thus far, it’s absolutely no sure bet, and De Leon still remains the team’s best option at AAA.

3. Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Red Sox (LW: 3)

Moncada appeared in his first game at third base on Friday after returning from a few days off with an injury. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw is hitting an even .200 with five home runs and 21 strikeouts in the 22 games since the All-Star break, and could be out of luck if the Red Sox continue to make this playoff push.

4. Joey Gallo, 3B/OF, Rangers (LW: 5)
5. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pirates (LW: 6)

The Pirates remain in the midst of another shot at a wild card, and are getting little production since the All-Star break from John Jaso and Sean Rodriguez. Bell hasn’t hit great since returning to AAA (.226 with no home runs), but has shown solid plate discipline (14 walks to 14 strikeouts in 107 PA), and probably is ready for a longer shot.

6. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Nationals (LW: 8)

The Nationals called up Reynaldo Lopez to start on Saturday, who recorded his first major league win on seven innings of one-run ball against the Braves. With Lopez on turn, it wasn’t a surprise he got the call instead of Giolito, but with Giolito not making it out of the 4th inning in his start on the 6th, he didn’t help his case. Even if he ends up coming up in September in relief, he could still potentially provide value as a high strikeout long reliever.

7. Manuel Margot, OF, Padres (LW: 9)
8. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres (LW: 10)
9. Jharel Cotton, RHP, Athletics (LW: NR)

With more starting pitchers hitting the disabled list this week, the A’s are currently running out such luminaries as Andrew Triggs and Ross Detwiler in their rotation. Cotton could get a call up very soon if either of them falter, especially after coming within an out of a perfect game in his last start.

10. Lewis Brinson, OF, Brewers (LW: NR)

The recently traded center fielder has gotten off to a hot start in AAA Colorado Springs, hitting .439 with a home run and four steals over the first 10 games there. Looking forward slightly, the Brewers are currently running Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Keon Broxton out in center field, so he’s not exactly blocked particularly.

The Buy and Hold, 2016 Week 18

2016-08-07T09:00:03-04:00

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Graduates This Week: Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Joe Musgrove, Jose Berrios

It was a busy two weeks with four prospects from the previous list getting the call to the majors. While Bregman has struggled so far, going just 2 for 38 in his first 10 games, but he’s shown himself to be too good of a hitter so far to think that this will continue for too much longer.

Musgrove had a great debut on Monday, striking out 8 batters over 4 1/3 innings pitched. He came on for an injured Lance McCullers, and will take his spot in the rotation today for the Astros.

Other Key Call-Ups: David Dahl, Braden Shipley, Jake Thompson, Orlando Arcia

Dahl has quickly cemented himself into the Rockies’ lineup, hitting .356 with three home runs in 11 games so far, and could be a top 30 outfielder the rest of the way.

It didn’t go well for Thompson in his debut against the Padres, allowing six earned runs and striking out just one batter over 4+ innings pitched. He should be in the rotation the rest of the way, and is still worth

These rankings are based solely on their potential 2016 value, and do not include take into account their long-term value for dynasty leagues.

1. Yulieski Gourriel, IF, Astros (LW: 3)

Gourriel debuted in the GCL earlier this week, and our own Timothy Finnegan was able to see him during one of those games. He’s since moved up to High-A, and has appeared in one game at third base. While Alex Bregman has been playing third base primarily since his call up, he could move elsewhere (likely the outfield) when Gourriel is ready later in the month.

2. Jose De Leon, RHP, Dodgers (LW: 4)

While De Leon was not called on to take a rotation spot now that Bud Norris is on the disabled list, he doesn’t appear to have much left to do at AAA. While his second-to-last start was clearly his worst of the season (1 1/3 innings pitched with 7 earned runs), he’s also had some excellent outings, including a pair of back-to-back 10 K outings right before that. It’s really just a matter of when, not if, with regard to another starting rotation injury for the Dodgers it seems, and De Leon could be up for good once he is called up.

3. Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Red Sox (LW: NR)

While Moncada has not appeared in a game yet at third base in the minors, he has been working at the position, and it could be leading into a call up.

4. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (LW: NR)

Judge returned to the lineup this week after missing nearly a month due to injury, and with Carlos Beltran now in Texas, the only thing between Judge and regular playing time in the majors is Aaron Hicks. Whatever this press conference that the team is having today regarding Alex Rodriguez probably helps slightly as well.

5. Joey Gallo, 3B/OF, Rangers (LW: 5)

Gallo remains a Ranger after not being included in either of the two major trades the team made on deadline day, and while his path to playing time still isn’t particularly clear, he could still provide home runs in large groups with a call up.

6. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pirates (LW: 6)

The Pirates started making moves that point towards a concession of the season, and specifically the trade of Mark Melancon to the Nationals being chief among them. John Jaso has not been good for awhile now, and at this point the Pirates would be better served giving Bell regular at bats in the majors.

7. Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals (LW: 8)

While his new teammate at AAA Luke Weaver may be the next call up, Reyes could have more of an impact than Weaver.

8. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Nationals (LW: NR)

Joe Ross’ recovery from injury isn’t going as initially hoped, and the Nationals will still need a 5th starter next Saturday. If Ross isn’t ready by then, Giolito could be in line for a few starts.

9. Manuel Margot, OF, Padres (LW: 7)

10. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres (LW: 9)

The Padres were able to ship both Melvin Upton and Matt Kemp out of town, but also let it be known when the trades occurred that Margot and Renfroe would both likely end up as September callups rather than during the month of August. They can still provide counting stats when called up, so if you think you’ll need steals, grab Margot instead of Renfroe.

Roto Roundup:Is Jonathan Lucroy Still A Brewer at the End of the Day?

2016-08-01T06:00:03-04:00

Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

A day after vetoing a trade that would have sent him to Cleveland, Jonathan Lucroy remains with the Brewers as of 11 PM EST on Sunday night. It seems like there’s a reasonably good chance though that he is still dealt before the deadline today, with the Rangers looking like the most likely fit. I think that after the failed trade yesterday, the Brewers almost have to move him, or open themselves up to a huge amount of risk going into the offseason.

The rumored package would be headlined by 3B/OF Joey Gallo, and while he wouldn’t likely be the only player headed to Milwaukee, he might be the one who sees consistent playing time down the stretch. The Brewers have been starting Hernan Perez at the hot corner, and while he has been hitting well of late, Gallo would likely get a long look for the rest of the season.

Carlos Beltran on the Move Today?

With the Yankees opting to trade Andrew Miller yesterday, it makes a lot of sense that they could trade potential free agent Carlos Beltran before today’s trade deadline. Beltran helped their negotiating position yesterday, going 2 for 4 with his 22nd home run against Tampa Bay. He’s hitting .304 and slugging .546 on the year, so his bat could definitely help a contender down the stretch. He has played some right field this year, but realistically should probably be at DH a majority of the time.

Roto Roundup

Brian Dozier owners have to be pleased with his performance yesterday: 2 home runs, a double, and three runs scored in the Twins’ win over the White Sox. He’s been great since the All-Star break, hitting .322 with 5 home runs, 11 RBI, and 11 runs scored in 16 games so far. There’s an outside shot he could reach 30 home runs this season, as he’s up to 19 already.

Tyler Skaggs made his second start since returning from the disabled list on Sunday, and was excellent against the Red Sox. He struck out 8 in 5 1/3 shutout innings, and has allowed just seven hits in 12 innings since returning. If he’s still available in your league, he sure looks like the pitcher he was before the injury, and should be picked up in all formats.

Andrew Benintendi went 4-5 with 2 home runs and 2 doubles, 5 runs scored and 5 RBI at AA on Sunday. There has been speculation that he could be called up to take over in left field, or also could be headlining a blockbuster trade. He’s hitting .295/.357/.515 with 8 home runs and 8 stolen bases in 63 games at AA, and sure looks like he’s ready for the next challenge.

I had my doubts when it was announced that the Mariners were moving one of their top prospects, Edwin Diaz, to relief and calling him up immediately. Diaz had shown potential as a starting pitcher at the AA level this year, and I could have seen him debuting as a starter at some point in 2017. The theory in my mind was that the move to the bullpen would kill his fantasy value. So much for that. Diaz struck out three more batters in 1 1/3 innings, and is now up to 49 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched. Whether he ends up as a closer or not may not even be relevant to his fantasy value, as he looks like another elite reliever in the mold of Dellin Betances. If he does end up getting saves, he could be the top option in fantasy.

