Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at Fake Teams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Julius Randle (PF/C). First things first: it is absolutely impossible to know what the hell will happen tonight and tomorrow when it comes to who will play, who will rest, who will log big minutes, or who will be sent to the bench at the end of the first quarter for the remainder of the game. With that clear, Randle should be one of the most valuable plays of the day. He’s expensive as hell, I know, but he’s also one of the very few players in a team still playing for something in trying to get to the no. 4 seed in the East and avoid facing Milwaukee in the first round. It’s going to be hard and Atlanta has to flop and drop its last game, but we’ll see. Also, Charlotte is fighting for the no. 8 seed down the standings, so the competition will be there and shouldn’t turn into a resting-prone blowout. The back-to-back 49+ FP performances Julius has put together against LAL and SAS in the last four days also bode well for him entering this one, as he’s been out there making voters sure he is the true MIP of the Year.
- Hate: Anthony Davis (PF/C). The Lake Show, and Anthony Davis for that matter, on the other hand... Call me crazy but I’m not feeling this one. The Lakers are facing a tough Indiana squad that has its best player in, precisely, biggie Domantas Sabonis. And man, he’s been balling of late. Davis is questionable for tonight’s game, and although LA can still get out of the play-in it’d take a miracle and a half. Looking at the wider picture, Los Angeles should already be thinking in making it out of the play-in by actually winning either the first or the second game (if they lose the first one), and go from there. It’d be dumb to lose any of AD/LeBron to injury in a silly night in which they are playing for barely a thing and depending on Portland’s result against Denver on Sunday (which in turn depends on Denver’s plans and whether they want to face Portland or Dallas). Too many calculations surrounding this play for me to consider it a safe one. Passing.
- Love: Terry Rozier (PG/SG). Back to that NYK vs. CHA game, definitely one with the highest stakes. Who better than Scary Terry to put a scare on New York, lock them into the no. 6 seed, and all of that while helping the Hornets keeping that not-great-not-bad-either no. 8 seed? Give me Rozier all day for this one. This play is not risk-free, mind you, and maybe we get upset when all is said and done, but Rozier has everything to be the man putting on a show and murdering the Knicks hopes at avoiding a tough first-round foe. Roz had a great three-game run of 44, 59, and 38 FP before dropping down to 25 two days ago against the Clips. That’s Rozier, and that’s what I mean. He went for 43 pops (7 treys) last Sunday but could score just 10 points against the Clips last Thursday. The ceiling is so high and the salary so reasonable that I can smell that tasty ROI coming our way after banking on Rozier.
- Hate: Zach LaVine (SG). This is not a blurb hating on Zacharias LaVine. Far from it. Only look at that matchup and—at the time of this writing—the rumors saying that the Nets Big 3 will be out there on the floor for today’s game against the underperforming Bulls. Obviously, the Nets won’t risk a goddam thing when it comes to Kyrie/KD/Harden and their health, but that doesn’t mean they won’t mollywhop the hell out of Chicago’s ass. LaVine will try, I don’t have any doubt about that, and odds are he has a great game. Also, BKN bread and butter is offense and not much defense, but I’m really thinking the trio will try to make a statement just before the postseason to announce themselves as the true no. 1 contender, standings be damned. 33 DKFP for ZLV in his last outing two days ago against the Raps even though he logged 34 minutes on the court with a 24-5-2 line. Not bad, definitely not great when it comes to ROI.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 20 (May. 3 to May. 9)
- Is there any point in updating this section every Monday anymore? A month a half, brothers and sisters. A month and a half of weeks—six, that is—with Russ leading all fantasy players in DK daily slates. It’s just insane. Russell Westbrook closed last week averaging a ridiculously high 78 FPG, which is 15 more fantasy points than the second-best player of the week. Say what!? 22-17-18-1 line on the week through 4 GP and 42 MPG. Bananas.
- Domantas Sabonis put up 63 DKFP while Steph Curry wrapped it up at 60 FP, the only two other players reaching that mark. Too bad for them, none hit the trip-dub average on the week as Dom fell 0.2 APG short of it. Cold world.
- Obviously, nobody was going to beat Russ on a per-minute basis even though he logged the highest MPG mark of the week. That’s what happens when you average a freaking 78 FPG... Russ led all players with a 1.88 FP/min with Curry second at 1.78 and Embiid third down with 1.71.
- Only Russ put up a week-long trip-dub. What a surprise. Sabonis Jr. finished close with a 27-13-9 line, followed by Draymond’s 9-9-11. No other player came even remotely close to pulling the feat off.
- Silly cheap values: Kenyon Martin Jr., Diallo, Dwight Powell, Gallinari, Hayes, Brooks, Vanderbilt, Bane, DaQuan Jeffries, Rivers, Mykhailiuk, Campazzo, Kenrich Williams, Hampton, Seth Curry, DiVincenzo, Moe Harkless
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Delon Wright, Kelly Olynyk, Fournier, Mo Bamba, Bledsoe, Hardaway Jr., Hachimura, VanVleet, Tate
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Luka, KAT, AD, Tatum, Randle, LaVine, Paul George, Adebayo, Gobert, Booker, Kawhi, Middleton, Capela, DeRozan, Ingram, KPJr., Dejounte Murray
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Brooks, Okoro, Seth, Niang, Rivers, Ariza, Bane, Caruso, Hayes, Payne, Lamb, Forbes, Bertans, Svi, Poole, KCP, Moe, Mulder
- Cheap threes: Brooks, Niang, Mulder, Seth, Rivers, Forbes, Danny Green, Bertans, Lamb, Bane, McLemore
- Cheap boards: Howard, Kanter, Dwight Powell, Clarke, Vanderbilt, Biyombo, Looney, Hayes, Reid, Zeller, Gillespie, Connaughton, Gibson, Cauley-Stein
- Cheap dimes: Rondo, Satoransky, Caruso, Saben Lee, Seth, Dwight Powell, Wanamaker, Aaron Holiday, Maxey, Brooks, Rivers, Monk
- Cheap steals: Vanderbilt, Thybulle, Danny Green, Rivers, Brooks, DaQuan Jeffries, Svi, Bembry, Thornwell, Ariza, CarusoDeck, Moe, Patrick Williams
- Cheap blocks: Hayes, Taj, Dwight Powell, Bitadze, Thybulle, Damian Jones, Gafford, Biyombo, Justin Holiday, Rudy Gay, Robin Lopez, Vanderbilt, Cauley-Stein
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Hayes, Forbes, Seth, Reid, McDermott, Nian, DaQuan, Moe, Rivers, Brooks, Aaron Holiday
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!