Again with no preamble. Yesterday my $12 entry landed 70th of 1,470 with a score of 135.95 points on DraftKings. Would have landed on more than $50 had Walker Buehler not been victimized by Pete Alonso...twice! So it goes.
Today it’s the same format. These were my knee-jerk reactions when I built my first lineup, and what follows are some of the reasons I may choose to keep or discard these players.
SP1: Carlos Carrasco @ Chicago White Sox
The Sox have hit 54 homers against righty pitching, tied for 13th in the MLB. That’s the good news. The bad news is they strike out 26.8% of the time, nearly tied with the Padres (26.9%) for the worst mark in the league in this split. That, and Eloy Jimenez’s recent return means his 29.2% strikeout rate makes this lineup even more vulnerable with regard to whiffs.
SP2: Martin Perez @ Tampa Bay Rays
Last night I had Tyler Skaggs all set to go, but he was scratched. Maybe that’s a good thing, as his road numbers aren’t great. Anyway, I like lefties against Tampa. The Rays have a 30.2% strikeout rate against lefties, worst in the MLB. Their .147 ISO ranks 22nd, and they are down some power with Yandy Diaz on the shelf. Even the good hitters in this lineup strike out a ton against southpaws, and even Tommy Pham is only sporting a .115 ISO against lefties. On paper it’s a good matchup, and it’s obviously a good park. And the Twins are a good offense. I’ll take it.
Another SP2: Joe Musgrove vs. Milwaukee
I don’t love the spot, but I love Musgrove’s 6K price tag and if you subscribe to the hot-and-cold theory, then he’s due for a good one. The weather in this one is dicey, so be sure you check your favorite DFS meteorologist. This year I’ve been pretty aggressive with ignoring the weather, and it’s been profitable. Just sayin’.
Catcher: Elias Diaz vs. Chase Anderson
Diaz fits my cheap catcher mold against Anderson, who allows a whopping 52.6% hard contact rate to right-handed bats. His 7.7% HR/FB ratio is likely due to regress. Anyway, we saw some pop from Diaz in spot duty a year ago (10 homers) and his average is up to .265 after batting .299 so far in the month of May. At some point we should see some homers fall.
The Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jason Vargas
NO JUSTIN TURNER is a tragedy. Didn’t know he was injured...get well soon, Turner! I like Bellinger, Muncy, and Kike Hernandez the best. I’ll tolerate Chris Taylor in the leadoff spot, but he’s more of a floor play to me. I don’t really love David Freese, either. Neither Taylor nor Freese have hit the ball hard this year. And Muncy honestly hasn’t either—but he hits a lot of fly balls in this split and I dig that against Vargas. Not really digging anyone else in this lineup, honestly.
Third Base: Jose Ramirez @ Manny Banuelos
This honestly wasn’t my plan. My plan was Justin Turner. I have a couple of squads with Ramirez, and one with Marwin Gonzalez against Charlie Morton.
Shortstop: Kevin Newman vs. Chase Anderson
It’s sweet when the cheap guy gets to bat leadoff. If I’m not paying down, I’m paying for Lindor.
Outfield: Mallex Smith vs. Garcia/Pena
The Angels are using the opener strategy, with Felix Pena slated to be the primary pitcher in relief. Mallex Smith is cheap ($3,800) and hot—his last three game scores are 24.0, 15.0, and 34.0. Sign me up.
In summation, no Justin Turner is really wrecking the nice and tidy lineups I’d already created. I’m still working on the particulars.