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Earlier this week, we gave you:
This surprised me. Of the 200 prospects on my list, 55 of them either have had Tommy John surgery or have significant warning signs of requiring it. In fact, 44 have already had the procedure. The top 100 are littered with Braves and Padres. But you’ll note, of the ten Braves on the top 200, none have had Tommy John.
Of the top eight prospects, seven have had Tommy John. They all throw pretty hard just like the number one prospect - Forrest Whitley. Does this concern you for Whitley’s short-term outlook?
Also of note, 18 of the top 200 prospects touch triple digits. 6 already have had Tommy John with concern over three more. So, in this small sample size, there is a correlation between bringing triple digit heat and having Tommy John.
To qualify for this list, you must be under 50 innings pitched in the major leagues. I’ve ignored all other qualifications for the purpose of simplicity.
You’ll note many of the usual suspects, but also some lesser known names such as Ronny Henriquez and Lazaro Estrada on the list who were part of an elite club last season. Noteworthy, Kevin Ginkel was part of the club as a reliever.
Acrosss all levels of minors in 2018, 4 SP with min 50 IP had
— Zack (@zackroto) February 16, 2019
1. K/9 > 11.0
2. K/BB > 7.0
3. ERA < 2.50
4. WHIP < 1.00
1. chris paddack
2. Brendan McKay
3. Ronny Henriquez #23 Tex prospect @ProspectsLive
4. Lazaro Estrada.
DSL sure but I see lots of DSL players on top 30s.
Debate the order of this list. Some may value upside, some my value safety. You may use basic statistics, advanced statistics, scouting reports, or the eye-test. These lists are made to debate. However, my goal was not to craft the perfect list, but to compile a comprehensive list which so happens to be my personal preference. Two pieces of information I am always looking for are previous Tommy John surgeries and maximum fastball velocity. I dive into other metrics of course, but those two facts are always relevant and not always available in a tabular form. Without further ado:
Top 200 Pitching Prospects
Rank | Player | Team | Opening Day Age | Highest Level | Tommy John | Max Velo |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Player | Team | Opening Day Age | Highest Level | Tommy John | Max Velo |
1 | Forrest Whitley | HOU | 21 | Double-A | 100mph | |
2 | Michael Kopech | CHW | 22 | MLB | 2018 | 100mph |
3 | Alex Reyes | STL | 24 | MLB | 2017 | 100mph |
4 | Jesus Luzardo | OAK | 21 | Triple-A | 2016 | 98mph |
5 | Dylan Cease | CHW | 23 | Double-A | 2014 | 100mph |
6 | Brent Honeywell | TBR | 23 | Triple-A | 2018 | 96mph |
7 | Chris Paddack | SDP | 23 | Double-A | 2016 | 96mph |
8 | A.J. Puk | OAK | 23 | Double-A | 2018 | 97mph |
9 | Mackenzie Gore | SDP | 20 | Single-A | 96mph | |
10 | Luis Patino | SDP | 19 | Single-A | 98mph | |
11 | Kyle Wright | ATL | 22 | MLB | 96mph | |
12 | Matt Manning | DET | 21 | Double-A | 96mph | |
13 | Michael Soroka | ATL | 21 | MLB | 94mph | |
14 | Logan Allen | SDP | 21 | Triple-A | 94mph | |
15 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | 21 | Double-A | 95mph | |
16 | Brusdar Graterol | MIN | 20 | High-A | 2015 | 98mph |
17 | Hunter Greene | CIN | 19 | Single-A | Warning signs | 102mph |
18 | Casey Mize | DET | 21 | High-A | Warning signs | 97mph |
