No QB throws for more than 40 touchdowns this year after Patrick Mahommes III threw for 50 last year
Justification: Behind Patrick last year, the next closest was big Ben with 39 touchdowns. If you look at the last five years, Aaron Rodgers through 40 touchdowns in 2016 and Andrew Luck threw 40 touchdowns in 2014, that’s IT for QBs getting to this threshold. Don’t get me wrong Patrick Mahommes is amazing and the league continues to allow WR more space and less interference but I am trusting that football teams spent the whole offseason studying his habits and working on ways to slow him down. Plus players notoriously have ups and downs, a slightly down year, perhaps he doesn’t have two six touchdown games (instead maybe they are 2 touchdown games), either way, I think Mahommes is still great but more like 39 touchdowns great (or about 1.5 fewer TDs per game).
Of the previous six times a QB had 45 TD passes in a season, only once did that player reach 40 TD passes the following season.— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) July 23, 2019
How will Patrick Mahomes follow up his 50 TD campaign? pic.twitter.com/ccauCBgXe7
Lamar Jackson started in seven games last year and rushed for 695 yards. He does not rush for more than 500 yards this season
Justification: The Baltimore Ravens have their new franchise QB with Joe Flacco no longer with the team. This means he can not get hurt. This means he will have to limit how often he runs. He was averaging 17 attempts per game in those seven games and I will be surprised if we see him averaging close to 10 this year. Add to this defenses spent the offseason watching his game plan and will now be looking for him to rush. IF he does opt to rush as much as he did last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets banged up in the process. Conversely, I think he sees his passing stats improve this year.
DeShaun Watson is in the top seven in passing yards for the first time in his career
Justification: Last year he was 11th, he’s on the high end of completion percentage (68.3% good enough for 7th best in the league) but he was held back by his total attempts (505) where he was 15th in the league. I think we see him passing more this year, I’m not sold on their running game as a whole and I think he has quite a few quality receivers that he is throwing to giving him a number of options. The strength of the offensive line still has me concerned but it shouldn’t be anything new as he battled through this last year as well.
The best story no one is talking about this offseason: Deshaun Watson.— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) July 22, 2019
(I blame Pat Mahomes)
Watson has been outstanding through 23 career games. 52 TD, 17 INT. 8.3 YPA. 66% C%. 820 rushing yards. Dude hasn't even turned 24 yet.
Imagine if that Texans OL plays better...
Jimmy Garoppolo is a top eight fantasy QB this year
Justification: He is outside the top 20 on most lists but I could not be more bullish on his potential. He has an excellent left tackle in Joe Staley, he has the knowledge base learning from Tom Brady for a few years, he has a handful of talented wide receivers including some new names (both top 3 round draft picks): Deebo Samuel out of South Carolina and Jalen Hurd out of Baylor. Add to that Dante Pettis from last years draft and some experienced players like Jordan Matthews and Marquise Goodwin.
Highest @PFF Grade on passes outside pocket (reg. season+playoffs, since 2016):— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) July 22, 2019
1. Patrick Mahomes 94.2
2. Jimmy Garoppolo 91.8
3. Aaron Rodgers 81.4
4. Deshaun Watson 80.7
5. Baker Mayfield 78.3
6. Matt Ryan 78.2
7. Ben Roethlisberger 76.4
8. Tom Brady 74.9
9. Andrew Luck 74.8
Josh Allen is a top 10 fantasy QB this year
Justification. I like a lot of what he did last year and with his size he should be among the more durable QBs in the NFL. His RB group isn’t terrible but it’s older and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s asked to shoulder more as I don’t see LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore and TJ Yeldon carrying a ton of the load each week. I think the Bills line will dictate his success between fresh faces (Rookie Cody Ford, Kansas City Chiefs Mitch Morse and Tennessee Titans Quinton Spain) will they be good or will they struggle together as a unit? At receiver they have a good mix of vets (Cole Beasley, John Brown) up and coming players (Zay Jones and rookie Nick Easley) and personally I think Isaiah McKenzie could be in for a good year. Finally he was 2nd in the league in rushing with 631 yards and that was across 12 games including 8 rushing TDs (most in NFL). Given his size, he should be given more leniency to rush than other franchise QBs.
Which bold prediction will come true?
This poll is closed
No QB throws for more than 40 TDs
Lamar Jackson rushes for less than 500 yards
DeShaun Watson is top 7 in passing yards
Jimmy G is a top 8 fantasy QB
Josh Allen is a top 10 fantasy QB