The starting pitcher position has been very volatile this season as the “aces” have really struggled to start the season, but the upside is the quality arms that have emerged from the later rounds of the draft. I have gotten a lot of questions recently regarding how I value these pitchers going forward, so I decided to update my preseason starting pitcher rankings. Enjoy!
Who’s Up
Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays
I have been lucky enough to watch half of Morton’s starts this season, and every time I walk away thinking that he might be the most underrated player currently playing in the majors. His command is exceptional, and his arsenal is somehow even better. He has also started to throw a slider this season that has an astonishing contact rate of 38.5% so far this season. With the addition of his slider, he now has six different pitches he can select from, which could be the reason for his career-best 71.2% contact rate this season. I genuinely believe that Morton could finish as a top ten pitcher this season, and could be the ace of your staff.
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
Glasnow has always been looked at as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but his lack of control has always kept him from reaching his potential. This season, however, he has not only improved his control, but it looks like he could actually have above-average control. If this trend continues, Glasnow could be a potential Cy Young candidate.
Caleb Smith, Miami Marlins
A lot of people were afraid to draft Smith coming into the season due to extreme fly ball rates and inconsistency. So far this season, he has looked like a polished ace. His high fly ball rate helps him keep a low BABIP as his home park is one of the best pitcher parks in the league, and his improved command has led to a career-best 6.4% walk rate. He has always shown the ability to miss bats, and that trend has continued on into 2019. If his peripherals stay at their current levels, then he should finish as a top 20 starting pitcher.
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
I sadly wasn’t on the Boyd train to start the season, and this decision has led to me missing out on one of the best bat-missers in the league. His 66.8% contact rate is third among all qualified pitchers, and trails only Luis Castillo and Blake Snell. His newfound success, like many other pitchers, is mainly due almost entirely to less sinker-ball usage. With Michael Fulmer out for the season, Boyd has stepped up to become the ace of the rotation.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
After struggling mightily in 2018, Stroman has come back looking like the “ace” many thought he could be. He has always had a nasty slider but has mainly been a sinker-ball pitcher up until this point. This season, however, he has upped his slider usage by 15.46%, and his sinker-ball usage is down 9.53%. This has caused his ground ball rate to drop but is a necessary casualty for him to become a top 30 pitcher again.
Martin Perez, Minnesota Twins
Perez is the only guy on this list you can still buy low on, but I would go ahead and do it now as six inning, one run game Friday has likely already caught some people’s attention. With his average fastball velocity being up 2.05 mph from last season and a newfound cutter, he is set for a breakout in 2019. We have already seen his contact rate drop 7.3% from what it was the season prior, and his peripherals suggest that his walk rate will likely fall below the league average. His peripherals remind me a lot of Pablo Lopez this season and is someone I am buying low on in all my leagues this weekend.
Who’s Down
Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
Darvish has been unable to locate his pitches this season, and it seems like he has been throwing the ball everywhere except the strike zone. This lack of control has caused him to post the worst walk rate among pitchers with his amount of innings. He is still missing bats at a near-elite rate, but if his control doesn’t come back, then he may have trouble becoming a top 40 starting pitcher.
Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals
Mikolas has always been a pitch-to-contact pitcher, but this season he has looked way too hittable. He owns the worst contact rate of any qualified starting pitcher so far this season, and his fly ball rate is up 8.3% from what it was last season. With his early-season struggles and lack of upside, I would seriously consider dropping the 30-year-old right-hander for an upside arm off waivers.
Michael Pineda, Minnesota Twins
I was really big on Pineda coming into the season after his encouraging Spring. So far this season, however, he has been nothing short of a disappointment. His average fastball velocity is down 1.49 mph from what it was in 2017, and his contact rate is above the league average for the first time in his career. I am officially cutting ties with him in most leagues this weekend but will keep a close eye on his velocity to see if it improves throughout the season.
