I’ve found this be a recurrent theme. The players I keep drafting is not a Round 1-5 endeavor. Instead its something that happens after you’ve exhausted the elite and are not in good territory. This “good” territory is like the wild west, where the current “ADP” and the difference of 20-30 spots is much more of a “guideline” than anything concrete. If you took Mike Trout at No. 3 people would be up in arms; however, if you took Jose Peraza at 130 vs. 110, is anyone really blinking an eye? A large part of this is due to the fact that everyone in that general “100 and up” territory has some kind of issue that makes everyone pause. It comes down to what can you see past and what you cannot see past.
Given my appetite and what I like this year, below are five players outside the top-100 in ADP that I continue to grab in each of my drafts so far.
#1. Miguel Cabrera. (ADP 150-160)
I highlighted him in my bold predictions column. Quite frankly, I get that he is 35 years old, but I refuse to accept that the last two seasons (when he was noticeably battling some serious back issues) are what we can expect from a triple crown winner. I’m not saying he is the 44 home run, 139 RBI, .330 avg player from 2012, but he is DEFINITELY NOT the 16 HR, 60 RBI .249 player from 2017, either. It is very reasonable to expect him to hit 25+ homers, 80+ runs, 90+ RBIs, and to have an average north of .280. He is currently past pick 150 in drafts, but he could easily return top-75 production.
Miguel Cabrera broke out the hidden-ball trick in spring training, and it worked! https://t.co/OhMcXkEFPXpic.twitter.com/xwPVkpd1gL— For The Win (@ForTheWin) March 11, 2019
#2. Billy Hamilton. (ADP 160-170)
This is a player who can single-handedly solve your stolen base issues (especially on a Kansas City squad who is not afraid to run) with one pick outside the top-150. Additionally, he has played above 130 games in each of the last two seasons, he has scored over 70 runs, stolen over 30 bases, and had over 500 AB. His batting average is the big question, as he was once .260 but he has since slipped to .236. If he can hit north of .250 and single-handedly hold down one category for you, I say take him around 150 in your drafts. Side note: I like to murmur to myself “you have one job” every time I draft him.
#3. Garrett Hampson. (ADP 195-210)
The brief injury scare was not legitimate, as he was back the very next day. There is risk that Ryan McMahon takes the starting gig for Colorado at second base, but the more I read the more it seems like Hampson is the favorite to take the gig. This is a player currently slotted late who had three runs, 4 RBIs, 2 stolen bases, and a .275 batting average across 40 at-bats. If you pulled that small sample into a full season it’s 38 runs and 50 RBIs, which is very lackluster if you ask me. Three things in his favor, though. One, he would have had 25 stolen bases at a full season, and that plus a .275 batting average is something that only eight players did last year. Second, Spring Training has treated Garrett well, with 11 runs scored. Third, he counts as both a shortstop and a second baseman, and the keystone is an area where it goes dry and Hampson would be an admirable fill-in at that spot. He leads spring training with six stolen bases, and in addition to that, he has three home runs. Yes, it’s just spring training numbers, but it’s a promising start.
#4. Matt Strahm. (ADP 260-280)
First, he counts as a starter and a reliever in a number of formats. Second, looking at his career, we have seen two seasons with a sub 2.50 ERA and one season with a 5.45 ERA. Spring Training started off bad but Strahm has rebounded, as he now holds a 3.75 ERA and 1.167 WHIP across 12 innings pitched. He has no home runs allowed, 15 strikeouts, and only four walks (so a 3.75 K/BB). What I think you can expect from Matt this season: 120 IP, eight wins, 130 SO, 40 walks, and a WHIP below 1.20.
Wow, Matt Strahm just went for the same price as MadBum in the @ottoneu Experts League. Guess he's not a sleeper anymore.— Jeff Erickson (@Jeff_Erickson) March 15, 2019
#5 Francisco Mejia. (ADP 210-220)
For context here, his ADP puts him after the following Catchers: Wellington Castillo, Mike Zunino, Danny Jansen, Yadier Molina, Willson Contreras, Yasmani Grandal, Gary Sanchez, JT Realmuto, Buster Posey and Wilson Ramos. This is likely due to the fact that he is currently a backup catcher in San Diego sitting behind Austin Hedges AND due to the fact that he has yet to hit above the Mendoza line at the MLB level. With all of that said, this prospect is 23 years old, had a 50-game hitting streak in the minors, batted .293 with 68 RBIs, 14 homers, and 54 runs across 110 games at Triple-A last year—and he’s currently batting .400 with 11 RBIs, three homers, and five runs across 13 spring training games.
Which of these five will you be going after?
This poll is closed
None of them!