Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. On top of that, I’ll bring you some news, statistical trends from the past few days, some studs/duds from the last slate of games, and much more!
Hoop Land Times: News and notes from around the Association
- Jaylen Brown is just insane in the brain. Jay dropped 33 pops in 19 minutes, which is the largest amount of points scored in fewer than 20 minutes since 1954-55 (shot-clock era). That’s all Jaylen play yesterday, as the Celtics ran the Cavs off the house with a near-40-point W.
- The West is as hot as it gets. The Clips just got their seventh win in a row, Utah has eight straight Ws, and Memphis has won its last five games too. Only Philly has 3+ consecutive wins in the Eastern Conference entering Monday’s slate, although the Raptors seem to have righted their wrongs with five wins in six games.
- The Grizzlies keep getting games postponed, with the next one being the one scheduled for Wednesday against the Bulls. Memphis and Washington are definitely fighting a close one with regards to who ends playing fewer games this season...
- And while COVID cases keep growing worldwide, up to nine teams will allow fans to their arenas this week... Seriously?
- We reported on JJ Barea going to Spain yesterday. Turns out he included an NBA-out clause in his deal, and he’s determined to be back in the L by the time the playoffs roll around. We’ll see if he can get there or has to stick to sunny beaches and paellas for long.
- It is all pointing toward Sacramento selling the whole shop, with multiple expiring deals in its roster: Bjelica, Robinson III, Corey Joseph, Whiteside, and Jabari might all move between now and the trade deadline.
Duds and Studs: Yesterday’s slate roundup
- The Blazers keep playing without half of his mega-backcourt, but that’s not much of a problem for Dame, the healthy part of it. Lillard led yesterday’s slate with 60 DKFP becoming the only player to cross that mark, and he did so by burning New York with 39 pops (including 6 treys), 5 boards, 8 dimes, and a theft. Dame shot 64.7% from the floor on a healthy 17 FGA and was even better at the line going 11-for-11. Second-best PTS/Shot of the night at 1.39 including FTAs.
- Three players finished with 50+ fantasy points, all coming from a different team. Kawhi put up the second-most FP of the day with 59 thanks to a 34-9-8 near-dub/trip-dub, Giannis finished second with 57 and a 27-14-8 dub-dub, and Hayward went bananas with 39 points and 9 rebounds for 57 FP.
- Lots of players in the 40-to-50 DKFP clip, 12 in total, including the likes of OG, Dejounte (trip-dub in 30 minutes), Hunter, JoCo, Beal, Vuc, Myles, Jaylen (in 19 minutes), Randle, Quickley (somehow still a reserve...), Middleton, and Kemba (in 23 minutes).
- The ROI King award went to... Immanuel Quickley! Imma have to rule Quickley eligible for this award because it’s starting to become unfair. Thibs is dumb and doesn’t see the upside of Imma Quick, who keeps logging second-unit minutes and not starting... in favor of Elfrid Payton. My lord. Quickley (43 FP) played 24 minutes off the pine, racked up a monster 41.3% usage rate, posted a silly 2 +/- because NY sucks, and completed a 31-3-4 performance hitting half of his 18 FGA and all 8 FTAs. Thibs, do your work my man. Jerome Robinson, Gary Clark, Hunter, Bridges, and Hayward were other sweet values.
- And the DOTS (Dud of the Slate) Award went to... Russell Westbrook! Welcome back to basketball, Russ, and oh, sorry to Russ-GMs out there hoping for a booming return! Russ played 25 minutes coming back from injury... and all he could do even carrying the third-highest price of the slate was finish 9-8-6 against San Antonio for 26 DKFP. Sucked to watch. Drummond, DeRozan, Sexton, and Brogdon were hyper-putrid plays too.
- There were six dub-dubs via points and rebounds (Bazley missed by one point and Kawhi/Gordo by a board) and none between points and dimes (Only Dejounte dished out 10 dimes, and Smart fell one short of the dub-dub).
- One triple-doubles yesterday, in a surprising performance by Spurs’ starting PG Dejounte Murray who played 30 minutes and dropped a tasty 11-11-10 line with a steal against the Wiz. The shooting was horrific at just 38.5% from the floor, but there’s that triple-double-digit line, I guess. Giannis and Kawhi came really close, but no cigar for either of them.
- More silly numbers: Marcus Smart and OG stole 5 rocks each, and Myles Turner (booooooring) led the slate with 6 blocks (no other player went above 3).
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 5 (Jan. 18th to Jan. 24th)
- As many as 105 players logged four games played during the past seven days. Do you know who led them all in DKFP per game? No shit, Luka. Seriously, what does this guy eat for breakfast? Doncic closed last week at 48.8, just above Randle’s 48.3 score also in four games. Luka’s averages on those four matches: 22-8-10 shooting 41.5 percent from the floor, 80.2 percent from the line, and putting up 1.43 FP/min trailing only Steph Curry there (1.44) among players with 4+ GP.
- Lowering the threshold to three games played, though, is when we arrive at the true Beast of the Week: Clint Capela and his 64.5 DKFP per game. Things got real for the Cap. Clint’s line was bonkers and hardly believable: 21-20-1-1-6. No. Freaking. Joke. Both Embiid and Trae finished second to Capela with 59 DKFP/G each, with Embiid edging Caplea 1.84 to 1.83 in DKFP/min.