Roto Roundup: Jonathan Lucroy, Andrew Miller, David Dahl

2016-07-31T11:45:04-04:00

Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

A bit of an abbreviated Roundup this morning with the trade deadline looming.

Indians Attempt to Trade for Lucroy, No-Trade Clause Invoked

With the trade deadline on Monday, the most active team on Saturday and into Sunday morning has turned out to be the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians. Brewers’ catcher Jonathan Lucroy was out of the lineup against the Pirates on Saturday, with the speculation that the All-Star would be traded before the end of the game. While the teams had agreed on a deal, Lucroy has the right to veto a trade to the Indians and did so this morning.

Lucroy would have represented a significant upgrade at catcher for this year for the Indians, who have seen Yan Gomes hit just .165/.198/.313 in 71 games. Gomes is also on the disabled list now after suffering a separated shoulder, and it’s not clear whether he would have returned this year either way. The Indians could now look to see whether a trade for another catcher might make sense, but Lucroy was clearly the top option available.

In terms of Lucroy’s possibility of being traded, the Brewers will need to look again to see about whether they still would rather trade Lucroy for the lesser offers received from teams like the Rangers and Mets, or just hold him until the offseason to try again.

Indians Solidify Back End of Bullpen with Andrew Miller

The Indians weren’t done though, as they officially completed a trade with the Yankees this morning to acquire All-Star reliever Andrew Miller for a package headlined by OF prospect Clint Frazier. I would expect that Miller will be the closer for the Indians, moving Cody Allen into the 8th inning and severely diminishing his value to fantasy owners. It also moves Dellin Betances into the closer’s role in New York, and while I’d be shocked if he was available in your league, if he is, go grab him now.

Pirates Send Melancon to Nationals

Miller wasn’t the only elite reliever traded yesterday though, with the Pirates sending Mark Melancon to the Nationals for Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn. Melancon will step in immediately as the closer for the Nationals, who have seen Jonathan Papelbon struggle of late. For the Pirates, they receive a potential future closer in Rivero, along with another controllable pitcher for the remaining two months of Melancon’s season.

The Pirates did not have a save situation yesterday, and so it’s not entirely clear yet who they will deploy in the closer’s role now that Melancon is gone. If I am speculating on a pickup, it’s probably Neftali Feliz, who has 47 strikeouts in his 40 innings so far this year.

Roto Roundup

With the Rays in the cellar of the AL East, their contingent of young starting pitchers could well turn out to be the best available before Monday’s deadline. While Drew Smyly isn’t necessarily their best candidate given his struggles this year, he did show signs of improvement last night against the Yankees. He went 6 innings, striking out 6 and allowing just 2 earned runs and 5 base runners on the way to his third win of the season. I think he’s still worth a speculative add if he’s available in your league, given the potential for those high strikeout outings.

David Dahl has been installed as the left fielder in Colorado, and hit his second home run yesterday off Bartolo Colon. After just six games he has .984 OPS in 23 at bats, and a .348 batting average. While his average should regress toward the .270-.280 level, the power is real and should also provide stolen bases. He’s definitely looking like he’s up to stay, and is worth an add in all leagues if he is.

Fantasy Rundown

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Moving On Up: Raul A. Mondesi

2016-07-26T16:30:03-04:00

Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

The Royals may have just helped your standing in stolen bases.

