2020 Fantasy Football Pick One: David Johnson, Derrius Guice, or Kareem Hunt

Fantasy football drafts are all about maximizing value at each spot, whether that means reaching for your guy or picking that stud who looks to be falling for no obvious reason. In this series, I’ve taken a look at groups of 3 players with similar current ADPs and have selected the one I’d be picking if it was me on the clock.

Which running back are you taking in the sixth round: David Johnson (6.06), Derrius Guice (6.06) or Kareem Hunt (6.06)

I’m drafting: David Johnson

Of these three, I’m taking the path of least resistance to the fantasy bank in what could be the steal of fantasy drafts. I still remain super positive about what David Johnson can provide in fantasy, and I’m riding with the production from his first six games of 2019 where he averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game and looked like pre-injury David Johnson. Yes he got hurt again and promptly lost his job to Kenyan Drake, but the landing spot in Houston couldn’t be better, especially with DeAndre Hopkins’ 150 targets now in Arizona and the Texans are left with a receiving corps of WR2s for Deshaun Watson to throw to. Johnson will eat into Duke Johnson’s targets and could see 75+ targets as well as the bulk of the rushing attempts. I project a top-15 season for Johnson and in the 6th round I’m picking him every time.

Derrius Guice remains a major unknown in fantasy terms. With just five games under his belt in his first two seasons, how he has a 6th round ADP is frankly shocking and a massive projection. He should enter the season as Washington’s lead back, but health will be a major concern and there is a stable of other backs in the position group who can all contribute. Adrian Peterson remains on the roster after rushing for 898 yards in his age 34 season, and Washington added Peyton Barber from the Buccaneers and drafted the intriguing Antonio Gibson in the third round this year and is someone that could transition to be a starter, With all this happening, I’m avoiding Guice in all formats at this price.

I would argue Kareem Hunt is the most talented back on the Browns’ roster, being a true dual threat running back, albeit one that is still finding his feet in the league again after his suspension last season. He won the rushing title as a rookie in 2017 and finished as the RB4 in fantasy with 18.5 points per game and was on pace to smash that in 2018 (20.9 PPG) before he was cut by the Chiefs. His major stumbling block is the presence of Nick Chubb who finished second in rushing yards in 2019 and is the likely first guy on the depth chart to start the season. Add in the wealth of other options in the Cleveland passing attack and touches could come at a premium for Hunt, especially early in the season. I’d love to have him on my roster, but the uncertainty in production at a 6th round ADP means it has to be David Johnson at this spot.