- Kevin Durant is playing off an Achilles injury. Do you know what KD did last week? He played three games and an average of 40.3 MPG scoring 33 PPG and blocking the second-most shots at 2.7 BPG. WTF.
- The trade did wonders for Harden, who is doing it all in BKN. Four games, 41+ MPG, and 21-7-11 on the week for The Beard who seems to be more concerned with letting others splash the ball by dishing out dimes than hitting buckets himself. Not bad for a start in this new Big 3 environment.
- Keep an eye on Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, Rudy Gobert, Andre Drummond, and Collin Sexton because all of them posted more than 1.35 DKFP/min while playing fewer than 30 MPG last week. Bulk those ticks up a bit and we might be watching explosions all around the L.
- Silly cheap values: Kendrick Nunn, Taurean Prince, Devin Vassell, Wayne Ellington, Thad Young, Rudy Gay, David Nwaba, KCP.
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Hunter, Capela, Smart, Theis, Sexton, Kemba, Jrue, Burks.
- Some very expensive players not doing enough to help their owners: Curry, Sabonis, Drummond, PG13, Ingram, DLo, Brogdon, Booker, Zion.
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Nunn, Ellington, Monte Morris, Lamb, Brunson, Quickley, Jeff Green, Gary Harris, George Hill, Prince
- Cheap threes: Ellington, Nunn, Jeff Green, KCP, Gary Harris, George Hill, Prince, Quickley, Cam Johnson, Reggie Bullock, Devin Vassell, Valentine
- Cheap boards: Zubac, Noel, Thad Young, Favors, Birch, Poeltl, Nunn, Ed Davis, Baynes, Isaiah Stewart, Jeff Green, Connaughton
- Cheap dimes: McConnell, McLaughlin, Rondo, Nunn, Brunson, Thad Young, Prince, Lou, Monte Morris, Cam Payne
- Cheap steals: Iguodala, McConnell, Nwaba, Okogie, Nunn, Vassell, Thad Young, Prince, Okoro
- Cheap blocks: Okongwu, Josh Jackson, Noel, Poeltl, Stewart, McDaniels, Gafford, Gasol, Zubac
- Cheap FG% (min. 9 FGA): Nunn, Ellington, Monte Morris, Jeremy Lamb, Brunson, Gary Harris
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Steph Curry (PG). Not the cheapest of plays, but definitely not the most expensive one tonight and getting into a spicy matchup as they come. Steph comes from surpassing Reggie in the all-time three-point list and is already looking up to dethrone Ray Allen in no more than a year or two. Let the man start tonight against an absolutely derailed Wolves... who also have a potential GSW draft pick in play tonight. If you don’t remember, Minny included a top-3 protected pick in the DLo-Wiggins trade, and Golden State should root for Minny to lose every game, which means GSW will do everything in its hands to defeat the Sad Wolves today. Curry has reached 44+ DKFP in his last three and just played 27 minutes two days ago so he’ll be rested and ready to hit 4+ treys once more, like he’s done in four of his last five games going back to Jan. 14th.
- Hate: Andre Drummond (C). I don’t like betting against biggies, but since Jarrett Allen arrived in town Drummond has lost some of his mojo. Sure, he had a nice one in the second leg against BKN three days ago, but I’m still not trusting Dre and will need to see him stabilize a bit going forward before putting his body in my lineup again. Dru has been bouncy since Cleveland came back from its COVID-related mini-hiatus and played three games since Jan. 20th which went for 26, 50, and 20 FP. Drummond didn’t top 27 minutes in any of those matches, logged just one dub-dub, and never got to even 20 pops. Not liking this play today, even less against the Lakers—Boston murdered Cleveland yesterday and that meant 17 minutes for Dru, which is not entirely out of the realm of possibilities today either.
- Love: Jaylen Brown (SG/SF). If you read the news or the slate breakdown above, you know what Jaylen did just yesterday night: 33 pops in a silly 19 minutes of playing time and 43 DKFP for an average of 2.28 FP/min. LOL. That’s insane, and although this marks a back-to-back for Boston—now against Chicago, not Cleveland—odds are Brown is not going to be tired and will once more put on another show against a lowly D ranked 13th in most FP allowed to the opposition. Brown has reached 43+ FP in his last two games, and more than 36 in his last seven games (all from Jan. 6th on). He’s dropped 25+ points in the last four, grabbed 5.0 RPG, and dished out 3.6 APG in that span. Oh, and since we flipped the calendar page Brown is shooting an impossible 52.6 percent from the floor on a dose of 19.6 FGA per game, while he’s logged 39+ usage rates in the past three matches.
- Hate: Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C). Five games into Porzingis’ comeback, things are starting to head south after reaching completely unsustainable peaks last earlier last week. KP’s fantasy points went from 27 to 33 to 34 to 40 to 53, in an increasing pace that was obviously going to hit a wall sooner rather than later, which is precisely what happened against San Antonio last Friday in Kristaps last game—he missed Saturday’s back-to-back resting/with knee issues. Against the Spurs, KP could “only” reach 40 fantasy points, but he went back to not dub-dubbing, shot 50% from the floor and his usage was, for the second game in a row, at a low 21 percent. Luka is ruling the Mavs, and as long as he wants, KP will keep eating. The problem is that more often than not it looks like KP wants to look like the alpha macho of the squad, and he sucks at it. Fading him until he acknowledges the no. 2 role.
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!