MLB DFS: Best/worst plays for Monday, June 28th

Figuring out pitching has been a hassle this season in MLB DFS, as some of the league’s best arms have disappointed at times. On the other side of things, using pitchers in the bargain range can put you in treacherous waters due to the volatility you get from cheap arms. With that information in mind, Monday’s slate gives us a few top-notch arms to choose from. As of this moment, the only game with weather issues is the showdown between the Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox, but since I’m not a weather expert, make sure to pay attention to the ever changing weather conditions during the day.

Pitching

Favorite pitcher: Freddy Peralta ($10,500) vs. Chicago Cubs

Last Tuesday, I had Freddy Peralta listed as my favorite pitcher in his start versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. Peralta delivered with a season-high 34.5 points on DraftKings as he struck out 10 batters. The 25-year-old pitcher has been masterful this season, with a 36.4% strikeout rate, a .192 BABIP, and a 0.86 WHIP. After facing a Diamondbacks squad that has been lifeless to RHP, Peralta faces the Chicago Cubs on Monday. While Chicago has the fourth-highest ISO to RHP in the last month, they also have the highest strikeout rate (29.6%) and lowest OBP (.261) to RHP in that same time frame. Among the high-priced options at pitcher, Peralta feels like the safest bet to return value.

Second-favorite pitcher: Zack Greinke ($9,800) vs. Baltimore Orioles

I could easily list Trevor Bauer as my second-favorite pitcher, but the San Francisco Giants have quietly posted the highest ISO and second-highest wRC+ to RHP in the past 30 days. Even though Zack Greinke doesn’t possess anywhere near the upside that Bauer does, he has a WAY more favorable matchup. Greinke isn’t the pitcher he once was, as he’s recording the lowest K/9 of his career since the 2005 season. What Greinke doesn’t bring in the strikeout department he makes up for by limiting hard contact, permitting a positive 27.7% hard-contact rate this season. The experienced right-handed pitcher gets the Baltimore Orioles on Monday, who have the third-lowest marks in AVG and wRC+ to RHP in last month, plus they have the lowest hard-contact rate to RHP in the same timespan.

Least-favorite pitcher: Dylan Bundy ($8,200) @ New York Yankees

At the beginning of the season, it looked as if Dylan Bundy was poised to put together another stellar year with the Los Angeles Angels. The previous optimism has subsided as the season has progressed though, with him allowing 2+ ER in five out of his last seven starts. There are reasons to be alarmed with Bundy, including his career-low 21.7% strikeout rate and his career-worst 9.3% barrel rate thus far. Even though this year’s New York Yankee team has been inconsistent, they are showing life recently. The Yankees are tied for the seventh-highest ISO and they’ve hit 28 home runs versus RHP in the last month. Not to mention, a handful of New York’s batters are familiar with Bundy from his tenure with the Baltimore Orioles.

Hitting

Favorite team to stack: Houston Astros vs. RHP Thomas Eshelman

What a rough way to get thrown into the fray if you’re Thomas Eshelman. The Orioles have needed Eshelman to make spot starts recently due to injuries in the rotation, and the first two teams he’s faced are the Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros. Following a bout with the Astros last week, Eshelman will face them again on Monday, but this time he’ll be the road starter. While it’s early to use Eshelman’s numbers this season, his dismal 10.3% strikeout rate and his eye-popping 58.1% fly ball rate are two things to keep in mind. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Carlos Correa all have a 130+ wRC+ to RHP this season. I’d make sure you mix in Myles Straw, Chas McCormick, and Abraham Toro to get exposure to Houston’s entire lineup.

Second-favorite team to stack: New York Yankees vs. RHP Dylan Bundy

I was torn on whether to list the Yankees or the Angels as my second-favorite stack at first glance. While Los Angeles could have some success versus Michael King, New York has more home run potential in their lineup. I’ve already spoken about the woes that Bundy has endured this season, so let me explain why Monday could be a productive game for the Yankees. New York has Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup, DJ LeMahieu and Gary Sanchez have been hitting their stride recently, and Aaron Judge is still swinging a good bat, making the Yankees an intriguing team to stack on a nine-game slate. Miguel Andujar, Rougned Odor, and Gio Urshela are other pieces to use from New York.

Favorite one-off: Jared Walsh ($4,400) @ RHP Michael King

There’s a chance that I have a few lineups on Monday that have an Angels stack in them. But if there is one player I’m targeting as a one-off in my lineups it is Jared Walsh. Walsh has crushed RHP to the tune of .339/.413/.667 lines this season. In just the past month, in 72 plate appearances against RHP, Walsh has five homers, nine doubles, and 12 RBI with a .317 batting average. The second-leading home run getter on the Angels squares off with King on Monday, who has a 2.57 HR/9 to lefties at home. King is also registering a 42.1% fly ball rate at home versus LHB, making Walsh worthy of consideration on Monday.

Second-favorite one-off: Akil Baddoo ($3,000) @ RHP Eli Morgan

The Detroit Tigers have been like watching a horror movie, but Akil Baddoo is like that one scene in the movie that captured your attention. Baddoo has been fantastic in his debut season in the major leagues, notching five home runs, 22 RBI, and eight stolen bases in 59 appearances. Of his five home runs, all five of them have come against RHPs. He’s also slashing .313/.403/.576 to RHP this season, along with a .265 ISO. While Eli Morgan showed potential in his last start for the Cleveland Indians (striking out nine batters), he’s surrendered 3+ ER in all three of his starts this season. With Baddoo possibly batting leadoff, he’s a perfect bargain option in the outfield on Monday.

What pitchers and stacks are you guys intrigued by on Monday?