In a bit of a surprise move, the Royals announced that they have called up top shortstop prospect Raul A. Mondesi. Mondesi has had an odd year to say the least, as he made his major league debut last year in Game 3 of the World Series, making him the first player to ever do that. Coming into the season, we had Mondesi as our top fantasy prospect in the Royals’ organization:

The son of former Dodger/Blue Jay/Yankee outfielder Raul Mondesi Sr., Raul Adalberto Mondesi will not be putting up big time counting stats like dad did anytime soon. Ranked as the #33 overall prospect by MLB.com, Mondesi is no stranger being on top prospect lists; he has appeared on MLB.com’s top 100 prospects each of the last 3 seasons. Mondesi struggled quite a bit in 2015, as he hit .243 with a BB/K of 17/88 and a horrid OBP of .279. While the talent is undoubtedly there, he hasn’t seen much improvement in his game over the last 3 years from a fantasy standpoint. One thing to note, Mondesi has been much younger than the competition at each of his minor league stops. His development may have been hindered somewhat by the Royals aggressively pushing him through their minor league system. At this point Mondesi is worth way more to the Royals than prospective fantasy owners, but with his baseball pedigree and future potential, he is still worth a roster spot in all leagues with MiLB rosters.

He returned to AA to start this year, and was hitting .250/.304/.462 with five home runs and 11 stolen bases before being suspended for 50 games for testing positive for Clenbuterol. After serving the suspension, he has appeared at High-A, AA, and AAA before today’s call up, and has hit better during that span. In 27 games, he posted a .286/.339/.476 slash line with two home runs and 13 steals.

The Royals are expected to have Mondesi play second base on a regular basis in the majors, and that playing time could make him potentially very interesting. He can potentially provide batting average, but it’s hard to bet on that from a rookie making his first run through the league. More likely, he represents a potential infusion of stolen bases that could potential make an impact in roto leagues down the stretch. Mondesi has shown success in the minors, with an 80% success rate on 118 career attempts, and should be able to translate that at least in part to the majors.

It’s not clear whether Mondesi is up permanently at this point, given that he has played just 14 games above AA, but with the Royals failing to get consistent production at second base, that they made a change wasn’t a surprise. Choosing to bring up Mondesi was, and there have already been questions about how this could impact his development in the long-term.

I would grab him in any league where you are in need of stolen bases, but bear in mind that he may hurt in other categories as he works to adjust to the major leagues.

The Buy and Hold, 2016 Week 16

2016-07-24T10:30:02-04:00

Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

We’re still waiting for Alex Bregman.

Graduates This Week: Tyler Glasnow, Lucas Giolito

Glasnow was called up on Saturday to take his turn in the rotation, but after exiting his start in the 4th inning with a potential shoulder injury, it’s not clear that he’ll make his next start just yet.

It was announced later on Saturday that Lucas Giolito would be starting for the Nationals today, and he will be in line to start on Friday as well if Joe Ross is still not ready to return.

These rankings are based solely on their potential 2016 value, and do not include take into account their long-term value for dynasty leagues.

1. Alex Bregman, SS/OF, Astros (LW: 1)

A tweet of congratulations to Bregman from AAA teammate Kevin Chapman started the rumor that the Astros were finally calling up Bregman. The team even demoted 1B prospect A.J. Reed without a corresponding move shortly after that, leading to further speculation. However, the Astros called up outfielder Preston Tucker instead, leaving Bregman at Fresno.

Of interest this week though was the fact that starting on Wednesday, Bregman has been playing left field almost exclusively. The additional flexibility would give the Astros another way to get him into the lineup, and could lead him to be called up any day now.

2. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox (LW: 4)

I wrote about Benintendi earlier in the week, and on Friday, he made his first career start in left field rather than center. He’s considered an excellent defender in center, so he should be just fine in left field as well. It would be the best opportunity for the Red Sox to find a place for Benintendi to play in the majors right now, and if he’s called up, it will be to play on a regular basis.

3. Yulieski Gurriel, IF, Astros (LW: 6)

The signing of Gurriel was made official this week by the Astros, with the intended plan to send him to AA once he receives a work visa, and be up in the majors within the next month. The only thing that keeps him below Benintendi for me is the fact that the visa could still take a little bit of time, while I think Benintendi will be up before July 31.

4. Jose De Leon, RHP, Dodgers (LW: NR)

It’s been a tough year for the Dodgers’ starting rotation, and had he been healthy at the start of the year, De Leon probably would already have been up in the majors. As Lance Brozdowski wrote earlier in the week, De Leon’s been excellent since returning to the mound, and could be called up when the next starter is needed.

