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World Golf Championship – Mexico Championship: Expert Picks

Stick to Dustin again this year at WGC Mexico Championship

World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship - Final Round

Tournament Information:

WGC – Mexico Championship
Date: February 21st – 24th
Course: Club de Golf Chapultepec
Purse - $10.2MM ($1.7MM to winner)
FedEx points – 550 to winner
2018 Winner: Phil Mickelson (-16)


Club de Golf Chapultepec. Built over the course of a few years by Willie Smith and Alex Smith it officially opened in 1928. The course is 7,267 feet long with a mixture of different holes and trees lining most fairways. This course is on high elevation (7,800 feet above sea level) to put this in reference, California averages 2,900 feet above sea level and Florida averages 100 feet above sea level, this is more than twice that height. It has a par 5 converted to long 4 due to the elevation as well as some dog legs and hole one even has two separate greens. This tournament will favor the shots gained candidates especially greens in regulation as they stretch the distance

World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship - Final Round

My Starting 4

Dustin Johnson (2nd selection this year) — I’m pretty sure I’ve selected him here each of the last two years for good reason. His last four years have ALL been top 15 finishes. With such an elite field, he is as likely as you will find to a sure thing to finish in the top 10.

Rory McIlroy (1st selection this year) — I WOULD say the same thing that I said for Dustin for Rory but he did not play here last year so it will be two years since he’s seen a course with this much elevation. 2015-2017 showed top 10 finishes each year and he comes here with a great 4th place finish last week at the Genesis Open. Rory is currently 22nd on the tour in driving distance and 7th on the tour in eagles.

Genesis Open - Final Round Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Phil Mickelson (3rd selection this year) — Phil is a top 10 finisher each of the last three years at this WGC. After winning AT&T Pebble beach two weeks ago he was 37th at the Riviera last weekend. He is currently 29th in driving distance and 13th in strokes gained approaching the green.

Justin Thomas (1st selection this year) — If not for a missed putt on 17 last week which would have likely created a playoff, Justin was a hair away from the potential to win at the Genesis last week. He has been a top five finisher each of the last two years at Chapultepec. He’s 1st in strokes gained approaching the green, 1st in strokes gained tee to green and 1st in strokes gained total.

My Bench 2

Bubba Watson (2nd selection this year) — Three out of his last four years, Bubba has been a top 10 recipient at this WGC event. He finished 4th at the Waste Management Open earlier this month and 15th at the Genesis Open last week. He’s 16th in driving distance and 3rd in strokes gained off the tee.

Tommy Fleetwood (1st selection this year) — He has been a top 15 finisher each of the last two years here. He has not missed a cut this season but he also only has one top 25 finish across his three tournaments which, for him, is below his PGA average. He’s 9th in strokes gained tee to green, 20th in strokes gained approaching the green and 29th in total strokes gained.

2018 Stats

Starting 4: Avg Finish 42nd place (32nd percentile)
Bench 2: Avg Finish 65th place (50th percentile)

Fun Factoid: This tournament, originating in 1999, played in a different US and European city for the first 8 years.


Will one of the above six golfers win this weekend?

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