Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Enes Kanter (C). As much as I hate both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins injuries for the Blazers, Turkish Combatant Enes Kanter has made the most of his new role as a starter for Portland. It’s been 20 starts in a month and a half already, and Kanter is basically a dub-dub machine. The usage is super low, obviously, but he’s still putting up numbers to the tune of a 13-13 line as a starter having reached season-highs of 22 pops and 22 boards in different matches. All things considered, and going back to Feb. 20, Kant is averaging 37 FP per game and 1.08 FP/min. That means that he’s returning great ROI for those banking on him, which is what we ultimately want at the end of the day.
- Hate: Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C). Assuming Kristaps plays, you better fade. KP came back a few days ago to face Brooklyn after missing a few games due to injury, played 25 minutes, and finished with an 18-4-2-1-3 line. That wasn’t bad for the run, sure, but the price is absolutely ridiculous for someone that might play 30 minutes tops and projects to hit fewer than 40 FP on the day. If that’s the case, we’d be talking about a kinda lowish value in return for the price we’d be paying, which you know we hate in this crib. Luka is the man, he will keep carrying the Mavs, and Porz has been more on the trade rumor mill than in the flashy headlines as the season has started to grow older. Not trusting the OG Unicorn just one bit these days.
- Love: Rudy Gobert (C). Gobert’s play tonight is more about his cheap-ass price more than anything. At just $7.4K but with a projection of almost 40 DKFP, Rudy’s upside is over the roof in today’s slate. Gob-Gob is averaging a nice 14-13-1 line on the year with 2.7 BPG, which is no joke. Utah keeps trouncing opponents and Gobert’s numbers are truly bonkers. He dub-dubs more often than not, has blocked a shot in every game this season except G1 back on Dec. 23, he’s shot a ridiculous 74 percent in February and 70% in the past couple of weeks, and he’s always out of foul trouble and playing his customary 30+ MPG. The average FP/min sit at 1.26 through last month, which means he’s at the level of production of Zion, Kyrie, LaVine, or Sabonis while priced at the tags of MPJ, Garland, Sexton, or Rozier. Sweet deal.
- Hate: Brandon Ingram (SF/PF). While BI was great to start the season and entering 2021, the truth is that he’s been a little bit bouncy of late. Ingram keeps racking up numbers and dropping gems, but those come along with other games that can better be qualified as duds... In the past couple of weeks, Ingram has as many games with 42+ DKFP as he has games below those 42 FP against all types of opponents, and always playing 31+ minutes. The points are still up at around 25 per game, but the dimes have gone down a nail and the value he’s returning for his average prices hasn’t been great lately. Ingram is a sound play, don’t get me wrong, but against the unstoppable Jazz and at his current tag there are better-looking players out there when it comes down to maximizing ROI.
- Love: Ben Simmons (PG/SF). This has a little bit to do with Embiid’s status, as he’s only “probable” to face Indiana tonight. If he misses the game, then you better be smashing that ADD button next to Simmons’ name. The last time JoJo missed a game, back on Feb. 15 against Utah, Benny had his best game of the year by a freaking mile: 75 DKFP to the tune of 42 pops, 12 dimes, 9 boards, a steal, and a block. On a 38% usage rate. Shooting the rock 26 times. Hitting 12-of-13 freebies. Seriously, Simmons is a must-play any and every time JoJo is out. Oh, and on top of that, there is a chance Tobias Harris also missed tonight’s affair against Indy. Looks like someone is about to eat three-times his average dose of basketballs.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 10 (Feb. 22 to Feb. 28)
- We’re back to the good old times of Giannis dominating the L, folks. In a week in which everything went down in the fantasy basketball realm, Giannis Antotekounmpo was the only player with 3+ games played to average more than 59 FP, finishing with 65 DKFP per game in his three matches this past week.
- The numbers were crazy at an average 37-11-6-1-2 line and he even added 1.7 3PG, went to the line almost 10 times per game, and hit 60% of his 24 FGA per game nightly to go with a 75% rate from the charity stripe. Nobody came even remotely close to Giannis’ 1.84 FP/min even though the Greek logged 36 MPG. Jokic was second at 1.66, with Jimmer ranking third at 1.57.
- Not only was Giannis’ average the best among all players, but he reached that mark on a very steady basis with a minimal deviation of 7 DKFP per game. His scores read 66, 58, and 71. Jokic’s deviation was even better (fewer than 3 FP per game), but Butler’s 14 was quite high (he went as low as 37 FP and as high as 62).
- Bradley Beal came back to his scoring ways, ranking second in PPG with 35 per game only behind Giannis (37) and above Devin Booker (33). No other player reached 30, though Zion finished at a close 29.7 PPG.
- No player was able to close the week averaging a trip-dub, with Westbrook (22-11-9), Draymond (9-8-11), Sabonis (20-9-7), Jimmy (25-7-9), Jokic (28-9-8), and Harden (26-9-9) being the closest to it.
- Silly cheap values: Markieff, Krokmaz, Wade, Isaiah Stewart, Thybulle, Scott, Nowell, Windler, Saben Lee, Teague, Saric
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: PJ Washington, Bruce Brown, Monk, Branes, Rose, Dennis Smith Jr., DiVincenzo, Kemba, Steven Adams, Nunn, Bledsoe
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Ben Simmons, LaVine, Tatum, Paul George, Jaylen, Wall, Rozier, Morant, Valanciunas, Oubre.
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Saben Lee, Tyus Jones, Windler, Korkmaz, Nowell, Shamet, Teague, Paschall, Reid, Saric, Winslow, Cam Johnson, Forbes, Niang
- Cheap threes: Windler, Shamet, Niang, Korkmaz, Iggy, Tony Snell
- Cheap boards: Isaiah Stewart, Marjanovic, Wade, Gibson, Sterling Brown, Markieff, Saric, Dwight, Iggy, PJ Tucker, Tillman, Windler
- Cheap dimes: Saben Lee, Chasson Randle, Tyus Jones, Teague, James Johnson, Bembry, THT, Rondo, Wanamaker
- Cheap steals: Ntilikina, Okeke, Aminu, Windler, Claxton, Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Stewart.
- Cheap blocks: Patton, McGee, Reid, Len, Claxton, Thybulle, Dwight, Stewart, THT
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Saben Lee, Paschall, Reid, Cam Johnson, Shamet, THT, Winslow, Nowell, Korkmaz
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!