Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Jarrett Allen (C). As much as Andre Drummond was doing while logging minutes for the Cavs, folks were still drumming (no pun intended) the “empty calories” beat. That’s okay, because as fantasy GMs we don’t care as long as we get those fantasy goodies. Now with Dru out and Allen in, things have not changed just one bit. Jarrett has steadily increased his fantasy production almost nightly since getting the go-to big-man role in Cleveland. The youngin has started seven of the past eight games, and his fantasy points have evolved like this in those seven starts: 36, 37, 39, 43, 56, and 45. He’s gone from averaging 23 FP prior to February to 37 FP this month and an even better 46 (!) in the past 10 days and four games. Jarrett is a true walking dub-dub these days, putting up 17-14-2 lines and blocking 2+ shots per game of late. Crazy numbers at crazy discounts. Take advantage before the algorithm catches up.
- Hate: Donovan Mitchell (PG/SG). The algorithm went on All-Star celebration mode. It’s either that or I don’t get what the hell is going on with Mitchell’s salary today as he’s got the freaking third-highest one of the slate. Say what!? Mitchell projects to 40 FP tonight, which is a ridiculously low mark for someone tagged with that price. And the projection is not that crazy. Sure, DoMi went off against the Clips on back-to-back games last week, but he sandwiched those games with three 40-DKFP-or-fewer games against MIA/PHI/CHA. The Lake Show is next on schedule and Mitchell would need to put up some 60+ FP to return a palatable ROI tonight. What are the odds that happens? Utah is thriving, but Mitchell has exactly one 60+ game this season and is averaging 40 FP on the season and 46 in February. Even that would fall short for me at that $10.4K price. Fading this one.
- Love: Malcolm Brogdon (PG). I never had Brog in my All-Star list of realistic candidates, but there have been some voices out there calling for his selection. He ultimately missed on it, but he’s been a great fantasy asset ramping up his production on a game-to-game basis since Feb. 5: Malcolm has gone from 18 to 32, 32, 37, 41, 52, and 58 on his last game on Feb. 17—the next two Pacers’ games were postponed for COVID-reasons. Back on the schedule tonight, Brogdon will have it easy on paper against a Warriors team that has the fifth-worst defense in fantasy terms. Brog is himself averaging 20-8-6 lines these days even on a low 40 percent shooting from the floor. He got it right in his last couple of matches, though, finishing with 23-15-5 and 32-9-7-1-1 lines including 6 treys in that last one.
- Hate: Bam Adebayo (C). Shout-out to Miami Heat fans out there hating on Nikola Vucevic today. They know what I mean. Bam is not going to Atlanta next weekend, folks. Too bad... The truth is, Bam has topped 45 DKFP just twice in the past two weeks and eight games, averaging 44 FP on that span. I mean, he’s great and all, but just like DoMi (read his blurb above) he’s not good enough at his current price. Will Bam hand you some 15-10-5 daily? Most probably. Will he enter the 50+ DKFP realm? I just don’t see it. Toronto has a borderline top-10 fantasy D, and Bayo already tasted it a few weeks ago when he went for just 41 and 28 FP gainst the Raps on back-to-back games at the end of January. The lines read 14-13-7 and 14-8-4, which again were not bad, but just fell short of the expectations put on someone carrying a $9K tag.
- Love: Lonzo Ball (PG). Sneaky play of the day, because the $6.4K salary is dumb low. I love Lonzo. I’m a stan at heart. But this is not even being biased by that. Seriously, this play has all of the upside you can imagine. Detroit is nothing otherworldly, all of Zo/Ingram/Zion are available, and Zo has been doing it all lately—as he always does—for the Pels. He is going to score and hit treys like a madman (he’s making 3 per game on the year; 4 per on the last four games), dish out his average 5+ dimes, pull down boards like a wing, and all of that while playing 35+ minutes and racking up opportunities. Great play with a high expected ROI to fill your last lineup’s gap for cheap.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 9 (Feb. 15 to Feb. 21)
- One week ago we crowned Giannis as the best player of the past seven days with an average of 64 DKFP. That’s peanuts compared to this week’s cream of the crop, with as many as four players finishing with higher averages: the very own Giannis, Harden, Dame, and the leader Joel Embiid (70 FP on three games played).
- JoJo did it in three of four possible max. games played, sure, but even then his line of 35-15-5-1-2 was absolutely bonkers. That being said, Embiid was the more bouncy of the top-4 players with a deviation of almost 20 FP between his three fantasy scores this week with none of the other three even reaching 10 FP of deviation. Embiid also led the FP/min leaderboard with a stupid 1.91 mark; Giannis and Dame finished second and third with 1.83 and 1.81 respectively.
- James Harden was probably the best player all things considered. Four games, an average of 65 DKFP, a variation of just 8 FP (his FP were 72, 68, 54, and 67), and an average 32-9-11-1 near-trip-dub line was all he did. Nothing mindblowing, amirite?
- Jamal Murray finally got it right by getting into the top-3 in PPG with 35 pops a day, joining Dame (36.3) and JoJo (35.3).
- Russell Westbrook was the lone player to average a trip-dub this past week. He closed the seven-day span with an 18-12-13 line, while Jimmy Butler fell 0.2 dimes short of pulling off the feat himself. Jimmer’s line: 20-10-10. Kudos to the man anyways.
- Silly cheap values: Derrick Jones, Campazzo, Cam Payne, Bazemore, Robin Lopez, Jordan McLaughlin, Robert Williams, Wanamaker, Okoro
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Cedi Osman, Bagley, Covington, Bertans, Whiteside, Ross, Oubre, Crowder
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Ingram, Booker, Fox, Jaylen Brown, Middleton, Valanciunas
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Duncan Robinson, Campazzo, Tristan Thompson, Muscala, Derrick Jones, Temple, Zubac, Paschall, Bjelica, Cam Payne, Connaughton
- Cheap threes: Duncan Robinson, Cam Payne, Danny Green, Anfernee Simons, Tyler Johnson, Campazzo, Forbes
- Cheap boards: Willy Hernangomez, Zubac, Tristan, DWight, Robert Williams, Derrick Jones, Roby, Isaiah Stewart, Robin Lopez
- Cheap dimes: McLaughlin, Cam Payne, Augustin, Toscano-Anderson, Satoransky, Kira Lewis, Campazzo, Caruso, Ellington, Wanamaker
- Cheap steals: Bruce Brown, Okoro, Thybulle, Robert Williams, Dennis Smith Jr., Campazzo, Bazemore
- Cheap blocks: Robert Williams, Temple, Jaden McDaniels, Derrick Jones, Marc Gason, Birch
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Temple, Muscala, Derrick Jones, Naz Reid, Willy Hernangomez, Duncan Robinson, Forbes, Shamet, KCP, Maxey
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!