Updated SP Rankings
# | First | Last | Team | IP | GB/FB | Hard% | K% | BB% | CNT% | ERA | xFIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | First | Last | Team | IP | GB/FB | Hard% | K% | BB% | CNT% | ERA | xFIP |
1 | Max | Scherzer | WAS | 39.1 | 1.45 | 40.8% | 34.0% | 3.1% | 67.2% | 4.12 | 2.40 |
2 | Jacob | deGrom | NYM | 26.0 | 0.67 | 45.8% | 37.7% | 8.8% | 70.4% | 4.85 | 2.94 |
3 | Justin | Verlander | HOU | 38.0 | 0.86 | 33.3% | 30.5% | 6.0% | 74.4% | 2.61 | 3.49 |
4 | Trevor | Bauer | CLE | 40.2 | 1.06 | 39.8% | 28.3% | 12.0% | 74.4% | 1.99 | 3.94 |
5 | Gerrit | Cole | HOU | 36.1 | 1.18 | 42.2% | 36.2% | 8.1% | 67.3% | 4.71 | 2.59 |
6 | Blake | Snell | TBR | 28.1 | 1.18 | 23.7% | 37.5% | 5.8% | 59.1% | 2.54 | 2.47 |
7 | Noah | Syndergaard | NYM | 29.0 | 1.48 | 29.6% | 27.6% | 5.7% | 74.3% | 5.90 | 3.36 |
8 | Chris | Sale | BOS | 23.0 | 1.15 | 41.1% | 22.6% | 6.6% | 76.2% | 7.43 | 4.43 |
9 | Aaron | Nola | PHI | 31.2 | 1.54 | 45.7% | 22.7% | 9.2% | 79.9% | 5.68 | 4.19 |
10 | Stephen | Strasburg | WAS | 30.2 | 1.83 | 33.8% | 31.2% | 7.2% | 69.1% | 4.11 | 2.87 |
11 | Clayton | Kershaw | LAD | 13.0 | 2.11 | 22.6% | 27.1% | 8.3% | 75.0% | 2.77 | 3.35 |
12 | Luis | Castillo | CIN | 36.2 | 1.95 | 31.0% | 29.9% | 9.7% | 66.4% | 1.23 | 3.30 |
13 | Charlie | Morton | TBR | 26.2 | 1.43 | 32.8% | 30.9% | 10.9% | 71.2% | 3.38 | 3.74 |
14 | German | Marquez | COL | 39.0 | 1.83 | 37.0% | 23.6% | 6.4% | 72.3% | 2.54 | 3.55 |
15 | Corey | Kluber | CLE | 31.0 | 0.90 | 37.9% | 23.8% | 10.2% | 73.4% | 5.81 | 4.89 |
16 | Jameson | Taillon | PIT | 31.0 | 1.92 | 41.8% | 19.1% | 4.6% | 75.3% | 4.06 | 3.80 |
17 | Carlos | Carrasco | CLE | 21.0 | 0.62 | 49.1% | 35.1% | 5.3% | 71.5% | 6.00 | 3.18 |
18 | Patrick | Corbin | WAS | 32.2 | 0.94 | 44.4% | 30.7% | 4.7% | 71.6% | 2.48 | 3.46 |
19 | Chris | Paddack | SDP | 27.0 | 0.89 | 25.0% | 30.3% | 8.1% | 77.6% | 1.67 | 3.79 |
20 | Jose | Berrios | MIN | 33.1 | 0.89 | 35.6% | 25.4% | 6.2% | 74.4% | 2.97 | 4.14 |
21 | James | Paxton | NYY | 34.2 | 0.79 | 45.6% | 36.2% | 7.1% | 71.2% | 3.38 | 2.93 |
22 | Caleb | Smith | MIA | 29.0 | 0.74 | 21.5% | 33.9% | 6.4% | 69.8% | 2.17 | 3.05 |
23 | Tyler | Glasnow | TBR | 29.1 | 1.58 | 28.9% | 26.1% | 5.4% | 75.3% | 1.53 | 3.30 |
24 | Walker | Buehler | LAD | 24.0 | 0.96 | 36.6% | 18.4% | 8.2% | 78.2% | 5.25 | 4.95 |
25 | Jack | Flaherty | STL | 24.0 | 1.00 | 41.8% | 30.5% | 4.8% | 69.9% | 5.25 | 3.09 |
26 | Matthew | Boyd | DET | 31.1 | 0.90 | 28.9% | 31.0% | 7.1% | 66.8% | 3.16 | 3.40 |
27 | Joe | Musgrove | PIT | 28.1 | 1.27 | 36.5% | 24.3% | 5.6% | 73.3% | 1.59 | 3.76 |
28 | David | Price | BOS | 24.0 | 0.77 | 37.3% | 31.9% | 5.3% | 73.9% | 3.75 | 3.30 |
29 | Marcus | Stroman | TOR | 37.2 | 1.93 | 35.6% | 23.8% | 9.3% | 73.8% | 1.43 | 3.73 |
30 | Zack | Greinke | ARI | 36.1 | 1.15 | 34.4% | 27.5% | 4.9% | 80.3% | 3.72 | 3.27 |
