Top 200 pitching prospects

Earlier this week, we gave you:

This surprised me. Of the 200 prospects on my list, 55 of them either have had Tommy John surgery or have significant warning signs of requiring it. In fact, 44 have already had the procedure. The top 100 are littered with Braves and Padres. But you’ll note, of the ten Braves on the top 200, none have had Tommy John.

Of the top eight prospects, seven have had Tommy John. They all throw pretty hard just like the number one prospect - Forrest Whitley. Does this concern you for Whitley’s short-term outlook?

Also of note, 18 of the top 200 prospects touch triple digits. 6 already have had Tommy John with concern over three more. So, in this small sample size, there is a correlation between bringing triple digit heat and having Tommy John.

To qualify for this list, you must be under 50 innings pitched in the major leagues. I’ve ignored all other qualifications for the purpose of simplicity.

You’ll note many of the usual suspects, but also some lesser known names such as Ronny Henriquez and Lazaro Estrada on the list who were part of an elite club last season. Noteworthy, Kevin Ginkel was part of the club as a reliever.

Debate the order of this list. Some may value upside, some my value safety. You may use basic statistics, advanced statistics, scouting reports, or the eye-test. These lists are made to debate. However, my goal was not to craft the perfect list, but to compile a comprehensive list which so happens to be my personal preference. Two pieces of information I am always looking for are previous Tommy John surgeries and maximum fastball velocity. I dive into other metrics of course, but those two facts are always relevant and not always available in a tabular form. Without further ado: