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NBA DFS bubble preview: Dallas Mavericks

With the start of the NBA Bubble right around the corner, it’s time to look at what the Dallas Mavericks have to offer in DFS.

LA Clippers v Dallas Mavericks Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images

It’s been quite a—boring—ride but we’re almost there, folks. Starting July 30, the NBA will enter a vortex of daily action that will get us back to our couches to indulge as much basketball as we can with games coming left and right. With such a short time between now and the restart (and with the four months we have endured without any NBA hoops around) it makes sense to go through the 22 teams that made it to Disney’s bubble to review what they did during the first months of the 2019-20 season and what we can expect from them going forward. Consider this a primer on who to target, who to avoid, and a know-it-all reviewing exercise of what will be there when NBA DFS contests come back in less than 14 days time.

As has always been the case, I will be using data from both the official NBA website paired with information from DFS contests held on DraftKings through the first months of the season. Every chart uses the same scale (salaries from 3K to 10K except when they don’t fit, fantasy points from 0 to 65) so they can be easily compared between teams to see where each player ranks league-wide.

Regular Season Stats

  • Record: 40-27 (.597)
  • Offensive Rating: 116.7 (1st)
  • Defensive Rating: 110.6 (17th)
  • Net Rating: 6.1 (6th)

The discrepancy between the Mavs offense and their defense can’t be higher. While Dallas boasts the greatest offensive rating in the NBA scoring more than 116 points per 100 possessions, they also allow the 17th-most of them in the same sample, meaning they are a bottom-half team in that regard and one of only seven teams inside the bubble to rank 17th or worst league-wide on DRtg. The Mavericks will be missing big men Willie Cauley-Stein and Dwight Powell for the rest of the season, along with Courtney Lee and Jalen Brunson (the latter three all injured). Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis have lifted the team way above expectations, but it’s going to be hard for them to make a deep run this summer... or is it?

Team Leaders (per game)

  • MIN: Luka Doncic (33.3)
  • PTS: Luka Doncic (28.7)
  • 3PM: Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. (2.9)
  • REB: Kristaps Porzingis (9.5)
  • AST: Luka Doncic (8.7)
  • STL: Boban Marjanovic (1.4)
  • BLK: Kristaps Porzingis (2.1)
  • TOV: Luka Doncic (4.2)
  • USG%: Luka Doncic (35.8%)
  • DKFP: Luka Doncic (56.9)

Fantasy Profile

  • Players Acquired: Trey Burke
  • Players Lost: Dwight Powell, Willie Cauley-Stein, Jalen Brunson, Courtney Lee

Simply put, and in all honesty, Dallas lives and dies by Luka. Just take a look at the team leaders above and you’ll see why. Doncic, in his second year as a pro, leads the team in virtually every statistical category (he’s got 1.2 SPG to Boban’s 1.4), and although it seems impossible he’s as good—or even more—as he’s young at just 21 years of age. Insane.

The Mavs bet on Porzingis trading for the big man and trusting the one-two tandem of Euro bigs, and so far it’s not been bad at all. Both of them are averaging more than 40 DKFP per game this season and although Luka’s price borders the insane at $11K+ on average, it is pretty reasonable given his production. Kristaps comes much cheaper while still providing huge outcomes to those putting him in their lineups.

When looking at Dallas’ players from a Return On Investment (ROI = Price/DKFP), it is in fact KP the one who has the greatest mark among all Mavs. Doncic is a close second even with such a massive average price tag (don’t be afraid to pay for him in DFS contests) and perhaps the best ROI option from the Texas-based team is Seth Curry. At just an average price of $4.1K per game, Curry is averaging 20.7 DKFP and is a great option if you want to get some treys and dimes in your lineup.