19 | Ian Anderson | ATL | 20 | Double-A | 96mph | |
20 | Brendan McKay | TBR | 23 | High-A | 95mph | |
21 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | 24 | MLB | 96mph | |
22 | Jon Duplantier | ARI | 24 | Double-A | Warning signs | 95mph |
23 | Taylor Widener | ARI | 24 | Triple-A | 94mph | |
24 | Daniel Lynch | KCR | 22 | Single-A | 97mph | |
25 | Matthew Liberatore | TBR | 19 | Rookie | 95mph | |
26 | Adonis Medina | PHI | 22 | High-A | 96mph | |
27 | Bryse Wilson | ATL | 21 | MLB | 98mph | |
28 | Josh James | HOU | 25 | MLB | 97mph | |
29 | Mitch Keller | PIT | 22 | Triple-A | 99mph | |
30 | Nate Pearson | TOR | 22 | High-A | 104mph | |
31 | Hans Crouse | TEX | 20 | Single-A | 99mph | |
32 | Ethan Hankins | CLE | 18 | Rookie | 98mph | |
33 | Bryan Abreu | HOU | 21 | Single-A | 96mph | |
34 | Eric Pardinho | TOR | 18 | Rookie | 96mph | |
35 | Adrian Morejon | SDP | 20 | High-A | 96mph | |
36 | Touki Toussaint | ATL | 22 | MLB | 98mph | |
37 | Dustin May | LAD | 21 | Double-A | 97mph | |
38 | Luiz Gohara | ATL | 22 | MLB | 98mph | |
39 | Sixto Sanchez | MIA | 20 | High-A | Warning signs | 100mph |
40 | Brady Singer | KCR | 22 | N/A | 96mph | |
41 | Cole Winn | TEX | 19 | N/A | 97mph | |
42 | Deivi Garcia | NYY | 19 | Double-A | 96mph | |
43 | Lewis Thorpe | MIN | 23 | Triple-A | 2015 | 94mph |
44 | Jay Groome | BOS | 20 | Single-A | 2018 | 95mph |
45 | D.L. Hall | BAL | 20 | Single-A | 96mph | |
46 | Michel Baez | SDP | 23 | Double-A | 98mph | |
47 | Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | 27 | N/A | 96mph | |
48 | Justin Dunn | SEA | 23 | Double-A | 95mph | |
49 | Justus Sheffield | SEA | 23 | MLB | 97mph | |
50 | Corbin Martin | HOU | 23 | Double-A | 97mph | |
51 | J.B. Bukauskas | HOU | 22 | Double-A | 98mph | |
52 | Jonathan Loaisiga | NYY | 24 | MLB | 2015 | 98mph |
53 | Luis Gil | NYY | 20 | Rookie | 101mph | |
54 | Franklin Perez | DET | 21 | High-A | 96mph | |
55 | Jose De Leon | TBR | 26 | MLB | 2018 | 95mph |
56 | Griffin Canning | LAA | 22 | Triple-A | 94mph | |
57 | Cal Quantil | SDP | 24 | Triple-A | 2015 | 94mph |
58 | Sandy Gaston | TBR | 17 | N/A | 97mph | |
59 | Colin Poche | TBR | 25 | Triple-A | 2015 | 94mph |
60 | Darwinzon Hernandez | BOS | 22 | Double-A | 98mph | |
61 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | 21 | Rookie | 2016 | 100mph |
62 | Ronny Henriquez | TEX | 18 | Rookie | 98mph | |
63 | David Paulino | TOR | 25 | MLB | 2013 | 95mph |
64 | Lenny Torres | CLE | 18 | Rookie | 98mph | |
65 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 21 | N/A | 97mph | |
66 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | 19 | Rookie | 98mph | |
67 | Starlyn Castillo | PHI | 17 | N/A | 97mph | |
68 | Enyel De Los Santos | PHI | 23 | MLB | 95mph | |
69 | Dennis Santana | LAD | 22 | MLB | 98mph | |
70 | Jordan Holloway | MIA | 22 | Single-A | 2017 | 99mph |
71 | Spencer Howard | PHI | 22 | Single-A | 95mph | |
72 | Cionel Perez | HOU | 22 | MLB | 98mph | |
73 | Daniel Ponce De Leon | STL | 27 | MLB | 94mph | |
74 | Nick Neidert | MIA | 22 | Double-A | 95mph | |
75 | Dean Kremer | BAL | 23 | Double-A | 96mph | |
76 | Kyle Muller | ATL | 21 | Double-A | 95mph | |
77 | Joe Palumbo | TEX | 24 | Double-A | 2017 | 96mph |
78 | Thomas Szapucki | NYM | 22 | Single-A | 2018 | 97mph |
79 | Michael King | NYY | 23 | Triple-A | 95mph | |
80 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 23 | MLB | 96mph | |
81 | Sean Reid-Foley | TOR | 23 | MLB | 97mph | |
82 | Dane Dunning | CHW | 24 | Double-A | Warning signs | 96mph |
83 | Ryan Weathers | SDP | 19 | Single-A | 95mph | |
84 | Keegan Akin | BAL | 23 | Double-A | 95mph | |
85 | Dakota Hudson | STL | 24 | MLB | 98mph | |
86 | Genesis Cabrera | STL | 22 | Triple-A | 98mph | |
87 | Ryan Helsley | STL | 24 | Triple-A | 97mph | |
88 | Jose Castillo | SDP | 23 | MLB | Warning signs | 97mph |
89 | Ty Buttrey | LAA | 25 | MLB | 98mph | |
90 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | 24 | Double-A | 100mph | |
91 | Zac Lowther | BAL | 22 | High-A | 91mph | |
92 | Durbin Feltman | BOS | 21 | High-A | 99mph | |
93 | Kevin Ginkel | ARI | 24 | Triple-A | 96mph | |
94 | Ray Black | SFG | 28 | MLB | Warning signs | 100mph |
95 | Ian Hamilton | CHW | 23 | Triple-A | 95mph | |
96 | Gerson Bautista | SEA | 23 | MLB | 100mph | |
97 | Erik Swanson | SEA | 25 | Triple-A | Warning signs | 97mph |
98 | Brailyn Marquez | CHC | 20 | Single-A | 99mph | |
99 | Tyler Ivey | HOU | 22 | High-A | 95mph | |
100 | Shane Baz | TBR | 19 | Rookie | 98mph | |
101 | Anderson Espinoza | SDP | 20 | Single-A | 2017 | 97mph |
102 | Joey Wentz | ATL | 21 | High-A | 93mph | |
103 | Peter Solomon | HOU | 22 | High-A | 96mph | |
104 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | 21 | Single-A | 2017 | 94mph |
105 | Trey Riley | ATL | 20 | Rookie | 97mph | |
106 | Alec Hansen | CHW | 24 | Double-A | 99mph | |
107 | Sam Hentges | CLE | 22 | High-A | 2016 | 96mph |
108 | Ryan Rolison | COL | 21 | Rookie | 93mph | |
109 | Josiah Gray | LAD | 21 | Rookie | 97mph | |
110 | Beau Burrows | DET | 22 | Double-A | 94mph | |
111 | Tahnaj Thomas | PIT | 19 | Rookie | 96mph | |
112 | Simeon Woods-Richardson | NYM | 18 | Rookie | 95mph | |
113 | Sam Carlson | SEA | 20 | N/A | 2018 | 97mph |
114 | Luis Palacios | MIA | 18 | Rookie | 95mph | |
115 | Jayson Schroeder | HOU | 19 | Rookie | 97mph | |
116 | Adbert Alzolay | CHC | 24 | Triple-A | 98mph | |
117 | Adam Kloffenstein | TOR | 18 | Rookie | 96mph | |
118 | Jonathan Hernandez | TEX | 22 | Double-A | 99mph | |
119 | Jordan Yamamotto | MIA | 22 | Double-A | 92mph | |
120 | Hunter Harvey | BAL | 24 | Double-A | 2016 | 97mph |
121 | Jackson Kowar | KCR | 22 | Single-A | 97mph | |
122 | Dakaota Mekkes | CHC | 24 | Triple-A | 93mph | |
123 | Yadier Alvarez | LAD | 22 | Double-A | 101mph | |
124 | Jairo Solis | HOU | 19 | High-A | 2018 | 97mmp |
125 | Framber Valdez | HOU | 25 | MLB | 94mph | |
126 | Jackson Kowar | KCR | 22 | Single-A | 97mph | |
127 | Ryan Feltner | COL | 22 | Rookie | 97mph | |
128 | Kris Bubic | KCR | 21 | Rookie | 93mph | |
129 | Chris Rodriguez | LAA | 20 | Single-A | 98mph | |
130 | James Kaprielian | OAK | 25 | High-A | 2017 | 99mph |
131 | Jorge Guzman | MIA | 23 | High-A | 103mph | |
132 | Stiward Aquino | LAA | 19 | Rookie | 2017 | 96mph |
133 | Mitchell White | LAD | 24 | Double-A | 2013 | 97mph |
134 | Jhoan Duran | MIN | 21 | Single-A | 96mph | |
135 | Michael Grove | LAD | 22 | N/A | 2017 | 96mph |
136 | Aaron Ashby | MIL | 20 | Single-A | 96mph | |
137 | Zach Willeman | LAD | 22 | Single-A | 2017 | 100mph |
138 | Carlos Hernandez | KCR | 21 | Single-A | 97mph | |
139 | Justin Steele | CHC | 23 | Double-A | 2017 | 98mph |
