A couple weeks ago I rattled off a few of my favorite early fantasy football ADPs, headlined by Mr. Austin Ekeler (I’m quickly learning I’m going to be buying a ton of Ekeler shares this year, though his ADP as since risen which isn’t great). Since I’ve already touched on ADPs I love, I figure it only makes sense to list a few names who I think are going a little too high for what they’re likely to produce in 2020.
Some of the names on this list I do think will be busts in the traditional sense, but others I simply don’t think will live up to their high price tag. For instance, I think Saquon Barkley is going to be a productive back this year but I’m not sold on spending the second overall pick on him given the small improvements in the Giants offense and their difficult schedule.
Let’s begin! (ADPs via NFFC)
Alvin Kamara - ADP: 1.05, Rank: RB5
In his first season without Mark Ingram in New Orleans, Kamara did not impress in the workhorse role. He only started nine games and had a mere six total touchdowns after scoring double digits in his first two seasons. I don’t think Kamara will finish the RB16 again this year (RB9 in PPR) but I’m not sold that he’s going to magically bounce back to a top 5 back given what we saw last year. Most notably, Kamara went from receiving 46% of the Saints red zone carries in 2018 with Mark Ingram to only 37% last year when he was supposed to be the top dog. I’d much rather have Dalvin Cook or Joe Mixon this year, both of whom are going right around Kamara.
DeAndre Hopkins - ADP: 2.02, Rank: WR3
I’m almost certainly going to live to regret this but too many times I’ve been burned by taking a wide receiver who’s recently changed teams. Look no further than Odell Beckham Jr. heading to the Browns last year. We get all kinds of hyped because on paper, how can you stop Baker Mayfield throwing to Odell, or Kyler Murray throwing to Nuk? You can’t! But there’s a lot more that needs to happen for the hype to play out on the field. Hopkins has the talent that he could step right into Kliff Kingsbury’s system and be a beast from Day 1. It also could take him a bit of time to get used to a new offense, especially with a shortened/maybe no form of training camp. Ultimately, I don’t think Hopkins is going to come any cheaper than the start of the second round, which means I’ll be passing on him in most of my drafts.
Amari Cooper - ADP: 3.07, Rank: WR9
Let me start off by saying I love Amari Cooper and I, along with my dynasty team, hope he has a great season this year. But WR9 is pretty generous given that Cooper finished WR10 last year in PPR and the Cowboys added another elite pass catcher in CeeDee Lamb this offseason. Add that to the fact that Cooper did not have a strong finish to the year—he was the WR26 from Week 10 onwards—and there’s certainly room for worry and doubt to creep in.
Jonathan Taylor - ADP: 3.10, Rank: RB18
We always get hyped about rookies and Taylor heading to a team like the Colts, with one of the best offensive lines in football, certainly creates plenty of excitement. However, let’s not overlook the fact that Taylor will be sharing the backfield with Marlon Mack at the very least and possibly Nyheim Hines who seemingly has the pass catching role locked down. If Taylor was walking into a backfield all to himself, then I’d happily buy him at the end of the third. But Mack is no slouch, finishing last year with 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns despite missing two games. With receivers like D.J. Moore and Beckham going right after Taylor, I’ll pass on the rookie and take a number one pass catcher.
Kyler Murray - ADP: 4.09, Rank: QB3
I am here for the Kyler Murray MVP chatter, but despite what Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson just showed us, it’s not normal for a second year quarterback to win MVP or suddenly become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I believe Murray will at one point in his career be a top 5 fantasy quarterback with regularity but betting on it being this season, one with a weird offseason and a lot of new parts being added, I’m just not sold everything is going to come together as cleanly as people anticipate. I’ll put all my money on Murray being a top eight fantasy QB this year, but going as the QB3 in the fourth round is too rich for my liking (which is a bummer because I was hoping to have a bunch of Murray shares this year).
Devante Parker - ADP: 6.01, Rank WR23
For all the Parker stans out there, who patiently waited five long years for Devante Parker to finally ascend to the top of the fantasy receiver list, well done. I hope you all had him last year and were able to enjoy his reign. I don’t think what we saw from Parker last year was a fluke at all, but I also don’t think we’re going to see him finish the WR11 in PPR leagues again this year. The Dolphins rushing attack won’t be nearly as bad as it was last year and the return of Preston Williams—who more than flashed last year before tearing is ACL—will certainly cap Parker’s value. I understand Parker’s not being drafted like a top 15 wide receiver, but WR23 is still pretty high, especially when you look at the names he’s above. Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, and T.Y. Hilton are all going after Parker. Personally, I’d take any of those names over Parker.
Ronald Jones - ADP: 8.06, Rank: RB35
Hating an eighth round pick may seem like a little much but I have zero faith that Ronald Jones is going to do much of anything fantasy worthy in 2020. Jones had his chance to shine last year and while he had his moments, he didn’t do enough to consistently lock down the backfield, starting just nine games. It’s also not a great sign that the Buccaneers spent a third round pick on rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a back who pairs ever so nicely with what Tom Brady likes to do. Who’d you rather have: James White or Ronald Jones? Even without Brady in New England, I’d still pick James White.