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Top 200 pitching prospects

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Is Tommy John a concern anymore?

Minor League Baseball: Arizona Fall League-All Star Game Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week, we gave you:

This surprised me. Of the 200 prospects on my list, 55 of them either have had Tommy John surgery or have significant warning signs of requiring it. In fact, 44 have already had the procedure. The top 100 are littered with Braves and Padres. But you’ll note, of the ten Braves on the top 200, none have had Tommy John.

Of the top eight prospects, seven have had Tommy John. They all throw pretty hard just like the number one prospect - Forrest Whitley. Does this concern you for Whitley’s short-term outlook?

Also of note, 18 of the top 200 prospects touch triple digits. 6 already have had Tommy John with concern over three more. So, in this small sample size, there is a correlation between bringing triple digit heat and having Tommy John.

To qualify for this list, you must be under 50 innings pitched in the major leagues. I’ve ignored all other qualifications for the purpose of simplicity.

You’ll note many of the usual suspects, but also some lesser known names such as Ronny Henriquez and Lazaro Estrada on the list who were part of an elite club last season. Noteworthy, Kevin Ginkel was part of the club as a reliever.

Debate the order of this list. Some may value upside, some my value safety. You may use basic statistics, advanced statistics, scouting reports, or the eye-test. These lists are made to debate. However, my goal was not to craft the perfect list, but to compile a comprehensive list which so happens to be my personal preference. Two pieces of information I am always looking for are previous Tommy John surgeries and maximum fastball velocity. I dive into other metrics of course, but those two facts are always relevant and not always available in a tabular form. Without further ado:

