Fantasy football drafts are all about maximizing value at each spot, whether that means reaching for your guy or picking that stud who looks to be falling for no obvious reason. In this new series, I’ve taken a look at groups of 3 players with similar current ADPs and have selected the one I’d be picking if it was me on the clock.
I’m drafting: Joe Mixon
This is a close one for me but if I’m picking at the back end of Round 1 then I’m going with the guy with the clearest path to success in 2020. On a points per game basis, Mixon had the lowest of the three in 2019 at 14.1 vs 14.6 for Jacobs and 15.6 for Chubb, but was on a nose-diving team that ultimately ended up with the number one pick. Fast forward to this year and things are looking up in Cincinnati, with Joe Burrow stepping in at quarterback and A.J. Green hopefully healthy, the Bengals’ offense could be a frisky proposition. Mixon is the clear number one in his backfield and is the best all-round back of the three, having caught over 100 passes through his three year career to date.
Though Chubb had a great 2019 for the Browns, and only just missed out finishing as the league’s leading rusher, his points per game dropped from 18.2 to 13.0 after Kareem Hunt joined the team from suspension in Week 10. I’d also argue that Hunt is the more talented running back, who will see a big uptick in touches this year, especially in the passing game and Chubb will see a regression.
Josh Jacobs had a great rookie season until a shoulder injury ended things prematurely. However, he is the most one-dimensional of the three, seeing just 27 targets in 13 games so was not a massive factor in the passing game. The 2020 Raiders have invested in their receiving options in the draft, suggesting they will look to expand their pass attack as they look to compete with the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the AFC West.
Which back are you picking?
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