In the second part of my selection of the the best and worst picks in fantasy drafts by round, I’ve moved onto rounds four to six and have identified the player most likely to over-perform their ADP in 2020, the one who gives you that safe floor and the player most likely to be a draft bust.
Boom – James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ve already written about James Conner this offseason and I’m still banging the drum for him to get back on track in 2020. It was a rough 2019 with shoulder and quad injuries shortening a season where through the first half he was averaging 17.5 points per game. Conner has the talent to achieve top 10 running back numbers this year, and if you’re willing to put up with the injury risk then Conner offers tremendous value in Round 4.
Safety First – Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Woods has offered one of the safest floors in fantasy over the past three years, averaging 15.6 points per game over that period to be the WR10. Entering 2020 and with Brandin Cooks traded to the Texans, Woods should see a further uptick on targets and should be a shoo-in for his first 100 catch season. Woods must also see some positive touchdown regression, having found the end zone just three times in 2019 (1 rushing). The current WR19 has top-15 upside and is a solid selection inside the top 50 picks.
Bust - Mark Ingram, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Many have predicted Ingram’s downfall before and he’s continued to defy the critics, finishing as the RB11 in 2019 in the highest yardage rushing attack the NFL has ever seen. Onto 2020 it’s highly unlikely that the Ravens will be able to continue to have the rushing success they saw last year, plus Ingram also has his replacement entering the fray in the form of second round pick J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins had a sensational 2019 for Ohio State, rushing for over 2000 yards and 23 total touchdowns and is primed to take at least a major share of touches, if not becoming the starter this year. Ingram can still give useful production as his all-round ability will keep him on the field, but a decline is likely and a 4th round pick is too rich for me this year.
Boom – Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns
What is not to love about a healthy Beckham in 2020? An injury plagued 2019 and he still put up 74 catches for 1000 yards and if you believe his Instagram account, is working harder and is in the best shape of his life heading into this year. Still only 27 and by far the best receiver on his team (sorry Jarvis), I’m fully in on his connection with Baker Mayfield coming good and Beckham getting back into the top 10 receivers in 2020.
Safety First – D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
Going a few picks later is DJ Moore, a player who broke out in 2019 with 87 catches for 1175 yards and finished as the WR16 in fantasy. He did his without Cam Newton for the majority of 2019 and with Teddy Bridgewater coming in to steady the position, Moore should be a consistent force at receiver. Receiver is incredibly deep this season, and when you’re getting top-15 production at the WR24, you can’t go wrong to wait on receivers this season.
Bust – Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Love the player, hate the situation. Not only are we seeing a player in a new situation that always has me worried for fantasy, he also joins up with the least accurate starting quarterback in the league in Josh Allen. Diggs’ production dropped off in 2019 as he finished as the WR24 and his current ADP of the WR25 feels like a ceiling rather than a floor in 2020.
Boom – Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Brown got off to the ultimate boom start as a rookie, putting up 30 points in his first game. Overall it was an up and down first year as he recovered from Lisfranc surgery, but having had the screw removed from his foot this offseason, he is primed for a breakout 2020. He’ll need to get past Mark Andrews to be the true number one on the team, but the raw pace and home run ability means he can off in any week and as a WR2 option for your team, can be a match-up winner for a low draft cost.
Safety First – Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns
The ultimate safety blanket, Landry is criminally under drafted at present, going off the board as the WR29 after finishing 2019 as the WR12. His floor of 80 catches and 1000 yards gives you the perfect WR2/Flex option every single week. At just 27 with six years experience, he’s a valuable asset in all formats.
Bust – Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
It looks like Mack could end up as the odd man out in Indianapolis as the Colts’ used an early second round pick on Jonathan Taylor, a high pedigree running back coming off consecutive 2000 yard seasons with Wisconsin. Mack has been good but not great in his three years in the league, but has offered little in the passing game. With Taylor ready to usurp him as the early down back, and Nyheim Hines set to see increased usage as a pass catcher, Mack is likely to fall down the depth chart and would be a wasted pick at his 6th round ADP.