We’re still a long way from actual football being played but now feels as good a time as ever to take a look at how the fantasy football community is feeling about the 2019 NFL season.
Personally, I like starting my draft research around now, in the midst of the NFL doldrums. It gives you a sense of where players are falling in drafts before half of them see their value over-inflate because of training camps while the other half craters because they seemed to have “lost a step”. Middle of June is far enough into the offseason that free agency and the draft have passed us, but not too close to training camps that rumors and buzz have affected ADPs.
So I decided to sit down and go eight rounds, round-by-round and see whose ADP I like and whose I am not a fan of (using Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADPs).
Love David Johnson at 1.05: I make no attempt to hide my DJ love and if I can get him in the middle of the first round, I’m a happy, happy boy. Between being a full year removed from his injury and playing in an offense that’s likely going to be three to four-wide all the time, Johnson has a chance to finish as the best player in fantasy.
Hate James Conner at 1.10: For whatever reason, I just don’t trust Conner to recreate the season he had last year. Maybe it’s because he averaged only 53.4 rushing yards and 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game in the second half of last season after averaging 88.3 yards and 1.1 touchdowns through the first half. I’d rather take Joe Mixon or Julio Jones who are going right after him.
Love Odell Beckham Jr at 2.04: I think there’s a real chance Odell is the best receiver in fantasy football this year so getting him at the start of the second round is a steal in my book.
Hate Damien Williams at 2.08: I don’t hate this so much as I’m surprised by this. I understand everyone has a crush on the Chiefs and their perfect unstoppable offense but are we sure Williams is good? Are we sure he’s going to be the unquestioned starting back in KC? Is he really better than Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette and Marlon Mack?
Love Keenan Allen at 3.08: Allen is currently ranked WR12. Yes. Please and thank you. You take Allen here and you don’t ask any questions. You just nod your head and pretend like you didn’t just make the steal of your fantasy draft and that you’re not surrounded by a bunch of idiots.
Hate Patrick Mahomes at 3.01: Even if you’re someone who likes to draft QBs early, you have to agree that this seems a bit rich for a guy who likely won’t put up near the same numbers he had last year. I’m not saying Mahomes is going to suck this season, but I don’t think he’s throwing for 50 plus touchdowns again.
Love Mark Ingram at 4.03: I’ve long been a Mark Ingram believer and in Baltimore’s run-first-and-then-run-some-more-please offense, I think we could be in for a big year from the veteran.
Hate Sony Michel at 4.01: It’s hard for me to say anything negative about my boy Sony, but it’s a) the Patriots’ backfield which is ripe with uncertainty and b) I’m a little worried about Damien Harris coming in and taking all the goal line touches.
Love Cooper Kupp/Mike Williams at 5.04/5.05: I couldn’t decide who I loved more so I figured I’d mention both of them. Kupp has proven to be Goff’s favorite passing target and the engine that moves the Rams’ offense. Yes he’s coming back from a torn ACL but we’ve seen that no longer be a real hindrance anymore. And Mike Williams about to catch all the touchdowns.
Hate Tyreek Hill just in general: Don’t draft him.
Love Tyler Lockett at 6.01: Lockett is coming off a season where he caught 57 balls for 965 yards, 10 touchdowns and finished WR11 in fantasy. Yes Russell Wilson has a new weapon in DK Metcalf but I have a hard time believing that Lockett is going to be completely replaced in that offense, especially with Doug Baldwin retiring.
Hate Jordan Howard at 6.10: I need Howard to prove to me again that he can be a reliable fantasy back and that he can carve out a role for himself in Philly. There are just other backs who I like more—looking at you Royce Freeman—who are going after him.
Love Carson Wentz at 7.12: Injuries be damned! Go watch 2017 Wentz highlights and tell me you’re not excited to see him take the next step.
Hate Drew Brees at 7.01: Hey you know what’s totally ok? Getting older. Brees was a monster to start the season but he didn’t finish it as one. Hopefully he finds some of his old magic again but I’m taking either the aforementioned Wentz or Russell Wilson ahead of Brees this year.
Love Allen Robinson at 8.02: Robinson’s first year with the Bears wasn’t exactly everything it was cracked up to be but I just can’t stop thinking about Robinson’s last game of last season and how dominate he looked. In the Bears’ one postseason game against the Eagles, Robinson caught 10 balls on 13 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown. In the eighth round, I’m willing to take a chance on seeing that version of Allen Robinson more in 2019.
Hate Bears defense at 8.06: Please don’t draft a defense this early.
Who’s current ADP do you love or hate?