5. Joey Gallo, 3B, Rangers (LW: NR)

The move of Prince Fielder to the disabled list could potentially provide some playing time for Gallo if called up, but the rumors that the Rangers could potentially trade for Chris Sale would be more likely to provide that avenue. With the White Sox rumored to be interested in Gallo, Nomar Mazara, and Jurickson Profar (and possibly even more) in return, Gallo could step in as the everyday third baseman if the White Sox trade Todd Frazier.

6. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pirates (LW: Graduated)

7. Manuel Margot, OF, Padres (LW: 7)

The Padres are rumored to be discussing a trade with the Orioles to send Melvin Upton Jr. to the Orioles, and the most likely beneficiary of playing time could be Margot once that happens. We even saw speculation of this after he was pulled from last night’s game in the 4th inning.

8. Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals (LW: 5)

9. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres (LW: 8)

10. Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins (LW: 10)

I fully expect that before the trade deadline, the Twins will trade at least one starting pitcher and open up that spot for Berrios to finish out the year. I actually think that may be more likely now that Terry Ryan is no longer in charge of the organization.

Dropped Off: Joe Musgrove, RHP, Astros (LW: 9)

The Astros have been getting excellent starting pitching of late, and while Musgrove has also been pitching well, he isn’t exactly needed by the Astros right now, and may not be up until closer to roster expansion.

MLB Prospect Review: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox

2016-07-21T10:00:03-04:00

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

There have been rumors that the Red Sox are considering calling up top outfield prospect Andrew Benintendi. How does he profile for fantasy, and could he help your team this year?

The Red Sox drafted Andrew Benintendi with the 7th overall pick in the 2015 draft, and got him moving quickly. He started his pro career with the Red Sox’ New York-Penn League affiliate, and made short work of it. In Lowell for a little over a month, Benintendi posted a .948 OPS with seven home runs, seven steals, and 25 walks against 15 strikeouts. He finished the year in full-season Low-A, and hit even better (1.011 OPS in 19 games), and came into this season as our #5 fantasy prospect in the Red Sox’ system.

That ranking has turned out to be almost a bit low, as Benintendi has hit even better in his first full season as a pro. He was promoted to AA after just 34 games at High-A, and after a bit of a slow start there, has hit .304/.373/.554 since June 1st. He’s been hitting home runs (six), drawing walks (10.2%), and avoiding strikeouts (just 11%). The only weakness at first glance has been a slightly below-par success rate at stealing bases in the minor leagues (24 out of 36 at the moment), but even that is only one or two more steals from the acceptable 70% range.

Benintendi has been viewed with some skepticism due to his small stature, but he looks more and more like the exception to the rule on this. He stands just 5’10” and weighs 170 lbs, but has shown an excellent hit tool, above-average power and an excellent approach at the plate.

Defensively, Benintendi would be the center fielder of the future for most other organizations. However, with both Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. already locked into at the major league level, Benintendi could very well end up moving over to left field once he is called up to the majors. The question now is when could that occur.

Realistically, Benintendi is probably ready for another promotion based on his production at AA. However, it’s not clear that AAA Pawtucket would be his next stop. The Red Sox have been getting lackluster production in left field all season in part due to injuries (Chris Young, Blake Swihart) and could look to promote Benintendi to help out this year. However, it’s not necessarily a promotion that the Red Sox would be likely to do (from Ben Buchanan at Over the Monster):

The way the Red Sox have traditionally handled their prospects, there would seem to be no chance that Andrew Benintendi would see the majors in 2016, even with the Red Sox in need of a left fielder. And I am absolutely the last person to ever advocate for a Double-A-to-MLB jump. But if there's been a Red Sox prospect in the last decade who at least deserves consideration for that sort of move, Benintendi is the one.

With all that said, I am inclined to think that the Red Sox are going to do whatever they can to make one last deep postseason run with David Ortiz, and so no move may be out of the realm of possibility. While Dan Dombrowski’s style has generally been to trade prospects for upgrades, I don’t know if there’s a clear trade out there for him to make to upgrade left field beyond what Benintendi could provide even if he struggles at first. Even if he did struggle, there’s a very real possibility that the adjustment could come quickly, as it has at each of his previous stops in the minors.