140 | Yefri Del Rosario | KCR | 19 | Single-A | 97mph | |
141 | Robinson Ortiz | LAD | 19 | Rookie | 95mph | |
142 | Edwin Uceta | LAD | 21 | High-A | 95mph | |
143 | Gerardo Carrillo | LAD | 20 | Single-A | 97mph | |
144 | Trey Supak | MIL | 22 | Double-A | 95mph | |
145 | Braden Webb | MIL | 23 | Double-A | 2014 | 95mph |
146 | Franklyn Kilome | NYM | 23 | Double-A | 2018 | 95mph |
147 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | 23 | Rookie | 2017 | 96mph |
148 | Luis Medina | NYY | 19 | Rookie | 102mph | |
149 | Osiel Rodriguez | NYY | 17 | N/A | 97mph | |
150 | Zack Brown | MIL | 24 | Double-A | 95mph | |
151 | Brock Burke | TEX | 22 | Double-A | 96mph | |
152 | Alex Faedo | DET | 23 | Double-A | 95mph | |
153 | Braylan Perez | SEA | 18 | Rookie | 93mph | |
154 | Mauricio Llovera | PHI | 22 | High-A | 97mph | |
155 | Lazaro Estrada | TOR | 19 | Rookie | No info available | |
156 | Albert Abreu | NYY | 23 | Double-A | 101mph | |
157 | Owen White | TEX | 19 | N/A | 95mph | |
158 | Cole Ragans | TEX | 21 | Low-A | 2016 | 95mph |
159 | Victor Santos | PHI | 18 | Rookie | 93mph | |
160 | Parker Dunshee | OAK | 24 | Double-A | 91mph | |
161 | Hogan Harris | OAK | 22 | N/A | Warning signs | 93mph |
162 | Aaron Hernandez | LAA | 22 | N/A | 98mph | |
163 | Jordan Balazovic | MIN | 20 | Single-A | 95mph | |
164 | Mason Denaburg | WAS | 19 | N/A | Warning signs | 95mph |
165 | Osvaldo Hernandez | SDP | 20 | Single-A | 96mph | |
166 | David Peterson | NYM | 23 | High-A | 93mph | |
167 | Brandon Bielak | HOU | 22 | Double-A | 94mph | |
168 | David McKay | SEA | 23 | Double-A | 96mph | |
169 | Joey Gerber | SEA | 21 | Single-A | 97mph | |
170 | Patrick Murphy | TOR | 23 | Double-A | Warning signs | 97mph |
171 | Richard Gallardo | CHC | 17 | N/A | 93mph | |
172 | Kyle Cody | TEX | 25 | High-A | 2018 | 98mph |
173 | Luis Oviedo | CLE | 19 | Single-A | 98mph | |
174 | Hector Perez | TOR | 22 | Double-A | 99mph | |
175 | Zack Burdi | CHW | 24 | Triple-A | 2017 | 100mph |
176 | Travis MacGregor | PIT | 21 | Single-A | 2018 | 97mph |
177 | Michael Plassmeyer | TBR | 22 | Low-A | 92mph | |
178 | Wyatt Marks | OAK | 23 | High-A | 92mph | |
179 | Jaison Vilera | NYM | 21 | Low-A | 90mph | |
180 | Brady Feigl | OAK | 23 | Single-A | 2016 | 92mph |
181 | Jake Wong | SFG | 22 | Low-A | 97mph | |
182 | Dillon Tate | BAL | 24 | Double-A | 94mph | |
183 | Tony Santillan | CIN | 21 | Double-A | 97mph | |
184 | Bobby Wahl | MIL | 26 | MLB | 98mph | |
185 | Kolby Allard | ATL | 21 | MLB | 93mph | |
186 | Luis Escobar | PIT | 22 | Double-A | 95mph | |
187 | Wil Crowe | WAS | 24 | Double-A | 2015 | 95mph |
188 | Tyler Phillips | TEX | 21 | High-A | 93mph | |
189 | Taylor Hearn | PIT | 24 | Double-A | 98mph | |
190 | Jordan Sheffield | LAD | 23 | High-A | 2013 | 97mph |
191 | Yoan Lopez | ARI | 26 | Double-A | 99mph | |
192 | Williams Jerez | LAA | 26 | MLB | 97mph | |
193 | Tony Dibrell | NYM | 23 | Single-A | 93mph | |
194 | Trent Thornton | TOR | 25 | Triple-A | 97mph | |
195 | Griffin Roberts | STL | 22 | High-A | 97mph | |
196 | Nick Rumbelow | SEA | 27 | MLB | 2016 | 96mph |
197 | James Bourque | WAS | 25 | Double-A | 2015 | 98mph |
198 | Art Warren | SEA | 25 | Double-A | 99mph | |
199 | Chance Adams | NYY | 24 | MLB | 95mph | |
200 | Clay Holmes | PIT | 25 | Triple-A | 2014 | 97mph |