Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Ja Morant (PG). For some reason, the algorithm doesn’t have any clue how to catch up with Ja’s value these days... even after a long break to tweak its calculations. Morant’s last two games before the AS went for 58 and 51 FP, folks. His salaries in those two were at a sweet $7K and $7.8K respectively... and his tag for tonight’s affair is sitting exactly at the latter number once more. Obviously, you don’t need me to tell you that the ROI those points combined with those salaries yielded was monstrous, and that’s what will most probably happen again today. That 58-DKFP performance came against no other than the Wiz, which are at the other end tonight, and which ate all of Morant’s 33-5-10-1 line in just 33 minutes of playing time. Sublime play.
- Hate: Russell Westbrook (PG). In a two-game slate, it’s always hard to find true folks to hate. And this is not a literal “hate”, don’t get me wrong, because no one would truly hate on a man on a mission such as Russ is with his 10-game streak of hitting 47+ DKFP, but the thing is that he is carrying the second-highest salary and I think his teammate Brad could hit a higher FP tally tonight. Russ is projected to score just half a point more than Beal against Memphis, though Beal is coming in at $9.4K compared to Russ’ $10K+ on the night. Russ depends less on scoring than Brad, but it’s been three in a row without trip-dubbing for the former while the latter has dropped 34 PPG on average in his last five games, beating his already surreal season-long scoring average. Again: don’t hate Russ or be mad at me if you fade him and he ends with 50 pops. It is what it is; some guys just never miss.
- Love: Jonas Valanciunas (C). It must be a small-market thing, this about them Grizz and the algorithm not showing them any love... Ja is wildly underrated, but Valanciunas tag just straight makes zero sense. Almost at a stupid $7K, JoVa is posied to break the slate against a no-center Wizards squad that will feature... who? Who in the paint, you say? Robin Lopez? Mo Wagner? Small-ball center Rui Hachimura? Btch, pls. Valanciunas is a walking dub-dubber, is at 15-11-1 on the season, only committing 2 TO per game, and shooting 54 from the floor on his near-12 FGA per. Not bad, sir. The per-minute efficiency is top-of-the-order at 1.30 FP/min, and barring his 12-minute outing on Feb. 28 this man has dub-dubbed in eight consecutive games. Seriously. I don’t have any idea how anyone could fade the brother Jonas tonight.
- Hate: Kristaps Porzingis (PF). Kristaps on the other hand... Yikes. At least Dallas still has a couple of weeks to pull of that trade before we get past the deadline, I guess. John Wall’s contract is a cupcake when put side-to-side to that of KP and what it could become in no more than a year. I’m not joking about this, folks. Porzingis isn’t bad, but he’s far from greatness and even further from reaching the level he thinks he’s at in his brain. If Luka wants to win, he better be calling for that move to happen. Porzingis has been rock-solid average in fantasy terms, too. Four games in a row without topping 40 DKFP to close the first half of the season, never reaching 20 points, and only posting a couple of dub-dubs even though he’s painted as someone who should be eating those for breakfast. The shooting is down—the regression was going to come sooner or later—and the usage has dropped from 28-ish to 24 in the last two. Not liking KP, not in this crib.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 10-11 (Feb. 22 to Mar. 7)
- We’re back to the good old times of Giannis dominating the L, folks. In a week in which everything went down in the fantasy basketball realm, Giannis Antotekounmpo was the only player with 3+ games played to average more than 59 FP, finishing with 65 DKFP per game in his three matches this past week.
- The numbers were crazy at an average 37-11-6-1-2 line and he even added 1.7 3PG, went to the line almost 10 times per game, and hit 60% of his 24 FGA per game nightly to go with a 75% rate from the charity stripe. Nobody came even remotely close to Giannis’ 1.84 FP/min even though the Greek logged 36 MPG. Jokic was second at 1.66, with Jimmer ranking third at 1.57.
- Not only was Giannis’ average the best among all players, but he reached that mark on a very steady basis with a minimal deviation of 7 DKFP per game. His scores read 66, 58, and 71. Jokic’s deviation was even better (fewer than 3 FP per game), but Butler’s 14 was quite high (he went as low as 37 FP and as high as 62).
- Bradley Beal came back to his scoring ways, ranking second in PPG with 35 per game only behind Giannis (37) and above Devin Booker (33). No other player reached 30, though Zion finished at a close 29.7 PPG.
- No player was able to close the week averaging a trip-dub, with Westbrook (22-11-9), Draymond (9-8-11), Sabonis (20-9-7), Jimmy (25-7-9), Jokic (28-9-8), and Harden (26-9-9) being the closest to it.
- Silly cheap values: Markieff, Krokmaz, Wade, Isaiah Stewart, Thybulle, Scott, Nowell, Windler, Saben Lee, Teague, Saric
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: PJ Washington, Bruce Brown, Monk, Branes, Rose, Dennis Smith Jr., DiVincenzo, Kemba, Steven Adams, Nunn, Bledsoe
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Ben Simmons, LaVine, Tatum, Paul George, Jaylen, Wall, Rozier, Morant, Valanciunas, Oubre.
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Saben Lee, Tyus Jones, Windler, Korkmaz, Nowell, Shamet, Teague, Paschall, Reid, Saric, Winslow, Cam Johnson, Forbes, Niang
- Cheap threes: Windler, Shamet, Niang, Korkmaz, Iggy, Tony Snell
- Cheap boards: Isaiah Stewart, Marjanovic, Wade, Gibson, Sterling Brown, Markieff, Saric, Dwight, Iggy, PJ Tucker, Tillman, Windler
- Cheap dimes: Saben Lee, Chasson Randle, Tyus Jones, Teague, James Johnson, Bembry, THT, Rondo, Wanamaker
- Cheap steals: Ntilikina, Okeke, Aminu, Windler, Claxton, Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Stewart.
- Cheap blocks: Patton, McGee, Reid, Len, Claxton, Thybulle, Dwight, Stewart, THT
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Saben Lee, Paschall, Reid, Cam Johnson, Shamet, THT, Winslow, Nowell, Korkmaz
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!