31 | Shane | Bieber | CLE | 23.1 | 0.79 | 46.9% | 25.5% | 7.1% | 70.2% | 3.47 | 4.41 |
32 | Zack | Wheeler | NYM | 29.2 | 1.71 | 40.0% | 26.0% | 11.0% | 78.0% | 4.85 | 3.84 |
33 | Mike | Soroka | ATL | 10.2 | 8.00 | 24.1% | 26.5% | 10.2% | 75.0% | 1.69 | 3.00 |
34 | Sonny | Gray | CIN | 24.2 | 2.06 | 37.7% | 31.3% | 6.1% | 72.1% | 3.65 | 2.68 |
35 | Collin | McHugh | HOU | 32.0 | 0.90 | 23.5% | 28.2% | 7.6% | 72.1% | 4.78 | 3.76 |
36 | Pablo | Lopez | MIA | 26.1 | 1.61 | 34.7% | 25.9% | 4.5% | 74.8% | 4.44 | 3.48 |
37 | Eduardo | Rodriguez | BOS | 26.0 | 1.18 | 25.6% | 23.9% | 8.6% | 67.8% | 5.88 | 4.27 |
38 | Ross | Stripling | LAD | 34.0 | 1.85 | 37.6% | 23.5% | 7.4% | 76.5% | 2.65 | 3.65 |
39 | Kevin | Gausman | ATL | 25.0 | 0.92 | 32.3% | 28.6% | 8.2% | 72.7% | 3.96 | 3.66 |
40 | Domingo | German | NYY | 25.2 | 0.96 | 36.5% | 28.3% | 8.1% | 70.1% | 1.75 | 3.72 |
41 | Kenta | Maeda | LAD | 27.2 | 1.10 | 21.0% | 21.0% | 10.9% | 70.5% | 5.20 | 4.77 |
42 | Mike | Clevinger | CLE | 12.0 | 1.40 | 43.8% | 52.4% | 9.5% | 52.5% | 0.00 | 1.23 |
43 | Masahiro | Tanaka | NYY | 35.0 | 1.52 | 40.6% | 21.1% | 7.8% | 79.2% | 3.60 | 4.13 |
44 | Hyun-Jin | Ryu | LAD | 27.1 | 1.79 | 34.7% | 30.8% | 1.9% | 72.5% | 2.96 | 2.24 |
45 | Madison | Bumgarner | SFG | 37.2 | 1.08 | 46.8% | 22.9% | 3.3% | 78.6% | 4.30 | 3.53 |
46 | Mike | Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
47 | Chris | Archer | PIT | 27.0 | 0.67 | 33.8% | 25.7% | 10.6% | 73.8% | 4.33 | 4.73 |
48 | Robbie | Ray | ARI | 32.1 | 0.97 | 40.0% | 27.2% | 12.5% | 71.1% | 4.18 | 4.31 |
49 | Vince | Velasquez | PHI | 22.2 | 0.92 | 28.3% | 24.4% | 7.8% | 78.5% | 1.99 | 4.24 |
50 | Max | Fried | ATL | 31.1 | 2.09 | 34.4% | 20.5% | 5.5% | 79.1% | 2.30 | 3.61 |
51 | Yu | Darvish | CHC | 22.2 | 1.42 | 38.3% | 23.8% | 17.1% | 71.8% | 5.96 | 5.14 |
52 | Joey | Lucchesi | SPD | 27.0 | 2.11 | 31.2% | 25.2% | 7.8% | 73.2% | 4.33 | 3.23 |
53 | Martin | Perez | MIN | 26.1 | 1.30 | 26.8% | 19.5% | 10.2% | 77.0% | 4.44 | 4.79 |
54 | Carlos | Rodon | CHW | 31.0 | 1.09 | 39.3% | 28.6% | 10.7% | 72.8% | 4.94 | 4.04 |
55 | Jakob | Junis | KCR | 32.1 | 1.92 | 40.4% | 22.4% | 7.0% | 76.9% | 5.57 | 3.77 |
56 | Sandy | Alcantara | MIA | 28.0 | 1.48 | 27.8% | 17.1% | 9.8% | 75.1% | 4.50 | 3.36 |
57 | Jose | Quintana | CHC | 28.0 | 1.89 | 47.9% | 30.3% | 7.6% | 72.1% | 3.21 | 2.79 |
58 | Trevor | Richards | MIA | 29.0 | 0.68 | 36.4% | 22.8% | 13.0% | 69.9% | 3.72 | 5.53 |
59 | Luke | Weaver | ARI | 27.0 | 1.73 | 41.3% | 27.4% | 5.3% | 78.0% | 3.33 | 3.14 |
60 | Brandon | Woodruff | MIL | 26.1 | 1.00 | 40.0% | 27.1% | 7.6% | 77.1% | 5.81 | 3.81 |
61 | Frankie | Montas | OAK | 29.0 | 2.40 | 33.7% | 21.9% | 6.7% | 78.5% | 3.10 | 3.66 |
62 | Jimmy | Nelson | MIL | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
