The best of the Miami Dolphins offense is a boom/bust group who’s extremely matchup-dependent. The passing game possesses the strongest talent but the run game is what has the halfway decent Strength of Schedule metrics, via Sharp Football (listed below). The Dolphins’ passing game schedule is largely a gauntlet of daunting opponents with a few rays of sunshine in between.
Sharp Football’s Strength of Schedule:
- 12th softest overall schedule
- The toughest in terms of the opponent’s overall defensive efficiency
- The toughest blend of pass defenses
- The toughest in terms of the opponent’s pass defense efficiency
- Mid-tier blend of rush defenses
- Mid-tier in terms of the opponent’s run defense efficiency
- 10th softest in terms of the opponent’s overall offensive efficiency
- 7th softest in terms of the opponent’s offensive passing efficiency
- 6th softest in terms of the opponent’s offensive rushing efficiency
Given the brutal nature of the passing defense schedule, fantasy managers should be rooting for likely-ataraxia-patient Ryan Fitzpatrick to retain the starting gig throughout the season. Rookie first round pick Tua Tagovailoa is no doubt a skilled passer, but it’s difficult for anyone to replicate Fitz’s commitment to Devil-may-care passing which bodes so well for fantasy passing games. If Fitzpatrick tosses a pick-6 right off the bat, he’s going to pepper his pass catcher with targets all game long, increasing their chances at box score success. Given his propensity for both throwing interceptions and racking up gaudy yardage totals, Fitz can be started in perfect matchups, like Week 3 against the Jaguars, Week 9 against the Cardinals, Week 13 against the Bengals, and in fantasy championship Week 16 (if you dare!) against the Raiders. Outside of that, he cannot be trusted.
The Dolphins backfield is mostly fantasy quicksand. Brick-handed banger back Jordan Howard is likely to get the bulk of the team’s carries and would presumably be the team’s goal line back, where they to ever make it that far down the field. It’s a role that will pay off from time to time in the right matchup, but drafters should just avoid Howard entirely. There’s little upside with the pick and drafters deserve more bang for the buck in the early 7th round.
Meanwhile, Matt Breida, a scat back who’s never seen much in the way of a passing game role is expected to share early rushing duties with Howard, nuking both of their ceilings and apparently will just become a pass catching back. Like Howard, Breida isn’t worth his late 7th round ADP.
Myles Gaskin has reportedly taken the 3rd string job but it’s unlikely to be of fantasy relevance.
DeVante Parker finally broke out in 2019, but it came after stud receiver Preston Williams was lost for the season (ACL). His play had clearly improved but it’s tough to know what the duo will look like now that Williams is ready to play. Against such a brutal passing schedule, it’s tough to stomach Parker’s 5.12, WR25 .5PPR ADP. Meanwhile Williams, who looked great last year, is coming off the board in the 14th round — a much more reasonable price to pay for a piece of this WR tandem.
Isaiah Ford, Mack Hollins, and rookie Lynn Bowden Jr. are just role players at this point although Bowden Jr. does have a chance to earn a piece of the offense as the season progresses.
Speedster Jakeem Grant could be flex-worthy in deep leagues in the aforementioned passing matchups in the Quarterback section.
Tight end Mike Gesicki broke out in the final quarter of 2019 and may be the one player who could withstand a QB change in-season. The third-year player had a great camp and OC Chan Gailey has big plans for Gesicki, reportedly intending to use him as a jumbo-sized slot receiver. Should Tua take over at some point, Gesicki will fill the classic tight end safety blanket role that’s served many a rookie QB well.
Jason Sanders is not a kicker we want in fantasy. His team will struggle to get him into field goal range.
The Dolphins’ somewhat improved defense will be a streaming option in the matchups listed under the Quarterback section.