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MLB DFS: Best/worst plays for Tuesday, June 22nd

Skyler analyzes Tuesday’s expansive 14-game slate that features a few notable pitchers.

Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images

There were only six games available for us to play on Monday’s MLB DFS slate, making certain teams and pitchers extremely chalky. Playing DFS on chalky days can be risky, as it is tough to be contrarian with a limited number of games to choose from. Following a slate full of chalk, we now have a 14-game slate to decrypt on Tuesday, with plenty of marquee names taking the mound. During my early peek for Tuesday, the options are endless at multiple spots, so sit back and enjoy your first cup of coffee as I discuss who I’m liking on DraftKings.

Pitching

Favorite pitcher: Freddy Peralta @ Arizona Diamondbacks ($10,000)

We have a few high-priced arms that I’m liking on Tuesday, and the first guy that I’m looking to insert into my lineups is Freddy Peralta. Peralta is one of the major reasons why the Milwaukee Brewers are vying for the NL Central right now. In Peralta’s eight starts for the Brewers, he’s surrendered two or fewer runs. He’s notching an impressive .197 BABIP and a 0.87 WHIP this season. The strikeout-throwing right-hander has a plus-matchup on Tuesday versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona has been lifeless recently, producing the seventh-highest strikeout rate, the fourth-worst batting average, and the lowest ISO to RHP in the past month.

Second-favorite pitcher: Zack Wheeler vs. Washington Nationals ($10,200)

Zack Wheeler will be taking the mound against Max Scherzer in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair. While Scherzer is capable of delivering a stellar outing, he’s returning from the injured list, so I’m siding with Wheeler on DraftKings for $600 cheaper. Wheeler has a career-best 11.02 K/9 this season, along with a 31.6% strikeout rate and a 0.93 WHIP. The Washington Nationals, who Wheeler faces on Tuesday, have the 13th-highest strikeout rate and the seventh-worst wRC+ to RHP in the last 30 days. The hard-throwing right-hander has also posted 24+ points on DraftKings in his last five starts.

Third-favorite pitcher: Lucas Giolito @ Pittsburgh Pirates ($9,400)

There are too many arms to name on Tuesday, but another pitcher I’m liking is Lucas Giolito. In his last seven starts, Giolito has allowed at least one home run in six of them. Nevertheless, he’s still managed to record 21+ points in all but two of those starts. While keeping the ball within play has been tough for Giolito recently, he draws the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh’s offense, despite not striking out often, have the lowest ISO to RHP this season. Plus, the good news for Giolito is that his fastball velocity has been near his career average more often in his most recent starts.

Least-favorite pitcher: Jorge Lopez vs. Houston Astros ($4,500)

Even with the slate being loaded with possible pitchers to target, there is a common theme taking place in recent days. Targeting pitchers on the Baltimore Orioles as they face the Houston Astros has worked out recently, and I don’t envision that changing on Tuesday. Jorge Lopez is the next pitcher tasked with facing Houston’s hard-hitting lineup. Lopez has a 1.49 WHIP and a .317 BABIP this season for the Orioles, to go along with his 1.80 HR/9. I don’t believe things are going to get any better for Lopez as he takes on the Astros inside the confines of Camden Yards.

Second least-favorite pitcher: Jordan Lyles vs. Oakland Athletics ($5,100)

As much as I want to target Kyle Freeland on Tuesday, he’s playing in a pitcher-friendly park, and the Seattle Mariners aren’t exactly a team that smashes southpaws. While I’ll still have pieces from the Mariners, my second least-favorite pitcher is Jordan Lyles. Lyles has been one of my favorite pitchers to target this season, as he’s sporting a massive 44.1% hard-hit rate and 2.02 HR/9. Even though the Oakland Athletics had a slow start versus RHP to begin the season, they own the sixth-highest wRC+ and the fourth-highest on-base percentage to RHP in the past month.

Hitting

Favorite team to stack: Houston Astros @ RHP Jorge Lopez

Once again, I’m going right back to the well with the Astros on Tuesday as they square off with the Orioles again. Lopez hasn’t had much luck in limiting hard contact, and Houston’s bats are getting even hotter (if that’s possible) in recent weeks. The main targets are Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, and Carlos Correa. But if you’re looking to save some salary while also getting exposure to the Astros, then Chas McCormick, Myles Straw, and Abraham Toro all provide salary relief as long as they’re confirmed in the lineup.

Second-favorite team to stack: Oakland Athletics @ RHP Jordan Lyles

The Athletics seem to be finding their groove against RHP in the past month or so. In the last 30 days, Oakland has six guys who have seen 40+ plate appearances to RHP that all have a wRC+ of over 100. Those six players would be Mitch Moreland, Elvis Andrus, Matt Olson, Tony Kemp, Matt Chapman, and Sean Murphy. Mark Canha and Seth Brown are also worth considering when using the Athletics despite their lackluster numbers to RHP in recent weeks.

Favorite one-off: Manuel Margot ($2,700) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Finding cheap one-offs can aid in fitting in some of the expensive pitching on Tuesday’s slate. If you’re looking for a cheap one-off in the outfield, look no further than Manuel Margot of the Tampa Bay Rays. Margot will face Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been struggling for the Boston Red Sox this season. There are signs of Rodriguez getting things figured out at some point this year, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have bats against him. Margot has accrued a .960 OPS and a .250 ISO in his 42 plate appearances versus LHP in the last month. He’s also registering an impressive 7.1% strikeout rate in that same span.

Second-favorite one-off: J.P. Crawford ($3,700) vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

As I was saying earlier in the article, I would love to use a full Seattle stack against Freeland. However, the Mariners aren’t a team that excels versus lefties, and the venue isn’t one that has attributed to a ton of runs. That being said, I will have some shares of J.P. Crawford, who has surprisingly been lighting up left-handed pitchers recently. Over the course of his last 50 plate appearances against southpaws, Crawford has a .340 batting average, six extra-base hits (including two HR), nine RBI, and only eight strikeouts. At a loaded position like shortstop, Crawford could be a nice low-owned choice as he will likely bat leadoff.