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NBA DFS: De’Aaron Fox and best/worst DraftKings daily fantasy basketball plays for Thursday, Mar. 25th

Duds and studs. Good and bad plays. We take a look at the past and upcoming NBA games to let you know what’s going on and how to tackle your DraftKings plays.

Atlanta Hawks v Sacramento Kings Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images

Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!

Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate

  • Love: De’Aaron Fox (PG). Great matchup at a sweet discount for the Fox. De’Aaron comes from a 37-point explosion yesterday in which he did virtually nothing other than dropping buckets (37-2-3-2-1 was the line) although that was all this man needed to rack up 50 points. And that means Fox has put up 50 FP in his last two against two bad teams in Cleveland and Atlanta, with Golden State on the schedule next. If this is not one of the most appealing players of the whole slate then I must be on some crazy fumes. Fox has had exactly one bad game in the month of March—29 FP against Philly last Saturday—but other than that he’s averaging a ridiculous 50 DKFP nightly with lines nearing a 30-4-7-1 average. Legit game is legit.
  • Hate: Draymond Green (PF/C). I have legit no idea who coded the algorithm or which game DK is playing these days. Dray is tagged with a season-high $7.7K salary even though he’s put up back-to-back duds last Saturday and Tuesday, reaching a putrid 24 and 33 FP against Memphis and Philly. This would have been his combined best line: 7-9-6-2-2 with 2 TOs for what? 30 FP? Damn, son. Green is far from being the most-expensive play of the slate, that's correct, but he’s missing Curry as much as Golden State as a whole, and it’s showing. Even on the best of nights, he might just give you some 10-10-10, which would be good but not great for the price you’ll be paying.
  • Love: Bam Adebayo (C). Bam has been great all year long without very much of a deviation from his average 42 FP per game this season. He’s actually a virtual lock to hand you his casual 40+ nightly, with the coin landing on the high-upside side more often than not. Bam has been great since the AS snub with a couple of dub-dubs in five games and finishing just one or two blocks short of it in the other three. And he’s doing that in a rather low 24% usage rate and 33 MPG, which speaks volumes of his top-tier efficiency. Portland has the sixth-worst fantasy D of the year, and in the last few games they’ve faced top-of-the-order centers they have struggled at stopping them (KP, KAT, Jokic, and Ayton all had 35+ FP games against them). This is also the lowest salary Bam has had since Dec. 30 of 2020 if we don’t count his $7.9K tag from Sunday—when he put up 54 DKFP. Gotta take advantage of the deal.
  • Hate: Ben Simmons (PG). The Lakers stink and have no warm bodies around the place these days. That being said, it could help Benny had a monster game. That’s where the risk is at with this play. You might be paying top-dollar for a top-5 player... or you might find yourself crying in the corner because Simmons got benched after 25 minutes with Philly up 35 points by halftime. Also, it is not that Ben has been that good of late: the average in March sits a rather low 37 FP per game, and he’s just dropped 32 and 39 FP in his last two outings against the Knicks and Warriors even though he went on to log 38 and 35 minutes. Not liking this play just one bit, as the points went up a bit but the dimes and boards cratered in those last two. Find value elsewhere.
  • Love: RJ Barrett (SF). Believe it or not, Barrett is one of only 17 players putting up a 17-6-3 line on the season. That’s correct. He’s also the second-worst in WS while at it, but that’s a thing for another day. While Barrett seems to be able to doing it all, the truth is that his fantasy prowess comes from his coring, mostly. That, paired with the fact that Washington’s D is giving up the most FP to opposing starting-SF players (35 on average) and also the most actual points (18 PPG) bodes well for Barrett today. Don’t rule out an explosion for RJ taking place against the lowly Wiz, who also have the fourth-worst D overall. Barret is playing even more minutes since the break than earlier this season, averaging a monster 39 MPG these days. His line in the past seven games: 22-7-3-1. It’s never bad to get you some 40 DKFP for a below-$7K price.

What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 11-12 (Mar. 15 to Mar. 21)

  • For some with so strong stat-sheet-stuffing tendencies as Russell Westbrook, it is surprising that he doesn’t top the weekly fantasy leaderboard more often. He finally did during the past seven days and four games he’s played. Russ put up an average of 68 FP while keeping up a 28-12-13-1 line in that span. Not bad, even more considering he dropped the most efficient per-minute mark of the week at 1.75 FP/min.
  • Luka Doncic is the only other player to break the 65-FP barrier, though his contributions were lower all-around with a 35-8-9-1 line. Giannis, Jokic, and Harden all reached 60+ FP on the week.
  • Nikola Jokic tied Russ for the most FP/min (1.75), but he reached that mark averaging four fewer minutes per game, making Russ’ feat more impressive all things considered.
  • Among the 60-FP group of players, Luka was the most “stable” one as he logged a deviation of just 9 FP per game. A little less explosive on the total FP leaderboard, yet virtually a lock to hit 48 FP nightly was Jaylen Brown, who logged a stupidly low 2.2 FP deviation in the past four games.
  • Only Russ and Giannis were able to close the week averaging trip-dubs, although Anteto did so in just three games compared to Westbrook’s four. James Harden and Trae Young dub-dubbed on dimes, while 11 other players did so on points and boards (Jokic and Julius Randle both came just 1.5 APG short of trip-dubbing).
  • Silly cheap values: Moses Brown, Poole, Bullock, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Theis, Len, Lonnie, Satoransky, Danny Green, Grayson Allen, Marcus Morris, Claxton, Looney.
  • A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Joe Ingles, DiVincenzo, Keldon Johnson, Wiggins, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Brown, Holmes, Aaron Gordon, Thad Young, Buddy, Mason Plumlee, Fournier
  • Some very expensive players not doing enough: Trae, LeBron, Sabnois, Tatum, Lowry, Porzingis, Morant, Jarrett Allen, C.J. McCollum
  • Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Poole, Loonie, NAW, THT, Bullock, Patty Mills, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Frank Jackson, Marcus Morris, Moses Brown, Alex Len, Isaiah Stewart, Grayson Allen
  • Cheap threes: Bullock, NAW, Mills, Poole, Devonte’ Graham, BogBog, Jerome, Kleber, Marcus Morris, Otto Porter
  • Cheap boards: Moses Brown, Daniel Theis, Len, Tony Bradley, Markieff Morris, Connaughton, Stewart, Aminu, McGee, Whiteside
  • Cheap dimes: Satoransky, Campazzo, Rondo, THT, Osman, Cam Payne, Theis, Saben Lee, Kenrich Williams, Jerome, Caruso, Cory Joseph, BogBog, Mills
  • Cheap steals: Campazzo, Bullock, Satoransky, Osman, Neto, Jaden McDaniels, Grayson Allen
  • Cheap blocks: Claxton, Moses Brown, Thybulle, Bitadze, Whiteside, Biyombo, NAW, Derrick Jones
  • Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Poole, Frank Jackson, THT, Bullock, Loonie, Moses Brow, Marcus Morris, BogBog

If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!