Top 200 Pitching Prospects

Rank Player Team Opening Day Age Highest Level Tommy John Max Velo
Rank Player Team Opening Day Age Highest Level Tommy John Max Velo
1 Forrest Whitley HOU 21 Double-A 100mph
2 Michael Kopech CHW 22 MLB 2018 100mph
3 Alex Reyes STL 24 MLB 2017 100mph
4 Jesus Luzardo OAK 21 Triple-A 2016 98mph
5 Dylan Cease CHW 23 Double-A 2014 100mph
6 Brent Honeywell TBR 23 Triple-A 2018 96mph
7 Chris Paddack SDP 23 Double-A 2016 96mph
8 A.J. Puk OAK 23 Double-A 2018 97mph
9 Mackenzie Gore SDP 20 Single-A 96mph
10 Luis Patino SDP 19 Single-A 98mph
11 Kyle Wright ATL 22 MLB 96mph
12 Matt Manning DET 21 Double-A 96mph
13 Michael Soroka ATL 21 MLB 94mph
14 Logan Allen SDP 21 Triple-A 94mph
15 Triston McKenzie CLE 21 Double-A 95mph
16 Brusdar Graterol MIN 20 High-A 2015 98mph
17 Hunter Greene CIN 19 Single-A Warning signs 102mph
18 Casey Mize DET 21 High-A Warning signs 97mph
19 Ian Anderson ATL 20 Double-A 96mph
20 Brendan McKay TBR 23 High-A 95mph
21 Corbin Burnes MIL 24 MLB 96mph
22 Jon Duplantier ARI 24 Double-A Warning signs 95mph
23 Taylor Widener ARI 24 Triple-A 94mph
24 Daniel Lynch KCR 22 Single-A 97mph
25 Matthew Liberatore TBR 19 Rookie 95mph
26 Adonis Medina PHI 22 High-A 96mph
27 Bryse Wilson ATL 21 MLB 98mph
28 Josh James HOU 25 MLB 97mph
29 Mitch Keller PIT 22 Triple-A 99mph
30 Nate Pearson TOR 22 High-A 104mph
31 Hans Crouse TEX 20 Single-A 99mph
32 Ethan Hankins CLE 18 Rookie 98mph
33 Bryan Abreu HOU 21 Single-A 96mph
34 Eric Pardinho TOR 18 Rookie 96mph
35 Adrian Morejon SDP 20 High-A 96mph
36 Touki Toussaint ATL 22 MLB 98mph
37 Dustin May LAD 21 Double-A 97mph
38 Luiz Gohara ATL 22 MLB 98mph
39 Sixto Sanchez MIA 20 High-A Warning signs 100mph
40 Brady Singer KCR 22 N/A 96mph
41 Cole Winn TEX 19 N/A 97mph
42 Deivi Garcia NYY 19 Double-A 96mph
43 Lewis Thorpe MIN 23 Triple-A 2015 94mph
44 Jay Groome BOS 20 Single-A 2018 95mph
45 D.L. Hall BAL 20 Single-A 96mph
46 Michel Baez SDP 23 Double-A 98mph
47 Yusei Kikuchi SEA 27 N/A 96mph
48 Justin Dunn SEA 23 Double-A 95mph
49 Justus Sheffield SEA 23 MLB 97mph
50 Corbin Martin HOU 23 Double-A 97mph
51 J.B. Bukauskas HOU 22 Double-A 98mph
52 Jonathan Loaisiga NYY 24 MLB 2015 98mph
53 Luis Gil NYY 20 Rookie 101mph
54 Franklin Perez DET 21 High-A 96mph
55 Jose De Leon TBR 26 MLB 2018 95mph
56 Griffin Canning LAA 22 Triple-A 94mph
57 Cal Quantil SDP 24 Triple-A 2015 94mph
58 Sandy Gaston TBR 17 N/A 97mph
59 Colin Poche TBR 25 Triple-A 2015 94mph
60 Darwinzon Hernandez BOS 22 Double-A 98mph
61 Shane McClanahan TBR 21 Rookie 2016 100mph
62 Ronny Henriquez TEX 18 Rookie 98mph
63 David Paulino TOR 25 MLB 2013 95mph
64 Lenny Torres CLE 18 Rookie 98mph
65 Logan Gilbert SEA 21 N/A 97mph
66 Grayson Rodriguez BAL 19 Rookie 98mph
67 Starlyn Castillo PHI 17 N/A 97mph
68 Enyel De Los Santos PHI 23 MLB 95mph
69 Dennis Santana LAD 22 MLB 98mph
70 Jordan Holloway MIA 22 Single-A 2017 99mph
71 Spencer Howard PHI 22 Single-A 95mph
72 Cionel Perez HOU 22 MLB 98mph
73 Daniel Ponce De Leon STL 27 MLB 94mph
74 Nick Neidert MIA 22 Double-A 95mph
75 Dean Kremer BAL 23 Double-A 96mph
76 Kyle Muller ATL 21 Double-A 95mph
77 Joe Palumbo TEX 24 Double-A 2017 96mph
78 Thomas Szapucki NYM 22 Single-A 2018 97mph
79 Michael King NYY 23 Triple-A 95mph
80 Sandy Alcantara MIA 23 MLB 96mph
81 Sean Reid-Foley TOR 23 MLB 97mph
82 Dane Dunning CHW 24 Double-A Warning signs 96mph
83 Ryan Weathers SDP 19 Single-A 95mph
84 Keegan Akin BAL 23 Double-A 95mph
85 Dakota Hudson STL 24 MLB 98mph
86 Genesis Cabrera STL 22 Triple-A 98mph
87 Ryan Helsley STL 24 Triple-A 97mph
88 Jose Castillo SDP 23 MLB Warning signs 97mph
89 Ty Buttrey LAA 25 MLB 98mph
90 Tony Gonsolin LAD 24 Double-A 100mph
91 Zac Lowther BAL 22 High-A 91mph
92 Durbin Feltman BOS 21 High-A 99mph
93 Kevin Ginkel ARI 24 Triple-A 96mph
94 Ray Black SFG 28 MLB Warning signs 100mph
95 Ian Hamilton CHW 23 Triple-A 95mph
96 Gerson Bautista SEA 23 MLB 100mph
97 Erik Swanson SEA 25 Triple-A Warning signs 97mph
98 Brailyn Marquez CHC 20 Single-A 99mph
99 Tyler Ivey HOU 22 High-A 95mph
100 Shane Baz TBR 19 Rookie 98mph
