Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Trae Young (PG). Not long ago, thinking about fading Trae was akin to fading the likes of James Harden or Russell Westbrook: a dumb move, simply put. Trae has had his up and downs through the season, mostly at the start of it when he got into fights with Collins and the Hawks brass/HC. He’s back to being a little bit down, although it must be said that he’s lowered his playing time exiting the AS break, which has impacted his overall numbers. In the last two games, though, he’s back at playing 34 and 38 minutes, and that last game watched Trae go for 28 poops and 5 triples to go with 5 boards, 8 dimes, and a block on top of that against the mighty Clips. Even though he’s been a bit bouncy of late, the $8.7K price is quite low for the upside Young carries. The Hawks played Sacto on Mar. 13 and Young had a sweet 45-FP game to the tune of a 28-1-9-1 performance getting to the free-throw line 16 (!) times and logging a ridiculous 40% usage rate.
- Hate: Anthony Edwards (SG/SF). You know how it goes. LaMelo is injured, has played barely over 50% of the total possible games this season, and is the leading—not by little—ROY candidate at this point through the season. Looking down the leaderboard you could make an argument for both Tyrese Haliburton and Ant Edwards, though they will need to excel ROS. The problem is, Edwards won’t probably start doing so tonight against Dallas. The Mavs are allowing the fourth-fewest FP to players eligible at the SG position (only considering starters) this season, with an average of just 26 fantasy points. That’d be a ridiculously low outcome to pay for, considering Eds comes at $7.6K tonight. Ant has been good of late with an average of 40 FP per game since the break in 7 games played, but he’s down to 36 and 25 FP in his last two against Phoenix and OKC, that last one seeing him log a paltry 16-2-3-1 line. Edwards’ upside comes mostly from scoring, so if he can’t hit the 20+ mark in points he’s always going to struggle in fantasy terms. Not liking this play at all.
- Love: Caris LeVert (SG). I know LeVert has had it a little bit rough since coming back and debuting with Indiana, but he’s starting to get things right while the algorithm has yet to catch up. Just peep at his ultra-low salary of $6.6K. LeVert has played six games already and even in a back-to-back against Miami and Milwaukee last Sunday and Monday. Against those Bucks, LeVert put up his best game as a Pacer with 38 FP and a great return on investment for those who bet on him. The minutes are already above 30 per, and the 19-5-5-2 line was neat. Adding a more than healthy 14+ FGA a night, a shooting percentage that should keep getting up (just 38% in the last six), and a usage rate that will sit at 25% at the very least. Great flier to take with today on the cheap against a middle-of-the-pack D in Detroit’s.
- Hate: Kyle Lowry (PG). This could be the last game of Lowry donning Raps’ threads. That’s weird to type, believe me. It sucks that this man will have to play his last game for Toronto in Tampa Bay, but here we are... Lowry has been good since coming back from the great, and given his salary has stayed relatively “low” never topping $8.7K, he’s been able to return some good value. Lowry is averaging 36 DKFP in the last three, though, which isn’t that incredible considering he’s playing 38+ MPG. I think everybody will be playing for Kyle tonight, but I also think that might not turn out well for him. In games Lowry has shot 15+ FGA since the start of March he’s averaging around 40 FP and shooting just 34% of those shots. When he’s been forced to finish more than 25% of possessions, he also sucked a bit with similar averages. I hope he puts on a show and drops 70 points on the Nuggets, but I’m not convinced that’d be the case.
- Love: Malik Monk (SG). I usually write about players tagged with salaries between $6K and the most expensive one, but this caught my attention today. Monk is entering this slate at a stupidly low $4.3K. Remember, Melo just underwent surgery on his wrist, will miss the remainder of the season, and for what concerns us today, won’t play against Houston. That means the Hornets will ride the Rozier/Graham backcourt as their starters, with not a lot more than Monk as the rotational piece to cover for those two when they hit the pine. If you paid any attention to that last sentence, you already know the Rockets are Charlotte’s opponent today. Monk is averaging 20 FP per game, a low amount, but projects to 1.5x times that at 30 at the very least. Monk already played 27 minutes a couple of days ago, his playing time will keep growing, and I just refuse to believe he’ll shoot 33% from the floor two games in a row. Bargain with a potentially massive ROI.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 11-12 (Mar. 15 to Mar. 21)
- For some with so strong stat-sheet-stuffing tendencies as Russell Westbrook, it is surprising that he doesn’t top the weekly fantasy leaderboard more often. He finally did during the past seven days and four games he’s played. Russ put up an average of 68 FP while keeping up a 28-12-13-1 line in that span. Not bad, even more considering he dropped the most efficient per-minute mark of the week at 1.75 FP/min.
- Luka Doncic is the only other player to break the 65-FP barrier, though his contributions were lower all-around with a 35-8-9-1 line. Giannis, Jokic, and Harden all reached 60+ FP on the week.
- Nikola Jokic tied Russ for the most FP/min (1.75), but he reached that mark averaging four fewer minutes per game, making Russ’ feat more impressive all things considered.
- Among the 60-FP group of players, Luka was the most “stable” one as he logged a deviation of just 9 FP per game. A little less explosive on the total FP leaderboard, yet virtually a lock to hit 48 FP nightly was Jaylen Brown, who logged a stupidly low 2.2 FP deviation in the past four games.
- Only Russ and Giannis were able to close the week averaging trip-dubs, although Anteto did so in just three games compared to Westbrook’s four. James Harden and Trae Young dub-dubbed on dimes, while 11 other players did so on points and boards (Jokic and Julius Randle both came just 1.5 APG short of trip-dubbing).
- Silly cheap values: Moses Brown, Poole, Bullock, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Theis, Len, Lonnie, Satoransky, Danny Green, Grayson Allen, Marcus Morris, Claxton, Looney.
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Joe Ingles, DiVincenzo, Keldon Johnson, Wiggins, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Brown, Holmes, Aaron Gordon, Thad Young, Buddy, Mason Plumlee, Fournier
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Trae, LeBron, Sabnois, Tatum, Lowry, Porzingis, Morant, Jarrett Allen, C.J. McCollum
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Poole, Loonie, NAW, THT, Bullock, Patty Mills, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Frank Jackson, Marcus Morris, Moses Brown, Alex Len, Isaiah Stewart, Grayson Allen
- Cheap threes: Bullock, NAW, Mills, Poole, Devonte’ Graham, BogBog, Jerome, Kleber, Marcus Morris, Otto Porter
- Cheap boards: Moses Brown, Daniel Theis, Len, Tony Bradley, Markieff Morris, Connaughton, Stewart, Aminu, McGee, Whiteside
- Cheap dimes: Satoransky, Campazzo, Rondo, THT, Osman, Cam Payne, Theis, Saben Lee, Kenrich Williams, Jerome, Caruso, Cory Joseph, BogBog, Mills
- Cheap steals: Campazzo, Bullock, Satoransky, Osman, Neto, Jaden McDaniels, Grayson Allen
- Cheap blocks: Claxton, Moses Brown, Thybulle, Bitadze, Whiteside, Biyombo, NAW, Derrick Jones
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Poole, Frank Jackson, THT, Bullock, Loonie, Moses Brow, Marcus Morris, BogBog
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!