The Seattle Seahawks offense can be characterized as a success in spite of Pete Carroll. Russell Wilson’s supreme quarterbacking ability gives Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and whichever tight end steals the TE1 receiving game job matchup-irrelevant start-ability. Similarly, Carroll’s commitment to an archaic, inefficient run-first attack gives Chris Carson locked-in RB2 status.
- Mid-tier overall schedule
- 2nd toughest in terms of the opponent’s overall defensive efficiency
- 9th toughest blend of pass defenses
- 13th toughest in terms of the opponent’s pass defense efficiency
- 3rd toughest blend of rush defenses
- The toughest in terms of the opponent’s rush defense efficiency
- 10th softest in terms of the opponent’s offensive passing efficiency
- 8th toughest blend of passing offenses
- Mid-tier in terms of the opponent’s rushing efficiency
- Mid-tier blend of rushing offenses
Numerous advanced stats display Russell Wilson’s Hall of Fame-level play. Perhaps most notably, Wilson has finished Top 4 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) in 3 of the last 4 years. In the leftover 4th year, he finished No. 8. Few statistics provide as clear of a picture as to just how accurate a quarterback really is. As Warren Sharp notes in his 2020 Football Preview, Russell Wilson’s expected completion percentage has been Bottom 5 in the NFL, based on the difficulty of his attempted throws. He instead finished 3rd (4.2% over expected) and 4th (4.8% over expected) in CPOE.
Wilson has finished as a fantasy QB1 from 2012-2019, with multiple Top 4 finishes and one No.1 overall finish. Unfortunately, that overall QB1 position is likely unrepeatable with QBs like Lamar Jackson (OC Greg Roman), Patrick Mahomes (HC Andy Reid), and Dak Prescott (OC Kellen Moore) attached to brilliant, analytically informed offensive minds. Pete Carroll’s hubris will keep Russell Wilson from ever reaching his fantasy (and real life ceiling). However, Wilson’s Hall of Fame talent keeps his floor as a locked-in QB1. Wilson’s 5.04, QB4 is perhaps high for a quarterback but the QB4 aspect is adequately representative of his possible 2020 finish. Stacking either Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf with Wilson in Rounds 4 and 5 is a terrific fantasy strategy.
Chris Carson is fully recovered from his 2019 hip injury and ready to take on 18+ touches per game as Seattle’s lead back. As noted in the Sharp Football Strength of Schedule section, Carson has his work cut out for him this year as the Seahawks face a brutal 2020 run defense schedule. Carson’s passing game work has increased each season and the team now has no real passing game dynamo in the backfield. It’s possible we see 50+ targets for Carson this year, a modest yet helpful sum.
Rashaad Penny is on PUP (ACL surgery) and expected to miss the first six games of the season. Ho-hum rush-stealer Carlos Hyde has been brought in to compete for the No. 2 RB job. Hyde recently recovered from a labrum repair in his hip joint and could be a deep flex option in the right matchup. Both Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas are proficient backs who would produce if ever given an opportunity. Chris Carson’s .5PPR 3.11, RB16 ADP is a conundrum. 3.11 is likely too early for him with players like Mark Andrews, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley, James Conner, and Mark Ingram going soon after. A RB16-20 finish is a reasonable expectation for Carson though.
Although a higher passing volume would be ideal, there’s still value to be had amongst the pass catchers. Last year, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf led the team with respective target shares of 21.3% and 19.3%. While the former is indicative of Lockett’s connection with Russell Wilson, the latter is an outstanding number to hit for the rookie Metcalf. These two own rights to a large chunk of Russell Wilson’s infrequent 2020 passes. Lockett claimed rights to the slot in 2019, running 60.1% of his routes out of it. Expect Lockett to continue working over the safeties, linebackers, and even the slot cornerbacks that try to guard him there. He’s a WR2 with a near impenetrable floor. Tyler Lockett is well worth his 4.00, WR19 ADP.
Metcalf flashed his downfield bonafides early and often last year. As the team slowly piled up more complex routes—and targets—he rose to the occasion, cruising to box score success down the stretch. It’s worth mentioning we had a great deal of success in last year’s weekly Rundown series, predicting Metcalf’s spiked weeks. Although Lockett is likely to keep the team lead in targets, Metcalf is the clearcut No. 2 passing game option and his downfield skillset will force the team to give him more high-value deep shots. Although a shakier floor on a week-to-week basis, Metcalf is a fantasy WR2 across all formats with week-shattering upside. His 5.08, WR22 ADP is reasonable.
David Moore has proven himself to be a role playing NFL receiver. Should either Lockett or Metcalf miss time, Moore will be addable off of the waiver wire. There will be game’s where he has deep, standalone value when given a perfect matchup on the perimeter.
Phillip Dorsett is a competent downfield receiver whose value is similar to Moore. He would be a waiver wire add should Metcalf miss time.
John Ursua can be considered a direct backup to Tyler Lockett, operating almost entirely in the slot. He would bring dart-throw value should Lockett miss time. Danny Kelly has floated him as a strong option in Seattle’s short-area passing game.
Seattle’s tight end stable is jarringly deep. Roster veterans Will Dissly, Jacob Hollister, Luke Willson (back from Detroit) will battle with longtime NFL vet Greg Olsen. Russell Wilson showed how much he loves Dissly last year, catching 23 of 27 targets for 262 yards and 4 touchdowns in the six games he played before tearing his Achilles. His 2018 rookie season was cut short by a torn patellar tendon. Those two injuries are perhaps the two toughest, commonly occurring, injuries for an NFL player to return from. Relieving Dissly of his duties, Hollister posted a usable fantasy season once he took the reins. While Willson has never lived up to his athletic potential, he muddles the TE-receiving work. The formerly prolific Olsen has been robbed of his athletic abilities via Jones fractures and Father Time. His hands are as sure as any though. Seattle delivers modest passing game work to their tight ends when between the 20s, but oftentimes prioritizes them in the redzone. Throwing a dart at any one of Olsen, Dissly, or Hollister at the end of a draft is reasonable. But it’ll be of paramount importance to see who runs the most first-team snaps in the shortened training camp. Rookies Colby Parkinson, Stephen Sullivan, and Tyler Marby are not fantasy options.
Jason Myers offers moderate fantasy viability. The tough schedule and run game commitment stunt the team’s overall ability to generate PAT attempts/get the team into field goal range.
Seattle’s complete lack of a pass rush nerfs their weekly viability. The Seahawks D/ST is matchup-only streaming defense.