63 | Zach | Eflin | PHI | 26.0 | 1.00 | 40.5% | 20.5% | 4.5% | 79.0% | 4.15 | 4.33 |
64 | Alex | Reyes | STL | 3.0 | 0.60 | 50.0% | 5.9% | 35.3% | 84.0% | 15.00 | 11.61 |
65 | Luis | Severino | NYY | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
66 | Yusei | Kikuchi | SEA | 33.2 | 1.46 | 33.3% | 17.7% | 5.7% | 82.7% | 4.54 | 4.31 |
67 | Julio | Urias | LAD | 21.2 | 0.69 | 29.6% | 28.9% | 8.9% | 67.9% | 3.32 | 4.38 |
68 | Jesus | Luzardo | OAK | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
69 | Rich | Hill | LAD | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
70 | Brad | Peacock | HOU | 21.0 | 1.17 | 39.3% | 20.2% | 7.1% | 79.7% | 4.29 | 4.52 |
71 | Jon | Gray | COL | 32.1 | 2.09 | 48.8% | 23.6% | 10.2% | 74.4% | 2.78 | 3.94 |
72 | Jon | Lester | CHC | 19.0 | 1.40 | 45.3% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 78.7% | 2.37 | 3.56 |
73 | Anthony | DeSclafani | CIN | 25.1 | 0.83 | 30.9% | 25.7% | 10.1% | 76.6% | 4.26 | 4.69 |
74 | Yonny | Chirinos | TBR | 25.1 | 0.82 | 35.8% | 23.4% | 5.3% | 78.8% | 3.55 | 4.07 |
75 | Cole | Hamels | CHC | 31.1 | 2.09 | 47.1% | 24.0% | 7.2% | 77.5% | 3.16 | 3.45 |
76 | Kyle | Freeland | COL | 27.2 | 1.61 | 33.8% | 25.2% | 8.4% | 77.1% | 4.23 | 3.82 |
77 | Griffin | Canning | LAA | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
78 | Tyler | Skaggs | LAA | 20.0 | 0.91 | 31.6% | 23.5% | 6.2% | 81.5% | 3.15 | 4.15 |
79 | Jake | Arrieta | PHI | 34.0 | 1.50 | 37.5% | 18.4% | 9.6% | 84.7% | 2.65 | 4.75 |
80 | Lucas | Giolito | CHW | 18.2 | 1.54 | 39.1% | 28.8% | 12.5% | 71.9% | 5.30 | 3.74 |
81 | Marco | Gonzales | SEA | 45.0 | 1.13 | 33.1% | 18.4% | 4.9% | 84.4% | 2.80 | 4.40 |
82 | Steven | Matz | NYM | 22.1 | 1.09 | 43.5% | 26.0% | 8.3% | 79.2% | 4.03 | 4.04 |
83 | Dylan | Cease | CHW | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
84 | Trent | Thornton | TOR | 23.1 | 0.88 | 47.8% | 26.0% | 7.0% | 76.7% | 5.79 | 3.74 |
85 | Dereck | Rodriguez | SFG | 28.0 | 1.25 | 33.7% | 19.8% | 4.5% | 80.6% | 3.54 | 4.08 |
86 | Jerad | Eickhoff | PHI | 17.0 | 1.06 | 30.0% | 30.8% | 7.7% | 69.0% | 2.12 | 3.43 |
87 | Trevor | Williams | PIT | 31.1 | 1.29 | 32.6% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 81.1% | 2.59 | 4.51 |
88 | Kyle | Gibson | MIN | 20.2 | 1.84 | 51.5% | 19.6% | 8.7% | 71.6% | 6.10 | 4.28 |
89 | Miles | Mikolas | STL | 34.0 | 1.26 | 30.4% | 13.1% | 5.5% | 85.8% | 5.29 | 5.31 |
90 | Jonathan | Loaisiga | NYY | 10.0 | 0.75 | 38.5% | 23.8% | 14.3% | 63.9% | 2.70 | 5.19 |
91 | Spencer | Turnbull | DET | 26.0 | 1.38 | 31.9% | 23.2% | 9.8% | 77.3% | 2.77 | 4.48 |
92 | Merrill | Kelly | ARI | 29.2 | 1.39 | 36.0% | 21.1% | 9.4% | 80.5% | 3.94 | 4.30 |
93 | Wade | Miley | HOU | 27.2 | 1.43 | 37.1% | 15.9% | 4.4% | 79.5% | 3.58 | 4.52 |
94 | Forrest | Whitley | HOU | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
