clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Joe Musgrove to the San Diego Padres is great for real baseball, but what about fantasy baseball?

Musgrove goes to San Diego by way of a three-team trade.

Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations

Apparently, the San Diego Padres weren’t done adding starting pitching, as Joe Musgrove was traded Monday and headed to the coast by way of a three-team, seven-player trade:

Here are all the pieces that moved in the deal:

  • Musgrove to the Padres
  • LHP Joey Lucchesi to the New York Mets
  • OF Hudson Head, RHP David Bednar, LHP Omar Cruz, RHP Drake Fellows from the Padres and C/OF Endy Rodriguez from the Mets to the Pittsburgh Pirates

That’s a lot of moving pieces to keep track of for fantasy baseball.

First and foremost, you must pump the brakes on Adrian Morejon and MacKenzie Gore — each are only dart throws in your draft-and-hold formats currently. And if you were already concerned about the health of Dinelson Lamet, perhaps this gives you a bit of added concern.

As for Musgrove, his ADP is already around 130, with a high around 115 and a max around 150 (per January NFBC data). Long-term I could see Musgrove’s ADP moving towards Chris Paddack’s, which is around 105 on average per the same data set. Or rather, their ADPs may move towards each other. Musgrove is basically one of the trendiest picks within the big glob of pitching after a lot of the so-called “sure things” have been drafted. The move to San Diego will inflate the ADP a bit more, in my opinion. Even with an inflated ADP — and Paddack’s ADP likely dropping — I still prefer Musgrove over Paddack in fantasy this year.

The Mets get the lefty Joey Lucchesi, who isn’t currently projected to crack the Opening Day roster. He’s one of three potential lefty starters for New York, and perhaps the biggest reaction here is that Seth Lugo seems ticketed for the bullpen one way or another. The Mets won’t need him in the rotation, and he’s done his best work as a reliever. That said, I think he’s the long man/stopper role for New York—this doesn’t scare me away from drafting Edwin Diaz for saves.

As for the Pirates, they’ve now unloaded two of their best players in Joe Musgrove and Josh Bell. Time will tell if speedy center field prospect Hudson Head is a worthy centerpiece of this trade, but there aren’t really any actionable fantasy implications for 2021 in Pittsburgh’s haul. Perhaps reliever David Bednar works his way into some high-leverage situations for the Buccos, but for as bad as this team projects to be I can’t imagine he’s worth much of a pick in any league.

What about you, sports fans? What sticks out to you? And who are you taking—Paddack or Musgrove?