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There are a few obvious quarterbacks that I’m sure every fantasy team are avoiding (see: Foles, Nick) but you might be surprised at some of the big name QBs this season who have one too many question marks surrounding them.
With QB Week at its end, it’s time to hear which signal callers the staff here at Fake Teams are avoiding at all costs in their fantasy drafts.
Patrick Mahomes
Current FFC ADP: 3.01
Pete Rogers: Close your eyes. Imagine you have the first pick of your fantasy draft. You’ve nailed your first two picks and now the snake curls back around and you’re sitting there at 3.01 looking at names like Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen. Tell me, are you passing on those guys for Patrick Mahomes? I understand that he lit the world on fire and threw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns last year, but—keep your eyes close—do you really think he’s going to put that level of production up again? I’m not saying Mahomes is going to suddenly turn into a pumpkin; I’m saying you better damn well know you’re getting 50+ touchdowns from him to be picking him atop the third round.
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Drew Brees
Current FFC ADP: 7.04
Paddi Cooper: 2019 won’t be a cratering season for Brees as he will continue to be as efficient as ever, but gone are the days of 5000 yard, 40 TDs seasons. Call me crazy, but I don’t think Brees will be draftable in single QB leagues.
Kyler Murray
Current FFC ADP: 8.06
Clark Barnes: I feel like this is shooting fish in a barrel to put rookie QB on the avoid list, but the hype on Murray is a little crazy. Murray may end up one of the greatest of all time, but it seems to me like he’s getting a whole lot of credit for what Baker Mayfield did last year.I’m hopeful for Murray long term, but he shouldn’t be anything more than an end of the draft flyer.
Heath Capps: I can’t pay an expectant price for Kyler Murray, not when I know I can land Lamar Jackson or Mitchell Trubisky a round or two later (depending on the format). Lamar Jackson has already shown me he can be a top-10 quarterback, due mostly to his extreme rushing volume a year ago. I’d rather bank on the guy that I’ve already seen do it before, and that’s just a philosophical thing with me. I’m basing this on the fact that the NFL is hard--something no one should disagree with.
Jared Goff
Current FFC ADP: 9.08
Mark Abell: Jared Goff and the inevitable Super Bowl loss hangover. Here are the last three Super Bowl losing QBs in the next season:
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L Super Bowl Cam Newton
Super Bowl Season: 3,837 yards, 35 TDs, 10 INTs
Next season: 3,302 yards, 19 TDs, 14 INTs -
LI Super Bowl Matt Ryan
Super Bowl season: 4,944 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs
Next season: 4,095 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs -
LII Super Bowl Tom Brady
Super Bowl season: 4,577 yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs
Next season: 4,355 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs
Even the GOAT Brady was not immune to this (as he traveled to a Super Bowl win the next season), the trend is an average of 12% fewer yards, 34% fewer TDs and 50% more Interceptions. This would put Goff at 4,125 yards (12th most), 21 TDs (17th most) and 17 INT (most in NFL). He is currently being viewed as a top 12 QB and I see him more around 14-16. The final piece, Jared had a top five QBR in the league when unpressured; once he was under pressure, it dropped to 25th. The Rams continue to have excellent tackles but a new center and replaced guard mean the line could be down slightly from where they were last year.