Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: John Collins (PF/C). With Clint Cap hitting the injury report and tagged as questionable for tonight’s game, it will all be about John Collins exploiting Houston’s lack of bodies in the paint. And it is not that he needs much help to thrive, anyways. While JoCo has dropped his numbers a bit of late, his last match against Cleveland a couple of days ago was one to witness. In just 31 minutes on the floor, this man put up a 22-12-1 line, swatted a shot, hit 4-of-5 freebies, and finished as a borderline top-15 player in the slate returning a sky-high ROI to those betting on him. The price is still ridiculously still, and Collins can do it all from manning the paint to stretching the floor. Pencil a dub-dub in tonight for Trae’s main target on offense.
- Hate: Jarrett Allen (C). Remember when Jarrett Allen seemed like the missing piece of these Cavaliers and was putting up nightly 40-FP performances in the middle of February? Ah, good old days those ones... Lately, though, Allen has just stunk. It’s been five games in a row starting, playing 32+ minutes a night, yet falling short of reaching even 34 FP in any of them... Yikes, the slump. Allen has gone from a 20-10 lock to a middling 11-10 player that has now strung two games of <10 points. That is stupidly bad for a big man like Allen, full stop. From Feb. 27 to Sunday’s game, Allen’s salary had bottomed at a quite-high $8.2K and is now below $8K for the first time in two weeks. Even then, the Fro is doing so little that he’s a fade to my eyes.
- Love: Zion Williamson (PF/C). Every time I’m reminded of LeBron’s streak of games scoring 10+ points I just can’t believe it. Never gets old and always surprises me. It’s currently sitting at 1,033 after yesterday’s game against GSW, and it started all the way back in January 2007. Bonkers. I’m telling you because Zion Williamson has scored at least 12 points in all of the games he’s played this season, and his current streak of hitting 10+ points is at 40 games already starting last August. I am legit invested in checking Zion’s lines daily only because of this. Seriously. This man is a bullying machine and I’m sorry but he can’t be stopped. Sure, three games it’s been with Willi getting to a short 31, 32, and 36 FP, but he’s still averaged 1.02, 1.81, and 1.09 FP/min in those four, logged an average 24-4-2 line, shot 69% from the floor, and scored 31-of-49 freebies while committing just 5 combined turnovers. Can’t miss with Zion.
- Hate: Zach LaVine (SG). Zachary is starting to turn into a too volatile of a play for my liking these days. Peep his fantasy scores in the last seven games he’s played: 39, 30, 44, 54, 33, 51, 28. That’s a bouncy player there. He’s been able to drop 35 pops as he’s been able to fall to just 15 in his last match Sunday against Toronto. The minutes have stayed the same at around 34 with virtually no change in that span, yet the results have been all around the place. The three-point shooting is an all-or-nothing proposition (he either hits one trey or 4+, with no middle ground), the turnovers are insane at 4.5 per game in the last seven and never fewer than 3, and the boards are also down from his season-average mark. At his price, and considering OKC has a stingy D, I’d have to pass on Zach.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 11-12 (Mar. 1 to Mar. 14)
- Man, was that a long-ass break or what? I’m cooking the weekly recap through the past couple of weeks, but that doesn’t mean the span contained a ton of games due to the AS weekend taking place in the middle of it.
- The last time we checked, if you remember, it was Giannis with 65 FP who led all NBA players on that leaderboard. Well, turns out we have a new leader in James Harden, who put up a ridiculous 67 DKFP on average among players with 4+ games played in the past two weeks. Hard to see Harden getting MVP-love, but this fool has been absolutely insane since moving northeast to Brooklyn.
- As impossible as it sounds, Nikola Jokic also managed to cross the 60-DKFP barrier even though he played 5 games. Jokic closed the last couple of weeks averaging 62 FP himself, an absolutely crazy mark.
- Harden’s dominance also popped in his line through the four games he played: 26-11-12-2-1 was his average performance in those while logging some 41 MPG. Say what!? A ton of players finished that two-week span dub-dubbing, but none other than James trip-dubbed. Jokic was close at 30-12-9, same as Giannis with a 27-10-8 and Sabonis with his 17-10-8.
- The ridiculous MPG number of Harden (40.8) killed his per-minute fantasy production. Giannis kept that no. 1 spot with 1.71 FP/min in 34.3 MPG throughout the span, followed by Jokic, Harden, Westbrook, and Butler.
- Jimmy Butler was the most stable among top-tier performers with a deviation of just 6 DKFP in his 4 games played while averaging 57 FP. His scores read 51, 62, 52, and 62. Not bad.
- Silly cheap values: Kira Lewis, Rodney McGruder, Cameron Payne, Jaxson Hayes, Abdel Nader, Robert Williams, Nicolas Claxton, Jaylen Nowell, Cory Joseph, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Stewart, Furkan Korkmaz, Dario Saric, Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gobert, Carmelo Anthony, Josh Richardson, Buddy Hield, Robert Covington, Danilo Gallinari, Maxi Kleber, Will Barton, Ja Morant
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Bradley Beal, Karl-Anthony Towns, Julius Randle, Zach LaVine, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Khris Middleton, Jamal Murray, Jarrett Allen, Jaylen Brown, Dejounte Murray
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Jordan Poole, Kevin Porter, Nowell, Saric, Korkmaz, Reggie Jackson, Ellington, Pokusevski, Mykhailiuk, Shamet, Brook Lopez, McGruder
- Cheap threes: Ellington, Mykhailiuk, Nowell, Shamet, Poole, Korkmaz, Reggie Jackson, Forbes, Kleber, Pritchard, Poku
- Cheap boards: Poku, Moses Brown, Tristan Thompson, Zubac, Baynes, Stewart, Kleber, Markieff Morris, Connaughton, Winslow, Vanderbilt
- Cheap dimes: Kevin Porter, Mykhailiuk Satoransky, Payne, Saen Lee, Reggie Jackson, Raul Neto, Mannion, Chasson Randle, Rondo
- Cheap steals: Thybulle, Wagner, Patton, Mykhailiuk, Kira, McGruder, Cory Joseph, Kevin Porter, Mannion, Nader
- Cheap blocks: Brook Lopez, Patrick Beverley, Vanderbilt, Nicolas Claxton, McGee, Patton, Jaxson Hayes, Biyombo, Stewart, Naz Reid
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Tristan Thompson, Saric, Poole, McGruder, Cory Joseph, Korkmaz, Shamet, Nowell, Reggie Jackson, Brook Lopez, Ellington
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!