Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. On top of that, I’ll bring you some news, statistical trends from the past few days, some studs/duds from the last slate of games, and much more!
Hoop Land Times: News and notes from around the Association
- We’re just a few weeks away from the playoffs, Brooklyn is a lock to make it there, yet the Nets fired head coach Kenny Atkinson yesterday. No one understands the move, except perhaps Kyrie Irving.
- The Sixers expect to have Ben Simmons back before the start of the playoffs, but those are just hopes and nothing is set in stone. We’ll see how this develops.
- Gelo Ball is finally, officially a G League player for the OKC Blue.
- The Bucks seem to be playing it safe with Giannis and his knee. They have clinched a spot in the playoffs and are going to be the no. 1 seed in the East no matter what, so it’s pretty reasonable.
- You can safely fade Malcolm Brogdon for the next few games. MB is injured and listed as week-to-week, which is way worse than day-to-day and will keep him out for a while.
Duds and Studs: Last night slate roundup
- Absolutely disastrous set of performances those we watched yesterday. James Harden wasn’t even part of the main slate but I have to include him here, as he was the only guy to break the 60-DKFP barrier. Harden had the best game of the day (he needed 45+ minutes, though) and finished with 68 DKFP to the tune of a sweet 30-10-14 triple-double to go with a couple of steals. The shooting was horrific, though, with just a 36.4 percent from the floor on 22 attempts. Counting turnovers, JH went for the quad-dub as he logged 10 lost balls... and five personal fouls just to round the night.
- Only Jonas Valanciunas (58.75 DKFP; 27-17-2 with 3 blocks) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (52.25; 27-5-8-1-1 with 7 triples) were able to get into the 50-to-60 DKFP clip.
- Sad having to mention some of these names here but what can I do... JoCollins had 49 DKFP, Horford 48, Wood 46.75, Morant 46.25... Man, this is so depressing...
- At least we had a clear ROI King in Matthew Dellavedova, who started again for the Cavs and reached 36 DKFP at just $3.1K helping Cleveland get the W against Denver with a moderately nice 7-6-14-1 effort.
- Three more good value-plays: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Glenn Robinson III (32 at $3.9K), and Valanciunas.
- And the DOTS Award goes to... The Expensive Trifecta! So bad was the night that the three most-expensive players part of the main slate put on serious duds. Trae finished with 30.25 DKFP while having the highest price ($10.1K). Lillard could only get 29.25 points at $9.6K, and Jokic brought the group together with 30 fantasy points at $9.4K.
- As expected, we only had six dub-dubs on points and rebounds (Chriss and Tristan Thompson missed on it by one point, no player finished with nine boards) and just one between points and dimes (Delly missed on it by three points...).
- Shouts to Harden again for logging a trip-dub, even if he didn’t attend the main party. The line read 30-10-14 with 10 turnovers. So Hardenesque.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from the past seven days
- We might be talking a little bit more about Mike Scott. With Philly decimated by injuries all around the roster, Scott has stepped up his game and in the last seven days (four games played averaging 30 mpg) he’s kept up a nice 11-8-3-1 line while hitting 2.5 triples per game on a paltry 13% usage rate. He mos def making the most of his chances, so you should take advantage before the top-dogs come back.
- The whole fantasy world is being a little slow catching up to Norman Powell exploits, as his price/ownership is not incredibly high yet even though he’s averaged a 29-4-2-2-1 stuffed line in 38.7 minutes per game during the last week. The Raps are already a playoff team (officially clinched a couple of days ago) so it’s not out of the equation that Norman keeps logging heavy minutes as Toronto rotates the top-tier guys to keep them fresh come April.
