Race: South Point 400
Date: September 26th
Venue: Richmond Raceway
2020 Winner: Brad Keselowski (2:56:42)
Richmond International Raceway — At 0.75 miles this asphalt track is among the older on the circuit (1946). It runs on the shorter side, much like Bristol—meaning there will be trading of paint and anyone can emerge—but it’s in an odd space. It’s not half a mile like Martinsville, but it’s not a full mile like Dover and Phoenix, giving it a special speed to brake dynamic that is uniquely Richmond. It is interesting amongst the many oval-shaped courses as this one is more of a “D.” Its banks run 14 degrees at the highest with an 8 degree tilt on the front and 2 degrees on the back.
Joey Logano. (seventh selection this year) – This is your lock, plain and simple. Two wins in his last four races here and he’s finished in the top 10 in 10 of 11 races here.
Kyle Larson (seventh selection this year) — He was the winner earlier this year at Las Vegas and is holding on strong at the top of the leaderboard. This season, even when he’s struggled it’s mostly been finishes at 20—rarely do you see a finish outside of 30, which is the opposite of what used to be Kyle Larson.
High Risk/High Reward
Brad Keselowski (seventh selection this year) — Brad was THE man here from 2016-2019. He hasn’t been bad the last few years, but Logano has taken over. That said, I still think Brad is the 2nd best option here. The only part to feel apprehensive about is Brad has three finishes outside the top 20 in his last seven races.
William Byron (seventh selection this year) William has had a myriad of rough finishes lately, including a handful of finishes outside 30 and very few top 10 finishes since his midsummer successes. His last three finishes here were two top 10’s and one 38th, where he had some car problems.
The Dark Horse
Ryan Newman (sixth selection this year). Ryan Newman isn’t a top 10 lock but he has consistently finished among the top 20 at Las Vegas and we should expect the same this year.
Fun Fact: The first three years of this race have seen three separate drivers and three separate manufacturers win.
Favorite: Average Finish 13th (35th Percent)
High Risk/High Reward: Average Finish 17th (43rd Percent)
Dark Horse: Average Finish 18th (47th Percent)