Week 1 Bold Predictions: Michael Thomas gets off to a rough start

Prediction 1: Lamar Jackson throws for a career high yards vs. Miami this week.

Justification: For the record that is 205 passing yards so not necessarily to the moon. I said I’m bullish on Lamar passing more this year than he did last season. Last year 13 out of the 17 QBs who faced Miami threw for this many yards. The ones who did not: Blaine Gabbert & Marcus Mariota shared Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and Blake Bortles.

Prediction 2: Thursday’s game has Bears -3. Give me Packers -4.

Justification: I believe in Matt LaFleur. I believe in Aaron Rodgers. I believe in the Packers to do what they did last year in Week 1 vs. the Bears (win..and by more than one point this time). Most of all, I believe in the Packers defense that has recently been invested in, to come through big.

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Prediction 3: Michael Thomas is the #1 projected WR in Week 1 but he will not be a top seven WR this week.

Justification: They face Houston who allowed the 10^th fewest points to WR last year. In fact, his current projections have him around 88-95 yards with a 60% chance of a receiving touchdown. Last year Houston allowed eight receivers to get at least 88 yards. They allowed 12 receiving touchdowns. The combination of both, which is what Michael would need to be a top five WR: three players (Corey Davis, Robby Anderson and Nelson Agholor). Meanwhile the players that did had either 88 yards or a receiving touchdown: Odell Beckham Jr, T.Y. Hilton and Jarvis Landry. I’m not so naïve to think Michael Thomas does not have one or the other: last year he had just six games where he did not score at least one touchdown or get 85 yards, but I think he only gets one of those two.

Prediction 4: Colts at Chargers over/under is 44.5, give me the under at 40.5.

Justification: The Chargers scored over 28 points six times last year (four times on the road, twice at home). Let’s assume for this walk through that they score 27 points. In 2017, Jacoby Brissett went to the west coast twice, scoring nine points the first game vs. the Los Angeles Rams and 16 points the second time vs. Seattle. He’s facing Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and the other chargers defense who allowed the 10^th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks last season. I see this being a 24-14 type of game.

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Prediction 5: Will Dissly (3% owned) is a top six TE this week.

Justification: The most important argument in favor of Will is his opponent. The Cincinnati Bengals allowed the fourth most points to opposing TE’s last season. Inclusive of this effort against the Bengals are 12 TE who had at least 50 yards or one receiving touchdown. Last year Will Dissly had targets in four games, in three of those four games he caught at least 60% of the balls thrown to him and in two of those games he had a receiving touchdown. With Doug Baldwin gone receptions need to go somewhere Tyler Lockett will get some and DK Metcalf will likely get some but I see Will Dissly getting a fair share in week 1.