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NBA DFS: DraftKings data analysis and basketball news for Thursday, Mar. 12th

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Duds and studs. Good and bad plays. We take a look at the past and upcoming NBA games to let you know what’s going on and how to tackle your DraftKings plays.

New Orleans Pelicans v Sacramento Kings Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. On top of that, I’ll bring you some news, statistical trends from the past few days, some studs/duds from the last slate of games, and much more!

Hoop Land Times: News and notes from around the Association

  • It was just a matter of time. The NBA season has been suspended until further notice.
  • Coronavirus has reached the USA and the infections seem to have ramped up lately. Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19.
  • This is shocking, but not surprising. I’m writing this from Europe and if you’ve been following the news you know how things have gone around these places. Italy is pretty much locked down to the extreme (only pharmacies and supermarkets remain open in the whole country, and movement is absolutely restricted between places, let alone getting in/out of the country). Spain is following a pretty similar pattern and cases are jumping by the minute. The concern is for real, and most sports competitions have been suspended around here.
  • People were thinking closing doors was going to be enough, seemingly without realizing athletes are human beings too and it’s not just ten of them on a court, or 22 on a soccer field. It’s those guys plus the coaches, and the staff who brings the equipment, and the people getting the venues ready, etc, etc... All of them are vulnerable, at least as much as you and I are. Gobert might have been the first high-profile sportsment to test positive, but again, it’s just a matter of days—hours, if you ask me—we start to write more worldwide known names in the column of infected people.
  • Be safe out there, fam. Wash your hands, avoid too much unnecessary contact—it sucks, but do it for the good of everybody, seriously—but always keep your daily activities going. Don’t panic. The cases are multiplying but there is no reason to think you’re going to have it rough with CV. Hoping for the best, for you and those you’re close to.
  • On better news, JoJo Embiid came back from his injury yesterday and with the league on hiatus now it’s all good for the Sixers, who were also waiting for updates and improvements from Ben Simmons and will now have the proper time for him to rehab and the team to get him back in time for when all of this goes away and the ball rolls again.
  • We learnt yesterday that DeMar DeRozan will most probably opt out of his current deal and enter free agency this summer. I have no intel, because I’m just a fool writing about hoops, but had I to bet I’d say DeDe will be on the look for a max wherever it comes from to ride his last basketball days as he pleases, cash in big-time, and just forget about the chip. He couldn’t win the O’B with a rather nice Raps team and I don’t see Double-D adapting his mid-range game or reducing his role a lot in any contender, much less dropping money doing so. Great fantasy player yesterday, today, tomorrow, and forever.
  • Sorry if I missed any other big news today, but it’s been so crazy bunch of hours lately so it’s all kind of messed up and something might have slipped through the cracks.

Duds and Studs: Last night slate roundup

  • Incredibly surprising to find Trae Young leading a slate, right? Wrong. Trae just dominates, and he had the best night yesterday in which we hope is not the last one of the season. Young reached 62.5 DKFP with a 46-2-11 effort that included 6 triples and in which he toyed with a 40% usage rate. Insane numbers.
  • Five players in the 50-to-60 DKFP clip, including our latest slate-breaker in Boban Marjanovic who gave fits to the Nuggets with a monster 57.75-DKFP game in which he posted a 31-17 dub-dub including a dime and a couple of thefts.
  • The other four: Randle (54.5), Embiid (54.5) coming back from injury, Christian Wood (53.75) and Luka (53).
  • Remember how just a few days ago Aron Baynes broke the game with his impossible performance that, in al seriousness, came out of nowhere? Well, not only did Boban Marjanovic did so yesterday becoming the last ROI King of this column, but he also was this close to breaking Baynes’ record ROI with a mark of 19.25. He did so after getting 57.75 fantasy points at the laughable price of $3K.
  • Two more great values: Caleb Martin posting 41.25 DKFP at $4K and Moe Harkless with 32 at $3.2K.
  • And the DOTS Award goes to... Tobias Harris! Not the worst of performances, but his 31.75 DKFP were way short of his price tag of $8.5K.
  • Not a lot of horrific plays yesterday, but a bunch of truly bad ones in Shake Milton (19.5 at $6.2K), Goran Dragic (16.25 at $5.5K), Mike Scott (14.75 at $4.8K) and Jerami Grant (12.5 at $4.6K).
  • Only seven dub-dubs via points and boards (Dedmon and Crowder missed on it by four and two points respectively, while Delon Wright fell one single rebound short of it) and three on points and assists (Luka just needed one more dime but missed on it).

What’s cooking? Statistical trends from the past seven days

  • We’re entering unknown territory with the league suspended, so let’s just review what the last week has given us in terms of valuable names.
  • You know about Aron Baynes exploits, but the averages are definitely inflated because of his explosion a few days ago. Ayton might be back when things resume, so don’t be overly high on Baynes.
  • Dellavedova looks as good as ever and should keep his level up. Same with Shaq Harrison, Caleb Martin, and Derrick White.
  • I’m not so high on Michael Carter-Williams and DJ Augustin. Both are vets on limited minutes and it is not that they need tons of run to prove their worth, but rather patches to throw here and there so watch out for potential drops in performance if only because of the low minutes on the court.
  • More established players have thrived leading up to this hiatus: Devonte’ Graham has regained his early-days form, same as Serge Ibaka and Ricky Rubio.
  • Someone still cheap for his contributions is Myles Turner, who has had a season to forget if looked at from a distance, but who was playing quality ball lately.
  • On a pretty low playing time it’s worth mentioning the exploits of Frank Ntilikina, JaMychal Green, Kyle Korver and Dragan Bender. Keep in mind that those are all pretty risky plays and fliers not to trust in DFS at all.
  • Silly cheap values: Shaq (13-7-4-3-2 in 32.3 mpg), Delly (10-3-11-1 in 36.3), Caleb (14-2-2-2-1 in 26.8), Baynes (23-8-1-1-1 in 34), Augustin (19-2-4 in 25), MCW (18-2-3-1 in 24)
  • A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Devonte’ Graham (26-2-7-2 in 36.8), Ibaka (18-12-4-0-1 in 33.3), Rubio (20-8-11-2 in 35), Saric (20-8-1-1 in 34)
  • Some very expensive players not doing enough to help their owners: Donovan Mitchell (16-4-2-1 in 33), Gobert (8-8-2-2-2 in 32.7), DLo (17-6-4-2 in 30), Wiggins (17-5-3 in 25.3), Randle (21-9-2-1 in 31)
  • Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Augustin (19.3 ppg in 25 mpg), MCW (17.7 in 24), Reddish (17.5 in 28.5)
  • Cheap threes: Korver (3 3pm in 16.3), Caleb Martin (2.8 in 26.8), Bradley (2.7 in 31)
  • Cheap boards: Zubac (10.3 in 17.3), Dedmon (9.5 in 23.5), JaMychal Green (7.7 in 19.3)
  • Cheap dimes: Delly (11 in 36.3), Cody Martin (5.8 in 32), Mykhailiuk (5 in 24.3)
  • Cheap steals: Shaq (2.7 in 32.3), Delon Wright (2.3 in 24.5), Gary Harris (2.3 in 30.3)
  • Cheap blocks: Derrick White (2.3 in 28.7), Shaq (2 in 32.3), Iguodala (1.7 in 19.7)
  • Cheap shooting: Joe Harris (64.5 fg% on 11.3 fga), Jeff Green (60.9% on 9.8), DJ Augustin (56.3% on 9.7)

If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!