- Silly cheap values: Shaq Harrison (15-3-2-3-1 in 25.3 mpg), Danuel House (12-3-2-1-1 in 26.3), Tyus Jones (12-2-6-2 in 19), Donte DiVincenzo (12-6-4-1-1 in 25), Brandon Knight (16-3-6-1 in 30.3), Gary Harris (14-4-3-3-1 in 31.8)
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Kristaps (33-12-4-1-5 in 36.7), Sexton (33-5-5-2 in 41), LeVert (31-6-7-1 in 31.7), Zo (22-9-8-2-1 in 35.8)
- Some very expensive players not doing enough to help their owners: Lillard (19-3-6-1 in 34), Dinwiddie (12-2-6-1-1 in 25), Ingram (20-4-3-1-1 in 36.3), DLo (16-5-6-1 in 30.3)
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Josh Jackson (17 ppg in 20.5 mpg), Brandon Knight (15.7 in 30.3), Cedi Osman (15.7 in 39.7)
- Cheap threes: Duncan Robinson (6.7 3pm in 36), Mychal Mulder (3.3 in 29.8), Shaq Harrison (2.7 in 28)
- Cheap boards: Willy Hernangomez (9 in 19), Josh Hart (7 in 21.8), Alex Len (6.8 in 16)
- Cheap dimes: Matthew Dellavedova (9 in 31.7), Jordan McLaughlin (6.3 in 22.5), Joe Ingles (5.5 in 27.8)
- Cheap steals: Gary Harris (2.5 in 31.8), Delon Wright (2.3 in 27.5), Tyus Jones (2 in 19)
- Cheap blocks: Nerlens Noel (2.7 in 16), JaVale McGee (2.7 in 19.3), Derrick White (2 in 22.7)
- Cheap shooting: Duncan Robinson (56.5 fg% on 11.3 fga), Bobby Portis (55.9% on 12), Rudy Gay (53.7% on 10)
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: (PG) Goran Dragic, MIA ($5600, at WAS): You have to go all the way down to the 50th spot of today’s slate price list to find Goran. That, to me, is insane. Sure, Dragic is just a 29-DKFP player on the season and he’s only logging 28.5 mpg off the bench, but you won’t find a cheaper play with greater upside attached to it, much less facing a softer cupcake of a team as Washington is. It’s almost impossible to have Goran underperforming giving his price, and his last game marked the first time he’s dropped under 20 DKFP since Jan. 12! Some fools would think Dragic is a must-fade given that 19.75-DKFP performance a couple of nights ago, but was the outlier in a series of good games since the ASW break. In his prior eight games Dragic was averaging 33 DKFP, playing like a top-35 player, putting up 19-4-6-1 lines and leading Miami’s second unit with a very healthy 26% usage rate on offense. The minutes aren’t that low for a reserve, as he’s averaging more than 30 mpg, and he’s had two 40+ DKFP games in his last four. Gifted goodies at a steep discount.
- Hate: (SF) Khris Middleton, MIL ($9000, at PHO): Not that Phoenix scares anyone, that’s for sure, but Milwaukee itself poses more than a serious reason to fade anyone even remotely linked to the Bucks franchise. See, Giannis is out with a knee injury and Milwaukee won’t risk a single bit of him in preparation for its postseason run. Midd should be the go-to guy tonight, and he probably will be, but that doesn’t mean he will stay on the court for more than 30 minutes—assuming he even reaches them. Khris played more than 36 against the Lakers just a couple of days ago, and that was something he had not done since Feb. 24 versus Washington and not since Jan. 31 before that. Not only does Midd play low minutes, but he’s also in the middle of a shaky stretch spanning four games in which he has not topped 36 DKFP. The tallies read 36, 23, 33, and 26, and Milwaukee is very comfortable with K-Midd scoring his 15 points and getting 5 and 5 boards and dimes at most. Don’t pay this much for that type of meh production and invest in better plays.
- Love: (SG/SF) DeMar DeRozan, SAS ($7300, at CLE): Although DeDe had a bit of a disappointing second half of February with just one booming performance against Dallas (51.5 fantasy points; 27-8-9-1) and started March slow (27.5 DKFP on Mar. 2) he’s followed that with steady improvements to get 36.25 points (dub-dubbing) in his second game of the month against Charlotte and then 43.5 facing Brooklyn two days ago (falling just one rebound short of another dub-dub). No reason to think he can’t keep raising his fantasy tallies tonight versus a team like Cleveland that might score in bunches but knows no defensive arts. DeRozan has been great putting up numbers across all categories while keeping the turnovers and the personal fouls completely at bay, which has raised his value a ton. He’s dropping 18+ points, grabbing 8+ boards, and dishing out 8+ dimes nightly while shooting over 50% since the break. This is the DeDe we love and praise.
- Hate: (C) Aron Baynes, PHO ($8000, vs MIL): Congratulations to the algorithm because he finally pulled it off. The prophecy has finally been fulfilled. Never, not ever in the time of existence of this the world of our lord, has a $5K bump occurred from one game to the next one. Lo and behold, Mythical Aron. Just two days after having a 37-16 double-double, just two days after hitting 9 triples, just two days after reaching 69.5 DKFP, and just two days after being a mediocre $3K player, Aron Baynes is tagged at $8K today. WHAT. THE. HECK. Now let me tell you something. What happened the other day with Baynes was the weirdest and most bizarre thing to ever happen in fantasy basketball this season, let alone the NBA. I already told you in this column that Baynes literally broke how ROI works. No freaking body expected that kind of performance. And no freaking body should count on Baynes putting on a similar game today. Do you know how many fantasy points should Baynes get tonight to reach the same ROI he did against Portland? 185 DKFP. Baynes needed to play 14 games combined prior to that one to get over 169 DKFP, going back to Jan. 3. LOL. 185 DKFP would need Baynes to have something like a 100-point, 35-rebound, 30-assist performance at the very least. Totally at reach. Hahahahahaha!
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!