101 Anderson Espinoza SDP 20 Single-A 2017 97mph
102 Joey Wentz ATL 21 High-A 93mph
103 Peter Solomon HOU 22 High-A 96mph
104 Braxton Garrett MIA 21 Single-A 2017 94mph
105 Trey Riley ATL 20 Rookie 97mph
106 Alec Hansen CHW 24 Double-A 99mph
107 Sam Hentges CLE 22 High-A 2016 96mph
108 Ryan Rolison COL 21 Rookie 93mph
109 Josiah Gray LAD 21 Rookie 97mph
110 Beau Burrows DET 22 Double-A 94mph
111 Tahnaj Thomas PIT 19 Rookie 96mph
112 Simeon Woods-Richardson NYM 18 Rookie 95mph
113 Sam Carlson SEA 20 N/A 2018 97mph
114 Luis Palacios MIA 18 Rookie 95mph
115 Jayson Schroeder HOU 19 Rookie 97mph
116 Adbert Alzolay CHC 24 Triple-A 98mph
117 Adam Kloffenstein TOR 18 Rookie 96mph
118 Jonathan Hernandez TEX 22 Double-A 99mph
119 Jordan Yamamotto MIA 22 Double-A 92mph
120 Hunter Harvey BAL 24 Double-A 2016 97mph
121 Jackson Kowar KCR 22 Single-A 97mph
122 Dakaota Mekkes CHC 24 Triple-A 93mph
123 Yadier Alvarez LAD 22 Double-A 101mph
124 Jairo Solis HOU 19 High-A 2018 97mmp
125 Framber Valdez HOU 25 MLB 94mph
126 Jackson Kowar KCR 22 Single-A 97mph
127 Ryan Feltner COL 22 Rookie 97mph
128 Kris Bubic KCR 21 Rookie 93mph
129 Chris Rodriguez LAA 20 Single-A 98mph
130 James Kaprielian OAK 25 High-A 2017 99mph
131 Jorge Guzman MIA 23 High-A 103mph
132 Stiward Aquino LAA 19 Rookie 2017 96mph
133 Mitchell White LAD 24 Double-A 2013 97mph
134 Jhoan Duran MIN 21 Single-A 96mph
135 Michael Grove LAD 22 N/A 2017 96mph
136 Aaron Ashby MIL 20 Single-A 96mph
137 Zach Willeman LAD 22 Single-A 2017 100mph
138 Carlos Hernandez KCR 21 Single-A 97mph
139 Justin Steele CHC 23 Double-A 2017 98mph
140 Yefri Del Rosario KCR 19 Single-A 97mph
141 Robinson Ortiz LAD 19 Rookie 95mph
142 Edwin Uceta LAD 21 High-A 95mph
143 Gerardo Carrillo LAD 20 Single-A 97mph
144 Trey Supak MIL 22 Double-A 95mph
145 Braden Webb MIL 23 Double-A 2014 95mph
146 Franklyn Kilome NYM 23 Double-A 2018 95mph
147 Clarke Schmidt NYY 23 Rookie 2017 96mph
148 Luis Medina NYY 19 Rookie 102mph
149 Osiel Rodriguez NYY 17 N/A 97mph
150 Zack Brown MIL 24 Double-A 95mph
151 Brock Burke TEX 22 Double-A 96mph
152 Alex Faedo DET 23 Double-A 95mph
153 Braylan Perez SEA 18 Rookie 93mph
154 Mauricio Llovera PHI 22 High-A 97mph
155 Lazaro Estrada TOR 19 Rookie No info available
156 Albert Abreu NYY 23 Double-A 101mph
157 Owen White TEX 19 N/A 95mph
158 Cole Ragans TEX 21 Low-A 2016 95mph
159 Victor Santos PHI 18 Rookie 93mph
160 Parker Dunshee OAK 24 Double-A 91mph
161 Hogan Harris OAK 22 N/A Warning signs 93mph
162 Aaron Hernandez LAA 22 N/A 98mph
163 Jordan Balazovic MIN 20 Single-A 95mph
164 Mason Denaburg WAS 19 N/A Warning signs 95mph
165 Osvaldo Hernandez SDP 20 Single-A 96mph
166 David Peterson NYM 23 High-A 93mph
167 Brandon Bielak HOU 22 Double-A 94mph
168 David McKay SEA 23 Double-A 96mph
169 Joey Gerber SEA 21 Single-A 97mph
170 Patrick Murphy TOR 23 Double-A Warning signs 97mph
171 Richard Gallardo CHC 17 N/A 93mph
172 Kyle Cody TEX 25 High-A 2018 98mph
173 Luis Oviedo CLE 19 Single-A 98mph
174 Hector Perez TOR 22 Double-A 99mph
175 Zack Burdi CHW 24 Triple-A 2017 100mph
176 Travis MacGregor PIT 21 Single-A 2018 97mph
177 Michael Plassmeyer TBR 22 Low-A 92mph
178 Wyatt Marks OAK 23 High-A 92mph
179 Jaison Vilera NYM 21 Low-A 90mph
180 Brady Feigl OAK 23 Single-A 2016 92mph
181 Jake Wong SFG 22 Low-A 97mph
182 Dillon Tate BAL 24 Double-A 94mph
183 Tony Santillan CIN 21 Double-A 97mph
184 Bobby Wahl MIL 26 MLB 98mph
185 Kolby Allard ATL 21 MLB 93mph
186 Luis Escobar PIT 22 Double-A 95mph
187 Wil Crowe WAS 24 Double-A 2015 95mph
188 Tyler Phillips TEX 21 High-A 93mph
189 Taylor Hearn PIT 24 Double-A 98mph
190 Jordan Sheffield LAD 23 High-A 2013 97mph
191 Yoan Lopez ARI 26 Double-A 99mph
192 Williams Jerez LAA 26 MLB 97mph
193 Tony Dibrell NYM 23 Single-A 93mph
194 Trent Thornton TOR 25 Triple-A 97mph
195 Griffin Roberts STL 22 High-A 97mph
196 Nick Rumbelow SEA 27 MLB 2016 96mph
197 James Bourque WAS 25 Double-A 2015 98mph
198 Art Warren SEA 25 Double-A 99mph
199 Chance Adams NYY 24 MLB 95mph
200 Clay Holmes PIT 25 Triple-A 2014 97mph