2020 Fantasy Football Pick One: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz

Fantasy football drafts are all about maximizing value at each spot, whether that means reaching for your guy or picking that stud who looks to be falling for no obvious reason. In this series, I’ve taken a look at groups of 3 players with similar current ADPs and have selected the one I’d be picking if it was me on the clock.

Which quarterback are you taking in the eighth round: Aaron Rodgers (8.05), Matt Ryan (8.09) or Carson Wentz (9.03)

I’m drafting: Matt Ryan

The first time I’m looking at the quarterback position and I’m starting with three players who finished 9th, 10th and 11th in 2019 and should be similar in 2020. My choice of Matt Ryan is based on a couple of factors: health and consistency. Ryan has missed just one game in the past three years compared to eight for Wentz and 11 for Rodgers and over that time, averages 17.9 fantasy points per game and has finished 13th, 2nd and 11th in fantasy scoring. Ryan has the best trios of receivers to throw to of these quarterbacks, with the evergreen beast Julio Jones, one of the best young receivers in the league in Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage, who averaged 11.1 fantasy points over the last six weeks of the 2019 season. With Austin Hooper leaving in free agency, the Falcons brought in Hayden Hurst as his replacement and he should fit nicely into the position as a potential top-10 tight end. The Falcons also added Todd Gurley, who joined from the Rams, and with him Ryan has a back with the potential to be the best he’s had in his time in the NFL, and can easily field 60+ passes. I have Ryan at the QB8 in 2020 and that’s enough for me to be drafting him first if he’s there in Round 8.

Unlike my good buddy Pete, I’m not on the Aaron Rodgers train in 2020 and think this may be the start of a regression in his fantasy output. The clear direction of travel for the Packers is to focus more on the run game, a move to copycat the 49ers, who so unceremoniously ended their season in the NFC Championship game, and this will likely see Rodgers throw the ball less. A lot has been made about the Packers ignoring one of the most receiver heavy draft classes in years, and with no clear number two receiver behind Davante Adams, Rodgers options for consistent targets will be limited. I see him being efficient, but just without the potential upside of Ryan in 2020.

Finally, Carson Wentz and despite the Eagles’ noted lack of talent at the receiver position in 2019, he still managed to put up QB10 points. Yes, he had the ever-versatile Zach Ertz (88 catches, 916 yards), plus a minor breakout from fellow tight end Dallas Goedert (58 catches, 542 yards), but no true receiver had over 500 yards. 2020 looks more promising, with the Eagles drafting three receivers, including Jalen Raegor in the first round, and also trading for Marquise Goodwin. Lots of options makes for a potentially exciting offense, but at the moment I’m not feeling it as much as the explosive Falcons and the arms race in the NFC South. In dynasty I’m taking Wentz as he has eight years on the other guys, but just for 2020, give me Matt Ryan and the Falcons.