Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: LaMelo Ball (PG). What’s wrong with the algorithm? Miles Bridges said it yesterday on Twitter: “No Brandon but he ROY”. Man, what a disgrace of franchises those in Minny and San Fran passing on Melo in favor of stupid Edwards and Wiseman. LOL. LaMelo is surely balling, his salary remains low, and it makes no sense to fade it any day. The kid was put in the starting lineup for the first time on Feb. 1 because of injury-related issues affecting the Hornets squad, and that was it. Not once has he hit the bench again since then, and why would he? These are his past five FP tallies: 41, 41, 42, 49, 60. My dawg. The kid is dropping an average 23-5-7-2 line these days, he’s shooting some great 52 percent from the floor on a healthy 15 FGA diet, and he’s hit 1+ trey in his last 15 games (his average in that span is up at 2.8 3PG, though). Crazy great play, this ROY.
- Hate: Ben Simmons (PG/SF). Most folks will look at Benny’s game log and rush to DK to add him to their lineups. Makes sense at first sight, considering Simmons put up his best game of the year and a career-performance against Utah just a couple of weeks ago when he reached a ridiculous 75 DKFP... with Joel Embiid out and logging a freaking high 39% usage rate. There you have it. Can’t write it any clearer. Simmons had the game of his life, scored 42 pops, finished this close to trip-dubbing (42-9-12), shot the rock 26 times (season-high was 15...), and went to the line 13 times (dropped 12 freebies), but all of that was because JoJo wasn’t around and Philly had to feed him all he could eat and then some. Is that happening again? No, sir. Can Simmons get to some 40 FP? Maybe, but he’s averaged 37 in his last four, and Embiid should be back with the chance of Tobi also being available.
- Love: Enes Kanter (C). Kan Play Kanter. That’s the new beat Enes is rapping to these days. Kanter has been dropping above-average FP/min marks for five straight games and he’s done so in nine of his past 10 matches. Seriously. Other than a stinker against New Orleans (11-4-1), the rest of his games since Feb. 11 have yielded a baseline of 13-14 dub-dubbing line. Kanter isn’t playing more than around 30 minutes a night, but that’s more than enough for him to get to those double-double-digit marks. The usage is low, but the efficiency is superb and for a biggie on a steep discount because the algorithm is dumb, you can do much worse to fill your last lineup slots.
- Hate: Rudy Gobert (C). Hating on this game seems to be the cool thing today. Nah, not really, it is just the way to go. Gob was turned into mush by second-year MAN Zion, and all the Baguette could do was bitching to the refs about how he was getting demolished on a play-to-play basis. Williamson is no joke, and he’s a mountain of a kid, but JoJo is not Manute Bol either, if you know what I mean. Gob had a rough time against an Embiid-less Sixers the last time they met putting up just 30 FP in 32 minutes and missing on dub-dubbing (11-9-2-1-2 was the line, with just 3 FGA), so I’m not trusting Rudy tonight even just one bit.
- Love: Brandon Ingram (SF/PF). Zion is shiny, and the Gen Z mojo, and whatever. Zion is also expensive as hell and comes with upside, but so does BI although everyone has forgotten about him given Williamson’s ascension to the basketball heaven. Anyways. Ingram projects as one of the better plays of the day, his ROI could be massive, and I mean, Chicago is at the other end of the court which is also going to play in his favor. You might not believe this, but Ingram is averaging a 24-5-5 line with 1.5 stocks per game on top of that. He’s shooting 74/38/88 on the year. He’s playing a freaking 36+ minutes a game and he’s logged 30+ in his past 11 matches going back to Feb. 11. No joke. BI is putting up 1.15 FP/min on the season, has averaged 42 FP in his last five games, and has returned bonkers ROIs in four of those five games. Sounds good to me.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 10 (Feb. 22 to Feb. 28)
- We’re back to the good old times of Giannis dominating the L, folks. In a week in which everything went down in the fantasy basketball realm, Giannis Antotekounmpo was the only player with 3+ games played to average more than 59 FP, finishing with 65 DKFP per game in his three matches this past week.
- The numbers were crazy at an average 37-11-6-1-2 line and he even added 1.7 3PG, went to the line almost 10 times per game, and hit 60% of his 24 FGA per game nightly to go with a 75% rate from the charity stripe. Nobody came even remotely close to Giannis’ 1.84 FP/min even though the Greek logged 36 MPG. Jokic was second at 1.66, with Jimmer ranking third at 1.57.
- Not only was Giannis’ average the best among all players, but he reached that mark on a very steady basis with a minimal deviation of 7 DKFP per game. His scores read 66, 58, and 71. Jokic’s deviation was even better (fewer than 3 FP per game), but Butler’s 14 was quite high (he went as low as 37 FP and as high as 62).
- Bradley Beal came back to his scoring ways, ranking second in PPG with 35 per game only behind Giannis (37) and above Devin Booker (33). No other player reached 30, though Zion finished at a close 29.7 PPG.
- No player was able to close the week averaging a trip-dub, with Westbrook (22-11-9), Draymond (9-8-11), Sabonis (20-9-7), Jimmy (25-7-9), Jokic (28-9-8), and Harden (26-9-9) being the closest to it.
- Silly cheap values: Markieff, Krokmaz, Wade, Isaiah Stewart, Thybulle, Scott, Nowell, Windler, Saben Lee, Teague, Saric
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: PJ Washington, Bruce Brown, Monk, Branes, Rose, Dennis Smith Jr., DiVincenzo, Kemba, Steven Adams, Nunn, Bledsoe
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Ben Simmons, LaVine, Tatum, Paul George, Jaylen, Wall, Rozier, Morant, Valanciunas, Oubre.
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Saben Lee, Tyus Jones, Windler, Korkmaz, Nowell, Shamet, Teague, Paschall, Reid, Saric, Winslow, Cam Johnson, Forbes, Niang
- Cheap threes: Windler, Shamet, Niang, Korkmaz, Iggy, Tony Snell
- Cheap boards: Isaiah Stewart, Marjanovic, Wade, Gibson, Sterling Brown, Markieff, Saric, Dwight, Iggy, PJ Tucker, Tillman, Windler
- Cheap dimes: Saben Lee, Chasson Randle, Tyus Jones, Teague, James Johnson, Bembry, THT, Rondo, Wanamaker
- Cheap steals: Ntilikina, Okeke, Aminu, Windler, Claxton, Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Stewart.
- Cheap blocks: Patton, McGee, Reid, Len, Claxton, Thybulle, Dwight, Stewart, THT
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Saben Lee, Paschall, Reid, Cam Johnson, Shamet, THT, Winslow, Nowell, Korkmaz
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!