Monday Night Football preview: What to expect fantasy-wise from Falcons at Packers

Monday Night’s prime time game, Falcons at Packers, features a pair of offenses capable of producing the highest point total of Week 4. Smoke ‘em, if ya got ‘em.

Atlanta Falcons

As is tradition under offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, Matt Ryan is top 5 (or better) in passing attempts (128), passing yards (961), and passing touchdowns (7). Against a Green Bay Packers defense who’s allowed the NFL’s 3rd-highest passing touchdown total (7), Ryan is a locked-in QB1.

Julio Jones was kept out of last week’s outing (hamstring) but it seems clear that third-year wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, has taken the mantle as Atlanta’s No. 1 pass catcher. Ridley is fantasy’s top scoring wide receiver across all formats, 6th in the NFL in receptions (21), 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards (349), and 1st in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (4). His 44.73% of the team’s air yards is 5th-highest in the league and his 16.5 average targeted air yards is the 7th-deepest, 0.1-yards behind Julio Jones. Ridley has also dominated his team’s red zone target market share at a rate of 33.33%. Early in the week, Ridley did have an ankle injury scare but was then able to record back-to-back limited sessions on Thursday and Friday. Adding an extra day of rest by playing on Monday night, we can expect him to be near 100%. Fire him up as an elite WR1 fantasy option. Likewise, Julio Jones managed limited practice sessions through every practice this week, nursing his hamstring, and is locked and loaded as a high-end WR1 as well.

Russell Gage racked up flex-worthy totals in Weeks 1 and 2 before being knocked out of Week 3’s contest with a concussion. He’s back though, and ready to continue taking most of the fantasy value we all expected tight end Hayden Hurst to inherit this year. Expect Gage to continue his flexy ways with his 18.46% target market share.

Hayden Hurst has made lemonade with his No. 4 pecking order ranking, bumping former dual threat Todd Gurley down a few pegs. Hurst’s respectable TE10 results in .5PPR are an accurate representation of what we can again expect from him this week. Start him confidently as a back-end TE1.

Todd Gurley remains the team’s lead back, despite the decent play of No. 2 running back Brian Hill. The lead back duty hasn’t resulted in gaudy totals but his 80.00% control of the team’s red zone rushes cements his opportunity as a high-end bet for weekly scores. That said, Green Bay has been solid against opposing run games and Brian Hill will be a factor between the 20s. Gurley is a high-end flex option while Hill is a wait-and-see low-end one.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay continues to face teams that rip them out of their preferred sloggy game scripts, to the benefit of everyone. Through three contests, Aaron Rodgers holds the overall QB6 reins. Given the positive match-ups of others and the initial question as to Davante Adams’ availability, Rodgers finds himself in the QB10 spot in Fake Teams’ rankings but his ceiling is as high as it ever is.

Update 10/5/20: Davante Adams announced on Twitter that he would not be able to play on Monday night. He subsequently deleted the post, leaving some doubt as to the truth. Should Adams sit, MVS becomes a candidate for double-digit targets and his fantasy ceiling would sky-rocket. Darrius Shepherd would also become a viable flex option and Robert Tonyan would be considered an elite option at the tight end position. Stay tuned.

All star wide receiver, Davante Adams, was held out of Week 3’s game against New Orleans with hamstring injury. Fortune has returned to Green Bay though and Adams was able to produce limited participation in every practice this week. He’s a high-end WR1 against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 2nd-most passing game yardage and the most passing game touchdowns. Even with the healing hammy, Adams needs to be in your lineup.

With Allen Lazard being placed on Injured Reserve this week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling—the ever booming and busting receiver—is provided an excellent opportunity for a boom week. Lazard’s team-leading, albeit in a three-way tie with Adams and MVS, 18.02% target market share should pay dividends as it’s absorbed by the remaining pass catchers. An extra two targets for MVS goes along for the NFL leader in average targeted air yards (18.4) as each shot tends to come as a high-value downfield attempt.

Darrius Shepherd is likely to take on No. 3 WR duties with Lazard out, but he’ll have a tough time making any noise behind breakout tight end Robert “Big Bob” Tonyan. Tonyan has touchdowns in back-to-back games with a great shot of pulling the hat-trick against a Falcons defense that just made Jimmy Graham look like the 2013 version of himself. Tonyan is a studly TE1 option.

Despite oftentimes splitting reps with backup running back Jamaal Williams, lead back Aaron Jones has severely out-touched his sidekick with 50 carries to 21 carries and 18 targets to five targets, helping Jones along in his quest to buck touchdown regression. Coupling Jones’ heavy, dual threat usage and the Falcons’ complete inability to stop the pass, we can expect another RB1 outing as the Packers routinely visit Atlanta’s red zone—an area where Jones owns team-leading usage marks in both targets (8, a rate of 28.57%) and carries (11, a rate of 68.75%). Jamaal Williams has an outside shot at a touchdown, should Jones need a breather but that shot is a long one.

Rookie running back A.J. Dillon is not fantasy-relevant at this time.