If Benintendi does not get the call this season, he looks like the early favorite to win the starting left field job in 2017, and could potentially turn into a top 20 outfielder in fairly short order. With the capability to provide an elite batting average along with 20 home run / 20 stolen base potential, he looks like the next big thing on his way to Boston.

The Buy and Hold, 2016 Week 15

2016-07-17T09:00:03-04:00

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a new name at the top of this week’s Buy and Hold.

With the trade deadline approaching, we’re fairly likely to see a flurry of callups as teams start to make decisions on where they are headed this season. The A’s could start to see players traded specifically after the decision yesterday to call up Ryon Healy, demote Billy Burns, and inform Coco Crisp and Danny Valencia that their playing time would be cut. They may have been the most recent team to make a set of moves like that, but they will not be the last. While many of the prospects below are on teams in contention, don’t forget that every trade could mean an opportunity for someone else that isn’t owned in your league.

Graduates (Call Up Article)

Mallex Smith - Called up in Week 1

Nomar Mazara - Called up in Week 1

Aaron Blair - Called up in Week 2

Jose Berrios - Called up in Week 3

Sean Manaea - Called up in Week 3

Julio Urias - Called up in Week 8

Tim Anderson - Called up in Week 9

Jameson Taillon - Called up in Week 10

Blake Snell - Called up in Week 10

Cody Reed - Called up in Week 10

A.J. Reed - Called up in Week 11

Trea Turner - Called up in Week 13

Josh Bell - Called up in Week 13

These rankings are based solely on their potential 2016 value, and do not include take into account their long-term value for dynasty leagues.

1. Alex Bregman, SS, Astros (LW:4)

Hope you enjoyed Bregman’s performance at the Futures Game, as it’s likely that he’s in the majors before the end of the month at this point. He’s absolutely destroying the minors, and showed during the Futures Game what he can do at the plate. The signing of Yulieski Gurriel could potentially complicate things, but Bregman’s bat will play regardless of what position he ends up playing for the Astros.

2. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates (LW: 2)

The Pirates have not announced their starting pitchers beyond Sunday at the moment, and with Glasnow scheduled to go on Monday at AAA, I could see him being the call up for Tuesday’s game.

3. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Nationals (LW: Graduate)

The Nationals are going with a four-man rotation out of the break, but will need a starter for Saturday. Giolito started on the 12th, and is currently not scheduled to make another start as of yet, so he could be in line for that start if Joe Ross won’t be ready in time.

4. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox (LW: NR)

The Red Sox’ top draft pick from a year ago, Benintendi has torn through the minors and has been rumored as a potential call up to address their issues in left field. I think it’s actually more likely it happens now that the Red Sox have made their first trade, sending Anderson Espinoza to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz.

5. Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals (LW: NR)

Reyes started the Futures Game, and appears to be pretty close to ready for the majors. He could be up for a spot start here or there, but isn’t clearly lined up to stay without an injury.

6. Yulieski Gurriel, IF, Astros (LW: NR)

The Astros’ newest signee may or may not be added to your league’s database soon, but he’s worth an add on the potential that he gets regular playing time this year. He’ll need some time in the minors since he hasn’t played all year, but he could provide solid production once he is up.

7. Manuel Margot, OF, Padres (LW: 5)

8. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres (LW: 6)

9. Joe Musgrove, RHP, Astros (LW: 7)

10. Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins (LW: NR)

The rumors about a potential trade of Ervin Santana have been growing, and Berrios has been pitching better since returning to the minors after 4 starts. Berrios would be the most likely pitcher to take Santana’s spot in the rotation if it opens up, and would likely be up for good this time.

Dropped Off:

Aaron Judge - Judge is on the disabled list at the moment after spraining his PCL last week, and with him expected to be out for a while, can’t really have the same impact this year.

Jeff Hoffman - He’d be this week’s #11 prospect, but I prefer Berrios to Hoffman for the rest of the season given that Hoffman remains in Coors.

Clint Frazier - With Tyler Naquin deciding that he wants to stay via his production at the plate and Michael Brantley out on a rehab assignment, the likelihood of Frazier being called up soon has dropped significantly.