The art of drafting is just as much about knowing who’s overpriced as well as who offers great value and being able to identify those receivers who should be avoided is only getting more important as the NFL gets more and more pass heavy.
I’ve identified 5 players who based on their current PPR ADP from fantastfootballcalculator.com are primed to under perform in 2019 and should be avoided at the current draft price.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
Current ADP - 3.04 (WR 10)
I should start by saying this is not about Andrew Luck’s mysterious calf/ankle injury as until Luck is not on the field, I’m not worried about the Colts’ offense in 2019. Hilton however does worry me. He played most of 2018 battling various ankle injuries and still managed to finish as the WR14 but I still forecast regression. Indy have spent the off-season adding weapons to their offense, with Devin Funchess coming in via free agency and Parris Campbell coming in as a second round draft pick and lighting up training camp. Add to that a pair of pass catching tight ends in Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle who will eat up targets and Hilton is poised to see a decrease in the 120 targets he saw in 2018. I also don’t like the look of the opposition as the Colts face 6 projected top-10 defenses in 2019 and Hilton averages just 12.1 ppr points per game against top-10 defenses over the past 3 years, 19th best over that period.
Draft instead: Keenan Allen (ADP 3.05)
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
Current ADP - 4.12 (WR 18)
Before Marvin Jones went on IR in 2018, he was seeing more targets than Golladay in the Lions’ offense. Jones is back, though he’s dealing with an undisclosed injury but assuming full health to start the season, I’m much higher on Jones’ 9th round ADP. The Lions are also likely to be more run heavy too, as they’ve brought in new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who led the run-heavy Seahawks offense for 7 years. It’s also as simple as looking at the current ADP, as I prefer any of the next 5 receivers over Golladay heading into 2019.
Draft instead: Take your pick but my top alternate is Tyler Lockett (ADP 5.01)
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
Current ADP - 5.09 (WR 26)
A team’s number one receiver should represent good value if you can get them at the start of the 6th round. However all the buzz from training camp is pointing towards Curtis Samuel being the top receiver on the roster, and with Samuel going 3 rounds later and having out targeted Moore over the last 6 games of last season, he represents much better value. Also I’m not buying in yet on the super positive reporting about Cam Newton’s shoulder, as let’s face it, his passing accuracy is shaky at the best of times.
Draft instead: Robby Anderson (ADP 6.12)
Dante Pettis, San Francisco 49ers
Current ADP - 7.05 (WR 31)
Pettis is currently seeing a round 7 ADP despite just 45 targets and 27 catches as a rookie. I have huge trust in the Kyle Shanahan offense and believe Jimmy Garoppolo will come back and be a quality starting quarterback. However with George Kittle locked in as the number 1 option and lots of mouths to feed across their wide receivers and running backs, I’m happy to let Pettis be someone else’s problem as I look for value further down the draft board.
Draft instead: Marvin Jones (ADP 8.03)
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
Current ADP - 7.10 (WR 34)
This is the fantasy equivalent of kicking a puppy but I think Larry Legend’s time has now passed. We don’t truly know what Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is going to look like until it takes the field in Week 1, but I think Larry is going to be one season too long in the league for him to play much of a role. Younger, speedier receivers have been added to the roster, and David Johnson is in line to see 100 targets in an offense we’ve seen make a feature of a pass-catching running back. Sorry Larry.
Draft instead: Courtland Sutton (ADP 9.09)
Which receiver are you passing on in your drafts?
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