Prediction 1: Josh Allen is projected as the 16th best QB this week against the amazing Patriots defense, he finishes as a top 7 QB
Justification: I hope this one is bold enough for people. Keep in mind NE has not allowed an offensive TD this year and that stops this week. With 105 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, Allen is 2nd among QBs behind Lamar Jackson but beyond that he’s 17th in passing yards this year, 24th in getting sacked (good offensive line and talented footwork), and he has a 51 yard completion already. Finally, the Bills defense is good and will keep them competing in this game.
Prediction 2: Miles Sanders will be a top 10 RB this week against the Packers
Justification: Last week solidified to me the emergence of Miles as the top RB for the Eagles. They opened up the playbook, he had 13 attempts going for not only 50 rushing yards but he had 70 receiving yards too. Even with a vulture TD from Jordan Howard, he had 14.6 points putting him 21st among RBs. This week he faces Green Bay who has allowed 80 yards and 1 TD to a RB each of the last two weeks.
Prediction 3: Julio Jones is projected as a top six WR this week but he finishes outside the top 25
Justification: Julio has four touchdowns in three games (most receiving TDs in NFL) so far with 265 yards (14th most among WR) against the Eagles, Vikings and Colts. Philadelphia and Minnesota have great run defense but not great secondaries. Conversely Indianapolis has a solid secondary but more porous rush defense. There is a trend going on though, each game he has been targeted less as Atlanta has now gone more run intensive. Devonta Freeman has seen his rushing attempts go up each game over that time frame such that he rushed for twice as many times in game 3 as he did in game 1. The second part to this, if they get ahead even modestly early, I think they try to drain the clock.
Prediction 4: Tampa Bay D/ST (9% owned) will be a top ten D/ST against the Rams this week
Justification: I completely get the notion that their defense is terrible but there is more to it so stick with me. Their secondary is terrible, probably bottom five in the NFL, this is why they were exploited by San Francisco (who spreads out the ball) and New York Giants (where Daniel Jones was slinging the ball) and struggled against Carolina on the road to Cam Newton who is what he is right now. Their rush defense is a different story, Lavonte David, Vita Vea, William Gholston, Shaquil Barrett (who has 8 sacks!) are decent. Here is why this is important, I don’t think Jared Goff is that good (not at least right now), he’s 19th in passing yards, 21st in completion percentage, 20th in passing touchdowns and sixth in interceptions! Cleveland showed last week with half their secondary out to injury that LAR’s running game is where the action is.
Prediction 5: The Chargers are at -15.5 against the Dolphins this weekend at Miami, give me Miami +6.5 in this game
Justification: Look, I’m not saying the Dolphins win this one, but I don’t think they keep it the difference in single digits for the first time this season. My three main reasons: First, Josh Rosen looked good in stints last week vs. Dallas, his overall stat line wasn’t great but he showed the flashes you want to see in his first full start in Miami. Second, the Chargers will be run heavy which should eat away at the clock. Finally, I think Xavien Howard could be difficult for Phillip Rivers who for three seasons has had lower completion percentages, rating, yards you name it not only on the road vs. home but September vs. October and November.
Recapping Week 3
Prediction 1: Teddy Bridgewater throws for 300+ yards and 2 touchdowns in his second start since 2015
Recap: Teddy did a good job of coming away with a win over Seattle (who is NOT good at home) and he DID throw for 2 touchdown as I predicted but he fell woefully short on passing yards with just 177. I judge these based how much they help your fantasy team and he finished as the 20th best QB. If he was still top 12 with those figures I’d be happy but 20th best doesn’t help anyone. (Grade: C)
Prediction 2: Davante Adams is projected as a top 10 WR, he will not finish in the top 25
Recap: My main reasons for this were Denver’s defense is good (false) and that I think Davante won’t be the focal point in a number of games this year (true). Davante finished the day as the 49th best WR with 56 receiving yards across 3 catches (one of which was 40 yards). (Grade: A)
Prediction 3: I have not seen a line on the Carolina vs. Arizona game (likely due to the uncertainty on who is starting for the Panthers) but give me Arizona -8.
Recap: This was definitely my clunker of the week, Carolina (specifically Kyle Allen) CRUSHED Arizona’s Defense. I’m not willing to give up on the Cardinals yet, I think this offense can wow people down the stretch. (Grade: D)
Prediction 4: Frank Gore is currently listed as the 40th best RB, he finishes as a top 15 RB this week
Recap: He finished the game with 75 yards and a TD which put him as a top ten RB on the week. This was not a one time thing, it will continue. (Grade: A)
Prediction 5: Josh Lambo has more points in week 3 than he had in weeks 1 and 2 combined
Results: Josh Lambo (and Jacksonville) surprised many with a big win over Tennessee. He hit two FG over 40 yards and finally added some much needed PAT and was a top seven kicker on the week. (Grade B)
2019 YTD Grades:
Grade A: 5
Grade B: 3
Grade C: 2
Grade D: 4