95 | Michael | Pineda | MIN | 24.0 | 0.84 | 39.2% | 20.2% | 5.1% | 79.1% | 5.63 | 4.53 |
96 | Chase | Anderson | MIL | 19.2 | 0.70 | 30.8% | 26.5% | 10.8% | 77.4% | 3.20 | 4.47 |
97 | Andrew | Heaney | LAA | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
98 | Brent | Honeywell | TBR | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
99 | Nick | Margevicius | SDP | 25.0 | 1.20 | 33.3% | 22.8% | 6.9% | 79.0% | 3.60 | 4.25 |
100 | Mike | Minor | TEX | 33.2 | 0.93 | 38.0% | 20.0% | 8.5% | 74.6% | 3.21 | 4.95 |
101 | Kyle | Hendricks | CHC | 25.1 | 1.34 | 36.0% | 20.2% | 6.7% | 82.9% | 5.33 | 4.11 |
102 | Jeff | Samardzija | SFG | 27.0 | 0.68 | 38.2% | 22.0% | 8.3% | 78.9% | 3.00 | 4.73 |
103 | Rick | Porcello | BOS | 23.0 | 1.26 | 42.5% | 17.1% | 12.8% | 79.4% | 7.43 | 5.69 |
104 | Corbin | Burnes | MIL | 17.2 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 26.7% | 8.9% | 71.0% | 10.70 | 3.80 |
105 | Derek | Holland | SFG | 27.0 | 0.69 | 49.2% | 30.6% | 11.7% | 70.4% | 4.33 | 4.19 |
106 | Zac | Gallen | MIA | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
107 | Alex | Wood | CIN | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
108 | J.A. | Happ | NYY | 25.2 | 0.94 | 38.8% | 20.0% | 7.3% | 78.1% | 5.96 | 4.85 |
109 | Erik | Swanson | SEA | 13.2 | 0.63 | 33.3% | 21.4% | 3.6% | 76.2% | 4.61 | 4.44 |
110 | Carlos | Martinez | STL | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
111 | Jordan | Lyles | PIT | 22.0 | 0.76 | 37.9% | 25.0% | 6.0% | 81.7% | 2.05 | 4.39 |
112 | Jon | Duplantier | ARI | 4.0 | 2.00 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 13.3% | 85.2% | 0.00 | 4.54 |
113 | Matt | Strahm | SDP | 26.2 | 0.80 | 33.8% | 19.4% | 4.6% | 80.5% | 3.04 | 4.82 |
114 | Dylan | Bundy | BAL | 23.1 | 0.54 | 30.9% | 24.5% | 9.4% | 72.6% | 6.56 | 5.28 |
115 | Aaron | Sanchez | TOR | 26.0 | 1.70 | 45.6% | 20.9% | 14.6% | 80.5% | 2.77 | 5.00 |
116 | Justus | Sheffield | SEA | 3.0 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 21.4% | 28.6% | 74.1% | 6.00 | 7.01 |
117 | Julio | Teheran | ATL | 31.2 | 0.94 | 42.0% | 25.4% | 12.0% | 70.9% | 5.40 | 4.58 |
118 | Mitch | Keller | PIT | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
119 | Jorge | Lopez | KCR | 30.0 | 1.21 | 33.7% | 22.7% | 7.0% | 76.6% | 4.50 | 4.27 |
120 | John | Means | BAL | 20.2 | 1.00 | 32.7% | 26.7% | 7.0% | 68.2% | 1.74 | 4.16 |
121 | Tyler | Mahle | CIN | 23.0 | 1.83 | 53.8% | 25.8% | 4.3% | 78.5% | 3.52 | 3.03 |
122 | Jhoulys | Chacin | MIL | 28.1 | 0.92 | 41.5% | 20.5% | 12.3% | 80.6% | 6.35 | 5.35 |
123 | Dakota | Hudson | STL | 18.1 | 2.47 | 49.2% | 19.4% | 12.9% | 73.0% | 5.89 | 4.67 |
124 | Eric | Lauer | SDP | 27.0 | 1.06 | 37.6% | 20.0% | 6.1% | 82.7% | 4.67 | 4.44 |
125 | Homer | Bailey | KCR | 24.0 | 1.09 | 49.2% | 26.7% | 10.9% | 77.4% | 5.63 | 3.98 |